Welcome to The Profits preview for Derby Day from Flenington on 28 October 2016. The scene is set for an amazing day of racing with the sun shining down on us. We are in for a huge 4 days of racing over the Flemington carnival and I will be on track to bring you all the relevant updates as they happen. I’m very excited for Derby day and really feel we are on the money with some big value on offer. Feel free to share our form with your friends as always and have a great day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Extreme Choice – 3 units @ $3.15. Star Turn – 2 units @ $4.70
Two clear standout runners in this race for me. Clearly wanting to take on Astern down the straight over the 1200m distance with these class runners that have done it at the top level and have the turn of foot needed to be suited to the straight races.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Oceanographer 2.5 units @ $2.80. Real Love 1 units @ $6.00. Rose of Virginia 0.5 units @ $71.
Oceanographer has been very well backed here and for good reasons well suited by the track and distance. Real Love is a forgive run from the Caulfield Cup and can run a very strong race. Rose of Virginia is well suited finally up to a suitable distance and is a massive blowout chance. Pace will be on giving all runners their chance.
Best Value Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Great Esteem – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $71/$17
A thrilling Group 1 race that will be led around by Great Esteem. He was under half a length off taking out a Group 1 last start at Caulfield over this distance and his consistent form shows he is more than capable of scoring the upset here with key chances sitting off the pace today.
Other Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $7.00. Euro Angel 1 unit @ $13.00.
Whispering Brook is going to set a medium to strong tempo with the low weight out front and be very hard to get past in the final 200m of the race. Euro Angel is massive overs today and should be in single figures – she has the X factor to come over the top late with the long straight a positive factor from a good draw.
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 10, 12, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 13, 16
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11
Comment: Nothing easy at all about the Quaddie today! I’m expecting a big dividend overall and will be happy to take a small % of it.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – The Carbine Club Stakes
1. Hey Doc: Three wins in a row and then a very strong run 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas heading into this from off the speed. Wide barrier today so expect them to push forward and potentially lead them around here. Flying right now and looks very well in.
2. Nikitas: Seemed ot have every chance last start over 1400m when should have been able to handle being wide throughout off the slow tempo. Struggle to suggest here.
3. Morton’s Folk: Just forgive last start run when found no luck at all when flying home. Good barrier today and will have no excuses.
4. Throssell: Came into this prep well fanicied and has failed to get in win on the board. Very well beaten two back over 1800m and found nothing over 2000m last start. Step back here but hard to have.
5. Bezel: Three runs for three wins this prep in easier grades of races. Big step up here today and even at the weights it’s a struggle for him to be considered a top chance.
6. High Mist: Failed to make ground last start over 2000m. Ran well over 1800m previous start and won over 1600m. Back to 1600m distance here today and should run well enough from a poor barrier.
7. Acatour: Well backed favourite last start and every chance on speed found a few far too good. Wants a tough slog and there doesn’t look a load of speed on here today.
8. Mount Panorama: Ran last two back and then last start held up for runs. Hard to know what he will find here but we know he won’t be as fit as others when it counts up to 1600m.
9. Violate: Nice run 2nd last start at Caulfield behind Peacock when flew home from out back off a slow tempo. Up to 1600m should be no issues and looking to improve here.
10. Comin’ Through: Respectable run last start fairly beaten in much easier grade of race behind Niccolance. Has to clearly improve on form to date up in distance but I can see it happening. One to watch.
11. So You Too: Maiden winner on heavy. BM-70 winner over an okay group of horses. Huge step up to VIC city grade.
12. So Poysed: Maiden winner last start and only just. Simply hard to suggest he measures up here.
Comments: I can’t see this being run along with any huge amounts of speed and that suits two key runners here and disadvantages another. I have to take on Acatour who is looking for a much stronger speed. Hey Doc and Morton’s Folk both look strong chances with proven form lines heading into this from nice spots.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Hey Doc and Morton’s Folk.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Mumm Wakeful Stakes
1. Missrock: Surprisingly up to 2000m today and i’m not sure what to make of it. Clearly an eye-catching run two back over 1400m but last start didn’t make up much ground over 1600m. Hard to know what to make of her here.
