Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield and Randwick on 19 September 2015. The results keep falling our way which is good to see as the amount of work we are putting in each week remains very high. I’m going to be approaching Caulfield this week with caution with very few good bets standing out… it looks a week to actually go harder up in Sydney than in Melbourne. It was also good to land the Quaddie last week at Flemington for about a 5X return on investment. As i’m trying to do every week in Spring, I walked the Caulfield track during the week – check out all the comments on Twitter. Fingers crossed for another strong performance for our followers and we will continue to work extra hard to find the winners. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Sardaaj to win.
Happy with the price available for Sardaaj today in this class. A better barrier would have seen the horse odds on. Doesn’t look a load of speed in the race apart from the leader from an inside barrier, so should be able to get over without spending too much to hold the field out off out the front in fast time.
Sydney Best Bet
Randwick Race 6 – Two Horse Play – Kermadec or Royal Descent to win
1 unit on Kermadec 0.6 units on Royal Descent (This comes out to $1.97 on current best odds, $1.88-$1.90 on totes for either horse to win).
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Three Horse Play – Charlie Boy, Thermal Current and Galaxy Pegasus to win.
Keen to take on the two favourites today at the prices and all these three at double figure odds appeal. Charlie Boy is the top pick in the race, but value is around for all three runners and I have to take it. We are getting slightly over $4.00 odds for any of these three runners to win today.
Sydney Next Best Bet
Randwick Race 2 – Rudy to win
Two strong return runs and got bigger goals in mind next start. Needs to win today to be a chance next start and looks very well in against this lot. Consider savering Sadler’s Lake in the race, does look a two horse affair on paper.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 8 – Taiyoo E/W
Double figures available again today. Very talented horse off a week backup should be ideal. Pace will be on and brutal so Taiyoo get’s the perfect run from the barrier to sit and roll into it late.
Sydney Best Value
Randwick Race 7 – Gallante Each-Way
Winner over 2400m in Group 1 company as a 3YO in France. Just ignore the runs to date and rate off best runs in past and the horse can measure up. The rain helps A LOT here as well as the distance. Shouldn’t be $100+ as currently available freely. I’ve locked in the $101/$21. Rate around a $24 chance.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 10, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 14, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – National Jockeys Trust Plate
Gear Changes: Stoker – Ear Muffs First Time & Pacifiers First Time, Destiny’s Reward – Blinkers First Time, Dynamic Day – Ear Muffs First Time
Stoker: I think we really have to ignore his first up run and rate on last start at course and distance when he measured up to this class running wide in the race for a 1.3L 5th. Back in class here and a more positive barrier, he looks well in at the weights.
Ability: With a name like that, it appears the owners knew something! 3L win at Sale in a maiden coming into this race but the time run didn’t exactly break any records. Obviously has to measure up to the next stage here.
Bassett: Beat Kinglike in his first prep at course and distance and then ran 2.3L 5th as favourite in the 2YO Group 1 at Doomben. First up today, appeals strongly.
4. Destiny’s Reward: Hard to see him measuring up here today on the three runs in this prep. Yes first up he ran okay behind Demonstrate but still didn’t get close. Take on.
5. Keen Array: Have to respect this horse. 7L winner at Geelong in a maiden and then took another easy kill at Pakenham winnin by 8 lengths. First step up into this grade, certainly no one hit wonder and the firm track looks ideal. Could be the real deal. Good barrier.
6. Mawahibb: Dominated Demonstrate to finish off last prep at Moonee Valley. Demonstrate has come back and proved to be a very good horse so you have to have a bit of confidence in Mawahibb’s ability here today.
8. Well Sighted: Won a 2YO race at Sale at nice odds but failed in harder class the next start. First up won a fairly average 1000m race at the bool… D Oliver takes the ride says something as i’m sure he had the chance to ride Stoker.
9. Dynamic Day: Couldn’t win a maiden but then surprised to win a Flemington 2YO race over 1400m very well… certainly iffy form lines this horse, not sure how to race her, all we know is her best performance was over much further.
10. Sweet Redemption: Maiden only winner to date. Failed to measure up first up in 3F-LR class when on speed, this looks harder.
