Welcome to The Profits form guide for 1 October 2016 for Grand Final Day with Caulfield and Randwick. We look up north today at the main event of the day where we are confident to have a bet, while also keeping our eyes fixed on an average card at Caulfield where there could be a few good winners at big odds. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Freshwater Storm – 2 units @ $13.77/$4.05 Each-Way
Next Best Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Palentino 1 unit to win @ $7.00. Hauraki 1 unit to win @ $7.50. Dibayani 0.25 units to win @ $41.
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 3 – Black Vanquish – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.45
Caulfield Race 8 – Shillelagh – 2 units @ $4.40
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 2 – Squeaky Squirrel – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$8.50 E/W
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 15
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 12, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 7 – 1600m – TAB Epsom Handicap
1. Palentino: Blinkers first time. Ran a career peak last start over this distance in the G1 Makybe Diva beating Black Heart Bart who has since come out and won another G1. Only this price today due to an ordinary heavy track trial. Zahra comes up for the ride and his form is clearly being under rated.
2. Hauraki: G2 Tramway winner first up before running nicely enough 1.3L 2nd to Winx last start from just off the pace. Looks one of the main dangers to Palentino today on form and should be hitting the line very well.
3. Le Romain: Beaten last start at Newcastle after a 2nd to Hauraki the previous start. Struggle to see the form turn around even from such a positive barrier.
4. Happy Clapper: Two runs this prep and fairly beaten in both races. Will need a very good ride from Barrier 1 to get off in the right amount of time and to finish off stronger than some very good types in this race. Not top pick for mine.
5. Mighty Lucky: Ran nicely enough firs tup over the 1400m when 1.2L off the winner. Should improve today and is a G3 winner last prep. Does have to find an extra length or two to beat off all these today.
6. Dibayani: Going through the distances very well this prep with two solid lead in runs. A few weeks between runs, he looks a massive price back at Randwick today on a suitable track over a distance that suits. Hasn’t been sent up just for a run.
7. Sons of John: Good run first up after some nice trials and then last start was well backed on speed and got the win over some ‘nice’ types. This is the testing material today.
8. Mackintosh: This bloke for mine is a dead set superstar of a horse. He not only has Group wins over the 2000m+ range but first up he came in and defeated Counterattack and Southern Legend over the 1300m distance. 52kg again today.. he just keeps doing what is needed of him and he will have a massive chance here.
9. McCreery: Won his last two starts in Listed and Group 3 grade. Was suited by the way last start was run but it was certainly a strong win regardless. Big issues stepping back in class today in my eyes.
10. Heavens Above: Good win two back but didn’t win by a lot. Last start ran well without getting closer in harder company. Has to step it up again here.
11. Vanbrugh: G1 4th last start well beaten by Hauraki. Has to improve onwards and upwards again to be placing here.
12. Torersen: Bottom weight today has him well in at the weights. Hasn’t won in 3 runs this prep making it very hard to suggest a G1 win here… but was wide with cover last start and hit the line well. Should be well suited up to 1600m today.
13. Fabrizio: Expected to be on speed today after a Bm-85 win by 4 lengths last start at course and distance with 57.5kg… down to 50kg today but much harder race and won’t get an easy lead at all today.
Comments: Palentino, Hauraki, Dibayani and Mackintosh are the fourstandouts in the race for me today. I just have to play around the first three in the markets here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Palentino 1 unit to win @ $7.00. Hauraki 1 unit to win @ $7.50. Dibayani 0.25 units to win @ $41.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – Ridgeview Park Thoroughbred Stud Handicap
1. Lilly Dazzler: Her last two runs have both had merit when fairly beaten on both occasions. Will be going back again from the barrier today. Will run well but not sure she is winning.
2. Cinnamon Carter: Well beaten first up at Sale. Up in distance helps but never won at distance or track. Best will be found over further. If money comes for her, have something on to place.
3. Miles of Krishan: Lightly raced 4YO. Never been far off the win ever and has run well at course over 1400m previously. Good win last start at Sale. Needs to go on with it here but has the ability.
4. Bonnie Belle: 2000m back to 1600m today after two poor runs in a row. Was a very good win three back at Sandown… think she is crying out for wet tracks only now and it won’t be that here.
5. Ginali: Hard horse to catch this one. Good win first up at Sandown but foudn nothing 2nd up. Ran nicely enough last start at Mornington but was never a chance. Not sure this is her track.
6. Hell or Highwater: Big win last start at Pakenham but this horse does have his issues. Step up in grade again here. Can win this but needs to run to another peak.