2. Pretty Punk: 2200m 3rd in the Geelong Classic heading into this was a solid lead in run. Back to 2000m which is fair and put into the right type of race. Has ability and have to respect.
3. Alliterate: Going through the grades. Close 2nd last start at Randwick over 1600m and straight up to 2000m. Should have no dramas staying based on last start and will be on speed all the way. Don’t dismiss.
4. Sebring Dream: Will be going back and coming home late. Flew home for 6th two back over 1600m in the Guineas. Last start was never a chance simply too far back on a day that wasn’t suiting back markers. Top chance here.
5. Bella Sorellastra: Out the back and came home strongly last start with Sebring Dream but was beaten to the line which says a lot. Poor barrier so won’t have any chance settling better today. Suited enough.
6. Tiamo Grace: Fair run 2nd to Eleonora last start at Caulfield from a good spot. Thought she had every possilbe chance personally from that position and wasn’t good enough. Others may get better ru.ns today and be able to come over the top. Looks slightly unders in the market.
7. Waterloo Sunset: Expect a much better run here today than last start. Ran very well two back at course over 1600m. Has ability and nice barrier today.
8. Lamma Hilton: Cummings runner down from up north. Only won a maiden and failed in BM-67. Struggle to suggest.
9. Outback Rain: Fairly beaten last start after a nice enough run 5th behind Inside Agent at course. Up to 2000m a bit of a concern.
10. Whyouask: Fairly beaten last start at Caulfield. Looks a place chance at best.
11. Florida Keys: Maiden winner over 1500m straight up to 2000m and this class. Very hard to see the natural progression here.
12. Bettyrae Ruby: Excuses last start when galloped on.. but ran poorly the previous start over 1600m and has only won a maiden.
13. My Girl Chilly: Maiden win at Donald last start heading into this. Was a nice enough maiden win but i’d struggle to suggest her to place here.
14. Queen of Zealand: Still a maiden and was beaten 4.8L last start over 1700m. No thanks.
15. Almalita: Still a maiden beaten fairly leading over 1600m last start. Struggle to see the improvement.
16. Penthouse Kitten: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start.
17. Toffee Nose: Couldn’t place in maidens!
Comments: A tough race to get us flowing into the day at lunch time. Sebring Dream is the best horse in the race and the only way I could lean here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Sebring Dream to win.
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Sensis Stakes
1. Wild Rain: Ignore the fact she went around last start when ran a very poor 5th in Group 2 company at Caulfield. Previous three runs are more than good enough to suggest she is well in here even at the weights. Only issue is 4 runs 0 wins at this track in the past but she handles it for mine.
2. Sheidel: Consistent type that just keeps on winning or running well. Fairly beaten first up when 2.1L 4th to Wild Rain but gets 1.5kg on her today. First run down the straight the big concern.
3. I Love It: 2 runs 0 places at this track in the past. First up ran nicely enough but still well beaten 3.9L off the winner in FM-LR and this looks harder.
4. Savoureux: Get back run on type that will be well back again but probably better suited on a straight track. Good run 3rd two back behind Spirit Bird but clearly has to prove herself at the next level up.
5. Tempt Me Not: Cummings runner that is first up (never won first up) down the straight where she has run 2nd in Group 3 class as a 3YO. Last prep ran consistently well in the easier 3YO group races getting a win over Pearls at Randwick before being well beaten at the top level in Group 1 class. Clearly needs to have come back bigger and better, but she does have the progression ability.
6. Take Pride: Her best is more than good enough to measure up here, but from the past 10 runs we have only seen that peak once. Horrible last start compared. Take on.
7. Almighty Girl: First prep went through the grades and scored a Group 3 win. First up she showed nothing at all and looks hard to have here.
8. Palazzo Pubblico: Was hard to fancy first up over the 1100m but really finished off strongly and won well at Caulfield. Staying at the distance and down the straight looks well suited.
9. Alucirnari: Blocked for runs at critical stages last start but not sure she was ever winning to be fair. Clearly has ability but failed her first run down the straight last prep. Has to improve.
10. Vezelay: Nice enough run 3rd last start at Caulfield when fairly beaten on the day. Never won down the straight but will improve for the first up run.
