Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 10 December 2016. After a few weeks outside of the premium tracks we finally return to Flemington where the track is expected to play well throughout the day with those coming home from the back expected to have every chance. We have some very confident bets on the card today and confidence is quite high on a good day out. Fingers crossed. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Goathland – 4 units @ $5.00
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 – Brown Ben – 2.5 units @ $5.20 to win
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Euston Road – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$4.60
More Value Bet
Flemington Race 7 – The New Boy – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.80
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 14
Leg Two: 4, 8, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Four: 6, 13, 14, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – Lanec Services Handicap
1. Lyuba: Will be on speed with 57.5kg after claims. Won very well first up at Moonee Valley strong through the line. Respect.
2. Lady Esprit: Never placed from 4 runs at this track. Nice enough win first up at Sandown on a soft track over 1000m but has failed to get a win since. Was good enough the past two runs to suggest she can go well again.
3. Very Choosy: First time at the track. Won over similar distances in the past. First up over 1000m fairly beaten by Lyuba but can improve onwards.
4. Deja Blue: Bm-64 winner first up at Sandown as a very short priced favourite. Nice time run for the day which has to be respected. First time down the straight but is going well.
5. Infra Dig: Went up a stupid price and has been well backed in betting. Good win two back in similar company at Banterbury and ran through the line strongly last start 2nd behind Nieta. Looks well suited to the straight.
6. Euston Road: Has run very well down the straight in the past. Never won first up a big query but certainly finds the right type of race here to be competitive if good enough and has won here which is a big plus. I thought the horse did enough in the lead in jumps outs to be ready to fire here.
7. Blithe Belle: 1200m 3YF Handicap winner at Caulfield to end last prep at double figure odds.. sit and sprint type… not 100% convinced this horse is suited down the straight but if they go slow and run a strong final 400m then she may just be. Has to be at her best first up.
8. Magna Rossa: Fairly disappointing this prep failing to get a win on the board. Well outclassed the last two runs and hard to see the win here.
9. Little Indian: Strong trial heading into this today. Nice runs in the past over different distances. Never placed at track from 3 starts a concern and never won over distance.
Comments: Lyuba, Infra Dig and Euston Road are the three that stand out on my ratings. Infra Dig is the top pick while Euston Road is the clear value at the ratings, rated a clear single figure chance for mine.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Euston Road – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$4.60
Flemington Race 2 – 1600m – Adamo Handicap
1. Electric Tribute: Stepping up in class and distance here, but he ran and won very well last start at Kyneton from an on speed position sprinting away from the field. Clearly has ability and is going the right way up in distance. Maps for a nice run.
2. Galaxy Raider: Huge run last start at Ballarat from off the speed on a track that was clearly suiting those closer to the speed. Just missed behind Dollar for Dollar and he is 2kg better off at the weights today. This is a horse ideally suited by the Flemington track also.
3. Dollar for Dollar: Nice run and win last start at Ballarat from on speed on a day that suited. Poorly in at the weights compared to galaxy Raider and will have to have trained on to hold Galaxy Raider out here.
4. Lotza Focus: Winner in much easier grade at Hamilton last start. Certainly a horse that has nice enough ability to win two of his last four starts, but this is a massive jump in grade. Hard to feel the win here.
5. On Wings: Went around favourite first up at Ballarat and won fairly painlessly. Another step up here and up to 1600m will suit. Has to find more to win this but does look well suited.
6. Balf’s Choice: Won first up at Balaklava and then fairly beaten from the back last start at Morphetville – but he was still a solid run. Got up to 2000m last prep with a win.
7. Le Boss: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close to a win. Stays at 1600m as well – hard to have.
8. First Amendment: Maiden winner last start over 1600m. Huge ask today.
Comments: Looks a pretty open and closed race in terms of the two horses in Galaxy Raider and Dollar for Dollar being the ones to beat. I wouldn’t be dismissing On Wings one bit here and Balf’s Choice may improve onwards again here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Galaxy Raider to win.. Also a small bet for On Wings.
Flemington Race 3 – 1700m – Hollywood Nails Handicap
1. Khutulun: never suited last start at Ballarat by the track bias but did run only fairly on the day. Up to 1700m a significant help today and she looks primed to run a solid race here with 58kg.
2. Hell or Highwater: Looked well suited at Moonee Valley last start and won accordingly. Previous run at Flemington was certainly good over the 1700m but she was claimed early in the straight and just battled home holding a spot… better around a turn but also will be much better suited third up fitter today.
