Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 26 September 2015. Last week was certainly the weakest form lines going around for a few months as shown by our confidence levels and they proved correct down in Melbourne, while the Sydney Best Bet saved the day getting home the most confident bet of the day. Just how much more confident are we today? There are four races with a higher confidence than our best bet at Caulfield last week. This week will sort the boys from the men… and girls from the women in regards to the 3YOs heading into the Guineas, while i think we will have a clearer picture of a few runners heading towards larger Spring feature targets. Keep an eye out also for Order of St George, currently in quarantine but not confirmed yet… RV think the horse is coming and the $21 at Bet365 (around $17 others best) will move into single figures when the horse lands for the Melbourne Cup. As always, you can check out my trackwalking thoughts on Twitter – it revealed the best rail i’ve seen in a long time… the other ground isn’t bad, just the rail is lush and perfect! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Disposition to win
Tempo will be on in the race. Disposition maps perfectly to sit just off the leaders to have the last shot at them. Expect the field to stretch out as per normal in these types of races which should give Disposition a run. Very keen at the price.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Miss Gunpowder to win
Painless win last start in Adelaide and looks a very good sort based on the runs this prep. Will get a dream run out the front today and with the rail expected to be the place to be early, i’m very happy to take the price on offer. Most importantly, in this race, the two clear dangers to Miss Gunpowder map to get runs 3-4 lengths back. Tactical advantage on our side today.
Melbourne Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7 – The Cleaner Each-Way
Posted up early this week on twitter, the price has dropped but he is still value. Perfect barrier, will have an uncontested lead and will set a brutal tempo… if they are good enough to get past… so be it, but on my ratings he has gone to the next level this prep and this in his race to lose with the two favourites not 100% fit in my opinion.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 11, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – Pancare Foundation Plate
Gear Changes: Matilija – Blinkers First Time, Tahni Dancer – Winkers Off, Thinking of You – Blinkers Off.
1. Atmospherical: Trialled well leading into first up run at Randwick and was well backed into $7 but failed to get close finishing off okay but not impressing. A while between drinks… very high weight in this grade today even with claim.
2. Afleet Esprit: Ran well enough first up when 4th at Sandown. 22 days between run and has been training the house down at home. Down to 57kg with claim and looks well in from the barrier. Expect to be ridden for luck. Goes well at track.
3. Lesley’s Choice: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield when all the front runners fell out of the race. Much better seen two back at Doomben but hard to back based on first run in Melb even though she is going forward.
4. Nautical: Hard horse to catch. Best runs seen over further than 1100m in the past, but she is certainly handy enough to be a threat today. Barrier is horrible.
5. Beach Front: Two horrible runs and then last start returned to form in a more forward run beaten by Fell Swoop and Griante ran home for 3rd. Hard to ignore the form lines of those two horses around her. We know from past runs she has ability, barrier 13 not ideal but will roll forward again. Does have to improve.
6. Pittsburgh Flyer: Lightly raced 4yo. Measured up last prep with a strong win over Earthquake at Flemington, but was getting 7kg weight swing that day. Went well up in the ratings after that and failed to get close to a place three runs after that on wetter tracks. Best runs on dry tracks. Will get a nice sit from the barrier.
7. Pilly’s Wish: Good consistent little horse who always gives 100%, but since coming up to these harder races seems to always find a few too good. Awkward barrier again today doesn’t help. Has the ability to go close but expect to get midfield at best in run.
8. Fiftyshadesofgrey: First up run was decent 1.8L 4th to Sultry Feeling hitting the line okay but next start well beaten 6th in harder company by Catkins. Best runs in past on wetter tracks.
9. Japhils: Two back won well at course and similar distance, but didn’t beat much that day. Ran nicely last start at Sandown but found two too good. 53.5kg today should give her every chance with the way the rail is expected to play, especially if pushed along from the turn.
10. Catch That Cat: Solid enough run first up and previous prep did look an improving type. Up in class again today a concern from a poor barrier.
11. Matilija: Well backed today and from barrier 8 off 52kg looks to get a clean run about 3 horses back off the rails. Goes well on all surfaces and last prep got a win over a handy type in Vezalay. First up I thought she had every possible chance and wasn’t good enough. Blinkers go on but certainly has to find lengths for mine.
12. Tahni Dancer: Hold me closer… never won first up and best runs in the past have been over 1400m+. One to take on today.
Comments: I struggle to see why Matilija is the favourite today and i’m very happy to take the horse on. The same goes for Atmospherical at the weights, it’s hard to back anything with that weight here. Pittsburgh Flyer looks a key chance in this race, but the price doesn’t leave any room for profit. The two standouts are Japhils and Beach Front. Japhils will get the gun rails run leading them all the way and with such a low weight, Beriman can boot Japhils home and never be passed. Beach Front was very good last start and has the further improvement required today to be in the finish from a positive position in running.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Japhils to win. Smaller bet Beach Front.
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Inglis Cup
Gear Changes: Bondeiger – Blinkers First Time, Allzin – Bubble Checker Near Side First Time, Hell on Earth – Tongue Tie again & Tongue Control Bit Off, Castelo – Gelded, Taqneen – Tongue Control and Lugging Bit first time, Standard Bit Off.
1. Bondeiger: Showed nothing first two runs this prep which is a worry even with the 1700m run last start. Being trained for much further with 2400m+ distances in mind, I think we have to take on again today.
2. Firehouse Rock: Last two runs were solid enough to consider him a chance today… but certainly has to improve a length on those runs to measure up here and questions over if he gets the distance from runs in the past.