11. Super Cash: Scratched behind the barriers last start which is an issue coming into this a run short. Has won down the straight beating a very good type in Sooboog last prep. Never far off and is a clear class runner. Barrier only negative.
12. Chloe in Paris: Nice enough run 7th last start well back in grade. Won 2 from 3 down the straight so you have to believe she looks much better suited here going forward and running her own race.
13. Viddora: Ran a nice race last start in Group 2 class coming off a good 2nd behind Heatherly and beating Ocean Embers before that. A strong form line horse that is having her first start down the straight. Don’t overlook.
14. Private Secretary: Loves to run a second. Group class horse clearly and has always just been too far back in running. Looks ideal today down the straight and goes very well first up – gets in well weighted also. Good enough to win!
15. Echo Gal: On speed and fairly beaten to end last prep. Goes okay first up but never run at track and best isn’t up to this.
16. Rule The River: Nice enough run first up over this distance fairly beaten by Egyptian Symbol. First run ever down the straight and has to improve. Has ability.
17. Estaminet: Won down the straight last prep in easier class. Wide throughout first up over the 955m. Big step up in class here and a bit of an unknown, but she is a class horse from on speed.
18. Aegean Sea: On speed last start at Caulfield ran a blinder to just miss. Suited by Flemington today and is flying. Will go close.
19. Aunty Mo: Nice enough on speed runs the past two races but fallen out when it counted. Can’t see her improving to win this.
20. Zara Bay: FM-LR 2nd last start in much easier grade. Has to improve up in class.
21. Belsapphire: Stormed home and looked a nice type last start. Still either way I couldn’t touch to win here.
Comments: A 20 runner race down the straight doesn’t exactly get me excited and neither does this field. I would have to bet with the value runner in the race being Private Secretary.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Private Secretary E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 2500m – Lexus Stakes
1. Junoob: Ran well enough in the Metrop before a nice listed win next start. Previous start G3 2nd behind ALlergic. Never placed at track a bit of a concern but always seems to run well at these distances.
2. Real Love: Just ignore last start when well fancied in the Caulfield Cup and ran very well for 4th ridden incorrectly. Maps perfectly today with the speed expected to be on out the front. Jockey change a huge bonus with Rawiller back onboard.
3. Tally: A more realistic aim for this bloke after a failed run in the Caulfield Cup. Not convinced this distance is going to find the very best for him, but he clearly has more ability than he showed last start. Win wouldn’t be a total shock but others preferred on current form at the price.
4. Pentathlon: A solid run third behind Grand Marhsal last start at Moonee Valley in the cup. Stays at the distance and will have trained onwards. Minor chance.
5. Tom Melbourne: Ran a super race last start back to the 2000m. First time 2500m today is certainly another query. Going the right way about things after that last start run and will like the track presented today. Well enough weighted to run well.
6. Hippopus: Horrible run last start and got smashed by 12 lengths. Previous run no better either. Up to a more correct distance here but it’s really a struggle to see him going even remotely close.
7. De Little Engine: Old mate ran a bottler in the Caulfield Cup all things considered for 9th. Nice enough weighted here and suited back to this track over 2500m. Much easier today but still has to improve.
8. Oceanographer: Never suited last start in the Geelong Cup when sat out the back and was left with several lengths to make up on the leaders at the home turn. Ran home very well and looks very well suited here to improve onwards and go to the next level. Very well weighted and a huge chance.
9. Black Tomahawk: Nice enough 3rd last start in listed grade beaten 5 lengths. Has been running well without winning in Handicap etc. Can’t see winning here but big place chance.
10. Rose of Virginia: Blinkers first time. Put the writing on the wall last start in the G3 Coongy behind Tom Melbourne when held up for a run at critical stages. Up to 2500m and head onto 3200m and the Melbourne Cup looks very well suited here. Going VERY well and looks well over the correct odds.
11. The Bandit: Beaten 11L last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. Hasn’t shown anything this prep after the first up run. Take on.
12. Transfer Allowance: Boots off first time. Ran well in the Moe Cup for 3rd at big odds. Back to dryer today not great. First time at distance but does stay. Hard to suggest for the win.
