Welcome to The Profits form guide for 10 September 2016 at Flemington! Last week was a very good day at Moonee Valley with our form well and truly on the mark, but I can’t help be disappointed by the performance of the very best bets on the day, falling painfully short. We look towards a Flemington track which will get a bit of the sting out with a shower or two on Friday, but i’m predicting a dryer track than most with the drainage going to work Saturday morning. There are a few confident bets on the card and certainly a bit of value around to be had. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Black Heart Bart – 5 units @ $2.60 & Jacquinot Bay – 1 unit @ $26.
Next Best Bets
Flemington Race 1 – O’Lonera for 3 units @ $3.70
Flemington Race 9 – Royal Rapture – 2 units @ $6.00 & Gabella – 1 unit @ $10.
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Faatinah – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.15
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 13, 15
Leg Four: 3, 9, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 2500m – Sofitel Girls’ Day Out Handicap
2. Crafty Cruiser: Lacking in fitness first up when failed to fire at Moonee Valley and didn’t get home very well at all. Obviously much better suited up to this distance today but has never placed in 7 starts 2nd up.
3. Black Tomahawk: Looked home for all money on the turn last start at Moonee Valley but Refectory stuck on and fought him off. 6 lengths to 3rd which is worth considering… Barrier 4 will get him a dream run again today just off the leader and likes sting out of the ground. Has been costly for punters reecntly having not won in a while!
4. Try Four: Smashed a decent field last start at Morphetville on a heavy track back to 2400m after winning his maiden hurdle over 3200m. Previous start won over 2100m on heavy as well.. clearly wants the rail to come and wants the distance. Looks suited.
5. Refectory: Showed huge improvement last start at Moonee Valley to make it two wins on the trot. Will get a similar track condition today but this is another step up into harder racing again. Has ability and will run well, but does have an awkward barrier today.
6. Lucques: Three runs this prep and has failed to go close to a win. Last start was certainly his best run of the prep when 2L 4th on a soft track at Moonee Valley. Last win was at course and distance in a similar grade of race this deep into a prep also. Win wouldn’t shock.
7. O’lonera: Gone through the grades with three wins in a row this prep. Back up to 2500m will suit him much better today… won’t be getting away with an easy lead today but look back to the three back run and you realise just how versatile this horse really is. No issues with a bit of rail around and looks well in again today.
8. Manalapan: Three runs in this prep but has failed to get closer than 7 lengths. Clearly wanting the dryer surfaces and won’t be getting it today.
9. Authoritarian: Looks to be going forward again today after a freshen up. Won well two back at Moonee Valley on a soft track before failing in much easier grade last start. Certainly not on top at the weights today but has ability.
10. Spur on Gold: Quick backup does work wonders for this stable… but the run last start really was poor. His best is good enough to run okay here but I struggle to see it.
11. Riyadh: BM-64 grade winner last start beating some very average types. Really hard to suggest here.
12. White Dollar Sign: Beaten 9th last start in BM-78 grade. Big step up in distance and first time ever really. Not for me.
13. Coulson: Couldn’t place in BM-64 grade all three runs this prep.. beaten 84.85 lengths all three runs this prep.
Comments: A tricky race to start the day. I’m going to avoid Try Four today based on the track condition i’m expecting. I’m also looking to take on Black Tomahawk and Refectory on the last start runs, i just don’t think they were as good as they seemed. My eyes once again are all over O’Lonera who maps a peach from barrier 3… if Dunn leads or takes a sit, the horse will get every possible chance with its strong closing speed.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: O’Lonera for 3 units @ $3.70
Flemington Race 2 – 1100m – Cap D’Antibes Stakes
1. Missrock: Group 3 winner in her only run last prep beating a very nice field. Previous prep down the straight ran a fair 3rd so no issues today with the straight. Good barrier to get a nice run.
2. Flying Jess: Group 3 winner over in Adelaide last prep. Couldn’t win a maiden the previous four runs before that though so i’m not exactly convinced it’s the top class form lines. Better over further.
3. Happy Event: Coming into this today with 56 days between runs… won two solid enough races in a row up north at Sunshine Coast and Eagle Farm. Expect to be on speed today and suited once again by a solid tempo. Any rain will help chances.
4. My Country: Talented Snowden runner. Nice enough listed win at Eagle Farm last prep when had a strong run in race. First time down the straight… certainly an okay type but this is a big step up in class again. Has to be at her very best.