Comments: Stoker, Ability, Bassett, Keen Array and Mawahibb look to be the five runners here contesting for the win based on raw ability and the market agrees. I have a huge opinion of Stoker and while i think the $4.4 to place is value, i can’t be on him in this level of race. The jury is out for mine on just how good Ability is and we will find out today, so i’m willing to take him on. We know Bassett is a good horse, but how will he have returned today? I think Mawahibb will test them today but the barrier has him a run short for mine. Keen Array is third up with two very impressive wins under his belt and he looks rock hard fit… the times all suggest he is a serious horse and the real deal. Very classy race so can’t be confident on a bet.
Confience: 70%
Strategy: Keen Array to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Fight Cancer Foundation Handicap
Gear Changes: Scream Machine – Cross Over Noseband Again, Crime Fighter – Blinkers Off Again, Schockemohle – Norton Bit Off & Cross Over Noseband on
1. Rugged Cross: Very disappointing run last start at Hawksbury when beaten by The Offer who has failed to win in two runs since. Ruggy doesn’t win out of turn and this is the level he runs in all the time. 3 runs for 3 places at this track. Barrier means probably further back than they would want.
2. Rhythm to Spare: Very disappointing run first up when out the back and didn’t make up much ground even with the hard tempo that should have suited. May have simply resented the soft ground and back to firmer track today is expected to run much better. Only 1 win from 5 starts at track with 0 placing outside that, but a few were good runs in Group 1s. Best recently seen later into preps.
3. Scream Machine: Takes a while to get into his preps having never won first or second up. First up run was fairly average and needs the run again today i’d suggest.
4. Good Value: Nice enough run last start at course over 1800m with top weight finding the line well off a strong tempo, but just not good enough. Back to 1400m a bit of a change up and this type of change up has been working wonders for other trains over the past 3 months. Best run this prep was over this distance. Maps well from barrier.
5. Lord Durante: Short backup last start and very well backed at Moonee Valley and just missed in a close 2nd to Digitalism. Similar weight today but back to 1400m.. just looks a tad too short for me to be confident in backing him.
6. Moonovermanhattan: Seemed to have every possible first up over the 1200m which really isn’t his distance, but the reality of the matter is he does race better from closer to the speed with his last wins being just that. Needs further than this 1400m i’d suggest also to find his best. 3 runs at distance 0 places, 4 runs at track 0 places. Still, can win.
7. Page Rock: No luck last start at Caulfield when blocked for runs and really had no luck or opportunity. previous runs this prep suggest he obviously has the ability to win and step up to 1400m looks positive.
8. Crime Fighter: Last run was over 3200m. Safe to say he just needs further than this. Shock if he won this.
9. Schockemohle: Old mate had a very poor last prep. Previous prep obviously good enough to measure up here, but first run at track first up over a distance short of his best, you have to take him on.
10. Killarney Kid: Talented horse who simply needs 2000m+ to find his absolute best. I’d be surprised to see him fit enough to win this with better runs to come over the Spring prep.
Comments: Certainly an open race, with a horse having to stand up and be seen to win this today. You can discount several runners off the bat due to the distance, which is identified in the betting. With the claim, Pago Rock looks the best weighted here and there is no question about the horse being fit enough to take this out.
Confience: 65%
Strategy: Pago Rock E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – The Golden Fleece 150th Anniversary Plate
Gear Changes: Malaguerra – Cross Over Noseband First Time, Coram – Nasal Strip Off
2. Bradman: Consistent type and has finally drawn a gate so expect him to get slightly further forward today. Step back in class but up in weights, have to believe he is good enough to figure in this race.
3. Belorum: Last prep made his way through the grades to measure up to city level, but found his limit in BM-70 grade. First up showed he needs a few runs this prep i’d suggest… but if money comes… take note.
4. Cross of Gold: Likes to put in good runs on occasion, very hard horse to catch having won just 1 of his last 17 runs and that was at Geelong. Two back run was good enough to win this, but dryer track today compared.
5. Jetello: been going between states to get into the right races, last start every chance against Rocket Commander but couldn’t get the win. Previous run at MV in this grade over 1200m got the win.
6. So Does He: Jumped poorly last start at MV but stormed home when it was all over for 2nd. A good jump today from this barrier should see him settle closer back on a Good track and that’s the key.
7. Grand Slam Eagle: Always showed the ability to be a good horse and finished off last prep in the style required to confirm it. Best seen over further.