7. Denpasar: First up run wasn’t fancied in the market but ran well for 4th over 1200m. Up to the ideal 1600m distance toady where she last won and can go well from the barrier.
8. Artesian: Godolphin runner that was 1L off Cool Chap last prep over 2000m. Has always run well over this distance in the past and looks very well in as long as you just wipe the first up run from record.
9. Champagne Ready: Maiden winner and then ran well 2nd to Lake Combo over the 1200m at Moonee Valley. Big step back up to 1600m suggests they got it wrong last start? Not 100% sure on that though. One to watch here.
10. Samertha Heights: Fairly beaten the past two starts by better horses. Will run well and can place but others preferred.
11. Single Note: Well beaten behind Miles of Krishan last start. Previous runs were okay enough in similar grade to suggest a place today… but will need a great ride to win.
12. Catechesis: BM-58 grade runner.. well out of class here one would suggest… but did run 3rd in BM-70 three back. Think she needs it wetter.
13. Stellar Princess: Never won on a good track and been running on heavy only recently. Take on.
Comments: Tough race to start the day. Champagne Ready is massive unders on my ratings. Just forgive the Godolphin runners first run and back it here E/W from a good barrier.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Artesian E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – Dream Thoroughbreds Handicap
1. Lucky Liberty: Won very well over 1200m last prep in easier grade. Went up to Group level and was well backed but had a few things go wrong. First up didn’t show a lot behind Hellbent but that was a much harder race. Well weighted and gets in well here. Barrier the big issue.
2. Rocket Tommy: BM-64 grade winner first up then well beaten last start at MV when did a bit wrong at the start and couldn’t get on speed. Up to 1200m today.. hard to see a win in this class.
3. Super Flyer: Very good 4L win last prep over 1200m in BM-64 and then won in this grade straight after. Both best were seen on soft though. Can run well first up.
4. Un de Sceaux: Disappointing run first up at Sale when failed to fire over this distance. Sticks to same distance and I can’t have him here. Wants further.
5. Squeaky Squirrel: 2.5L off Hellbent first up at Sandown. Failed on the heavy tracks the past two runs and gets in well over the correct odds here. Big chance at massive odds with the claim. Needs a good ride.
6. Stringer Bell: BM-70 winner first up at Geelong in a field of 8. Have to consider a top chance returning here in similar grade only up 1.5kg.
7. Valderrama: Missed the start at Geelong and that could have cost him the win beaten 0.1L by Stringer Bell. Couldn’t win a CL1 the previous start a bit of a concern.. but did run 2nd to French Emotion the previous start.
8. Buckler: Ran home very well last start for 2.7L 7th behind Chase the Horizon. Going well currently and can run a nice race from a better barrier today.
9. Our Boy Charlie: First up today after 3 months off. Only 1 win on good tracks in the past and this is his first time in this class. Tough from barrier.
10. Dane Thunder: Beaten favourite behind Stringer Bell last start with no excuses. Hard to see the form turn around staying on good tracks and over this distance. Needs further.
11. Aurelius Hero: Failed to win the past 7 outings but has been running well enough. Similar grade to this the past few starts hasn’t exactly got close. Hard to see from 15.
12. El Sicario: Stable is flying but ran into a very good one last start at Pakenham in similar grade. Group 2 placed over 1400m back home on a heavy track. Have to considerbut i’m not sure about the drop back to 1200m.
13. Apiata: Nice enough win first up in maiden grade. Good barrier and should get a nice run throughout with the right jockey onboard.
16. Our Project: Been running only average in easier grades of races. Take on.
Comments: I think they have the markets wrong on Squeaky Squirrel today and I just have to take the value. El Sicario, Lucky Liberty are the two clearly to beat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Squeaky Squirrel – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$8.50 E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Kurts and Barn 40th Birthday Plate
1. Pravro: Won two in a row heading into this but both were on heavy tracks. Has won in past on good tracks but in easier class of races. I have to take on here.
2. Ballinaclash: Very strong win on speed last start at Moonee Valley when beat a fairly large field. Previous runs this prep are alarming though wit the step back up to those grades.
3. Black Vanquish: Ran very well last start at Caulfield when well backed on the day. Will take large improvement for the run and Sweeney looks the ideal jockey to take ahold of this beast.
5. Canelo: Continues to run well at Geelong this prep with top 3 finishes. First time city grade really and is certainly needing improvement again from on speed.