5. Selenia: Griffiths stable horse that got a win down the straight in Listed company last prep. Well back first up and ran home nicely for 6th. Respect she will improve onwards here and looks suited.
6. So Serene: Won well first up in maiden grade at Geelong beating an average bunch. Has gone down the straight previously and laid in but got home well late. Others preferred on best.
7. Kentucky Miss: Pride runner fourth up today after a solid enough 3rd behind Star Turn and 5th behind Derryn. Looks a nice type but barrier draw won’t help.
8. Kinetic Design: Forgive run first up at Caulfield. Only run at course was a very close 2nd behind Sweet Sherry. Has ability and expect better today.
9. Super Too: Won two in a row in much easier grades and on wetter surfaces out in the country. Last start win was a very sound win and the time was quite nice. Improvement needed onwards again but a win wouldn’t totally shock.
10. Najmaat: First run at the track. Last start ran well in Group 3 company for a 4th wide with cover the trip. Has to improve onwards and upwards but does have ability.
11. Want to Rock: Struggled first up at Sandown. Previous prep did win at Flemington as a early 2yo then failed the next two starts. Hard to have.
12. Ariaz: Nice run 2nd to Money Chaser last start at Sandown. Previous prep won a decent race at Sandown. Obviously a big jump up in class here but has ability to run nicely.
13. Vienna Waltz: Two runs this prep and hasn’t been close to a win. Really struggle to suggest the turn around required here even back to dryer.
14. Conscious: Still a maiden. Ran a nice enough 2nd behind Weatherly as a 2YO. Failed first up when battled home but didn’t find alot. Hard to suggest.
15. Getemhel: Strong maiden win first up at Geelong beating some average types. Has to improve significantly onwards.
16. Angasi: 0.1L heavy maiden win first up. Obviously a huge step up in class here and I can’t suggest her.
17. Social Status: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this.
18. Beyond the Dream: Unseen first starter.
19. Sea Spring: Blinkers first time. Failed last start in a maiden running 12th.
Comments: Who in their right mind would be wanting to bet into a 19 horse 1100m race down the straight with so many unknowns? The value runner is Happy Event while Kinetic Design is also worth a throw at the stumps if betting.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Happy Event E/W. Also a small E/W bet on Kinetic Design.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Starlight Express Room Stakes
1. Good Standing: Blinkers first time. Very average run firs tup at Rosehill on a soft track. Up to 1400m today for this Group 2 winner. Would prefer it dryer.
2. Seaburge: Rather plain first up over the 1200m for mine, but just like last prep, he will find so much more up to the 1400m. This is really the testing material from a perfect barrier today.
3. Tessera: Well beaten first up 7th on a Soft 7 track. Previous prep recorded a solid win on a Soft 6 so no real excuse. Been a long time between his best form and what’s needed today.
4. Jackson: Mcevoy got the chocolates last weekend with Hey Doc and Jackson is just as good a horse. Two preps back came over and recorded a nice win at Sandown. Only issue is if his very best is over the 1400m, or if he is better suited to shorter trips.
5. Throssell: Very solid run first up behind Dam Ready and Ken’s Dream with 1.5kg more on a soft 6 track over the 1200m. Will be better suited to 1400m today and will love being back at Flemington.
6. Detective: Got the maiden win last start (only just). G2 2nd to Seaburge last prep and is a horse we have to respect.
7. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Hard to dismiss his quality. Two runs last prep for two wins. First go at 1400m and will enjoy the rain… has to go to the next level again.
8. Revolving Door: Blinkers first time. Nice run first up in G3 company then last start very far back had to go very wide and ran home nicely enough. Will be out the back running on again today.
9. Urban Ruler: Bm-64 grade winner last start from start to finish at Sandown. Well beaten with every chance end of last prep in the Ingot. Respect his ability but clearly has to improve.
10. Captain Duffy: Trialed well coming into this today. Last prep was a 2YO winner over 1200m and ran nicely 5th in the Listed race at course over 1600m behind Trenchant. Has to have gone to another level to hold off all in this race i’d imagine.
11. Awake in Grinzing: Good win on a Heavy track at Sandown but last start at Caulfield very poor. Hard to consider today.
12. Zunbaqa: Hayes stable runner going for a 4th win in a row. Beat some good types last start at course and distance and takes another step up here. Will appreciate the rain as well. Good barrier.
