Welcome to The Profits form guide for 26 March 2016 at Meydan for the Dubai World Cup meeting. We will be on track for the meet and have been getting settled in all week in anticipation of a great night of racing. I hope to be very active on twitter throughout the meet so keep in contact with us all night. It’s a very tough World Cup night tipping wise but there are a few standouts bets on the card. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Meydan Race 5 – Ertijaal for 1.5 units @ $4.20 and Peniaphobia for 1 unit @ $7.60 to win.
Quite keen to bet here with a two horse play. Clear standouts on my ratings are Ertijaal and Peniaphobia. Ertijaal brings two very strong runs into this today and rates to win while Peniaphobia never runs a bad race and rates well enough to be in the finish as always, holding Group 1 wins in the recent past.
Next Best Bet
Meydan Race 3 – Vazirabad for 1.75 units @ $2.40 to win.
Stands out like a sore thumb in this race at the weights and simply on class. The second favourite is not genuine as was only backed by us in the Melbourne Cup due to the expected slow tempo, and it couldn’t finish better than 5th with a crawl out front! This is Vazirabad’s race to win and I think a win here will set us up strongly for the rest of the meeting.
Best Value Bet
Meydan Race 6 – Muarrab for 1 unit @ $7.20/$2.40 Each-Way
I’m quite taken by the price on offer for Muarrab here. It’s simply wrong. X Y Jet could very well be a superstar and hard to beat, but i’ll take the E/W price anyday of the week on Muarrab off that last start. I note quite a few others agree in the fact that X Y Jet is a incorrect price and won’t be surprised to see a drift throughout the day, so it may be worth taking the price on Muarrab early on.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Meydan Race 1 – 2000m – Dubai Kahayla Classic
No preview for this race as this is outside of my knowledge and i’d rather just watch.
Meydan Race 2 – 1600m – Godolphin Mile
1. One Man Band: Won 4 of last 5 races with only defeat here two runs back in Group 3 class when a respectable second. Won by a lazy 6 lengths last start.
2. Marking: Looks a nice type having won 3 from 5 runs. Much harder race than he has has measured up to in the past. Yes, back home he did run a 3.5L 2nd in a Group 1, but was beaten a long way for a reason. Nice enough win last start but has to improve again.
3. Le Bernardin: Group 2 winner three runs back, found a few too good the last two starts which is a concern and was beaten home by One Man Band two back. Weighted a little better today from a nice barrier.
4. Faulkner: Group 1 placed last start but was beaten 7.3L! Yet to measure up to this class of race just yet on past results and has been beaten by One Man Band in the past. Past two runs have to be considered strong enough form heading into this but he is 2000m back to 1600m today.
5. Maftool: Strong run first up beating Cool Cowboy who has gone on and won since. 3YO Group 3 winner over 1600m here in the past. Think we just ignore all the garbage in the middle out of the country and rate on best runs here which are more than good enough.
6. Gold City: Run 2nd 4 of his last 8…. but never gone close to a win this prep.
7. God’s Speed: Won 5 of last 7 races in easier conditions. Did win a Group 3 by about 4 lengths. Failed in a Group 3 after that though 5th. Has ability.
8. Cool Cowboy: Just beaten two back at course and distance coming off a win. Next start won very easy by 3.8L at Meydan. Going well enough.
9. Sloane Avenue: Hard to ignore his form coming into this today but also his very best runs. Group 2 2nd at course and distance at meeting last year. Run leading into this was only fair for mine.
10. Prayer for Relief: 2nd last in Group 1 company last start coming off a 3rd to Maftool. Four runs back Group 2 3rd to Le Bernardin. Has to improve past a few good types.
Comments: I get the feeling that Marking is the clear false favourite today over the 1600m distance where he is unproven. I also feel that Sloane Avenue is well under the odds based on needing to return to his very best form to measure up ahead of a few here. Maftool and One Man Band are the two standouts here at the prices on offer.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Maftool and One Man Band to win.