4. Tavi Bay: Similar weight to Hell or Highwater today and has had a solid month and a bit between runs to keep fit and going well.
5. Domino Vitale: Strong win last start at Sandown 3-wide no cover and still got the job done. Sweet Melody has come out and franked the form since early this week. Very well suited here.
6. Lopartega: Nice enough win two back at Pakenham in easier grade. Last start up to this class ran well for 2nd fairly beaten behind Hell or Highwater. Has to improve onwards again but certainly has the ability to run well here.
7. Fair and Equitable: Two starts this prep for a not too bad third and a well beaten 8th in similar grade last start. At her best she is still a little below this.
8. Jennio: Five runs this prep and her best run was last start over 2040m at Moonee Valley. Came home nicely but was no match for the winner. Back to 1700m today and a longer track.. but is she really going well enough? 52kg.
9. Firebird Flyer: Waller runner down from Sydney.. Didn’t show a lot to me first up… step up in distance obviously suits but she has to find another level today.
10. Loveitt: Not terrible last start but has to improve onwards again. Terrible two back. Fairly beaten three back. Improvement required.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances. The value lay with Domino Vitale who comes into this race off a different form line to many others in what was a very strong win.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Domino Vitale E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Plenary Group Handicap
1. Tristram’s Sun: Horribly placed. Can’t win.
2. Kievann: Ran very well first up at Moonee Valley behind King’s Command. Never placed from 4 attempts at Flemington but has to be considered a strong chance.
3. Spreadeagled: Very hard horse to catch but is certainly a horse with ability. Better over further on past information and very best have been on soft tracks. Has to be at his best here.
4. King’s Command: Trialled well coming into the first up run and just got the chocolates with a gap to Kievann in third. Has won at this track in the past and handles the straight no dramas. Stays in same class and is well in again.
5. Chiavari: Nice run first up over 1000m at Moonee Valley. Last win was over 1000m and while she is certainly suited to a 1200m distance, is she going to get a win down the straight? Tough ask here up in class.
6. Armada: Good enough run first up from out the back hitting the line well. Hasn’t ever gone beyond this grade though and has to improve onwards and upwards again.
7. Divine Mr Artie: Finished off last prep over 1400m with a win in 3YO Handicap company. Best tracks were clearly a turning track and best distance was further than this. A win certainly wouldn’t totally shock, but he has to be at his best over the distance short of his best.
8. Ilgattino: Goes okay first up. Last prep scored over 1200m in similar company races. Getting on age wise and never placed at this track.
9. Bassett: Horror first up when got claimed late at Kilmore by Airalign when looked home and hosed! Step up in grade again and not exactly proven down the straight for mine… but will handle it like in the past. Best in the past over further.
10. Not a Happy Camper: Fairly average prep to date… got a win from the front at Pakenham on synthetic but next two starts well beaten. Clearly has to improve here down the straight. 7 runs 0 wins at the track.
11. San Amaro: BM-70 4th first up behind some very average horses in Roman Fizz and Little Bita Spunk. Better over further.
Comments: Wide open race down the straight. Couldn’t go anywhere near old favourite in Bassett who goes in the sack after that first up loss. Divine Mr Artie for mine wants further to find his very best also and looks unders. King’s Command looks very welll suited here off a strong win first up and gets the nod.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: King’s Command E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 2500m – Vaughan Constructions Handicap
2. Charlevoix: Fairly beaten 2nd behind Shikarpour last start at Ballarat when was a nice run as a lead in to this third up today. Measured up in Group company in the past and will appreciate the distance.
3. Goathland: Huge run last start at Pakenham from on speed in a very swift time on the day. Up to 2500m is a HUGE plus for this horse that is an out and out stayer and with Martin onboard gets in really well again at the weights from a very positive barrier. Maps perfectly to sit just off the speed. Huge chance.
4. Zourkhan: CL2 winner two back before a respectable third in similar grade of race at Rosehill. First time around this way though… D Oliver takes the ride. Have to respect his ability.
5. Big Hammer: Won three in a row going through the grades on good heavy or soft tracks. Weir stable. Toughest test to date but clearly goes well.
6. Zenithal: Well beaten the past four runs over 2000m+ in similar or easier races. Hard to suggest the improvement needed.
7. King of England: Comes out of a nothing race last start when it was simply too slowly run. Up in distance but also in grade.
