Welcome to The Profits form guide for 12 December 2015 at Flemington. We seem to have struck the bad rides as of late getting stuck in traffic and flying late to just miss. Hopefully this trend is done away with today at Flemington and our new system stands up on the track there. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Burning Front @ $3.65 or 3 units to win. Gracious Prospect @ $5.00 for 1.5 units to win.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Tashbeeh @ $2.80 for 2.5 units to win. King’s Dance @ $12.50 for 0.5 units to win.
Best Value
Flemington Race 1 – Kalabek @ $17/$4.40 for 1 unit Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 9, 10, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – First Response Pharmacy Trophy
1. Tykiato: Two solid runs this prep. Blocked for runs last start. In well at this grade all things considered from the barrier. First time down straight the issue.
2. Down The Hatch: Every chance last start at MV from the back and just beaten 0.3L 4th. Much better suited by the straight race today but it is her first attempt at track.
3. Kalabek: Close run 2nd two back in mares grade to Whistle Baby. Ignore last start when not on speed. Has the ability.
4. Petite’s Reward: Strong win last start in easier class at Moonee Valley over the distance. Different jockey. Only run at track was a fail.
5. Shakespearean Lass: Nice enough run 2nd as favourite last start in easier grade at Pakenham. Going well enough to suggest she is running well. Nice barrier. 2 runs at Flemington 0 places.
6. Bella Capri: 1 placing at course in the past and seems to always run well enough really at this track. First up and really an unknown back in this grade. Respect.
7. Miss Gidget: Shown nothing since her win at Seymour first up in maiden class. Has to improve.
8. Lahqa: Decent enough on-speed run to finish last start in easier grade. Can make the step up you would expect.
9. Stella The Boss: Maiden only winner. Failed last start in easier grade.
10. Peritus: Maiden winner in only fair time at Bairnsdale last start. Looks like the type that will handle the straight.
Comments: Rough race to open the day but thank god it isn’t a maiden or 2YO race. It’s hard to look past Kalabek with the claim today off the Mares grade run two back.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Kalabek @ $17/$4.40 for 1 unit Each-Way
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Lola and Trish’s Handicap
2. Allergic: Every chance to finish last prep when a very solid 3rd to Delicacy over 2500m. First up today over 1400m, won his maiden by 10 lengths over 1740m. Never won at distance or course.
5. Mihany: Clear leader on paper, Won well two back at Cranbourne over 1200m just off the speed. Last start top weight on speed every chance at Bendigo last start. Harder here but rates well on previous runs and at the weights.
6. A Lotta Love: Won well enough last start at Balarat off a low weight. Up 2kg today. Beat some handy horses there. Harder class but rates well enough 2nd up up to 1400m.
7. Not A Happy Camper: Average time run at Bendigo last start but was a fair enough win. Up in class. Needs to improve again. D Oliver jumps off.
8. Mr Pago: Started a short price favourite at Sale first up. Up to 1400m better suited. Needs to improve on first up run but obviously a good enough horse. Has run well at track previously.
9. Abohar: 3YO 2nd to finish last prep up at Doomben. First up run in harder class ran well for 5th doing a lot run. Going well enough and stays on notice here.
10. Divine Mr Artie: Scratched from last night at MV to run here today. Last two runs good enough to suggest he is in winning form. Ran well only run at course previously. Up to 1400m ideal.
11. Rock Spur: Every chance last start at Bendigo and just poor to the line. Better weighted. Goes well at track.
Comments: A rough race to bet into. Mihany has the ratings to be winning this while A Lotta Love also looks well in at the weights all previous runs considered. Mr Pago is probably a big price based on up in distance when went around favourite last start while Divine Mr Artie isn’t winning but continues to run well. Value the only way to play.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Mihany @ $9.8 and Mr Pago @ $15 to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1200m – Lanec Handicap
1. Badajoz: Every chance last start at Canterbury but still found one too good. Has to improve to win this.
2. Antelucan: Second up over 1400m last start at Sandown ran very well in harder class just beaten 3rd. Back to 1200m and looks well weighted. Barrier only issue.
3. Gold Busker: Found very little leading first up at MV. Previous preps ran pretty well but hasn’t been at his best since this time last year.
4. I Bought a Horse: Nice BM-64 win last start at Cranbourne from off the speed. Has to improve from the back again today but obviously a good horse on a good track.
8. Hetuka Zarsho: Very Green last start when winning at Kilmore. Can improve on here but needs to settle and enjoy the straight.
10. Downhearted: Good 2YO maiden win then failed the next start at course on a soft track. Forgive run. Probably wants further but can run very well.
11. Niccoco: Good maiden win two back at Morphetville. Last start well beaten but obviously good run at Moonee Valley. Has to improve but has the class.
