Welcome to The Profits form guide for 1 January 2016 at Flemington. After a few average weeks, we have finished off December with a bang pulling back the profits and securing a big quaddie on Boxing Day. New year, same old me, i’ll be here as always providing you with my thoughts and i’m pretty confident we have nailed a lot of the card with several races that stand out and require a bet. Looking forward to a great day of racing and a few winners. I hope you had a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 9
Burning Front for 1.5 units @ $4.50 to win. Abasso for 0.75 units @ $8 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8
Danjeu for 1 unit @ $4.40 to win. Sonntag for 0.5 units @ $13 to win.
Other Best Bet
Flemington Race 2
We’ve Got This for 1 unit @ $3.75 to win.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 8, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Not worth previewing each of the runners here with the majority never having been seen. Obviously Sword of Light did alot wrong and raced very green first up in a high priced maiden at Echuca, but she still killed them and looks the obvious horse to beat.
Comments: As above. If playing the only logical way to bet would be the proven class in Sword of Light, but there are obviously some well bred types here.
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: Back Sword of Light
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Straight Draw
1. Distant Rock: Strong win last start at Sandown in this class over a similar distance. Maps well enough again to be going close.
2. We’ve Got This: Continues to run well this prep but is just 1 win from 4 having started favourite in 3 of those 4 races and 2nd favourite in the other. Hard to argue with the 2nd to Burning Front in open class at Pakenham with that horse running a close 2nd in similar grade at Flemington last start and 3rd in a Group 3 the previous start. Barrier the only issue here.
3. Mihany: Hard horse to catch. Only average win first up and then found at least one far too good the last two starts. Will run well but can’t trust him to beat all these. Never won at track from 5 attempts.
4. Secret Blend: Had every chance last start at Geelong and couldn’t keep the win. Form lines of the first two runs this prep haven’t measured up going forward. While his best run in the past was over 1400m, i can’t see the improvement.
5. Boundary: Very nice win last start at Geelong in much easier grade. This is a lot harder today though and she needs to take the next step to be winning this.
6. Kracken: 3YO grade up to open grade today and up in class. Much harder than it seems to do. Deep into prep and i’d be shocked to see the jump up here made for a win.
7. Harbour Grey: Couldn’t win last start in BM-64 grade. Obviously the yard have an opinion of the horse the way it continues to start favourite, but i can’t see the hype. Take on.
8. Pure Karma: Had his chances last start at Geelong and couldn’t pass 3 others. Needs to improve on that first up run to be a chance.
9. Show Us Your Tatts: First up today over a distance she has never won at in a class she is simply outclassed in.
Comments: There are certainly a lot of horses in this race with ‘progression’, but one coming back in class with the stats is We’re Got This. While the barrier is a concern to me, he simply has the runs on the board that suggest a win here. Distant Rock is the main danger but i’m happy to let it go at the price.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: We’ve Got This for 1 unit @ $3.75 to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – Byron Moore Handicap
1. Jacquinot Bay: Hasn’t placed the last five races yet is going to start favourite here. The fact of the matter is the last few races he hasn’t ever been able to get the lead, but not today! There aren’t no world beaters here, but he isn’t one either. If he can return to his best form lines, he can win this. Key is the 3kg claim.
2. Electric Fusion: Speed was on last start at Sandown. Low weight that day just kept going and got the win. Similar class today but up to 2000m. Has the ability.
3. Evangelist: Strong win first up. Next two runs had a bit of bad luck one run and poor the other. Last start didn’t run on. Up to 2000m… not convinced.
4. Oregon Spirit: Well beaten last start, very poor run, flat. Just a forgive. Previous run much better.
5. Inspector: Continues to run well but never a winning chance in harder company. Backing up off a nice run at Caulfield but not exactly well in at the weights.
6. Second Bullet: Huge run 4th when never got in last start at Sandown off a very strong pace set out front. Form can be followed forward from that race and he looks to be going the right way.
7. Allergic: Well backed today and I just can’t believe the money again today. Failed both runs this prep and I can’t see the improvement in 6 days on that last start run up in class poorly weighted over this distance.