8. Real Jazz: Fairly beaten the past two starts in easier company. Wants further to find her best and needs to improve.
9. Who Says I’m Ready: BM-64 winner last start. Huge step up in grade again. Outclassed.
10. Blue Jangles: Looks the on speed runner and will push them along well enough. Big step up in grade and hard to suggest on past two runs, but previous run before that was okay.
11. Verreaux: 3L maiden winner finally after 18 starts. Hard to suggest.
12. Dreamtimes: Hasn’t won since her maiden win.
Comments: Very keen on Goathland with the short one week backup here up in distance mapping perfectly.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Goathland – 4 units @ $5.00
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Dorevitch Phatology Charity Plate
1. Invincible Al: Strong win last start at Pakenham and straight back up to 1200m today where we might suggest he isn’t as well suited off the top weight today. Clearly has ability but never fully measured up only start down the straight here.
2. Hellbound: Horrible last start at Moonee Valley when ran last and most likely didn’t handle the track on the day. Back to Flemington clearly a positive today but he is really hard to trust!
3. Khaki: Big maiden win first up by 3.8L in a soft track. Back to dryer here but no issues with that and really looks a type well suited down the straight. Respect his ability.
4. Power Up Rise: Maiden winner first up beating a nice type in Fast Tycoon at Moonee Valley. Was horrible last prep only run down the straight. Has to improve again.
5. Zelamore: Good win first up in similar grade of race before being fairly beaten last start on a soft track at Sandown. Back to dryer and much better suited.
6. Ridgway: Looked a very nice type based on first prep run at Sandown before getting injured. Returns nicely here and looks suited by a long straight.
7. Southern Spur: Solid maiden win in average time. Has to clearly step up again here for Griffiths yard that is going well right now.
9. Hot Seat: Never spotted on a dry track. Solid enough runs and has to be at his best to win this. Has ability.
10. Oak Door: Horrible last start when well backed behind Speedeor. Good maiden win two back. Hard to suggest first time down straight with that last start fail.
11. What a Shock: Good run 2nd behind Wise Hero at Moonee Valley and looks very well rated in this race down the straight. Has to be considered.
12. Sweet Varden: Maiden winner and 2YO placed. Nice run 2nd at Sandown in easier grade last start. Has to improve but has ability.
13. Cardenas: 6L maiden winner at Geelong. Beaten when didn’t lead last start at Sandown. Expect they push her to the front down the straight and try and get the right sectionals.
14. Bella Ava: Maiden win on soft first up at Wang in a very nice type. Looks a good type of horse and a big chance here.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances. Bella Ava looks a verynice price and clear overs while Ridgway clearly is good enough on last prep also to run well here. Could tip up 7-8 runners here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 14
Strategy: Bella Ava E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Western Health Pharmacy Cup
2. Master of Arts: First up this prep over a distance which is well short of his best especially as he gets older. Goes well at this track but surely just having a run around.
3. Tashbeeh: Will slot in nicely today… been well beaten all runs this prep over the distance and has been thrown over different distances in the past including much further. Hard to suggest on the current form to win.
4. Rough Justice: Continues to run well without disappointing when a nice 4th at Pakenham last start. Previous run here was good 2nd. Tough bloke but generally finds one too good… nicely weighted today.
5. Cadillac Mountain: Weir stayer that has never won at this track and clearly needs much further. Couldn’t touch.
6. Metaphorical: Been knocking on the door the past few preps with this girl… last start was her worst run all prep though from out the back at Sandown. Has to jump and sit closer to the speed today. Has to improve again.
7. Oregon Spirit: Hasn’t won since 2013 and looks outclassed here first up.
8. Snoopy: Finally got the right race and run last start on speed at Rosehill and won quite well. Up in class here but still nice enough in at the weights for mine. Doubt he leads today though is the concern but speed will be on.
9. Chill Party: Best runs have been 2000m+ in the past. Needs the run today.
10. Majestic Duke: Hasn’t won since mid 2015. Hasn’t placed in the past 10 runs and hard to see the form reversal either.
11. Airalign: Very strong run first up to win at Kilmore running down a nice type in Bassett. Will improve onwards today and looks a blowout chance up in distance.
12. The New Boy: Old mate was 3-wide the trip and lost a plate but still ran a blinder first up over 1200m at Moonee Valley. Looks to be super well suited here at the weights and is a big chance.