Comments: Real Love and Oceanographer are the two clear standouts in the race while Rose of Virginia is the massive race value. I just have to take on Tom Melbourne today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Oceanographer 2.5 units @ $2.80. Real Love 1 units @ $6.00. Rose of Virginia 0.5 units @ $71.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Coolmore Stud Stakes
2. Extreme Choice: Trialed very well down the straight so should have no issues at all today. First up from a terrible barrier sat second last and flew home to win the G1 Moir Stakes. Looked well suited here up to 1200m and gets the conditions to suit. Will take a very good type to beat him today.
3. Astern: 1200m win first up this prep was lucky to beat Star Turn IMO who was ridden poorly. G1 win next start over 1400m was his best run of the prep before a good run 2nd in the Roman Consul from out the back in a 6 horse race. First time down the straight.. I’m convinced this guy wants further and I’m happy to take him on at the price today.
4. Flying Artie: Nice enough win firs tup in the Blue Sapphire beating a second rate bunch of runners IMO – but that’s why it was a Group 3. This is the testingm material today.. only had one run down the straight in the past but he goes well enough here.
5. Star Turn: Huge run last start at Caulfield 3-wide no cover when sprinted away from them with ease and put 3 lengths on Fell Swoop. Previous two runs were very strong and should have beat Astern two back. Will sit on speed and has the turn of foot to go with them. Looks a key rival to the favourites.
6. Russian Revolution: Got it all his own way first up but was obviously still very good on the day running well to beat Astern. First time down the straight and while he is a good horse, others do look better suited.
7. Saracino: Nice win first up down the straight but last two starts has been well beaten over further distances. Step back to 1200m certainly better suited but does want it wetter than this to find the very best form.
8. Archives: Nice enough win in easier class at Moonee Valley last week. Previous runs suggest he is going well but others are preferred here.
9. Derryn: Sat closer than normal last start and ran very well for a close 3rd behind Flying Artie when never really a threat. Should run well here but really hard to see him beating them all.
10. Manolo Blahniq: Who? 5th in the Blue DIamond from out the back and wasn’t a bad run at all. Hard to see winning but could snap 4th?
Comments: Very happy to play here around the two best horses in the race over the 1200m with Extreme Choice and Astern
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Extreme Choice – 3 units @ $3.15. Star Turn 2 units @ $4.70
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – Myer Classic
1. Rising Romance: Hayes says her track work is the best he has ever seen leading into this and should bounce back and run well. Loves a tough race and I don’t expect this to be run ‘slow’. WFA-G1 2nd first up was the testing example.
2. First Seal: She was good winning last start at Caulfield but without the win to stop Tycoon Tara, would she have won? I doubt it. Third up and will certainly be peaking up to the 1600m.. but she will need luck from barrier 1 to get out at the right time and on my ratings will need to improve onwards to win here.
3. Zanbagh: Previously retired but then won again. Two runs this prep well beaten both times. Hard to suggest currently even with the forgive run last start.
4. Danish Twist: Out the back last start in a race that suited those closer to the speed. Ran home well enough. Previous start in WFA-G2 also ran very well. Maps nicely to sit closer today if she jumps with them. Good horse.
5. Heavens Above: Fairly beaten 7th in Group 1 last start with a very low weight. Up in class and up 6kg. Has to improve and doesn’t have the best winning record over this distance but does go well over it. Barrier hurts chances.
6. French Emotion: Tough win two back at course over 1400m. Up to 1600m today looks a big mistake for mine for a horse that has clearly been better over the 1200-1400m range, but hey what do i know! Good barrier today to get a nice spot and will get the correct firm track. Has a turn of foot which is the most important factor for winning these races. If she settles she can win.
7. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Easy win second up off a slow tempo which suited and then last start got another race with a slow tempo that suited. Horrible barrier and goes back to near last today. Won’t get any favours.
8. Serene Majesty: Massive support for her last start at the 1600m when went back and ran on okay, but was never really a threat to the winner at all. Go back again from the barrier today and first time at this track. Hard horse to catch but on her day she can be really good.