8. Warrior of Fire: Couldn’t win BM-64 grade last prep. No thanks. Horrible at the weights.
Comments: Two standouts here in Jacquinot Bay and Second Bullet at the weights.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Jacquinot Bay and Second Bullet to win.
Flemington Race 4 – 1200m – Nouvelle Star Handicap
1. The Big Dance: Big win in 2YO grade when won a very big race. Run last prep obviously not great, but back down in grade here if returns to the form seen at that Bendigo run then you have to believe she is the horse to beat.
2. Lady Esprit: Huge win last start at Sandown, very strong win. Found wings back on a good track and it wasn’t a great shock to anyone. Can run well here back to 3YO grade from open class.
3. Lahqa: Every chance last start at Flemington when ran a decent 4th. Back in class to 3YO grade obviously better sited here. Has ability and weighted nicely.
4. Burgundy Lass: Only a fair win first up at Sandown over a very fair group of horses. Has to improve on that run.
5. Grisbi’s Run: Way off wins last prep in Melb City class. Best runs in past on wetter surfaces. First up run wasn’t bad or good.
6. Mossin’ Around: Strong maiden win first up from midfield. Did overrace as well… did a lot wrong… big win. First time down the straight.
7. Magna Rossa: Looked a good type last prep and continued on with a win first up. A few weeks between runs, has to improve but still looks well in.
8. Majestic Lass: Strong maiden win first up at Moonee Valley. Times were decent enough.
9. Maddie Moo Moo: Only won a maiden. Three runs since in similar grades not gone close. Have to take her on.
10. Snitzel Music: Easy FM-MDN win last start after getting just beaten in an open maiden before that. Has to improve.
12. Shining Star: Maidenw in on heavy. Not terrible runs in higher class in previous preps. Hard to suggest on previous form to win this.
Comments: Not keen to get involved here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: The Big Dance E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – Red Tempo Handicap
1. Grane: Ignore last start and rate on previous 5 runs which were more than good enough. Well enough weighted. Can win.
2. Stratumsphere: Going through the grades and going well. Has to improve again but respect his consistent ability.
3. Trevinder: Always runs well but never placed at Flemington in the past. Doesn’t have to improve much on last two runs to be in the finish.
4. Danger Close: Couldn’t be on him even with the improvement. Hasn’t won in a long time and not showing me the right signs on last start run.
5. Rough Justice: Another consistent type. Just got the win as short priced favourite at MV last start. Placed 5 of 6 at Flemington and won one of those. Has to improve but going the right way.
6. Beau Rada: Another gong the right way, continues to run well. Key winning hope.
7. Belesron: Failed to win both runs this prep in similar grade but going close. Has to improve.
8. Lucky Symbol: Another going well – either just missing or winning. Has ability obviously.
9. Fab Fevola: Just missed the last two runs at Moonee Valley. From the barrier expect them to run him solo down the inside rail and hope he gets away with murder and they run slower on the inside and don’t catch him. Going well enough for mine and most importantly gets weight on key opposition here.
10. Tansy: Never won first up or at track. Has obviously ability but i can’t be on.
11. Our Harmony: Another good horse with ability over this distance. Don’t dismiss.
12. Crooner: Looks one we can take on for mine.
13. Dezannam: Take on as well.
Comments: About 10 winning chances. No way i could bet apart from on Fabby in play if they are solo inside lane and get enough of a break on them. Rough Justice is a lay at the price, even a place lay.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Back Beau Rada and Fab Fevola
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – 1840-2016 Handicap
2. Northern Lyric: Bit of a return to form the last two runs going much better than previously, but still not anywhere close to a win. Okay in this at the weights but needs to improve again.
3. The Thug: Well backed winner last start at Kyneton in an average grade of race. Back up to 1600m fair today. Needs to improve but obviously has ability.
4. Neona: Well backed last start in much easier race and ran horrible. Previous runs were horrible outside of soft track win over 1300m. Hard to have.
5. Black Sheep: Continues to run well and go through the grades. Was a nice run back on speed last start at MV and can continue on with winning ways if good enough. Handles long straights.
6. Houdini The Great: Ignore first up after an average at best run. Previous preps best form has been over further than this. This is his maximum class and not sure it is in city grade 2nd up after that 1st up run.