8. Collins Street: Consistent type that always seems to be there or there abouts. Back to dryer track today should see him produce his best run. Hasn’t measured up in this class previously the issue.
9. Star Fortune: Fair enough win last start at Geelong but need to find much more here today to measure up in this class. The times suggest he has the ability but i couldn’t take single figures against these.
10. Izenashark: Every chance on speed last start and failed. Previous run was good enough to measure up here to compete. Weight a big factor on the win two back. Wide barrier a lot of work to get over early.
11. Kapset: Will be pushing forward from barrier 9 today. Just missed first up at Bendigo behind Staviva. Have to find lengths on that run to get a win today. 3rd to Stratum Star over 1400m two preps back best run on record.
12. Coram: Looked to be well in first up at Cranbourne when just beaten by Armada by 0.1L who then went to the next level winning in BM-84 grade mid-week over a decently talented field.
Comments: The start to the day hasn’t got any easier with this race. So Does He appeals as the top chance here but not a lot of confident in the pick.
Confience: 65%
Strategy: So Does He E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Bendigo Bank East Malvern Handicap
Gear Changes: Vibrant Rouge Blinkers Off, Alleyoop Nadal Strip On & Lugging Bit On & Race Plates On & Bandages On, Petite Diablesse Race Plates On, Kayjay’s Joy – Blinkers Off Side On Again & Bubble Cheeker Off Side On & Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On, Mossbeat – Winkers Off & Blinkers On
1. Lucky Lago: Strong win over the 1200m last start at Sandown coming back from 1900m… expect the 1400m to suit as well. 60kg certainly an issue but is certainly going well enough on the past four runs to measure up.
2. Scratchy Bottom: Continues to be aimed at 2000m+ for her best runs in prep. Goes okay at this distance but trained for further.
3. Vibrant Rouge: Has the ability but hasn’t shown it for a long while. Goes well first up and the key is that she is back to a dryer surface today. Discount her at your own cost back to this grade today with the speed on.
4. Alleyoop: NZ runner first run in AUS, rule here is to always take them on. Last three runs have only been fair compared to two previous to that which would measure up here. Best seen on softer tracks also.
5. Sardaaj: Certainly unlucky first in AUS blocked for runs and hit the line well for 2nd even though well beaten. Lesser class race here in reality if you consider Churchill Dancer’s progression, up to 1400m, looks well in. Barrier the only issue.
6. Ungrateful Ellen: Has won at this distance in the past and ran well the last time at distance for a 3rd. Best runs seen last prep over 2000m+ the obvious concern in this grade.
7. Danestroem: Keeps running consistently but not winning. Was weighted to win but fell out of it to run 1.5L 5th which wasn’t terrible but it really wasn’t the best Mares grade race you will ever see. Back to lowest grade race she has seen since her last win at course over 1200m. Have to respect at weight.
8. Petite Diablesse: First up run was a great one at big odds. Out the back and stormed home for 1.3L 6th. Poor barrier today doesn’t help matters but expect them to be having no issues going wide into the straight from this race onwards today. Good ride would find her midfield.
9. Secret Toy Bizness: Doesn’t win out of turn. First up run was very average. Never placed at track. Take her on here.
10. Sure You Can: A bit of a frustrating horse to back but clearly best runs come at Flemington. Never won at distance, first up or at track.
11. Soosa Rama: Very hard horse to catch. Best would see her running well here, but feel we are still a few runs off seeing that.
12. Ring da Belle: New stable – been working well at home. Never won at distance needs further but could run well enough at weights.
13. Kayjay’s Joy: Did a lot wrong last start at course over 1200m. Up to 1400m certainly suits and gear changes and good track seem to have her in well enough here, just not sure the 1.5kg down up to this grade will have her winning.
14. Mossbeat: Never runs a poor race, but seems to always find a few too good. More gear changes again today and Good track.
Comments: The speed will be on with Danestroem in this race today which should suit a few runners. Sardaaj is the favourite and deserves to be on form and would be the most confident bet of the day if drawn barriers 1-7, but 14 means extra work required to cross which is why the horse is $2.80 not $2.00. petite Diablesse looks the main threat to the favourite while Vibrant Rouge has the previous form to blow this one out.