9. Pearls: Every chance on speed last start at Caulfield and just didn’t have the sprint to get there. Won in FM-GP3 first up this prep over the 1300m. Never placed at 1600m.
10. Dixie Blossoms: Huge speed on last start at Randwick and she came from the clouds (last) to rattle home and claim the lot of them. Barrier 4 today you would expect her to be closer to the speed. Looks a huge chance.
11. Denmagic: Huge run first up over the 1200m when stormed home but next two starts have been disappointing up in class and distance. Up to 1600m doesn’t look like it will do the trick either from a good barrier.
12. Euro Angel: Massively strong win last start over the 1600m at Caulfield. Back to the Flemington track is a big positive and she proved to have no issues last start with a firm track either. Clearly a top chance.
13. Pure Pride: Been running well over 1400m and last start almost pinched a big win having a lot go wrong in running. Step up in class again here the big negative.
14. Whispering Brook: Probably should have won the guineas last start if ridden on speed. Finds herself the clear leader in the race and will be setting a very solid speed out front. 49kg and hard to run down.
15. I Am a Star: Tough run last start at Moonee Valley on a soft track that probably didn’t suit her. The bias probably got her also. Will get a nice spot off the pace and should have her shot if good enough.
Comments: Another race that is very wide open, but there are several ‘chances’ i want to be taking on due to where they map or their lead in runs. Whispering Brook is my top pick here only just from Euro Angel who is a massive price in the betting. Dixie Blossoms looks the main danger.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 10, 12, 14
Strategy: Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $7.00. Euro Angel 1 unit @ $13.00.
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – AAMI Victoria Derby
1. Sacred Elixir: Clearly the top rated runner in the field today, Sacred Elixir was a very strong winner last start at Moonee Valley. There is certainly a few queries over the short turn around today though and also over the 2500m, but he has measured up to every task along the way and is going to be hard to beat.
2. Prized Icon: Never a chance last start at Moonee Valley when in a horrible spot and never really asked for an effort. Is he a 2500m horse is the big query today. Never won from 6 starts on good tracks but never missed a place either. Good run two back.
3. Swear: Should have won last start over the 2000m when layed out at a vital stage in the straight costing him about a length with 0.5L the beaten margin on the day. Looks very well suited today from the barrier sitting midfield at worst and will be enjoying the extra distance. Out and out stayer on breeding and top class.
4. Rocketeer: It would take a brave man not to have this horse in their quinella to run second having run second his past four runs. Was meant to be coming to the end of his prep and sent around again last start and ran very well 2nd behind Good Standing. Barrier will do him in today but expect another bolting run home.
5. Morvada: Went around huge odds last start at Moonee Valley and ran a very game 2nd to Sacred Elixir. Will be on speed today and will be enjoying the extra 500m of distance today based on what i’ve seen to date. Is he really good enough to win this is the big query.
6. Inference: Has had a fairly soft prep heading into this today which is a massive worry with a slow paced race last start certainly not sending him over the top for this run today. Horror barrier will have him further back than hoped also a big negative.
7. Captain Duffy: Geelong Classic winner and he will love the course and distance today coming off some average runs prior to the win last start. Respect as maps well.
8. Silvera: Well backed last start at Moonee Valley but didn’t find a lot at all when asked to show something. Has the breeding to get this distance but i’m not convinced on what i’ve seen.
9. Wine Bush: Nice win two back at course over 1800m…. but clearly not very well suited last start when the pace wasn’t genuine. Horror barrier but will be pushing forward to get an okay spot hopefully but every chance to get caught wide. Minor chance.
10. So Si Bon: Doesn’t exactly scream at me as a 2500m strong staying type on the runs to date but this yard are pretty good at hiding ability. Has been there or there abouts the past few runs.
11. Kent: Not sure what to make of this bloke at all. He was good 2nd up and then the next two starts fairly beaten. Doesn’t look a 2500m winner in this grade on previous runs.
12. Highlad: Over here for a reason. Terrible run last start. Will be pushing forward today but I can’t suggest a win.
13. Beach Life: Good run on last start at Caulfield for 4th behind Good Standing. Will appreciate a stronger tempo today and could run a place.
