Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caufield on 29 August 2015 for Memsie Stakes Day. As suggested last week, we put in the extra hours to try and get the our results back on track and that’s exactly what happened with our form on point with our races would be run, unfortunately a few seconds didn’t help the results, but it was defiantly a good return to form for us heading into the Spring features and this meeting today. We have put in as much work this week and also walked the track twice to make sure we have all the factors covered, so hopefully it results in the wins today. There are quite a few tricky races today i want to avoid and i admit the Memsie is one of them. I will be on track so feel free to send through any questions on twitter. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Charmed Harmony to win.
The rain came on Thursday for this boom horse to get the sting out of the track required to lead them at a brutal tempo out front and finish them off a long way out. Match fit compared to opposition who are mainly having their first runs of the prep. Rates as the best of the day. Please note 90% confidence for Soft 5 track, a downgrade to Good 4 is acceptable but I will be lowing my bet size by 25%.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Rich Enuff to win
I couldn’t have been any more impressed with his trials than I was considering they were on a Heavy track. He gave me the indication that he wants to be racing today the way he savaged the line in both trials and more importantly, he handled sting out of the ground. He will have no pressure and will be allowed to set the tempo and put them away if good enough. Has the ratings. I will be having a saver bet on Miss Promiscuity in the race to bet to break even – think she is the main danger and the Hayes yard say she is going the best of any horse in their yard currently.
Melbourne Best E/W bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Vezalay Each-Way
Snuck this horse in under the E/W bet as it just missed out on being a best bet – i’d be shocked if it misses place but feel there is huge value in the win component also. Very competitive field but the horse was SUPER impressive last start and will go on with it today. Getting $4+ and $1.80+ to place best around in shopping and i doubt the money comes for Vezalay much more than it already has considering the field size and barrier. A repeat of last start and the expected improvement should see the horse win and at worst run top 3.
Mega Multi – Beers Are On You?
Caufleld R2 Alaskan Rose, R5 Rich Enuff, R6 Charmed Harmony, R7 Vezalay – Paying $52.50 at Sportsbet at time of publishing (probably better around).
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 18
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, 17
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 8, 11, 14, 17
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Cape Grim Beef Plate
1. Set Square: Best runs in the past clearly over further with an Oaks win to her name. First up last prep did go very close 2nd over 1400m at Flemington. Race Plates on today and top weight by far.
2. Abidewithme: Finished off last prep over in NZ with a 2000m win. Can run well but clearly on form is wanting further.
3. Danestroem: Always threatened to be a good type and has measured up in the past at this level but did really look well wound up in a trial heading into this. 3kg claim has her at the bottom of the weights and the rain will do no harm.
5. Samartested: Finished off last prep with a very good win at course and distance. Very average run first up and hard to see the big improvement, needs the run it seems.
6. Redasun: Dashed right past them last start at Sandown ridden 3-wide no cover. Well weighted and looks one to beat here.
7. Kansas Sunflower: Shes’s a very good sort and has had a while between runs to freshen up for Spring. Back to 1400m looks very suitable today. Will go well.
8. Mossbeat: Very disappointing run last start at Sandown when had every chance and just got well beaten by Redasun. Happy to avoid today.. place bet if going for it.
9. Black Booty: Struggle to suggest a win for her. Looks the outsider of the race on form.
Comments: A tough way to open the day with 7 of the 8 runners all in single figures giving you an idea of just how open the race is. Kansas Sunflower gets the nod from Danestroem.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Kansas Sunflower to win. Smaller bet Danestroem.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Montague Tree Handicap
1. Giulietta: Very disappointing run first up considering the runs shown last prep. Hard to have.
2. Sebring Sally: Ran home well enough last start at Moonee Valley from midfield. On previous runs would prefer more rain but won’t get it. Bossy onboard doesn’t help chances from a tricky draw.
3. Air Apparent: Very disappointing return to the track first up when well beaten 2nd in a maiden as $1.30 favourite. Hard to have based simply on the first up display.
4. Alaskan Rose: Exploded away first up at Sandown to win very well by 4.5 lengths. Positive barrier and will be on speed today. Looks well suited here.