Confience: 80%
Strategy: Sardaaj to win. Speculation bet on Vibrant Rouge – we will get $100+ so don’t need much on to find out.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – MRC Foundation Plate
Gear Changes: Catch a Fire – Winkers First Time
1. Pearl Star: Looked a decent type as a 2YO but failed to deliver on either run this prep. Has ability but couldn’t back on what i’ve seen so far.
2. Giulietta: Found a bit of form last start when finally ridden to lead and pushed Alaskan Rose to 1.3L. Soft track may have done the trick with previous best run on soft also. Don’t count her out in any way… one of two leaders.
3. Don’t Doubt Mamma: Huge run home last start at Moonee Valley. Better barrier today so should be closer to speed. Have to reproduce a similar run today, but has the ability.
4. Lazumba: Showed nothing first up. Last prep ran Jameka to 1L at Flemington. Have to improve. May need the run still.
5. Parallel Lines: 2YO winner at Cranbourne to finish last prep. Failed to measure up in city is the issue.
6. Born Magic: Finally got her win last start at Bendigo but didn’t have to beat too much.
8. Hela Flyer: Strong first up win on softer ground in a maiden but then last start found nothing. Could run much better than last start you would expect.
9. Thames Court: Very talented win first up at Pakenham not ridden out. Did control the speed but did have alot in the tank. Step up to 1400m looks ideal and from barrier 2 will have the rail and every chance to prove her class.
10. Catch a Fire: Racing well with a nice 4th to Strykum 2 back but then well beaten by a handy horse in maiden last start. Has to improve even from the barrier.
11. Sacred Eye: Yard believe she has alot of talent. Time didn’t exactly blow away any records and sectionals were fair… obviously has ability but need to see the run against this lot!
13. Rosamond: Failed in a maiden.
14. Dash for Georgia: Beware the unraced horse! Trial was average but always be careful of these types!
Comments: This could be one of the races of the day where the front runners have all the favours. I’m willing to take on Don’t Doubt Mamma today, need to see the horse produce that type of quality from a midfield/onpace position. Sacred Eye also has to be taken on for mine in this grade. Thames Court at double figures and Giulietta at single figures both appeal.
Confience: 70%
Strategy: Giulietta to win. Smaller bet Thames Court.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Testa Rossa Stakes
Gear Changes: Royal Rapture – Blinkers Off & Tongue Tie Off & Noseroll On
1. Charlie Boy: Ran Boban to 0.2L last prep over the 1350m in WFA-G1 after winning a Group 3 race. Very talented horse who loves a good surface. Top weight today and will be getting back, but from barrier 3 expect him to be just off midfield and could find a 1 out spot. Key chance.
2. It Is Written: Consistent type, but his first up run was poor, blocked for runs. Goes well at track but 1 win from 13 is an issue. Back in class and 1200m helps chances.
3. The Bowler: Super runs last prep but first up run at Caulfield unwanted in the market and ran horrible! Think he needs another run or two before considering backing over further.
4. We’re Gonna Rock: Obviously had a lot of problems after being off since 2012, returned and showed nothing all three runs since. Take on.
5. Fell Swoop: Three runs for three wins in a row including a handy win last start at Moonee Valley when had the absolute perfect run of the race. Horse that ran 2nd was 100-1 if that gives you a clue of exactly how strong the field was. Maps very well to be on speed or just off it again.
6. Mecir: Won 3 from 5 first up but clearly not last prep wen found nothing in all three runs. Never won at track from 2 attempts and just 1 from 8 at this class. Struggle to suggest even though his best is good enough as he will be out the back.
7. Thermal Current: Vetted at barrier and ran like a horse that shouldn’t have gone around. Ignore that run and rate on strong 2nd up record and the fact the horse won a Group 3 last prep and 5th in Group 1 company. Will sit just off the speed and have every possible chance.
8. Exodus: Adelaide runner first up in VIC… just 1 win from 5 first up in the past… has won in Open class over in Adelaide but over further. Have to take on.
9. Java: Last prep showed he had a lot of ability including a 3L 4th to Dissident in WFA-G1 class. 54kg today looks well in all things considered and while 1200m is just short of his perfect distance, get the feeling it will be ideal first up. Barrier the issue but will be pushing forward.
11. Royal Rapture: Tassy star moved to the Moody stable. Goes well enough first up and this is his bet distance. Best runs last prep were over the 1200-1400m range but certainly in smaller fields. Good barrier today.