7. Coup De Beel: Very nice win last start at Geelong and previous run at Pakenham wasn’t terrible either. Going well enough to look a threat to the more progressive types.
9. Surge Ahead: Bit of a surprise run last start at MV when almost getting the win. Nice enough weight today and has won at this track previously in harder grade as a 3YO. Barrier 5 could see a closer to the speed ride. Respect.
10. Mr Pago: Beaten favourite first up. Had his chances last start at course over 1400m. Hasn’t won since a 2YO in 68 grade. Have to take on from barrier.
11. Rib Eye: Two wins in a row coming into this. Obviously needs to improve again to win and won’t get an easy lead.
13. Making Mayhem: His best 3YO grade form is good enough to win this with a win over Profit Share but it’s been a long time between drinks. Not terrible last two runs but obviously has to have trained on to win this.
14. Miss Maggiebeel: Well back in class last start and got the chocolates when well backed adopting an on speed pattern. Improvement required to win.
15. Melaleuca: Not going well enough this prep to measure up on current form. Has to improve.
17. Aurum Spirit: Just continues to go around and not win.
Comments: Very open race. Not overly confident and going wide in the Quaddie. This is the leg we could miss with a blowout, but you have to take a few chances.
Confidence 65%
Quadie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9, 13
Strategy: Back Black Sheep a
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – Standish Handicap
1. Churchill Dancer: Continues to run well this prep but the past three runs have been worse than his 5 back peak winning in Group 2 company at course and distance. Thought he had every chance last start and just was beaten by a better horse on the day. Finds himself worse off at the weights.
2. It Is Written: Never runs a bad race but never quite gets there in this grade. Poor first up form as well and never placed from 3 starts at course.
3. Tried and Tired: Loves this track and always runs well but hardly ever finds a win. First up run at Sandown was huge considering the unsuitable 1000m. Up to 1200m can run much better but i do think he is looking for further. That being said, his last win was over 1200m on speed beating the very classy lord of the sky who later that prep ran Chautauqua to 0.1L in the Tj Smith.
4. Barbed: No disgrace first up from midfield finishing off nicely enough. Only run at this track didn’t place in the past. Looks a similar type of race for him. Doesn’t win often but last win over ball of muscle worth considering. Obviously win claims today.
5. Durendal: Don’t need to say much about him. I think he is a great horse and did since last prep as well. Back to 1200m is his right distance, the 1400m wasn’t right for him in my opinion. Loves FLemington and was HUGE last start even after doing stuff wrong. Weighted to win.
6. Office Bearer: Forgive run last start never got cover and stuck on well. Just not sure he will have much left in the tank today after such a short time between runs after that gut buster. Never won at track.
7. Decircles: Loves this track but hasn’t won in a long time. First up did alot wrong and found little.
8. Lonrockstar: Not the worst run first up when blocked for runs but was never winning. Has won at course and similar distance in the past on previous runs, but feel this bloke needs a few more runs to hit peaks.
9. Sarajevo: Jumped poorly but didn’t affect his run last start. Found one too good in Durendal. Can repeat the solid run today and looks well weighted compared to last start if going well enough.
10. Noela’s Choice: Not good enough at this distance on previous preps for mine. Take on.
11. Villopoto: Not on current form no.
12. Zupacharged: Up in weight today for the nice run 3rd last start. Has to improve again and not the type i believe will improve onwards to win this.
Comments: I really like Durendal and he is my clear top pick here, but there isn’t enough value in the $3.20 price. I would need $4 to be backing with confidence here. Sarajevo looks the key chance outside of him.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Durendal to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 2800m – Bagot Handicap
1. Sonntag: Just ignore the last start run. It was forgiveable and if you rate him on the Balarat run tow back, he is more than good enough to win this. Looks suited up to the 2800m and loves this track.
2. Mujadale: Obvious leader. Nice enough run 2nd to Tall Ship last start in the Werribee Cup. Looks well suited to the distance today and is the obvious leader.
3. Hartani: Impossible horse back today. WFA-G3 winner in ireland and handled good tracks over there… but his four runs in Australia over 2 years have resulted in long defeats.
4. Imperial Lass: Ran home well in the cup last start 3rd to tall Ship but well beaten Mujadale. Was blocked for runs but still wasn’t ever going to claim 2nd. Has to improve today but looks well enough weighted to run a bold race. 3 runs 0 places at track in past a concern.