5. Sailing By: Good ride last start for a nice win at Sandown in maiden class. Shown enough to suggest can improve.
6. Circle Game: Canberra maiden winner in slow time as short priced favourite on a soft 7. Hard to rate in this class.
7. Eclat: Every chance last start but well beaten. Can’t have.
8. Overstay: Can’t see her going close to turning it around on the fav.
9. Shining Star: Poor barrier. Only win on a heavy 9 coming into this. Struggle to suggest.
10. Tia: Couldn’t place in maidens.. shouldn’t be in this race.
Comments: Alaskan Rose looks the real deal on the first up run. Improvement on that run would see this talented Filly pull away from them in the straight. Price is backable.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Alaskan Rose to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap
1. Bishop’s Castle: Expect to roll forward. Two very good runs to start the prep at MV and Flemington but since then last two starts were very poor on soft surfaces. Top weight… hard to find.
2. Inspector: Awkward barrier should see him find a midfield position if not slightly closer to the speed. Last two runs well beaten in harder races… back in this rating race three back just missed. Can go okay here.
3. Real Time: Went through the grades very well last prep and finished it off with a very nice win up north at the Gold Coast. Good barrier today should see him well positioned… has a big upside.
4. Sir Berus: Ran ‘well’ first up down the Flemington straight when never exactly a chance and finished off into 5th. Up to 1200m today will certainly suit better than the 1000m but is clearly best over 1400m on past runs. Has to use the gate advantage to have a chance.
6. Cross of Gold: Two very poor runs at Geelong then bounced back last start at Flemington when ran nicely for 2nd in this class over 1400m. Back to 1200m questionable but rates nicely in this. Barrier the key issue.
7. Reddamour: Very good 2nd up record and has won twice before in this class. First up run was fine and up to 1200m will be a positive. Certainly has to improve from that first run but does have the ability.
8. Belorum: Very consistent horse only missing a place in 2 of his last 9 races (both 4ths) while winning four of those. Finished off last prep in much harder grade than this where he got back to last and was blocked for runs when running a very valid 3rd. Never won first up is a big issue but certainly always runs well still. Did get back to R-58 grade last prep and best runs were over further.
9. Orient Line: Well backed favourite first up over the 1000m at Flemington but well beaten even though blocked for runs. Well up in the weight here today back in class… should run better today but you do have to have questions after that first up run. Is a 3YO winner over 1400m… 1200m should be fine but best run clearly his peak is over 1400m. May not have handled the soft.
10. Written: Will be going forward from out wide. Ran very well in mares grade last start from out the front over the 1400m at Flemington. If the track is a Good 4 by jump time i’d have to give her a very good chance on what i’ve seen this prep going back to this grade.
11. Smokin’ Al: Well up in grade last start at Flemington and up to 1400m simply found a few too good on what looked a down run. Rates very well here today on two previous runs. Tricky barrier the issue. Expect them to try push forward to give every chance.
12. Sentfromthestars: Poor run first up at Flemington. Hard to have on what we saw there.. but she did run 0.8L 2nd in F&M class at Flemington last prep… but that race didn’t rate very well overall. Hard horse to rate today.
13. Squeaky Squirrel: Won well first up on a heavy track then just missed last start as favourite on a soft track at Seymour. Well up in grade here today but no reason why he can’t run well from a good barrier.
14. Kayjay’s Joy: Always promised to be a good horse from what we saw up in Sydney. Got her Victorian career off on the right note with a win at Geelong and rates well today to make the jump up again to another grade.
15. Northern Saint: Ran home nicely enough for 4th at Flemington in harder company. Previous run at course and distance did similar off a low weight. Barrier makes it very hard to see her positioning well enough to win without riding for luck and getting a gem.
16. Roll The Ignition: Had every possible chance out the front last start at Caulfield and was very poor failing to get within 6L of the winner. A little sting out should suit… we know her best is good enough to rate well but it’s hard to trust her here. Good barrier.
17. Matagami: First emergency – Won 3 in a row before well beaten last start by Lord Esprit when further back than expected and blocked for runs. Obviously has ability and good barrier.
18. Lord Esprit: Got the win over Matagami last start. Horrible barrier and will be far back. Hard to have really from draw.
19. Master Sommelier: Hong Kong galloper sent back over here to Hayes stable. Measured up with a win in CLS3 class which is good enough to win this if finds similar form. Hasn’t been seen in over 10 months.
20. Amiconi Originale: A little stiff to be 4th emergency in this field considering past two runs. Going very well and would be a chance from a better barrier.
Comments: This is actually one of the worst betting events i’ve seen all year on a metro card in terms of the horses involved, barriers and just in general how competitive the race is. Even if i was several beers deep on track (i most likely will), i would have 0 desire to be putting stolen money down on this race. All that being said, I’ll give you a tip and it’s on the most progressive horse in the race in Real Time. Looks the only way I could bet into this race on the E/W if talking about it.