12. Galaxy Pegasus: Missed the start at MV last start and ran home well all things considered. Has to jump with them and can be considered if that occurs. Obviously has a lot of ability.
13. Ulmann: Finished off last prep with a close 3nd to Smokin’ Joey in QLD. Has ability and ran nicely in group class in 3YO range last prep including 2nd to Winx also.
Comments: Talented group of horses in this race today and get the feeling Fell Swoop is under the odds. I’d need closer to the opening quote of $3.30 to back the horse here. Java also looks a little lower for mine at $5.50. I think the way to approach this race is a three horse play of those at value in Charlie Boy, Thermal Current and Galaxy Pegaus who are all double figure odds and rate in the single figure range.
Confience: 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Back Charlie Boy, Thermal Current and Galaxy Pegaus all to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – William Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 Stakes
Gear Changes: Wawail – Winkers Again & Blinkers Off First Time
1. Hazard: Painfully close first up when further back than expected at Caulfield last start and just beaten by a really good type in madam Gangster. Poor barrier today a huge issue and will slot in midfield at best, if not go back a long way. At this stage in the day a 3-wide run isn’t a negative for mine the way the inside will have chopped up.
2. Wawail: Excellent first up record with 3/3. 1 run 1 win at track and this distance obviously suits. Last run of last prep pulled up lame worth remembering. Maps well obviously from barrier 4 today.
3. Atlantis Dream: Very solid and consistent all of last prep in similar or harder grades. First up record is solid but best runs over more than 1200m in recent preps.
4. Griante: Sat close enough to the speed but just lacked the ability to win last start. Run rated similar to two previous runs… needs a few more runs I think.
5. Politeness: She’s hard to catch but when she wins, she wins well. Not just a wet tracker anymore either with last prep first up win at course over 1100m in harder company on a good surface. Expect a strong run.
6. Girl Guide: Strip fitter for the run first up. Thought she had her chances and will need to have improved at least a length to measure up to this based on that run. Obviously has ability but is 1400m her distance not 1200m?
7. Tycoon Tara: A fair few people jumping onboard after her first up run behind Chautauqua. yeah, it was a decent run, but it wasn’t super. I think what most are thinking is the step up to 1200m will be perfect today. Barrier 12 makes it very hard to get a good spot and i think this is a very strong field and i’m happy to take her on.
9. Written Dash: Not winning.
10. Jessy Belle: Never given a chance last start at Caulfield from barrier 5 when ridden much further back than previous start. Tricky gate today but should be midfield here. Obviously has the ability to win.
11. Lesley’s Choice: Gone through the grades up north with some fairly good wins. Did record a 6L victory over 1100m in fast time also out the front at Ipswich also. Has ability… one to watch i’m telling you!
12. Scarlet Billows: Have to take a few on in this race and she is clearly one. Will be a long way back in running.
13. Forgeress: Certainly has ability and won a F&M two back at course and distance. Last start did alot wrong for a disappointing 5th. Back to best would go close.
14. Vezalay: Continues to run well but not get there with a 6th last start at Flemington. Back to 1200m today ideal and back to Good track. Barrier an issue to get an easy front spot though.
15. Satya: Bm-64 straight up to this. Doubt it.
Comments: Wide Quaddie leg again and i could have included 2-3 more in this race. Seriously open race with so many chances. Hazard from a better barrier would be top pick, but you just can’t have the horse from there. Wawail also doesn’t appeal greatly to me at the price but can’t leave out of the quaddie legs. The standout for mine is first run in Victoria is the handy Lesley’s Choice on the E/W.
Confience: 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 10, 11, 14
Strategy: Lesley’s Choice E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 2000m – Naturalism Stakes
Gear Changes: Almoonqith – Blinkers First Time & Noseroll Off First Time, Prince Cheri – Blinkers First Time
1. Our Ivanhowe: Top weight which certainly makes things hard. Group 1 winner over in Germany over the 2400m. Ran a respectable 6th in Japan as well in a Group 1 over 2400m. 2 runs for 2 wins at this distance in the past.. i think you really just ignore that one run in Adelaide 4 months ago, the drift said it all. Have to consider but will be out the back from that barrier.