5. Swacadelic: Running in quite a few races recently. I think he has a strong turn of foot suited to a Moonee Valley track but was found out by the longer straight last start at Sandown when loomed as the winner coming into the straight but never finished it off.
6. Danjeu: Won with ease last start at Sandown and will make the progression to this grade, very well weighted in all honesty. It was a very simple, easy win. The barrier is the only concern as well as the stronger tempo, untested out to the 2800m.
7. Tunes: Form has improved significantly after 15 runs in this prep, bit funny really. Last two runs have been out of this world good compared to what has been expected. Last start ran very well over 2500m and smashed a decent field. Has to improve here but is certainly a horse to consider.
8. Red Fella: Doesn’t win out of turn. Long time between wins. Current form not good enough.
9. Happy As Hell: Ran a very nice 2nd to Danjeu last start at Sandown. Had every possible chance and not well enough weighted to suggest a turn around here for mine. Poor barrier again as well.
10. Lucques: Found out over a further distance last start with a strong tempo set. Shocked by them coming to this. No thanks.
12. Trendsetter: Huge run 5th at Sandown last start over 2400m when missed the start and was ridden against his normal pattern to still flash home. Suited by distance and certainly flying. Pace will be on is the issue as well as the class of this race.
13. Subiaso: Blocked for runs last start at Sandown when running a decent 3rd. Never measured up in this class.
14. Bold Statement: Smashed them at Bendigo last start in BM-64 grade. Was fair over the 3000m at MV so you know he will get the distance at least. Has to improve.
Comments: Think this is an open and closed race with four key chances. The rest are all improvers who can run well and take places, but won’t pass all 4 of these strong runners. I think Sonntag represents huge value here off a forgive run… ran 0.8L 3rd to Junoob two back who would be clear favourite here at the same weight. No real value in the price of Imperial Lass or Mujadale for me while Danjeu at the price is slight value also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Back Sonntag for 0.5 units. Also back Danjeu for 1 unit.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – George Watson Handicap
1. Ihysahymn: Slow out, Blocked for runs final 100m but never a chance first up off the start and finish. Up to 1400m better suited by best runs have in the past been over much further. Top weight hurts.
2. British General: Running quite well this prep. Not suited to Flemington straight and back to around the bend helps a lot. Will be going forward to sit on speed or just off it. Has ability.
3. Burning Front: Simply ran it too fast last start out the front at Flemington and found one too good to run him down. Well back in class and fairly weighted here, looks very well suited from barrier 3. Doesn’t have to lead.
4. Del Prado: Strong win from the back first up at Sandown. Speed was on and time set very sound. Has to improve onwards again but does look well in here at the weights and from the barrier.
5. Tuscan Fire: Old mate over the hurdles last prep. Goes well first up and has won at this distance in the past but that was on a soft track. Just don’t dismiss fully at weights.
6. Chile Express: Not going well enough this prep on the two runs to date for mine. Take on.
7. Double Pockets: Been running well over in Adelaide this prep but hasn’t been winning recently. Big step up to run at Flemington and expect to win. Has the ability but not sure.
8. Abbasso: Proved to be a very handy horse in the top level last prep. Won in this class at Flemington as well previously. Never won first up but doesn’t worry me and the 1400m distance is suitable. Best runs good enough at weights.
9. Falago: Progressed to be a very good horse last prep over 1600m+. Never won first up and got better later into preps over further. Think this is a little bit too short first up for him. Take on.
10. Underestimation: Adelaide runner that has won in Open class over there… went to Darwin and failed to fire. First up and record first up isn’t great. Has to improve and find very best runs to measure up.
11. Mr Backchat: Every chance on speed and stuck on okay for 4th. Similar class here.. has the ability but not convinced he is the best on speed runner here at the weights.
12. Tudor: Not going well enough this prep.
Comments: Very happy to pay here on two horses. Burning Front is as game as the day is long and the horse will be in the finish back in this class. I have to be on. Abbasso is the other horse well weighted I need to be on here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 4, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Burning Front for 1.5 units @ $4.50. Back Abasso for 0.75 units @ $8