12. Tyrannize: Average 0.1L win in maiden class at Bendigo. Much harder here.
13. Heza Jolly Swagman: How is this running here off the first up run!?!
Comments: Horrible race to bet into. Wide open.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Hetuka Zarsho Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Building Engineering Trophy
2. Red Bomber: Found nothing first up over 1200m but wasn’t a real surprise. Top weight here over more suitable distance. Need to see the run before backing if i’m honest.
3. Star Rolling: Hasn’t won in yonks. Hasn’t run well in yonks either. First up nada. Not here surely?
4. Gracious Prospect: WFA-G3 3rd back to Open class today over similar distance. Consistent type that just keeps running well. Good barrier will be on speed.
5. Honorius: poor first up record especially recently. Hasn’t won in a long time and can’t see it here over this distance.
6. Burning Front: Continues to run well having missed just one place in the last 16 runs. Won a strong race in similar class last start and a Group 3 previous to that. Still very well weighted here all things considered, can’t understand it!
7. Chile Express: First up run was better than it seemed on paper. Going very well this prep based on first up run. Can run well.
8. Precious Gem: Horrible last start at Sandown. Rate on two back run at Flemington over 1700m when 0.3L 2nd to Zarzali.
9. Siegestor: Running well as normal but finds one too good to win. Will occur again today based on first up.
10. Dan Zephyr: Every chance last start at Pakenham but fell 1.8L short. Poorly weighted.
Comments: Very keen on Burning Front here while Gracious Prospect can also be backed to secure a strong result on the race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Back Burning Front for 3 units @ $3.65. Back Gracious Prospect for 1.5 unit at $5.
Flemington Race 5 – 2000m – Western Health / Adamo Cafe Cup
1. Our Voodoo Prince: A horse we owe nothing to after winning two of his last three races at $6 and $9+. 2000m. Only run at Flemington a win as well. Weighted fairly.
2. Good Value: Two back poor run at Caulfield a forgive. Last start just not enough turn of foot. Not sure up to 2000m is the key.
3. Black Jag: Strong run 2nd last start at Sandown when improved on previous runs. Up to 2000m looks well enough to be winning here.
4. Longeron: Running well and not winning. hasn’t gone close all prep yet running well. Not for mine on record.
5. Second Bullet: Strong run 3rd to Our Voodoo Prince last start at Pakenham in the cup. Previous runs 0.8L 3rd and 0.8L 2nd to good types in BM-84 grade. Meets Voodoo 1kg better today and good barrier.
6. Straight Jacket: Horrible last two starts. Good runs two previous to that. Hard to rate… may need it wet.
7. Nisos: Too poor to back here today on previous runs.
8. Slade De Cerisy: Close runs last two starts. Up to 2000m obviously ideal, but others appeal more to me.
Comments: Odds suggest a wide-open race and our figures suggest it also. Black Jag has the most upside up to 2000m today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Black Jag to win.
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – Plenary Group Handicap
1. Seul Spirit: Nice enough run last start at Kilmore but had every possible chance and not good enough. Not for me.
2. Zenithal: Good win over similar at Cranbourne last start. Deserves the weight. Well rated.
3. Bajour: Open class 4th over in NZ previously. Nice enough win two back at Geelong but last start found little at Ballarat. Bounce back.
4. Trendsetter: On speed runner today, nice win over Sammy the Snake two back and then sir berus last start. Goes well at distance.
5. Crimson Cape: Sale winner over Hipster Girl last start on a track with a bit of bias as is normal in Vic. Respect on that but has to improve.
6. McNulty: Long time between drinks for him. First prep bank failed to deliver on the field just yet.
7. Aurum Spirit: Long way beaten the last 15 races. Last start a step back from 4/5 weeks back bar fights.
8. Savvy Henry: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Finds a wind when 2000m+ is interestingly.
9. Tucano: French import who has failed to win or place both starts. Has been backed.
10. War Point: Hasn’t been the same this prep. Continues to run well but never allowed to touch.
11. Chasing Glory: Nice run and win last start at Bendigo with the pace on. Big win there for you!
12. Solas: Big win two back at Kyneton. Last start at Donald rider lost whip but was beaten a long way out.
13. I’m A Tiger: Close 2nd to Turbo Street at Bendigo. Good form. Hard to suggest otherwise.
14. Hisper Girl: Nice run from back last start at Sale and finished 2nd. Has to improve but has ability to win.
15. Flying Light: Well backed last start and just missed. Speed was on and looks suited to that with Mahuta/Kracken style channels popping up.
Comments: Another wide to finish the meeting. Think the Favourite has this one to lose from the barrier.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 9, 10, 13, 15
Strategy: Flying Light to win
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – AVHPA VIC Trophy
1. Tashbeeh: Close 2nd in Group 3 company to Charmed Harmony last start at Sandown. Previous run measured up behind form horse Malaguerra. Up to 1600m certainly suitable. Goes well at track and distance is suitable. Claim essential. Midfield run from barrier.