14. Tumultuous: Ran home very well last start in the Geelong Classic from too far back. Horror barrier here. Group 3 5th three back on record. Looks a step below the best here if i’m honest.
15. Hollywood Mo: Good enough run 2nd but fairly beaten on the day last start. Struggle to see the improvement to be the winner here.
16. All Out of Love: Will get the distance today but even the yard suggest he is a place chance at best. Can’t have.
17. Peter John: CL1 winner heading into this. Couldn’t win BM-59 grade runs before that. Not sure about even a place.
18. Anaheim: Maiden winner heading into this and it took five runs to break that record as favourite 4 of those races. Will stay but struggle to suggest.
19. Shine Tak Star: CL1 winner (couldn’t even get a maiden) straight into this. No thanks.
20. Zoffman: Not the worst runner here today and won his maiden well two back, but a place chance at very best if got a run.
Comments: I have this as really a two horse race between Sacred Elixir and Swear on my ratings at the top and the value is clearly with Swear.. but we can back both!
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Back Sacred Elixir and Swear to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Cantala Stakes
1. Palentino: Blinkers off. Horrible performance running last at Randwick over the 1600m last stat. Previous start fairly beat Black Heart Bart on a soft track at course and distance. Was it too far last start? Won 3 from 4 at track and only loss was in a protest. Clearly one to consider in numbers with a return to his best being good enough.
2. The United States: Suited last start at Moonee Valley over the 1600m beating an average bunch of horses in a sit and sprint. Won’t have exactly trained on for that run but that does allow him to back up here also. Never won at track but does handle it fine. Should appreciate the speed on but will get a long way back in running.
3. Stratum Star: A bit too far back last start at Caulfield but ran on well enough. Better barrier today will see him topped off and running well up to 1600m more forward, but query is over the fact he has never won over 1600m from 6 runs.
4. He’s Our Rokkii: Won five in a row (three this prep) including a Group 1 last start. Maps to get much further back in running than previous start but clearly going the right way about it all and should go close again.
5. Le Romain: Four runs for no win this prep, but that being said he keeps running consistently well in Group class. Stays at the 1600m today after fairly being beaten by a few runners last start behind Hauraki. Has to improve onwards.
6. Thunder Fantasy: Huge win last start at Randwick in Open class over 1400m with 63kg. Down 8kg today up in class obviously. Has the ability to run well and win with tempo to suit from a very good barrier.
7. Voodoo Lad: Found one too good two back at Caulfield in Group 1 class in Bon Aurum who has failed since. Good win last start at Caulfield but Takedown probably should have beat him. Struggle to suggest up to 1600m especially from the barrier.
8. Bon Aurum: Blinkers first time. Every possible chance up in weights last start but found a few too good over the 1600m. Has won a few times at this track previously but from barrier 16 he doesn’t get into a great spot and will need a very good ride off the strong tempo.
9. Good Project: Good run second up last start at Caulfield when 1.9L 4th behind Voodoo Lad. Big jump in class again.. has won a Group 1 over in WA previously but it’s a big jump here even so on previous runs form.
10. Hopfgarten: Blocked for runs last start but never really going to be going close that day. Well beaten two back at course and distance 4th behind Ulmann. Huge jump in class to Group 1 and while 1600m will suit it’s hard to suggest he will make the grade to win. Place at best.
11. Mackintosh: Top class run last start at Randwick but in a close finish allowed two runners to get past him. Pushing forward again here from a wide barrier and will most likely settle for a sit. Will try and grind it out to the line. Has the ability.
12. Humidor: Blinkers first time. WFA-G1 2nd last start over 2040m in New Zealand and is a Group 3 winner. Best runs have been shown on wetter surfaces an issue and looks better suited over 2000m than 1600m.. but still suited enough here to run well.
13. Great Esteem: Looks the key value of the race. Smashed them over 1600m four back, then backed that up over 1700m three back. Ignore the 6.5L 6th behind Winx when ridden poorly two back and rate on 0.4L 2nd in Group 1 last start. While the barrier isn’t ideal, he will roll along to lead and will be sticking on in the final 200m and may very well look the winner at that stage. Has the ability and finds himself $71 compared to He’s Our Rokkii $8.50 for a 0.4L defeat with a 0.5kg swing and better spot in running.