13. Inspired Estelle: Nice enough trial heading into this. Previous prep won a nice enough handicap race at Sandown by nearly 3 lengths from on speed. Loves it wet… don’t dismiss.
14. Smart As You Think: 5th in a 6 horse race last start at Caulfield. Pass.
Comments: Inspired Estelle looks to be the value runner here. Several chances. Hard race to bet into.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Inspired Estelle E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – The Sofitel
1. Smokin’ Joey: Two runs this prep and has struggled to suggest anything. hard to have.
2. Hi World: Every possible chance from on speed first up at Caulfield but was well beaten that day by the leader and allowed a few to run past. Needs another run for fitness today.
3. Tashbeeh: Good run first up down the straight and then last start sat outside the leader off a brutal tempo in the Memsie and just kept on going without winning. Finished behind Mahuta the only concern considering Mahuta failed last weekend. Awkward barrier… but has been elected the stables best in VIC today.
4. Riziz: Hasn’t won in a fair while and five runs this prep have all been on soft surfaces. Three back run was clearly the best with a 1200m G3 2nd, but this is much harder again today class wise.
5. Ulmann: Just ignore last start when not suited by a heavy track at Morphetville. Back to a dryer track today and down to 55kg looks well suited. Respect.
6. Honorius: Long time between drinks and runs. Last prep failed to show anything. Very average first up form.
7. Rose of Virginia: NZ import. Handicap winner over 2200m. 2nd in the AUckland Cup over 3200m. Not here.
8. Nozomi: Last win was over Preferment in 2014 at Geelong over 2200m. Last prep got up to this distance but runs clearly showed he wanted further. Can’t have here.
9. Prince of Brooklyn: Maps to sit slightly better than midfield today from a very positive barrier. Stays at 1400m which is ideal and will appreciate the sting out of the ground today IMO. Good win two back over form horses in Mr Individual and Vostok who have franked that since. Last start just beaten by a very nice type in He’s Our Rokki. Will be in the finish.
10. Just Magical: Big win last start at Moonee Valley over a shorter distance beating some nice types late. Will enjoy the rain again today and only run in the past over 1400m was a win. Looks to be going well and could measure up again here. Barrier only issue.
11. Bon Aurum: Well backed first up when made up ground late to run a respectable 3rd with the top weight. Up to 1400m is ideal and looks well in here. Big chance even with the average barrier.
12. Wales: BM-78 winner last start in fine stle from dead last at Cranbourne. Big win. Stays at same distance today but a much harder race. Has to be respected on the last start run at very least.
13. Marwood: Very hard horse to catch. Got a win two back at Caulfield over Magicus… but beaten fairly last start by Jungle Edge. Not enough value today? Has ability.
14. Cool Chap: Best runs last prep were over much further. Can run well today over 1400m but i’d rather others.
Comments: Another race where several runners hold appeal. On my ratings though there are two clear standouts and I want to be having a small play on both. The value runners in the race are clearly Just Magical and Wales, while Bon Aurum and Tashbeeh are the main dangers.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Prince of Brooklyn for 1 unit @ $5.00. Ulmann for 1 unit @ $4.80.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Danehill Stakes
1. Defcon: Hard to ignore the cool and calm ride given to Defcon last start. Took the lane I believe was the best all day on the rail home and put them away. First time down the straight today is a big issue experience wise. No excuses today though!
2. Trenchant: Finished last prep with a 1400m and 1600m win in top quality races. Better over further but should measure up and run a respectable race.
3. Saracino: 1200m Group 2 winner over in NZ by a fair way. Almost a month between runs and gets the conditions to suit. Very well in here.
4. Archives: Blinkers first time. Two trials heading into this so expect him to be ready to rumble. Doomben listed winner last prep over 1200m. Needs to find another level first up.
5. Valliano: Nice enough run first up when every possible chance at Caulfield over the 1100m. Only ran fairly first and only run down straight on a wet track… others preferred.
6. Highland Beat: Two starts this prep for two solid seconds. First run down the straight but looks the type to be suited. Expect another solid run today but has to improve again to get past Defcon.
7. Dreams Aplenty: First up… maiden only winner. G2 second last prep at Doomben over further. G2 4th 0.6L off a win over 1200m. Has ability…
8. Jaws of Steel: Handles the straight. Failed in G1 last prep. Previous run over 1400m was good for 3rd at course. Best runs over further.