3. Taiyoo: Got caught wide with 61kg last start at Flemington and pushed on to set a stupid tempo…. only 4.8L off them will certainly have put the run into his legs for today… it’s go time, he has to win this to be considered a legit Caulfield Cup chance for later in the campaign or you will see him pushed back to Listed/Open grade races only for the rest of the campaign. Race pace from the barrier will give him no excuses.
4. Hawkspur: Old mate hasn’t won in a very long time and two runs this prep shown very little to be excited about. Never placed from 3 tries on course.
5. Almoonqith: I thought his last start run was very disappointing. He has a nice run, the speed was good and he just didn’t finish off well enough. Barrier 18 is horrible and they either fight for a lead or sit out last. Very happy to take the horse on even though we know its a Group 3 winner over 2800… has to prove stuff to me at this distance.
7. Prince Cheri: Lame first up when well respected in the market and being ridden back from a positive barrier. Positive barrier again today but much harder race. Will get a nice run but can you back the horse off a lameness run? Need to see it produce.
8. Sonntag: Just here for the run you would think. Needs further to find best this prep aimed at a Cup run.
9. La Amistad: Best seen over much further. Take on.
10. Cafe Society: Set up the pace something fierce last start. Barrier 15, blinkers remain on, i can’t see how this horse will settle.. expect a fast tempo to be set out front and he can’t win.
11. Let’s Make Adeal: Found nothing first up. Goes okay 2nd up but can you trust on first up run in this grade? I want to see the run.
12. Like a Carousel: Best seen over further than this in the past. Obviously can run well.
13. Bold Sniper: Queen’s horse. Needs the run today.
14. Kapour: Not exactly a top rater but running consistently well. Best run this prep on Heavy track, not near that today.. next start ran close 2nd on Firm.. so can run well on all surfaces… barrier 20 makes things very hard.
15. Magnapal: Very very good win first up. Best runs in past over this distance but better on wet for mine.
16. Genuine Lad: Not very genuine first up over the 1400m. Up to 2000m today obviously helps chances. Consistent type who should run well but barrier 19 certainly doesn’t help.
17. The United States (EM1): Can’t say anything wrong about this horse. Ran very well last start for 2nd when wide from too far out. Should get a midfield position from barrier today and have every chance.
18. Ethiopia (EM2): Best is behind him.
Comments: Banca Mo was scratched from this race after having a heart attack mid-week and dying. Rest in Peace you good thing. Make no mistake, the pace in this race today will be brutal. Not often i want to be on horses not ridden for a top 4 spot, but that is the race for it. True staying test. I think Taiyoo will do no work to get a nice rails position about 3-4 slots back and with a bit of luck have every chance to steal this race.
Confience: 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17
Strategy: Taiyoo E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – The Cove Hotel Handicap
Gear Changes: More Than Perfect – Winkers First Time, Zacada – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On, Polish Tiger – Winkers Off & Blinkers On
1. Kentucky Flyer: Did a lot wrong overracing at Moonee Valley to record a very nice win all things considered. Top weight is the issue.
2. Multifacets: Certainly a good type on the win two back. Last start ran okay when missed the start. Has ability to measure up.
4. Del Piero: Poro run two back but returned to form last start with an okay run at MV but still just not good enough that day.
5. Etymology: Wide margin maiden win at Pakenham last start. Wide barrier an issue but has ability.
6. Invincible Knight: Has runs on the board. Did alot wrong first up and blocked for runs. Have to take on face value. Poor barrier.
7. More Than Perfect: Solid enough maiden win third up, but this is the next step and i can’t see it occurring on the current form.
8. Tarzino: Good maiden win last start beating a talented type in Red Alto – that was on heavy, wide barrier today back to good track.
9. Zacada: Maiden winner over in NZ but first up had every chance and failed to place.
10. Del Grippa: Good enough run last start at Sandown. Have to believe he goes well again today.
11. Koolama Bay: R-58 winner last start… this is much much harder. Pass.
12. Pay Up Bro: Maiden winner.. didn’t beat much in that but had okay runs the last two. Has some ability.
14. Sailing By: Good maiden win and then a very strong 3rd to Alaskan Rose last start from on speed. Barrier 4 again today means she will have every chance.
15. Salamaat: Failed in 2YO as favourite in first prep. Got his maiden in a fairly easy class.
16. Zapurbly: Average but fair enough win first. Obviously needs to find lengths on that though.
17. Assertive Star (EM1): Decent run first up for 3.8L off in 3Y-GP3. Last start ran well also.
18. Four By Four (EM2): Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Yikes. Tough way to end the day. So many form lines that you just can’t measure up here, all you can do is back the horse with the best form line which is the favourite.