6. But It’s True: Bm-64 grade winner as a $1.40 favourite to end last prep after a strong 2.4L 7th behind Tarquin in 3Y-SWP grade when everything went wrong. 6L winner over 1300m on soft in maiden grade. Hard to place.
7. Grand Emperor: Four runs this prep. Last start saw huge improvement back to a dryer track at Pakenham. Will appreciate the ground here again today and would be a top chance if from a better barrier.
8. I Am the General: Running well this prep in easier grades but just keeps missing a win. Up in grade and not that well in at weights. Good barrier today though.
9. Castelo: CL1 winner last prep as only run. BM-64 grade runner previous to that. Hard horse to place but is wanting further on form.
10. Just Got Lucky: 1200m winner in the past and has measured up to city grade as a 3YO. If comes back well today can contest here.
11. Quantrill: Down from Sydney today. Been running well in similar grade at Canterbury and Warwick Farm. I still have a query over the horse who has won just 1 race ever and has had chances in CL1’s.
13. Tuscany Hero: Backed first up on the Synthetic at Geelong and proved the punters to be correct. Up in class and similar weight here. D Oliver jumps on which is handy. Needs to go to the next level.
14. Tigidig Tigidig: Old mate! 8L 2nd two back and then beaten 2.7L last start when led. Well in at the weights but would need to show significant improvement today.
15. Esprit Warrior: Bm-64 winner at odds first up 0.1L. Huge step up here again from a terrible barrier. 50th run of career and never won in this class.
16. Mantener La Fe: 1 win ever. Couldn’t place in BM-58 last start and couldn’t win CL1 the two previous starts. Never won on Good track and only placed once. No.
17. Tricky Glen: Been struggling in BM-58 grade.
Comments: A bunch of absolute rubbish runners in this one today. It’s hard to look past Black Vanquish with Sweeney getting the ride today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Black Vanquish – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.45
Caulfield Race 4 – 1000m – Monty Samuel Plate
1. Good Offa: Has city class ability in this grade of race. Last start just snuck home for the win at Pakenham in similar class. Loves it dry and won’t get the ideal surface for mine for him to find his best.
2. Truculent: Didn’t beat much first up when winning in this grade at Pakenham. Three runs since have been painfully bad. Needs to improve.
3. Miss Vista: Dominant maiden winner over 1000m from start to finish in a very good time. Fell in the next start down the Flemington straight in a very good race time for that grade of race. Looks a 1000m specalist and looks well in at weights today. First time battling the open grade races.
4. Atunnah Courage: Never won on Good track in 17 runs. Well out of class here.
5. Captain Crackerjak: BM-58 winner two back on soft. Last start ran fairly well beaten 2nd at Pakenham.
6. Cheeky Babe: Moved to Weir stable from up in Sydney. Very good fast run win on record over 1000m in Bm-64 grade from two preps back. Last prep ran well enough on softer tracks to suggest every chance to improve and win here.
7. Run Charlie Run: Bm-58 winner last start at Moe and didn’t beat alot. F&M third on the record from last prep. Should be able to run well here.
8. What a Hoot: Beaten every run last prep under $5 odds. Never won first up. First run at Caulfield and in city. Always seems to run well but finds a few too good normally. Hard to trust.
9. Rain Fast: Been running very well on wet tracks recently. Goes well on good tracks also but is 80 races deep and never won at this level.
10. Ameristralia: Smashed them last start at Bendigo in BM-64 grade over 1100m on a soft track. Never won on a Good track a big concern but clearly has ability. Did take a while to break through though.
11. Billabong Babe: Recorded some good wins in the past. Runs best when the speed isn’t overly fast and I can’t see that happening today.
12. Orvassa: Very good win first up when blocked for runs and even over raced throughout. Should run well but barrier hurts significantly.
13. Moqla: Hayes stable runner. Recorded a very good win two and four back at Morphetville over similar distances. First up pulled up lame which is a massive issue. Hard to be confident.
14. Grey Strike: CL1 winner two back, couldn’t place in CL3 last start. Country grade at best.
15. Sasayuri: 4L maiden winner from start to finish last start controlling the tempo. Does look to have some ability but struggle to suggest this leap up in quality.
Comments: When all is said and done, I really feel the $2.80 for Miss Vista is a bit of value overall based on the first two runs we have seen of her. Will push the speed on and make it an endurance battle. Whoever can get past her will be a very good type.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Miss Vista to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – dreamthoroughbreds.com.au Handicap
1. Foreign Affair: The form horse of the race. Three very strong runs in a row heading into this and finally hits a dry track. Form around Catch A Fire is hard to ignore and gets in well at weights. Barrier only concern obviously.