9. Dam Ready: Very strong run first up behind Ken’s Dream over the 1200m at Moonee Valley. No issues with the track conditions expected today and holds a strong win on record already. Big chance stepping up here again.
10. Wazzenme: Continues to run well without winning. Last start was a huge run from well back to hit the line strongly. Looks the type to be well suited by Flemington from the barrier.
11. Hardham: Blinkers first time. Big disappointment last start when too far back at Caulfield and didn’t finish off. Comes with big wraps. not for me.
12. Samara Dancer: Top quality horse… strong G2 win in the Blue DIamond Prelude last prep but failed in the Blue Diamond with a very poor run. First up runs are always the best and comes into this with some very nice trial form. Looks to really handle soft tracks.
Comments: Another race where you really couldn’t be betting with Confidence. The NZ import Saracino looks the real deal while so does Dam Ready. Samara Dancer also looks handy and it’s hard to ignore Defcon on last start.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Saracino to win. Also back Dam Ready.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Bobbie Lewis Quality
1. Under the Louvre: Massive run last start at Caulfield and proved he is back and ready to fire. Will be much better suited with a blistering tempo expected today over the 1200m and his final 200m will be telling. Only obvious issue today is the 59kg today being top weight. Handles soft tracks.
2. Xtravagant: Coming into this off a setback and was scratched from first up run that was expected at MV. First time down the straight. Handles Good or soft tracks so no dramas today. Massive G3 win first up smashing the field at Te Rapa over 1200m. His best in the past has been over further for mine, but he is really the complete package and can run huge sectionals. Won’t be leading today by all reports and trainer will be happy to finish top 5 today after the set back.
3. Generalife: Nice enough run first up in G3 company when never looked a chance. Doesn’t win out of turn and looks outclassed for mine.
4. Sir Moments: The most interesting runner of the day… finds himself in a race with a lowish weight for once and while we can suggest he wants further than 1200m to find his best, his sectionals over the distance are always strong. First up last prep over 1200m flew home with 58kg from the back.
5. Durendal: A favourite of mine, two preps back he got a G3 win on the board at course and distance. Last prep only the one run when fairly beaten 4th. Never won first up.
6. Kinglike: Very well backed today coming off an only fair trial. Has scored a Group 2 win down the straight in previous preps. Last prep failed to get a win but ran a very close 2nd behind English and 4th in Group 2 company behind Japonisme and Counterattack. goes well first up.
7. The Monstar: Every chance from spot in running last start at Eagle Farm when beaten fairly. Good win the previous run though… certainly has been running well in easier grade than this.
8. Santa Ana Lane: Group 3 winner on previous preps. First up run 3rd to Redzel behind Under The Louvre was a very strong run. First time down the straight today. Very well weighted today.
9. Tivaci: Two runs in the past for two wins over this distance in much easier grades. Group 3 winner over further. Best runs have been over 1600m. Others preferred.
10. Faatinah: Group 2 winner and ran well wide in the Group 1 when 5th to Black Heart Bart over 1200m in the Goodwood. Meets Under The Louvre very well at the weights today also gaining a 6kg turn around.
11. We’ve Got This: Got well back last start and ran home well enough for 6th behind Santa Ana Lane and Under The Louvre. Well in at the weights but has to obviously improve onwards again from that run.
12. Astro Casto: Solid enough sectionals first up on a soft track when smashed a decent enough 3YO field. Big step up again.
Comments: I’m the biggest fan of Under The Louvre, but the horse is very poorly weighted here today. Xtravagant is certainly the X factor horse in the race based on the NZ form, but is the horse better over further… first time down the straight. Santa Ana Lane’s last start run was very good, but it’s Faatinah that I look towards off the 53kg today… the price is simply value here for a horse that has strong 1200m form and should be suited by the pace on today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Faatinah for 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$3.15
Flemington Race 7 – 1600m – PFD Food Services Makybe Diva Stakes
1. Prince of Penzance: Run off his feet first up. Blinkers off a positive. Should run well over the 1600m distance with a solid enough tempo set, but is certainly aimed at races much further than the 1600m later in the prep.
2. Happy Trails: Two trials heading into this today and he always requires a run before he finds his very best. The more it rains the less he is suited today.