Meydan Race 3 – 3200m – Dubai Gold Cup
1. Vazirabad: Gone through the grades with class progressing from maiden grade in July last year through to a Group 3 win in October, Group 2 win in November and then finally a Group 1 win as well! Very best runs all shown over 3000m in the past and looks well suited here. Gets 3kg on the field apart from Paradise.
2. Paradise: Has run in the past in Group class but failed to place. Had to go back to Maiden and then Allow races to get wins the first two runs this prep. Massive step up in class here.
3. Suegioo: 6 runs over these distances in the past but yet to get a win. Continues to run well over these distances but has won just two races in the past!
4. Neo Black Dia: Japanese runner. Placed one from four runs over these distances. Best run was two back when 3rd in listed company… but well beaten in all Group competition recently. Best run 5th to Gold Ship would be good enough to go close here but that was a one off.
5. Star Empire: Never won at distance but always seems to run well. Group 2 third here last year to Brown Panther over distance. Did win over 2000m to start this prep but been 3L off in the next two runs.
6. Certerach: Beat home Star Empire last start when 2nd here over 2800m to Sheikhazyedroad. Previous form before that suggested he isn’t a superstar and needs to improve on past runs.
7. Big Orange: Coming off a 5th in the Melbourne Cup. He had every possible chance apart from the fact he wasn’t ridden correctly the final 800m when he was meant to be let go instead of being sat on until the final 500m. Group 2 winner over this distance. Not suited to strong staying races.
8. Manatee: Group 2 winner around this time last year in a 5 horse race. Previous to that 2400m Group 2 winner in 15 horse race. Ran 5.3L off Treve. Last three runs were average at best. Even last start well beaten. Hard to see measuring the step up to distance on current form.
9. Meadow Creek: Well beaten by to class horses the last two runs but wasn’t far off a few others in this race last start. Has to improve.
10. Tellina: Group 1 third on record. Since arriving at Meydan has failed to place in all runs to date and looks one that has to improve significantly to get this distance.
11. Haafaguinea: Never run the distance. Was a nice enough 2nd to Tryster over 2000m two back but up in distance last start Postponed destroyed him.
Comments: It’s hard to see Vazirabad getting beaten by any of these today. Big Orange is very flaky and somehow is second favourite which says alot about the class here. Barrier, weight and pretty much everything is in the corner of Vazirabad.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Vazirabad for 1.75 units @ $2.40 to win.
Meydan Race 4 – UAE Derby – 1900m
1. Frank Conversation: Won 3 from 6 coming into this including a Group 3 last start in a 13 horse field. Respectable form lines but has to improve to beat the very best here.
2. Polar River: Short priced favourite. Four runs for four wins. Massive 13L win two back over 1600m in 3Y0-LR grade then last start a strong win over Vale Dori by 0.8L over this distance. Good barrier. Hard to see being beaten.
3. Lani: Japanese runner. Nice enough form lines in 1600-1800m races in the past but listed grade last start well beaten on the day.
4. Yu Change: Another Japanese runner. Has been competing at higher levels than Lani but hasn’t been winning. Group 1 4th by 5L two runs back and Group 3 6th by 3.3L last start. Well back in class here back to own year level but does need improvement. Looks value.
5. Vale Dori: Gone through the grades this prep and won a Group 1 race two back over 1500m. Ran a close 2nd to Polar River last start. Will be there in the finish and if Polar River is slightly off, she will be the one to pounce.
6. On The Rocks: Japanese runner that has failed to measure up all prep outside of maiden grade. Take on.
7. Lazzam: Well beaten last two starts at course and distances by a good type in Market Rally. Quite a few to beat here.
Comments: Polar River is the one to beat today. There are no questions about that. I think Vale Dori is the only horse capable of that today. While they may both be at equal weights today, the important thing to remember is that Vale Dori is coming down from 59.5kg to 57.5kg which for a 3YO filly is a big deal as some just fail to carry weight as well as others. On the other hand, the favourie is 55kg down to 53kg which for mine is less of a weight drop overall. Polar River is the top pick here, but on the prices available, Vale Dori can win and is the right price to back.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Vale Dori to win.