3. All About Rhythm: Ran last to finish last prep in mares grade. Goes fine over the 1200m distance with wins over it and 1300m last prep and did look a bit beyond it over 1400m. Never won first up but goes well in this grade of class.
4. Modesty: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on two occasions while went fairly 2L 2nd in Adelaide on a soft track. Need to improve on last few runs to measure up here.
5. Gold Bar: Won last start at Sale and looks to come back to city grade for a chance at a win. BM-70 2nd to Smart Dart two back suggests she has her chances.
7. Zambezi Diamond:Two wins in a row before being well beaten last start when disappointing at MV. Can bounce back and run well today.
8. Emerenta: Hasn’t won in 7 runs this prep but did go close at Geelong two runs back. Will need to push forward today to be any shot from the wide barrier.
9. Star Impulse: 1600m back to 1200m today. Won once from 45 runs in this class in the past. Hard to have.
10. Doc’s Hero: Well backed today after a very nice start to finish win at Sale on a good surface. Has the early speed to get over from the barrier and as a 3YO was placed in higher levels.
11. Goldie’s Fortune: Last prep went through the grades well finishing with a win over 1600m in similar grade. Needs further on form.
12. Magna Rossa: This horse has untapped potential. She gives her all most times and has scored at Flemington in the past. First up not suited by soft but still ran well. Back to a good track and barrier 4.. well suited.
13. Najmaat: Hayes runner that ran 2.7L 4th last start in 3YOF grade. Four back was 4th in Group 3 behind I Am A Star. Goes well at this track. Barrier only issue and back in distance.
14. Zara Bay: First up today. Well beaten all last prep in similar or easier grade of races. Needs to show something today.
15. Purrpussful: Every chance first up and showed nothing. best form on previous preps suggest needs to improve to have a chance.
16. Maternal: Three runs this prep and placed well each time yet hasn’t gone close. Oliver jumps off. Should have her chances but not sure she is good enough.
17. Model Dragon: CL2 winner over in Adelaide after winning a maiden. Undefeated but well under the odds.
18. White House Lady: BM-64 winner four back then ran well the last three runs on wetter tracks. Never placed on good.
19. Licorice Bullet: Hard to suggest on previous runs this prep when well beaten last two starts. May appreciate a dryer track.
Comments: Rubbish race and very hard to beat into.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Magna Rossa E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 1800m – Argyle Maintenance Handicap
1. Freshwater Storm: Simply amazed by the price on offer today. Huge win last start at course and distance range when won by 2 lengths over a classy Open grade. Back to BM-84 here and suitable at the weights after claims. From barrier 4 will be going back and running on late which should be suited. Get him to the outside for a clear run unlike last start and he will be very hard to beat. Huge price.
2. Nozomi: Two runs this prep and fairly beaten significantly both times. New jockey onboard to try and claim down on the weights.. but clearly either needs further or easier races. Has to improve and poor barrier doesn’t help.
3. Electric Fusion: Every chance from the back last start but simply no good that far back. Obviously needs to jump better today and will be pushing forward to be on speed which could inject some needed speed into the race. Has to improve on last start but two previous runs were solid enough.
4. Wales: Disappointing last start at Flemington coming off a very strong win at Cranbourne. Best is good enough to run well based on two back run.
5. Distant Rock: Took 9 runs to get on the board this prep and had to drive over to Adelaide to get the win, and only just won by 0.1L. That being said, he has been running very consistently in similar grades of races or harder. Barrier makes it a big trouble to get a good spot today though.
6. All I Survey: Two runs this prep and very much destroyed in both runs. No real excuses either. Have to take on.
7. Hokkaido: Four runs this prep and yet to get a place. Big step up in class again really and I struggle to suggest anything better than a place.
8. Tears of Joy: Will be on speed today as per normal. Never won at track from 5 attempts or in this class from 6 attempts. First up run was fair. Will be much better suited by distance today.
9. The Thug: Very much suited last start at Sandown when allowed to sit on speed and run them around at a very slow speed before out sprinting the group. I don’t expect that to be the case today. Has to improve onwards.
10. Beau Padrille: Couldn’t place in BM-58 last start. Struggle to see why it’s running here.
11. Ferro Nero: Old mate can run a strong race. Good win two back in much easier grade over further on softer. Last start found out by the speed. Has claims.
13. Transfer Allowance: Second up run was much better than the first. Has won over similar distances in the past and does take a few runs to get started. A win wouldn’t be a total shock.