3. Black Heart Bart: Very good barrier today and will be rock hard fit coming off that strong Memsie win at Caulfield. While others suggest 1600m is beyond him, he is being trained towards a Cox Plate and that was always the aim… the horse is G2 placed over 2100m remember! He will be very hard to beat today.
4. Our Ivanhowe: Any rain is only an advantage for him. His very best runs in the past have been 2000m+ is the big issue with the distance today. Can run well and will be coming home strong late, but i can’t see him beating this quality field.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Goes well on Good or Soft so looks suited today. Backing up after a luckless run last start at Moonee Valley. Ran a very valid 2nd in G2 the previous start over 1400m and I really feel this horse is best over the 1600m distance from on speed. Will have every chance and looks a massive price.
6. Entirely Platinum: Came home well with Jac Bay lat start in the Lawrence. Up to 1600m obviously suits him better again today also. Will be on speed with Jac Bay today and will be very solid to the line. Win is possible but I really want to see the run again here… doesn’t win out of turn.
7. He or She: Really liked the way he hit the line last start when never a chance behind Black Heart Bart. Will be out hte back again even from the barrier and hitting the line strongly. Not convinced he has the turn of foot to match it with Bart today though and think he is looking for 2000m+ or a weaker race.
8. Alpine Eagle: Ran shithouse for mine in thbe Memsie. Will gain fitness for the run but there is no way I could touch him here against this field.
9. Tarzino: Lame last start after the Memsie so this is a fairly quick turn around considering. Good barrier but will be going back again. Two runs at this track for a win and 0.1L 2nd in G1 company over this distance. His very best distance is 2000-2400m, but he can win over this distance today also. Good horse.
10. Palentino: Well backed today to beat Bart, but I can’t see it on the first two runs this prep. I can’t see the progression required up to 1600m on those two runs and i’m actually really happy to take him on at the price.
11. Ayers Rock: Looks horribly out of place in this race. Will be expected to go forward today and potentially lead, but I think he will be crossed by EP and JB. Not winning here.
12. Rising Romance: Strong run first up at Caulfield when 2nd to Black Heart Bart in the Memsie. Will be well suited to 1600m but 5 runs for 0 wins at track, but does always seem to run well here. A bit of rain is no disadvantage for her either today and maps ideally from barrier 2.
13. Sofia Rosa: Well beaten first up. Up in distance helps but really needs 2000m+ to find her very best. Take on.
Comments: Very keen to be backing Black Heart Bart here at the price on over. Rated much shorter. Jacquinot Bay is the value horse in the race… expect he will get to sit his own tempo out front with EP and be every chance – rock hard fit.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 12
Strategy: Black Heart Bart for 5 units @ $2.62. Jacquinot Bay for 1 unit @ $26.
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Let’s Elope Stakes
1. Badawiya: Maps for a nice spot just off the speed today. Trialed fairly. First up last prep won well at course and distance in G2 company. Goes okay on wet surfaces also. Respect.
2. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Big run first up at Caulfield in G3 company when held up for runs until final 200m when flew home and just missed behind Ocean Embers. Listed grade winner last prep and Group 3 winner also at course and distance.
3. Catch a Fire: Flew home late last start in much easier grade at Moonee Valley to score very well. Only run at track was a fail but was an excuse that day. Goes well 2nd up on past form and is a Group 2 winner. The rain is welcome.
4. Thames Court: Got away with murder out front last start but still couldn’t find the line strong enough to hold off Ocean Embers. G3 winner over 1600m last prep… will enjoy the extra distance but needs to improve onwards here to win.
5. C’est Beau La Vie: BM-90 2nd behind Heza Ripper at Morphetville first up. G1 placed last prep over 2000m. Clearly best form is over further, but first up showed she is ready to fire over the 1400-1600m distances.
6. Jessy Belle: Never really saw a gap first up and couldn’t show much. Not convinced she is good enough to win this essentially on what is a first up run.
7. All Cerise: Stable suggest they will probably be going back today from the wide barrier. Very hard to win from there on current form. Better over 1600m.
8. Metaphorical: Fresh but very fit according to the stable and flying around at home. Best runs see over 1600-2000m is an issue and only 1 win firs tup in the past a while ago. Others preferred.
9. Choose: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield when off the speed. Expect to lead today and give a better showing up to 1400m.. will enjoy any rain.
10. My Sister Lil: Too far back to really win last start when found the line well to run 2nd, but was no match in the end. Been running well without winning.