14. McCreery: Always shown that he is a decent horse but even so that was a big run 1.6L 6th last start behind Hauraki and Mackintosh. Clearly has to find another level here though on form.
15. Tivaci: Good run two back 6th to Bon Aurum and then last start improved over 1600m for 0.9L 3rd behind He’s Our Rokkii. Goes well at this track but will map awkwardly from barrier 13 and need a lot of luck.
16. Seaburge: Down in the weights off a 3Y-GP1 2nd to Divine Prophet in the Guineas. Obviously well suited and will be flying home. Barrier 2 is key.
17. Entirely Platinum: Heading forward today but while the first up run was good, that form hasn’t help up and he has been well beaten the past two starts. Take on.
Comments: There are several quality runners in this race today. This race will come down to tactics and position in running. When betting into a race like this, I want to be on a horse that will get to run the race it wants and is clearly over the odds and Great Esteem ticks all the boxes rated closer to a $14 chance on my numbers.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Great Esteem – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $71/$17
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – TAB.Com.Au Stakes
1. Dibayani: 0.1L 2nd in Group 1 class last start at Randwick where he was ahead with 5 metres to go but got done over on the line. Back to 1200m where he ran quite well first up this prep but seemed fairly beaten on the day. He is down the straight today as he doesn’t handle the Melbourne way.
2. Ball of Muscle: Very disappointing run last start at Moonee Valley when fell out of it fairly quickly in the straight after a nice Group 2 run at Randwick the run before. Only one run at track and goes well here. Clearly on best runs is a chance here. The firmer the better.
3. Dothraki: Very well beaten last start by Star Turn at Caulfield and ran up to form. Was close 4th behind Ball of Muscle the run prior. Goes well down the straight a big positive.
4. Generalife: Another ‘non-winner’ who hasn’t won in 3 preps. Consistently runs well but seems to find a few too good and remains at this distance and class and has to improve again.
5. Keen Array: Good win at Caulfield last start from start to finish in Listed grade and has a 3YO Group 1 2nd on record at this track. Handles the straight but does have to improve onwards from that last run.
6. Counterattack: Hugely disappointing horse to follow. 1600m back to 1200m here after starting favourite or second favourite the past three runs. Handles the straight but has to improve on previous runs.
7. Durendal: Ran horrible last start clearly beaten with no real issues at Caulfield last start. Two back run at course and distance was a nice run 3rd to The Quarterback but that wasn’t a great form race. Goes well down the straight but needs to step up to place here.
8. Ocean Embers: Never suited last start at Caulfield with the tempo on but still ran well enough 4th behind Star Turn. Only one run at this course previously when missed the start and ran home well without even really getting close.
9. We’ve Got This: Slow out last start like the previous start and ran home nicely enough for 2nd. Has to improve onwards again today for a tougher race here but obviously looks a clear top chance.
10. Illustrious Lad: Big win first up beating a nice form horse in Shaf. Clearly should have been going close to winning last start at Caulfield if it wasn’t for the stray riderless horse. Goes well down the straight and has won here previously. Looks well suited at the weights.
11. Southern Legend: 3YO-LR winner last prep. Won well first up beating some decent types in a fast time at Randwick. Two back blocked for runs at critical stages and probably should have won a Group 2 over 1300m. Last start wide the whole race over 1200m in WFA-G2 and still only lost by 1.5L. Down 4kg back to Group 2 class here has him well in.
Comments: This is a wide open affair down the straight to end Derby Day. Counterattack and Dibayani are left out of the numbers as they aren’t the right price, but they are probably the only other horses we consider chances not included in the Quaddie numbers. Keen Array is under the correct odds today in comparison to Illustrious Lad which is very interesting. Ball of Muscle at his best should obviously be going well here also. We’ve Got This is very hard to trust on previous slow to jump runs but has to be considered. Overall, the two standouts on my ratings are Southern Legend and Illustrious Lad.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Back both Southern Legend and Illustrious Lad.
