Racing returns to Echuca on 31 December 2015. Yesterday didn’t exactly go to plan, but our 2nd bet got us out of trouble with a small profit. I thought today i’d find a maximum of one horse i was keen on bet on, but apart from a horse I have a huge opinion of based on past results being a massive price against average times in the first, i’ve found two other horses I think are massive overs and rated less than half the price being offered later in the day. Fingers are crossed we can land a few good bets today to finish off the year. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Echuca Race 1 – Margin Trader for 2.5 units @ $2.7 to win
Started $6.40 favourite in a 3YO-GP2 over in NZ and ran 3.5L 5th to Mongolian Khan over a similar distance to this. Previous run was 3.8L off Volkstoknbarrel. Too far back three runs back when showed his best run this prep at Bendigo in BM-70 grade over 1600m. Last start simply missed start, out the back and raced flat battling home. Top two came from midfield or more forward. Back to a 7 horse race with only two other chances to bet him and today those two chances are 1 coming out of a maiden and another that was beaten last start in that same race as he was in, having every chance on speed.
Echuca Race 6 – Prima for 1 unit @ $12/$3.40 Each-Way
Crazy price being bet today for this VERY talented horse. Last start won with ease in maiden grade over the 1460m distance. Up to 1600m is ideal today and he is getting to the right distances. Just ignore first up, he is a proven 2000m horse with a 3Y-Group2 2nd to Mongolian Khan and 3rd in similar grade over the 2000/2100m distances. He then dropped back to 3Y-SWP, much harder grade than this, and ran 0.3L 2nd. This horse was a $6 2nd favourite in a 3YO Group 3 at Morphetville at the end of last prep!!! The horse has had almost a MONTH between runs to train on, and it’s clear the horse wasn’t fully wound up last start to me. From barrier 7, he will get a perfect sit behind the obvious leaders in Leveraction and Zlatan and will get a strong enough tempo set to make it more of a staying race than a sprint which is what we are wanting.
Echuca Race 7 – Storm Approach for 0.75 units @ $15/$4 Each-Way
This 5YO Gelding was moved to the L Lake yard (only horse) after a very respectable first up run 1.7L 5th to Duke of Brunswick (Was in Moody stable). Duke of Brunswick has then gone on to run 0.1L 2nd in BM-84 on the weekend at Caulfield, Master Sommelier in BM-78 yesterday rahn 0.5L 2nd in a 15 horse race at Sandown, Siegestor who ran 4th then went to Flemington HCP grade and ran 3rd behind Precious Gem and Burning Front. Spirit or Lager hasn’t raced since, but was coming off a BM-70 win… the form lines are absolutely sound. Storm Approach has run 2nd since at a regional meeting on Boxing Day, but i’m convinced that was a lead in run for this today. In Jan 2015 he ran 0.1L 2nd in BM-70 grade at Sandown over 1600m… his last two runs have been simply too short over 1200m and 1100m and the step up to 1400m is so ideal. Barrier 6 is perfect today for a horse that can lead on previous form lines.. i’m expecting midfield at worst with a chance of leading as Baby Don’t Cry looks the only other horse that may lead from a wider barrier. Overall, the price is just simply wrong for this runner and i’m very happy to be taking a risk on it today.