Confidence 10%
Strategy: Real Time E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1200m – H.D.F McNeil Stakes
1. Prince of Brooklyn: Two good trials coming into this today when you consider both the runs on Heavy, but my issue is how he jumped. Both those trials he missed the start which for me is very concerning in this grade of race as you want to be on speed with this horse based on last prep. Think he has a big future but will be be better over 1400-1600m than the 1200m? Probably? Is he good enough to win this? Hell yes. Rain has come which helps chances also.
2. Gold Symphony: Hard to talk down the win of Gold Symphony last start when wide no cover and won very well. What did he beat last start is the question. Bossy in poor form onboard again today from inside barrier, will get a trouble free run.
3. Ready for Victory: Two strong trials heading into this prep and didn’t show any of the greenness seen on the track last prep. Found his best over the 1200m on a longer track in Flemington.. takes a while to wind up but has the ability. Best seen on Good 3 track.
4. Stoker: Ran ‘well enough’ last start without impressing at course over 1100m. Can improve on that run but certainly needs to find much more than we saw last start to measure up here. Didn’t look comfortable on the soft first up.
5. Demonstrate: Decent enough win two back on the soft track at MV then ran well last start at Caulfield but couldn’t manage a place. Can improve here but certainly would need to. Barrier hurts.
6. Top Me Up: Will be going forward. best been seen on good tracks. Good horse but he keeps finding a few too good to run him down and i’m off the band wagon in this grade.
7. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Pulled up shin sore which explains a little bit the way he finished off. Had every chance in reality with the tempo. Hard to have really from that barrier.
8. Equinova: Well beaten two back and then last start well beaten by others in this race. Best run on heavy.
9. Brockhoff: Fair maiden win first up this prep when well backed. Looks to have ability. Poor barrier only negative apart from jockey.
10. Mr Individual: Very very handy win first up at Bendigo when wide doing alot of work. Go well on the similarly wet track today as well… goal this prep is Guineas so longer is better and Oliver not on.
11. Stream Ahead: Very handy run last start at Moonee Valley. Looks a very good type to the eye. Barrier ideal if doesn’t miss the start this time!
Comments: Very competitive race today. Prince of Brooklyn looks the real deal on last prep and is the deserved favourite while Mr Individual looks the horse in this race i want to be following going forward to the Guineas and hopefully puts in a very good run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Prince of Brooklyn to win. Smaller bet Mr Individual.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – theshark.com.au Stakes
1. Rich Enuff: Two trials coming into this were hard to miss. Most importantly, it looked like he had no issues on the wet tracks so can’t take anything away from him today. Clearly the leader and clearly the one to beat.
2. Richie’s Vibe: Ran quite well all things considered first up in G3 company over in Adelaide. This is obviously much harder. Could run a place.
3. Thermal Current: Group 3 winner last prep over in Adelaide and didn’t run too badly in Group 1 company. Improvement on last prep could see him in the finish. Best runs on dryer ground though.
4. Under The Louvre: Group 1 2nd last prep in the Oakleigh Plate and 3rd in the Goodwood from just too far back. Clearly has the ability to win this if finds his best first up and the rain helps chances.
5. Bull Point: Nice trial. A non-winner on recent records and best runs have been just below this mark. Looks like he needs the run.
6. The Bowler: Finished last prep with a Group 3 under his belt after winning 4 from 5 including a Heavy track win. Wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a win here at odds.
7. Bounding: Well beaten into 2nd both her placings in group company last prep. Trials have been decent, but has to improve on what we have seen.
8. Miss Promiscuity: Very strong Group 3 win last start at course and distance in similar circumstances. Hard not to suggest she can measure up after that last win… does have to improve ratings though.
Comments: Rich Enuff has trialed like a Group 1 winner and looks hard fit coming into this. Shouldn’t be an issue with the softer track today either and the rail should be playing very well for him here. Miss Promiscuity looks the main danger on paper from Under The Louvre.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Rich Enuff to win. Saver bet Miss Promiscuity.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – hockingstuart Handicap
1. Amralah: Uk import. Last run overseas was a WFA-G3 win over Hillstar. Only run last prep in WFA-G1 over 2000m was a fail. This is clearly just a warm up run for better things. He is an interesting runner really considering he will be from barrier 3… he could jump on speed and stalk Charmed Harmony and the pace should suit.