11. Manageress: First up for 300 days. Last prep placed in G2 company twice, over 1400m and 2000m. Goes well at track and likes any rain that will come.
12. Telopea: Never found a run last start at Caulfield when probably should have won. Back to 1400m and a softer track is ideal today. Barrier the massive issue.
13. Miss Softhands: Doesn’t appear to be going super well this prep, but last start ran well like a few others really untested to the line.
14. Rockolicius: Every chance last two runs when well beaten. Much harder here and struggle to suggest.
15. French Emotion: Never a chance on the run last start at Moonee Valley. Up to 1400m will certainly suit.. get the feeling she really wants the distance this prep… a bit more speed on and a dryer track.
16. Niminypiminy: Close 2nd last start at Caulfield in much easier grade. Not winning this on current form from barrier.
17. Cana: First up every chance on speed when well beaten by Ocean Embers. Last start every chance from position but out sprinted. Has to improve.
18. Egypt: Found nothing first up – clearly has to improve.
19. Champagne Cocktail: On the quick backup, had every chance but not good enough. Won’t be placing here.
Comments: Widest and most open race of the day. I just keep coming back to what I know French Emotion really can produce and the fact he horse maps so well today just off the leaders. Have to give it one more chance today.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 13, 15
Strategy: French Emotion E/W
Flemington Race 9 – 1700m – Spring is the Season Handicap
1. Maurus: Last start ran last with top weight over 1400m.. not a surprise it was a strange placement really. Top weight again today up to 170m which is still short of his very best. Leading into better races.
2. Escado: Doesn’t win out of turn. Not the worst run last start to be honest heading into this, but he really needs 2000m+ to find his best.
3. Royal Rapture: Just simply continues to run well and win. Soft or good tracks no issue.. infact, the rain will help his chances. Maps perfectly from barrier 5 today and back up to 1700m looks well suited as well back to Flemington. Will be very hard to beat again even with the weight.
4. Big Memory: Two strong trials heading into this prep before missing a run last start in Adelaide in the Cup. Been set for this distance.. any rain is a disadvantage today…. last prep went close over 1600m in the Golden Mile. Never won first up or at track.
5. Howard Be Thy Name: First up today, he went through the grades winning some very good races in Adelaide including a G3 and G1 over much further. Listed winner over 1800m and will be competitive, but you would expect his very best is to come later in the prep.
6. Shimrano: German import. Group 2 winner over 2200m. Hasn’t run better than 11th since 14 June 2015…. best runs in the past have been on good to soft…. best is on further distances.
7. Tally: Very plain first up and no real excuses. Best should be seen 1800-2400m range so should be no issues with this distance range, but on the first up run it’s hard to have any confidence.
8. De Little Engine: Looking for further.
9. Assign: First up last prep won over 1800m with 62kg in much easier grade before winning at 2000m at Caulfield in Listed grade. Clearly has ability from the right stable and will be going forward. Have to respect.
10. Hans Holbein: Horrible run last start at MV over 2040m. back to 1700m doesn’t look ideal and I can’t understand the backup here. Take on.
11. Gabella: Will appreciate the rain. Very good run first up at Caulfield when had no luck or run and should really have bolted in for the win that day. Well weighted up in class here but looks well suited over the 1700m. Any rain is a big advantage also. Key runner.
12. Zanteca: Two runs this prep and yet to really make a mark. Needs further than this today to find her best for mine.
13. Pilote D’essai: 3-wide no cover last start as mapped and got stomped on by Royal Rapture. Another tough barrier today will see him get far back in run today, but should really be no excuses with the full straight to make up ground. I’m just not overly convinced he is as good as everyone thinks with his pattern.
14. Pinstripe Lane: Two runs this prep and failed to get closer than 3.3L to the win. Much harder here and even from the barrier it’s hard to suggest a place.
15. Mr Wonderful: Very much an underrated type. Been well placed the past four runs for four wins but this is a massive step up here. I like the horse but I think a few others are better weighted. Will go forward from barrier. The more rain the better.
16. Prima: Ran very well last start in much easier grade for a win at Sandown. hard to see the repeat up in this class of race.
Comments: The price on Pilote D’Essai looks like poison today with how far back the horse will get from the barrier. Gabella and Royal Rapture are the two key chances I want to be betting around here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Royal Rapture for 2 units @ $6.00. Gabella for 1 unit @ $10.