15. Riyadh: BM-64 winner. Well beaten put up to 2500m last start.. drop back to this distance looks more ideal.
Comments: Quaddie wise this is certainly an open race worth considering taking a wider look at. In terms of betting on this race, I’m super interested in backing in the price on Freshwater Storm. There is every chance that something takes them on out the front today and pushes the pace for old mate Freshy. The faster they go, the greater our chances.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 15
Strategy: Freshwater Storm – 2 units @ $13.77/$4.05 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Blue Star Group Plate
2. Gretna: Waller stable runner that seems to have the potential but needs to stand up today. Good enough 5th last start in Group 3 company. Well back in class here and only slightly up in weights. Maps well from inside barrier.
3. Sylpheed: Waterhouse runner. 2.8L off Impending last prep is very good form. D Oliver takes the ride and should be going forward from the barrier. Key chance.
4. Ariaz: Griffiths stable runner that went close in BM-70 grade first up at Sandown before being disappointing last start down the Flemington straight. Placed in 2YO G3 class last prep.
5. Extra Olives: BM-64 grade winner last start over 1300m. Pushed back to 1200m strangely instead of up in distance and back to her own age range. Hard to place her.
6. Motown Lil: Maiden winner last start. Previous run at MV ran very well 3rd behind Sweet Sherry. Maps well today from 6.
7. The Seductress: Well beaten her last three runs. Hard to suggest here.. but is worth noting she did win a 1000m 2Y-SWP at course and first up run was on a Heavy track. Could jump at a value price.
8. Angasi: Maiden winner first up. Well beaten last start at Flemington down the straight. Expect to be going forward today.
9. Exilia Miss: 2YO winner in Bendigo last prep before failing to fire in city class the next two starts. Struggle to see the form required unless she has gone to the next level.. which it’s hard to suggest.
10. Nurse Kitchen: Maiden winner first up at Geelong when beat a nice type in Perfectly Safe. Had a spell and comes back here nicely. Step back to 1200m the only issue in my eyes. Should run well.
11. Rather Silky: Maiden only winner. Well beaten the last two starts and did a lot wrong last start in easier grade. Struggle to suggest from barrier.
12. Single Rule: Maiden winner first up at Pakenham just holding off Divertente. Has to improve significantly again.
14. Cappadocia: Adelaide horse that did a great deal wrong first up and still won on a heavy track. Dryer here and big unknowns. Wouldn’t be over here if stable wasn’t confident of her chances.
15. Snitty Kitty: Maiden winner last start at Mornington and only just. Others preferred here.
16. Cheree’s Shinzig: Two runs and failed to get close in either. Race outsider for a reason.
Comments: Wide open race, but I have taken it down to five runners. Nurse Kitchen looks the value runner in the race – i really liked it’s only win to date and think it will come back ready to rock in this class of race. Motown Lil deserves to be fancied today but I couldn’t take the odds on offer. Sylpheed looks the horse with the most improvement to come today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10, 14
Strategy: Sylpheed to win. Also back Nurse Kitchen.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1440m – Ladbrokes Up For The Challenge Handicap
1. Lucky Paddy: Weir runner back in distance first up today. Never placed first up in the past but was very unlucky last prep first up. 4.3L win 2nd up last prep over this distance in easier grade than this. Went through the grades quite well and scored a city win. 1.8L 4th to finish prep behind Berisha in harder grade than this. Best runs have been with sting out of the ground and should get that today.
2. Sovereign Nation: 2 wins and 0 places on record from 10 starts. He either wins or doesn’t place based on those stats. First up in first prep 1600m win in Group 2 company as a 3YO and placed 4th in Group 1 company over similar distances. 2kg claim from Dunn gets him very well in at the weights and has to be considered a huge chance.
3. Inspector: Well beaten both starts this prep and jumps to 1400m today. Hasn’t won under 1600m in a long time and hasn’t won for a while either. Is better than this grade at his best but does take a few runs to get into it.
5. Master Reset: 3 runs for 0 places at this track in the past. Goes well first up on previous runs never missing a place and won 4 from 7 over this distance. Best runs have all been on dry tracks which he gets today also. Will be on speed and could be the leader.
6. Cool Chap: Very good type who placed in a Group 1 over 2500m. Won over 1200m last prep as well which shows how versatile he really is. I’m not overly convinced his very best is over this distance though and from barrier 13 will map awkwardly. That being said, it’s hard to dispute the last prep form around He’s Our Rokki, Daniela Rosa and a few others.