Meydan Race 5 – 1000m – Al Quoz Sprint
1. Naadirr: Failed to win in this class of race recently and best runs have been placings in Group 3 class. Win would surprise.
2. Jungle Cat: Group 2 placed in 2014, he ran very well last start when 0.1L 2nd to Fityaan over 1000m. Could have found best form heading into this.
3. Bel Canto: Japanese runner. Group 3 winner over 1000m and 1200m. Failed last two runs in Grouip 1 and Group 3 company. First up today.
4. Not Listenin’tome: Group 3 win last prep then ran nicely enough in Group 2 and Group 1 company getting within 1L of a win, but found a few too good. Group 3 win next start over the 1000m. Won nicely enough first up in a handicap. Even in Australia he was just a little short of the very best.
5. Peniaphobia: One of the key chances today. Group 1 winner two back. Third last start. 2nd and third the previous two starts including behind Able Friend. Clearly a top class sprinter and looks well suited.
6. Ertijaal: Devastating win last start at course over 1000m. Previous run was as good. Previous preps form are just out the window. Rate on very best runs.
7. Sole Power: Nice run first up when 3rd to Fityaan who in comparison was beaten 2L by Ertijaal the previous start. Has to improve but he will be figuring in the race late as always.
8. Goldream: Group 1 winner two back but last start was very very poor at course and distance. Have to take on with current race and on last start.
9. Buffering: Old mate Buffering never runs a bad race. 4 wins from 6 runs over 1000m in the past. Runs well down the straight. I think he will stick in it for a long way but find a few too good.
10. Muthmir: Group 1 placed but hasn’t got the score on the board. Group 2 wins on the record over the sprint distances. First up run was very disappointing heading into this. Take on for mine at the odds.
11. Fityaan: Nice enough win last start which was a bit of a surprise on recent form for everyone. It made no sense to me or any form person. Has to improve again.
12. Sir Maximilian: Group 3 winner last year at a similar meeting then ran 6th in the Group 1 behind Sole Power. Since then only won a Min-100 race. Only fair last start.
13. Lady Shipman: Group 1 second two back to finish prep. Last start won well heading into this but this is MUCH harder. Wouldn’t shock to see her measure up.
14. Mongolian Saturday: Group 1 winner. Failed to measure up to the world level last start though with a 4.5L 5th to Peniaphobia.
Comments: Quite keen to bet here with a two horse play. Clear standouts on my ratings are Ertijaal and Peniaphobia. With around $4.20 and $7.6 being bet, we can bet both to win equal amount back for a nice result!
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Ertijaal for 1.5 units @ $4.20 and Peniaphobia for 1 unit @ $7.60 to win.
Meydan Race 6 – 1200m – Dubai Golden Shaheen
1. Rich Tapestry: Group class horse. Always runs well over the 1200m distance but apart from the win two back at Meydan, has failed to get a win in a while. Has to improve.
2. Master Kochanwong: Mainly been running around in the lesser grades. Got a decent win first up but has to improve on that to be winning this.
3. X Y Jet: Hard to argue with this blokes run of form. Won 6 races in a row. Group 3 win over 1200m by 9.3L three runs back and then last start 1.3L in Group 3. Much harder class of race though. I’m not convinced he should be favourite.
4. Kifaah: Well beaten last three runs over 1200m coming off a good win. Did run second in last two beaten by good horses.
5. Domineer: Handicap horse at very best. Failed to fire at the top level in a long time. Take on for mine but do know a few rate its chances.
6. Super Jockey: Group 1 second on record from this meeting last year. Since then failed to really show much other than a 2nd to notlistenintome, twice when well beaten.