Confience: 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 14, 17
Strategy: Sailing By to win. Smaller bet Multifacets.
Randwick Race 2 – 1400m – Bill Ritchie Handicap
1. Messene: Sat on pace last start at Rosehill and seemed to have every chance when weakened out of it from a good spot in the run. Goes forward to lead probably from the wide barrier.
2. Index Linked: God horse but clearly his best runs in the past few preps have been over further and happy to take him on here.
3. Rudy: Looks to be in for a very big prep. Doesn’t win out of turn this horse but looks very well off today and the wetter the better for this horse! Gun run from barrier 3.
4. Heart Testa: Hard horse to catch, but when he runs well, he generally wins. Back in class here after a tough run and 1 week backup… not for mine.
5. Destiny’s Kiss: Never won first up and clearly wants further, last win over 3200m!
6. Sadler’s Lake: Very good win last start at Randwick over Forget who has come out and won yesterday at Newcastle as well. Will be on speed from positive barrier also. Key chance.
8. Dragon Flyer: 2nd to The Offer two back but that form hasn’t been franked since. Didn’t run well last start a concern here also. Has ability.
9. Rekindled Power: Never won first up. 3rd to Delecatation in 3Y-GP2 at Randwick last prep… has run some very good races in 3YO grade. Big step up here.
10. Puzzling Wonder: CL-2 winner… previous win that was a maiden. No thanks.
11. Never Back Down: 3rd to Dupe Em last start… average type.
Comments: Two clear standouts and no surprise they are at the top of betting in Rudy and Sadler’s Lake. I think Rudy has the most upside even at the weights and i’m happy to be on today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Rudy to win. Saver bet Sadler’s Lake.
Randwick Race 4 – 1100m – The Bowermans Office Furniture Shorts
2. Hot Snitzel: Surprised freshened up long into last prep with a win at Doomben on a Good track. Ran well enough in the main race on speed the next start as well. Goes well on wet tracks on precious runs and have to respect on previous prep.
3. Rebel Dane: Hard one to judge. At his best he is a top class sprinter but we haven’t seen that horse the past two preps managing 3rd at best. Decent enough trial and stable believe he is back to his best. Clearly worth considering him knowing he goes super well on the wet and the wetter the better.
4. Ball of Muscle: Best runs in the past were seen over this distance or slightly further in the past and on wetter tracks. No disgrace on wetter, but as proven by first up run, he clearly has more fitness to come than what was shown in that race.
5. Delectation: Made his way through the classes last prep and while he didn’t measure up with a very low weight in the Newmarket compared to Terravista, he won on a Heavy 8 the next start in the Arrowfield for a big score. Runs after that suggested he clearly finds his best on a Heavy track and in lesser company. Trials have been okay.
6. Rock Sturdy: A while between wins and the last win was a very nice win but over 1500m not 1100m. Last run over 1200m was first up last prep and a big fail… wanting further.
7. Shiraz: I couldn’t be more impressed if i tried at the last start run at course over 1000m. Did all the work with no cover and found the line strongly. Harder class today but the step up in distance and rain will suit. Can win.
8. That’s A Good Idea: Take him on at your own risk. He’s a good horse! Ran well first up last prep for a strong win at nice odds before a close 2nd to Ball of Muscle. Has the ability and trials sound.
9. Atmospherical: Running on late first up but never looked in the race. Hard horse to catch and best runs on dryer surfaces. Need to improve even at weights.
Comments: Terravista is the class runner in the race and Hot Snitzel has to be respected on the last prep runs, but the two that stand out for me today are Rebel Dane and Shiraz with the rain around. Shiraz looks to have gone to the next level and from a very handy barrier, i can see him getting the perfect run. The pace will be on and Rebel Dane will certainly have the last word if good enough.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Shiraz to win. Smaller bet Rebel Dane.
Randwick Race 6 – 1600m – George Main
1. Protectionist: Don’t expect much today, but keep it on notice that he won his maiden over 1600m as a 2Yo so he can win at this distance… but he is clearly being trained on for one target, the Melbourne Cup distance and this is too short.