2. Charmed Harmony: Unlucky to not be getting a run in the Memsie as he would be a clear winning chance as the speed horse in the race.. a horse 24 rating points lower is ahead of him in the emergency list! Convincing wins the last three runs at Caulfield and Flemington by over 2 lengths in this class. He would have been licking his lips on Thursday when the rain was bucketing down… Good 4 will be enough to see him handling this track and beating these.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Goes well enough first up but never won at this track (a 0.1L 2nd). Best runs clearly over the 1600m+ in the past but has always measured up to this class. If there is a horse who is suited by the pace being put on my Charmed Harmony, he will be the one based on previous runs and he could actually mess with the favourite out the front. Stable says track work has been good but sound like they know he needs the run.
4. Trevieres: Another classy runners gets a run here… we haven’t seen this bloke since a Group 1 2nd to Solzhenitsyn in 2013! Previous to that won in France in Open class three times that prep before coming out here. Best runs over further than this distance the issue and never handled a soft ground.
5. Desert Jeuney: Well beaten last start by Charmed Harmony after missing the start. Has issues and hard to trust here.
6. Tall Ship: In for a very good prep by all reports and i have a high opinion of him…. think he can win the Caulfield Cup if they decide to take him there and the rain comes! Will be doing his best work late but can’t see him being competitive over this distance.
7. Rhythm To Spare: First up and has won at course and over this distance in the past and also won twice first up. Best runs in past have been on Good AND soft so no issues with ground. Last prep measured up in Group 1 company running well for 1.3L 5th. Has the ability but barrier takes away his chances for mine.
9. Genuine Lad: last 12 runs he has won 5 and placed the rest, he is super consistent and very well placed in the past. Best runs over further but he handles this distance.
11. Sysmo: Only won once first up in the past and hasn’t the last four preps. Best runs over further distances and while i expect him to run very well, i think the distance gets him done from the awkward barrier.
14. He or She: Consistent type over in WA and certainly a boom horse over there. Didn’t have much go right on run at Flemington last prep and can be forgiven for how he ran. Should be running on well today from a better barrier. Not sure he deserves to be 2nd favourite though.
15. Awesome Rock: Was always there or there abouts at 2 and 3 in group company but never got the win. 1200-1400m looks his ideal distance but I struggle to suggest him here today first up. Will take a good training effort to turn him around to win this.
16. Zebrinz: First up ran ‘okay’ when too far off them and only one paced really over the 1200m. Best runs clearly previous prep were later into runs and over further. Does look handy but this may be beyond him 2nd up.
17. Sir Andrew: Money muncher over in Australia so far. Has put in some very good runs but never got close to a win. Will be out the back again today and running on late.
18. Pressing: Had no luck first run in and step up to 1400m obviously suits him. Ran 4th in a 2Y-GP1 but since then hasn’t been within 3L of a win. Has ability and the wetter the track the better for him.
Comments: When all is said and done, my stats and eyes go straight back to Charmed Harmony being the best horse in this race and the horse to beat. Confidence based on Soft 5 track. Downgrade to 85% with a Good 4 track at jump time.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 18
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – William Hill Sprint Series Heat 1
1. Cosmic Endeavour: Goes well first up but the Waterhouse stable really don’t have a great record down in Melbourne as of recent. Her best runs have been over further than this with 1400m+ being the distance i prefer her at best. Should be just off the speed from barrier 9 with any luck and should go well if the tempo is on.
2. May’s Dream: Hard horse to catch… didn’t win last two preps in fact. Never won first up in the past but has won at track. Needs to eb focusing back on the longer distances.
3. Hazard: Massive last prep winning a few group races including one over Miss Promiscuity (also beat her the previous race also). Get the feeling she didn’t enjoy the soft track to finish last prep run either. 1200m is ideal for her and loves this track. Gate is the massive issue and it will take a gem of a ride from Melham to pull this off. Good news is he has 600m to find a good spot and the outside ground was fine when i walked it.
4. Griante: Very very disappointing run first up out the front at Caulfield when she had every chance and failed to finish off the race. Wide barrier means she will be doing a load of work and would need to improve significantly on the first up run to measure up.
5. Estonian Princess: Hasn’t placed in a long time. Very very poor run last start. hard to have.
6. Girl Guide: Hasn’t been seen on the track since failing in the WFA-G1 to end last prep. Did run a good 2nd to Madam Gangster before that but best runs over 1400m than 1200m for mine.