7. Muarrab: Massive win last start at course and distance. The ratings out of that race are hard to argue with and he looks a massive price today.
8. Confrontation: Loves to run well but not win. Did get a Group 3 win last start over 1600m. Previous runs saw 5 seconds of last 6 runs. Best runs over further.
9. Morawij: Listed winner. Has to make a huge jump here today to place.
10. Reynaldothewizard: Group 3 winner last year. Well beaten first up by Rich Tapestry who has since been well beaten. On best, he is still a bit off these. 10YO.
Comments: I’m quite taken by the price on offer for Muarrab here. It’s simply wrong. X Y Jet could very well be a superstar and hard to beat, but i’ll take the E/W price anyday of the week on Muarrab off that last start domination.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Muarrab for 1 unit @ $7.20/$2.40 Each-Way
Meydan Race 7 – 1800m – Dubai Turf
1. Forries Waltz: Going through the grades this prep with a Group 2 win last start over Ertijaal. Has to take another step up here but has ability.
2. Tryster: Looks a very good type of horse. Group 1 win last start at Meydan was very good. The bubble didn’t burst and this horse will continue to go n from that. Good barrier here. The horse to beat.
3. Forjatt: Best seen in lesser class grades such as Listed and Min-85. Has placed in Group 3 before but hard to see the step up.
4. Ghaamer: Just missed last start at course over 1600m when 0.1L 2nd to Safety Check in Group 2 class. Going the right way but looks a step beyond reasonable expectations.
5. Farrier: Had his chances last start but Tryster was far too good for him. Going through the grades well but hard to see the improvement needed.
6. Flamboyant: Won two in a row in Group 2 class and they were not too close in the end either. Has ability but isn’t top class either. Can run well.
7. The Corsican: Group 3 winner two back at Newbury. Previous runs was 3.3L off Free Eagle in a Group 1. Last start 4.5L off the winner in Group 1 class at Ascot. Very best runs have been over slightly further and peak was a one off.
8. Intilaaq: 5L winner at Haydock last start but didn’t exactly have to beat too much. That being said, he is a good type and going the right way. Can run well.
9. Harry’s Son: Every chance the last few runs but well beaten every time including last start by Tryster. Hard to see the improvement.
10. Euro Charline: Group 1 placed runner over 1600m and previously Grou 1 winner over 1900m at Arlington. First up had every chance in MUCH easier grade FM-GP2 when beaten 2nd by Very Special by 2.5L. Others preferred.
11. Very Special: Going through the grades with Listed placed runs last prep. Came into this prep with two strong FM-Group2 wins over Excilly and Euro Charline. Has to improve again but is going the right way.
12. Ertijaal: Every chance last start when 3rd to Tryster. Group 1 placed previously. Has to improve.
13. Basateen: Nice win last start at Meydan which was a bit of a surprise. Has shown ability in the past. Has to improve onwards again even after the nice run.
14. Real Steel: Japanese import that seems to be one of the main threats today. Group 1 placed runner over 2000m and 3000m. First up run in Group 2 class a close 3rd to Duramente is a strong form line to bring into this today. Barrier 14 a disadvantage. Has to bring his A game but is clearly good enough in the class he has been facing in the past.
15. Gabrial: Group 1 third to Solow to end last prep. Previous runs failed to get a win for a long time. Hard to have.
Comments: Tryster is the horse to beat here and looks the real deal. Real Steel is the value of the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Tryster to win. Also have a smaller bet on Real Steel to win.
Meydan Race 8 – 2410m – Dubai Sheema Classic
1. Last Impact: Japanese runner. Always runs well having run within 1-2L of wins in Group 1 class the past 8 runs. Did run 2nd in a Group 1 losing by 2L over 2400m. Has the ability.
2. Sheikhzayedroad: Very nice win voer further last start at course. Didn’t have to beat too many decent types that day so this is a nmuch harder race back in class where he has failed to fire in a long while.