2. Pornichet: Certainly a tough run first up and not exactly in the best ground, but he fell out of the race disappointingly from a spot that suggested he should have had every chance. I have massive questions over his quality as a horse based on the first two runs where if he was a top class horse, he should have found a way or gone closer.
3. Hooked: Expected leader today. Continued to kick on and kick on first up in the Tramway for a big win! Goes well on wet tracks and step up in distance helps. Questions over if he has the ability to win a race like this.
5. Kermadec: Obviously a very very good horse as proven by the strong Doncaster win last year with no weight. Train certainly helps his chances today and he seems to fly through it. Good horse and should be peaking today on a track that should give him every chance with so few runners.
6. Sweynesse: Had to do a lot of work first up in the Tramway and ran okay but this is the extra step up and off that run i’m more than happy to take him on.
7. Hauraki: Ran well last year in the Derby 2nd to Mongolian Khan. Over a similar distance in the Phar Lap lost 2L to Winx. Certainly was a soft run first up but not convinced he is this level and best on dryer.
8. Royal Descent: Flat run last start after a strong win first up. The wetter the better for RD and will certainly be running on well from an on-speed position. Never won at this distance in the past is a bad stat but obviously goes well at track and in conditions.
9. Lucia Valentina: Oh my girl! She ran a stunner first up from out the back! She hit the line solidly and any extra distance increase suits her. Looks well on track to go one better in the Caulfield Cup. Can win!
10. Kirramosa: Hit the line solidly first up with Lucia Valentina. Think her best is clearly over further than this and will find her best as she goes on, just not sure she has the class to beat them all in this grade at this distance.
Comments: I’ve keen to take on Pornichet today in this race – jury is still out for mine on the horse being top class. The two standouts for me are Royal Descent and Kermadec. Royal Descent gets a lovely run on speed while Kermadec will be storming home from the back – both love it wet also. Backing both horses here at time of writing we can get $1.97 for either horse to win, and that is value all the way down to $1.70.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 1 unit on Kermadec 0.6 units on Royal Descent. This gives us roughly $1.97 odds on best prices around at time of writing for either horse to win.
Randwick Race 7 – 2000m – Ascend Sales Trophies Hill Stakes
1. Complacent: HUGE first up win. Looked to be no fluke either considering the horse in a Group 1 winner as a 3YO over Criterion. Up to 2000m today also looks to even suit better and he looks to get a sit just off the speed or outside the leader today. Horse to beat.
2. Who Shot The Barman: Not the worst return first up behind Complacent. Never got close but was a good run heading towards a Melbourne Cup. Pass again today.
3. Beaten Up: Continues to run well without winning. Last start was poor due to wet surface it seems. Take on today.
5. Gallante: Disappointing run first up when didn’t show alot. 3YO Group1 winner over in France on wet tracks which he will get today and the 2000m should be sufficient. Expect sharp improvement IMO.
6. Grand Marshal: Stable believes he needs further. Here for the run heading onto a Melbourne Cup.
7. Junoob: Ran home nicely enough last start and 2000m is his deal today. Can run well. Barrier the issue.
8. Opinion: Probably like a few others looking for further, but he does have good results over these distances including Group 1 win over 2400m on record. A while between wins.
9. Bonfire: Too good in the Grafton Cup last start on firmer tracks. Has ability and goes well first up. Obviously be on speed.
11. Precedence: Old mate didn’t find a lot first up. Up to 2000m obviously helps but better as he goes over further.
13. Chance to Dance: Very good strong win first up beating The United States. Ashe gets up over further he will improve, 2000m probably his go at best as well. Better form on firmer tracks but handles wet.
14. Tremec: Dead last first up. Better seen over further than this in last few preps.
16. Preferment: Won’t be winning this heading towards a Melbourne Cup.
17. Magic Hurricane: Strong win last start at Rosehill and Silverball won since to frank the form. Should be suited by distance and looks a nice type here.
18. Bohemian Lily: Well beaten first up. Big jump in distance to her best distance.. big class jump this but has shown ability.
Comments: About 5-6 runners with 0 chance in this, but a few clear chances for mine to win it as well. Complacent has to be backed today based on that first up run, it’s hard to suggest he isn’t going super. Gallante is a massive price with $101+ being bet here.. expect sharp improvement.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Complacent to win. Smaller bet on Gallante to win.