2. Orion: Horrible last start after an okay run first up. Has to improve on two runs to date to be measuring up here for mine.
3. Priority Road: On his day he is a good 1600m horse. Four runs this prep and shown little to suggest he is up to this.
4. Sadaqa: Continues to run well out the front but won’t be breaking through at this class today at this track at the weights on last two runs.
5. Kingdom of Dreams: Talented Horse Two preps back. Last prep was horrible. Three runs this prep and continues to improve this prep but hard to suggest a win on what we have seen. 6 runs 0 places at track even only managed 4th as $2.80 favourite at track.
6. Turnitaround: Goes very well at this track. Continues to run strong races and is hardly ever outside a place. Two runs in this prep though have been horrid compared to previous preps starts. Hard to rate today.
7. King’s Dance: Strong run second to talented type in Master Reset last start. Previous run on softer surface was good at course and distance in harder company. Weighted nicely here.
8. The New Boy: Horror he got a win two back. Up to Rosehill and well beaten but was still a nice run. Could have another win in him but not convinced it’s at Flemington.
9. Wrotham Heath: Two runs this prep and both terrible. Due to turn form around but not here.
10. Oltre Finito: Last prep proved to be a handy middle range type. Two runs this prep well beaten both attempts. Not for me.
11. Belorum: Did a lot wrong last start at Mooene Valley and ran well for 3rd. Has ability but doesn’t win out of turn.
12. Clemo: Nice enough run 2nd at Ballarat but Show A Star was well beaten since.
Comments: Very keen on two stand out runners here in Tashbeeh and King’s Dance.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 7
Strategy: 2.5 units Tashbeeh @ $2.80 to win. 0.5 units King’s Dance @ $12.50 to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1200m – Western Health Foundation Handicap
1. Churchill Dancer: Last start at Flemington 1000m too short for mine when ran well but fairly beaten at MV. Will appreciate step up in distance back to Flemington. Can win with claim.
2. Ihtsahymn: Not run well at this distance in a long time. Has won at distance and first up previously. Only run at Flemington was disappointing. Hard to have for mine.
3. British General: Ran well from off the speed first up at Ballarat. Will be on speed today from a better barrier and looks to have come back well.
4. Sistine Demon: Out the back first up and suited by tempo. 2nd up this prep and will be running at Flemington today. Has ability.
5. Hard Stride: Well beaten all prep. Take on.
6. Decircles: Last prep found very little until later into prep. Best not first up or over this distance.
7. Nicoscene: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley when had every possible chance. Not come back the best way this prep.
8. Pago Rock: Needs a break? Horrible last two runs and due a strong run. Nicely weighted with Jackie Beriman onboard. Believe.
9. Durendal: Good win over Society Man last start at Ballarat and the same has been done to Society Man’s owners since as well. Needs a good run.
10. Sarajevo: Every chance and horrible last start at Flemington. Still has to be respected back to a Good track.
11. Boomwaa: Pulled hard first up and never allowed to finish off. Only a fair run. Has to improve.
13. Berlutti: Didn’t beat much last start at Ballarat winning a BM-70. Has to improve.
14. Nordic Empire: Old mate hasn’t won in a long time. Been single figures the last 6 defeats. Has to improve on those runs.
15. Zupacharged: Disappointing last start. Can’t see the improvement required on that run.
Comments: Very hard race to rate. Churchill Dancer appeals at the $5.50. Hard race to get the winner, lots of options.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Churchill Dancer to win
Flemington Race 9 – 1700m – Metricon Trophy
1. Sabor A Triunfo: Well beaten all last prep. Best run 2.3L 4th in Group 3 behind Sertorius. Not at this distance.
2. Mamwaazel: Good enough run last start but well beaten. Looking for improvement here.
4. To Be Honest: First up run not terrible at Moonee Valley. Certainly needs the run today on last start run. Place chance?
5. Quicksilver Lass: CL4 winner up at Gold Coast and two runs back in Melb hasn’t measured up. Take on.
6. Inishowen: Well beaten last four starts in easier class. Liability.
7. Sari: Well beaten last three starts in harder company by a few with similar form lines. Has to improve.
8. Ring Da Belle: Not a terrible run last start, but simply didn’t handle the track. two previous runs good enough to win.
9. Winta Chiller: Nice win off the speed last start at Pakenham picking them all up late with distance to 3rd. Take a training effort that’s for sure.
10. Yellen: Huge win last start at Moonee Valley from just off the speed. Good barrier and wide barrier will mean every chance in running.
11. Felicienne: Won an easy enough race last start at Moonee Valley. Measured up well previous runs. Has to improve but looks on the up.
12. Sea Spray: Always jumps poorly and costs herself the race. Day we don’t back is the day she jumps well!
13. Nippinski: R-58 winner for a reason.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. hard to go past Yellen on that last start run at MV.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Yellen to win.