7. Vibrant Rouge: Trialed very well i thought coming into this prep. Goes well at distance and loves to finish off well… but 1200m may just be too short and never won at track (gone close twice).
8. Madam Gangster: Boom horse last two preps measuring up and going through the grades. Missed the start and that cost her a win to finish last prep IMO. Clearly has the ability but best seen over further and barrier doesn’t help.
9. Loved Up: Massive win at Scone from the back to end last prep. Goes fine at this dsitance but better over 1400m. Will be a long way back in the race. Need a gem of a ride to win.
10. Jessy Belle: Hello lovely lady! She keeps delivering for punters having won very well the last two starts and backed up form lines with Miss Rose De Lago winning since. Barrier 6 is ideal here and only concern is back to 1200m today and the softer track.
12. Scarlet Billows: Goes very well first up on record… failed to measure up to this class at the end of last prep in terms of getting close to wins but certainly has the ability to on what we have seen. Need to see her go around today i think.
13. More Radiant: 3YOF winner last prep… ran very well with bottom weight in Mares grade last start behind Vezalay but never looked likely of winning. Hard to see the turn around today.
14. Double Dee: A bit of a surprise winner first up on the soft ground but defiantly had the ability on previous runs. This looks much harder but you do have to consider.
15. Soosa Rama: Blocked for runs first up but didn’t show anywhere near as much as you wanted to see to back with confidence today. Needs further
16. Petite Diabelesse: Goes well first up. Last prep proved 1200-1400m is her best distances but never measured up in this grade in the past.
17. Vezalay: Very very very classy win first up never pushed the whole way and even lost a plate. Weighted even better today all things considered and should have no trouble getting the lead and running this race out.
Comments: Vezalay’s win last start was as good as it looked and could have been even better if the horse was tested from the turn. Loves this track and rates very well. Everything is in her favour today, including juicy odds allowing an E/W bet.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, 17
Strategy: Vezalay 1 unit to win 1.5 units to place
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Memsie Stakes
2. Happy Trails: Old mate can never be discounted even over the 1400m – never runs well first up remember – but he is certainly up against it today with a soft track predicted and he just doesn’t handle it. Happy to bet around.
3. Boban: His chances for mine all depend on the track condition. I think he gets the Good 4 he wants so have to consider him, but a soft 5 i give him very little chance. Form barrier i’d be hoping they try and be a little more handy with him today than previously as with a field this size you just won’t get the required splits. Obviously has the ability.
4. Temple of Boom: First up ran nicely enough as favourite in a WFA-G2… but can you honestly see him winning a WFA-G1 as a 9YO beating this lot? I’d be shocked and happy to bet around even on that first up run.
5. Dandino: Clearly better runs and distances to come. Has a long way back to prove he is still a top class group horse after the injury he had to recover from.
6. Smokin’ Joey: Breathing issues last start explain the very poor run at Caulfield. Previous run would be good enough to measure up a chance here but the sting out doesn’t help.
7. Sertorious: Consistent type who hardly ever runs a bad race. Goes well first up and loves this track. Better over further is the simple thing to remember here.
8. Weary: Very strong run first up at Randwick just beaten by Burbero. Previous prep put in some shockers but also a few good runs worth following. 1400m looks his distance and any sting out will help.
9. Prince of Penzance: Needs further.
10. Entirely Platinum: Frustrating type who loves to run well and not win. Been a long time between drinks (over a year) and while he has placed 2nd to Dissident in WFA-G1 over this distance, this race looks very competitive and I can see at least one horse running past him. Take on.
11. VolkStok’N’Barrell: He’s the real deal boys and girls, no doubt about it, but how will he come out from 3YO group races into WFA-G1? Time will tell won’t it. Price looks a tough of unders for mine from barrier.
12. Magicool: Needs further to find best… good type and will go well over further this prep.
13. Petrology: Very disappointing runs first and second up. Blinkers on today should do the trick but hard to trust. Another rider change as top jocks jump off? 7 runs at track for 0 wins.
14. Hi World: Did everything right last prep winning well over further distances. 1400m may just be a tad too short for mine and his best runs were on wetter tracks. Will get a gem of a position from the barrier, but I think he is outclassed (i know others think he is a top 2 pick that i respect).
15. Setinum: Very good win in listed grade first up… drawn the carpark and will be out the back takes away his chances for mine. Keep an eye out for him though when draws a good barrier.