3. The Blue Eye: Last start Group 1 winner last start in Doha. Obviously well bred but not exactly sure how well that form will hold up here against the worlds best?
4. Duramente: Another Japanese horse. This time, a Group 1 winner.. having won two of his last two attempts in Group 1 class over 2000-2400m. First up run over a lesser distance in Group 2 company he won as well. The real deal!
5. One and Only: A lesser chance of the Japanese horses. Always runs okay but not a top Japanese horse and failed to place in a while in Group company.
6. Gailo Chop: Group 1 winner over 2000m last prep in Australia. Didn’t beat much that day. Hard to see for mine on best runs in past at this distance.
7. Postponed: Very strong easy win last start at course and distance in Group 2 company. Won two previous starts in Group 2 and Group 1 class also in France and England at the top level. Clear top class horse!
8. Highland Reel: Group 1 winner last start at Sha Tin over course and distance. 3rd in Cox Plate to Winx. Not convinced his very best is good enough to beat all these, but he will be right there in the finish!
9. Dariyan: Group 2 winner last prep coming out of maidens! Got to the top level with placings in Group 1 class. Group 2 placed behind Postponed last start. Others preferred.
Comments: For mine, Highland Reel is massive unders here and a clear take on. This looks a battle of Postponed and Duramente for mine based on runs to date and form leading into this. My slight lean goes towards the favourite Postponed, but I don’t think I could take the price on offer on either horse with confidence the other wouldn’t win.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Postponed to win.
Meydan Race 9 – 2000m – Dubai World Cup
1. Keen Ice: Well beaten first run here behind Special Fighter. Previous run was average at best also. Two good runs last prep over 1800-2000m when 2nd to American Pharoah and getting the win.
2. Mshawish: Comes into this race with some solid form mines after Group 3 and Group 1 wins over in the US. Previous Group 1 winner, he had found a few too good at the start of last prep. Well beaten here last year by Solow over 1800m. Very best runs have been 1600-1800m.
3. Gun Pit: Every chance last start when well beatne by Special Fighter. Previous runs suggest he is one we can take on with best runs in Handicap class.
4. Mubtaahij: Hasn’t measured up in the top level Group 1 class. Was a very good 3YO but doesn’t seem to have gone on with it. Take on.
5. Special Fighter: I’m not sure many people saw the win coming last start when Special Fighter demolished the field at course and distance. Previous runs were okay but not great. The 5L win two back was good. Hard horse to catch but on it’s day it goes well.
6. Candy Boy: Hasn’t won since a Group 2 in 2014. Hasn’t run since this race last year when 4th by 9.3L. Hard to suggest.
7. Vadamos: Group 2 winner. Best runs in the past have been in lesser grade or simply easier races. One to take on.
8. Hokko Tarumae: Last start Listed winner. Two previous runs were in Group 1 class when placed and 5th. Has ability on previous starts… but has to clearly improve.
9. Frosted: Hard to dispute that he is the challenger today to the favourite in California Chrome. Second on the record to American Pharoah in the past. Very strong lead in run which is hard to dispute as good form, but the form before that was below the mark needed here. Personally, I think he isn’t all the hype suggests and the price is simply under the correct odds. Will be in my F4 figures, but not top pick.
10. Hoppertunity: Always looked a nice type but has seemed to fall short of wins quite a few times in the past. Well beaten by California Chrome first up by 2.3L. Last start won well in Group 2 company. Can run well and good top 3 chance.
11. California Chrome: Clearly the horse to beat. Won three of his last five runs with a close 2nd to Shared Belief in the lead up to this race last year when 2nd to Prince Bishop. A year older and much stronger, he comes into this off two strong wins. Rates to win.
12. Teletext: Last start Group 1 winner over 2400m by 5.5L. Wasn’t much to beat that day though according to ratings.
Comments: California Chrome is the horse to beat. I think Hoppertunity will run well while Special Fighter and Mshawish outside of the obvious are horses to watch.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: California Chrome to win.