14. Star Fortune: Good win two back at Moonee Valley but fairly beaten in much easier last start. Has to improve.
Comments: Snoopy is under the odds here not getting it all his way. Rough Justice will be running on well also with the speed on while Airalign is also suited up in distance off a strong first up run… but it’s The New Boy who I think has the most progression from the first up run and will be hard to run down.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: The New Boy 0.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.80
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Urban Maintenance Systems Handicap
1. Inspector: Well beaten favourite last start at Traralgon when over raced. Previous run was very solid and back to that 1600m distance today. Never won at track.
2. Lucky Paddy: Weir runner that was fairly beaten last start on heavy and previous starts on dry he was also fairly beaten. Has to improve.
3. Black Sheep: Nice enough type that has been very well placed by the Weir camp. First time in this class after a nice win in good time at Moonee Valley last start. Only run at this track failed to fire but should run better today.
4. Encosta Line: Won well two back over 1800m at Sandown beating some average types in easier than this. Last start up to 2040 ran very well 1L 4th behind Boom Time. Back to 1600m a concern but goes well over the distance.
5. River’s Lane: Hasn’t recorded a top class win in a while but did win near end of last prep over the 2400m distance. Ran nicely last start 1.2L 4th over 1400m and should run nicely over the 1600m at a track he has previous won at…. 10YO now.
6. Lord Lumberjack: French import first up for Busuttin stable. Looked a nice enough type but needs further to feature.
7. Vital Importance: Won in easier company first up on Heavy but failed to fire on good tracks the past two starts in similar grades. Has to find more today.
8. Dodging Bullets: Not the worst run at the Bool last start 4th in ‘harder’ company but not convinced it was harder. Has won here over 1600m as a 3YO.
9. Shockaholic: Good win two back over Hell On Earth at Bendigo before a horrible run last start at Ballarat. Has to improve but does have winning ability.
10. Walloon Region: Bm-70 winner just before spell over 1600m. Hardest test to date and will need to be at his best plus beyond to be competitive here.
11. Aurum Spirit: Old mate is 16 runs for 0 wins at this track. Consistent type that always runs a nice race.
Comments: Wide open race. Black Sheep looks hard to beat off the last start run but the price on River’s Lane does look tempting also.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Black Sheep to win. Also a small bet on River’s Lane.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Western Health Foundtaion Handicap
1. Bondeiger: Hasn’t won since 2014 and best runs the last few preps have been 2000m+. Not here.
2. Post d’france: Not the worst going around in trials heading into this prep. Horrible form up in Darwin back in 2015 a concern and not been seen since. Needs the run.
3. Take Pride: Good first up this prep but failed to find any real form since. 2nd go 1400m and not one I want to be on here.
4. Bradman: Always finds the line strongly and never really runs badly. Stable is flying. Nice enough run first up over 1200m and up to 1400m is ideal.
6. Brown Ben: Well backed her back in class and slightly back in distance coming off three of the biggest form races you will see in a while form wise. Absolutely suited to Flemington and will be flying home.
7. Decircles: Hasn’t won since Jan 2015 and won’t be turning that around today on everything we know.
9. Ozi Choice: Two solid runs in a row in easier grade. Down in weight but not much and in much harder. Concern that he couldn’t beat ROman Fizz last start.
10. Act of Valour: Good run 2nd to Dan Zephyr two back but well beaten at Ballarat last start and no issues found. Wide barrier.
11. See What I Bring: Had every chance first up over the 1200m when ran well 1.4L 4th behind Roman Fizz. Much better suited to this track but clearly has to find another level.
12. Doom ‘n’ Boom: Well beaten first up at Sandown over the 1300m. Doesn’t look much easier here over this distance.
13. Ma Deuce: BM-70 winner over 1400m to end last prep in very strong style… well beaten first up at Ballarat and no real excuse. Has to go to anotehr level here.
14. Stringer Bell: Running well every run this prep. Beat Roman Fizz two back and a nice run third behind Airalign at Kilmore. Step up to 1400m may improve him.
15. Sir Sagamore: Big win first up at Pakenham over the unsuitable 1200m and will improve significantly up to 1400m. Looks a key player here.
16. Kiss me Ketut: Looks outclassed on previous form and three runs this prep.
17. Chamois Road: BM-70 second behind Uncle Tiger last start. Hard to rate as a key top hope.
Comments: Strong way to end the day. Four key chances on my figures with Brown Ben the clear top hope coming over them all late.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 6, 13, 14, 15
Strategy: Brown Ben – 2.5 units @ $5.20 to win