7. Amarela: Second up today. Ran home nicely in a harder race at course and distance first up. Better suited by the dryer track. Will get out the back but from barrier 3 could be slightly further forward than expected. Respect her class.
8. Caprese: Loves to run well without winning. Very hard horse to catch. Huge jump in class after not winning in 7 runs. Goes well at track but never won here or over this distance.
9. Manhattan Blues: Hayes stable type that seems to not find a lot of luck in running at the best of times. Good barrier today and up in class. Never placed at this distance or won at this track. Looks a bit of a throw at the stumps up in distance.
10. Anaphora: Three runs this prep and found very little to suggest a win today even back to this grade. One I want to take on.
11. Shillelagh: Ridden for luck last start and found arses at critical stages. Probably would have won the race if got all the breaks which is impressive for a horse pushed a long for most of the race. Toughed out the 1200m and looks ideally suited up in distance today. Will be getting back and running on very well.
12. Hardern: Never won first up or at this distance in the past. Has run well over 1400m for a 0.4L 3rd and 3L 6th behind Mahuta, but the best and winning form comes 1600m+.
Comments: Keen to be backing Shillelagh here after the first up run. Looked well suited by Caulfield and will be suited by the way this race will be run and extra 200m today. Main threats look to be Cool Chap, Soverign Nation and Amarela while Lucky Paddy does look the overs in the race.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 11
Strategy: Shillelagh – 2 units @ $4.40.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – M & D. Dillon Constructions Plate
1. Correggio: Smashed first up over 1200m. Up to 1600m today is more suitable with his last win over 1800m.. but that was in 2014! Hasn’t placed in his last 8 runs. Lowest grade he has been down to in a while as noted by the big weight.
2. Black Sheep: Weir runner that has always had ability in and around this grade. Won last start on heavy at distance in the country. Back to a dryer track no dramas today either and looks well weighted. Awkward barrier a big issue.
3. Bring Back: Never won first up in 7 preps and gets better later into his runs. Distance is short of his very best but can still run handy over 1600m. Better chance than the odds suggest.
5. Amber Cavalier: Been up and about forever this prep. Only two wins in much easier grades of races.. but has been running well enough overall in similar grades recently. Does need to improve and get a dream run to win.
6. Eye The World: Hayes runner with the Dunn claim. Won 4 back… will be going back in the running needs to improve.
7. Shikarpour: Weir runner that was competitive in Open grade two preps back. First two runs this prep have been decent in easier grades of races. Big step up in grade up to the 1600m today. obviously Weir believes he is up to it even with the 59kg.. the same weight he got in a BM-64.
8. Triple Gold: BM-70 winner at Sale last prep then failed to get within 2.8L of a win. Only ever won twice from 19 starts a big concern and only one from 12 on a Good track. Horror barrier.
9. Hezagoa: Been well placed this prep having won 2 of last 4 races in MUCH easier races. Best seen on a wetter track. Never placed on good.
10. Honourable Tycoon: Ended last prep with some very strong runs in similar grade. First and second up this prep ran terrible. D Oliver jumps on today though with a few weeks between runs and back to 1600m.
11. Macquarie Magic: Country win in similar grade last start on soft. Was a much easier race than this though. Best seen on wetter.
12. Tempered: Clear top chance today. two runs this prep on synthetic for two seconds behind some nice horses. Up to 1600m where last prep he ran well behind horses like Tally. Doesn’t win often but looks well in 3rd up here.
13. Ten Goals: 1600m win last start in much easier grade. Took several runs to get that win also. Has to improve significantly again at the weights.
14. Dreaded: Hasn’t shown enough in past runs or with the first up run to suggest a win.
15. Polar Vortex: A horse that is hard to catch… he does have more potential than most believe especially when you look at the 0.9L 3rd to Tally last prep over 1600m. Ran nice enough 6th behind He’s Our Rokkii and looks a big chance.
16. Making Mayhem: Very good horse at a younger age. Four runs this prep have bene average at best with wins in easier grades and every chance last start at Sale. Stepping up in distance and has never won over this previously.
17. Schopenhauer: CL3 winner in the country last start. Hard horse to place on form and ratings.
18. Super Haze: Nice enough run first up in CL2 grade when beaten. Needs to improve.
Comments: Wide open race as seen by the Quaddie Leg. I have a big lean to Polar Vortex in this race from the back. Tempered is the second pick in the race so I feel the bookies do have it relatively right.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Polar Vortex E/W