16. Rising Romance: Began last prep with a Open class win in NZ over 1500m. Goes well over this distance.. obviously goal is later into prep.
17. Stratum Star: First emergency who gets a run. Did alot wrong first up and had to do a load of work, was simply a forgive and back next start run. Barrier drawn today is MUCH better and maps very well. 1400m looks to be ideal on previous runs but certainly does find a way to lose when you consider how many 2nds and 3rds in 3YO class.
18. Trevieres: Too short a distance? Too long off.
19. Pressing: Prefer it wetter than expected and barrier kills chances.
20. Charmed Harmony: He won’t get a run, if he does and a Soft 5, he can win.
Comments: This could very well be the most difficult feature race of the season. So many chances and little between all of them. Can you trust the 3YO’s to make the jump to WFA-G1 level first up when this isn’t their best distances? Jury is out for mine. My lean in the race is towards a horse with a horrible barrier. if Craig Newitt can find Weary a good position in running he looks a very good chance.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 8, 11, 14, 17
Strategy: Weary E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1700m – Heatherlie Stakes
1. Taiyoo: Thought his first up run was very very good considering the unsuitable 1400m distance. Horrible barrier drawn in 17 today but up to 1700m has to be suitable for this talented group winner. Watch for a very good run with a Caulfield Cup target not out of reach for mine…
2. Extra Zero: Did everything expected of him first up running 2nd to Charmed Harmony. Extra distance today will obviously suit but most likely a soft track which he has never won on. Needs a good track to find his best.
3. Excess Knowledge: Talented type who ran well enough on speed over 1400m last start in WFA-G2 when 2L 5th. Well back in class here yet only gets the 58kg so looks well suited. Should be no issues with the distance selected today and should run well. Barrier looks the main issue… will he really get on speed from there? Doesn’t have to be on speed has the ability as shown 3 runs back to come from the back. I think this is one horse that isn’t suited by Gai’s training mentality of on speed and i’d love to see them take a sit.
4. Escado: Finally got a win to finish off the prep… costly horse just missing so many times. Not expected to find a huge amount first up today but can run well from the barrier with cover.
5. Sonntag: Just here for the run building into a cups prep as seen by last prep when built into the distances.
6. Bold Sniper: Queens horse, import that’s been sent over and clearly suited to further. Tricky type but can run well at this distance.
7. Maygrove: Disappointing two runs in Aus when beaten by Phrases then failed next start. Some of these NZ types need a second run in Aus to find their best… won at 1800m last prep so distance shouldn’t be the issue.
8. La Amistad: Flemington win over 3200m to finish last prep. Clearly needs further.
9. Let’s Make Adeal: Best rating runs in the past suggest she can run well today. First up always goes okay and distance not bad but never won at track and prefers a longer straight. Barrier is horrid.
10. Travolta: Old mate looks absolutely done on his three runs. Take on.
11. Dylan’s Promise: South African import FM-GP2 winner. Showed absolutely nothing first up on the soft. Needs further than this still to find best.
12. Lord Durante: Close but missed last start at MV over 2000m. Has in the past successfully gone up in distances and dropped back to 1600m or so successfully. Take on at your peril especially in the Quaddie.
13. Iggimacool: Old mate loves to chew our cash with three flashy runs but losing all three. Bossy onboard hurts chances and so does barrier, but you have to believe if she runs up to last start she is a big chance.
14. Onpicalo: Had all the favours last start. Up in weight today certainly doesn’t help and won’t get an easy time to control it out front either.
15. Magnapal: Big win first up at Sandown when wasn’t considered a chance in the market. Looks in for a good prep based on that run and should be able to measure up to this class. Could go under the radar and barrier 2 will give him a perfect stalking run.
16. Dig a Pony: Had the race run to suit last start at course and similar distance… will have it run that same way again today but much harder competition.
17. Pacficic Heights: First emergency.. stable believes he is going well enough to measure up… i agree last start was a good run but not so sure personally he has the ability to beat all these.
18. Another Lad Al: Not here mate!
Comments: Iggimacool being the favourite with Glen Boss onboard is quite laughable for what looks a very tricky end to the Quaddie. Bold Sniper also looks well under the odds and even Excess Knowledge can’t be trusted from that barrier at the price. Magnapal appeals at the price but I get the feeling Lord Durante will be perfectly positioned to pinch this when it matters. Watch for Taiyoo running on luckless.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 15
Strategy: Lord Durante E/W