3. Braces: BM-70 grade up to this today certainly looks a large jump. Not sure i’d want to be on him here.
4. Muraqaba: Three runs three wins and being thrown in the deep end. Beaten all he has faced too date but this is certainly a tough ask.
5. Gloryland: Very nice run two back at Sandown and just beaten last start at Seymour, but it wasn’t the classiest race and there were several in the finish.
6. Allzin: Ran quite well last prep with a 3YO 2nd at Ipswich but failed in harder company next start. Two runs back have been fair but not enough to take this..
7. Hell on Earth: Looked a very good type early doors… ran 4th in 3YO-LR at Flemington start of prep but has gone backwards since.. couldn’t win a BM-64.
8. Castelo: Ultimate gear change gelded. Good maiden win and ran fairly behind Pharrel next start and didn’t get much it’s way last start.. hard to have up to this grade.
9. Sloane Ranger: Embarrassing that this horse is seeing a city track.
10. Taqneen: 0 wins 1 place from 6 starts. Beaten 32L last start and 5L run before in maidens.
11. Loved Up: Proved a very good horse last prep but two runs this prep shown absolutely nothing. Hard to have even with the break between runs.
12. Kansas Sunflower: Pretty much one of three horses you could actually back here today. Questions over if she will handle the 2000m but i believe so. Best seen on Good tracks as well and best runs on speed. Rates well.
Comments: Horrible field but at least it means there are only a few changes. Kansas Sunflower the standout. Bondeiger probably the value even though i can’t back it.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kansas Sunflower to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap
Gear Changes: Craftiness – Winkers First Time, Sabatini – Concussion Plates First Time, The Mosntar – Norton Bit Off, The Thief – Blinkers First Time.
2. Kuro: Had no luck first up so hard to judge just how well the horse is going. Wide barrier today makes things a bit awkward to get a perfect spot in running. May just push forward which for mine would be best for the horse. If tactics are to go forward, then winning is very possible.
3. Hard Stride: Ran some decent races last prep with just the one win in much easier class, but it was a classy win. Will be pushing for the lead today from barrier 4 and looks to get it on mapping. Goes well at track and only goes well on Good tracks it appears which helps. Will be putting the speed on in the race.
4. Unanimously: Very poor run first up. Poor barrier today will make it very hard to get a good spot in running. Form from last prep in open class obviously good enough but struggle to back on that first up run and barrier today.
5. Craftiness: Has been well backed. Good run 2nd to Shiraz last start at Randwick when first up. Back to a firmer track today may just do the trick with best runs on firmer tracks. Will be pushing forward and handles brutal tempo out front.
6. Rock Royalty: Surrpise winner to end the prep at Grafton beating Barbed. First up record is okay but last prep improved into runs. Only a small spell so should still be fit i’d suggest. Barrier helps to get a good run just off the leaders.
7. Sea Lord: Not in this class today off the last few runs. Won’t get the lead.
8. The Quarterback: Not the worst run in the race last start at Moonee Valley but was well beaten. Has quite a few issues, i’m happy to take him on.
9. Sabatini: Looked a very very good type last prep first and second run in beating some good types over distance at track. Out into open grade needs to be peaking to measure up. Will get further back than i’d want.
10. The Monstar: Consistent type who continues to run well in open grade, but not sure he is this level. Take on.
11. The Thief: The name says it all. Take him on.
12. Tristram’s Sun: Needs further.
14. Durendal: Very talented horse and he proved his worth as a 3YO with some very good wins at course and distance and was a brave third up at Doomben to finish the prep.
Comments: A rough race to pick the winner in. Kuro is a good horse, but the speed map has him getting caught 3-wide or having to spend all his gas to get the lead and i just can’t take him here. Craftiness is obviously a good horse also but i have to question his ability not to beat Shiraz last start. Is he really going as well as the odds suggest? Sabatini looks unders on my ratings and is a big take on. Durendal is a talented up and comer but i couldn’t take $10 for him either. The one horse that stands out on his top quality ability for mine is Hard Stride. If he is at his best today from this barrier he gets the best run of the race. He goes well at the track and he destroyed Moment of Change in a very classy display two preps back showing just how good he really can be. His best is good enough and the odds are big today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hard Stride E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 2400m – italktravel Harry White Classic
Gear Changes: Excess Knowledge – Blinkers First Time, Ethiopia – Visor Again & Blinkers Off, Renew – Visor Again.
1. Excess Knowledge: Soft as butter last start at Caulfield from the poor barrier. Much better barrier today and the pace isn’t expected to be brutal today either. Up to 2400m is the key and have to respect here.
3. Maygrove: Always shown ability and is a Group 2 winner over this distance in New Zealand, but two runs last prep to finish off the prep up in Sydney were very poor and first up found little also. I’ll take him on.
4. Ethiopia: No. Just no. Please retire.
5. Renew: Not often you see a 2400m race and say a horse may be looking for further, but that’s exactly Renew… can run well but really need 2800m+ to find best.
6. Lord Durante: Trainer is a little nuts if you look at his last three distances his run.. 1700m up to 2040m up to 1400m and now 2400m… last two runs been very close to a win also. Has ability but first time over this distance the concern. Natural leader.
7. Albonetti: Ridden more forward last start at Flemington and that did the trick, was home 400m out with a gem of a ride from Dunny. Looks like she could really go on with it this prep if they continue to ride her forward. The 2400m at Caulfield should allow her enough time to push forward and get over, but it won’t be easy.
9. Shenzhou Steeds: Consistently strong. Two wins and then just missed 0.2L 3rd last start in a very nice race. Awkward barrier today need a very good ride to get a position enough position. Big chance.
10. At First Sight: Just missed three runs back but been very flat last two starts… needs the step back to 2000m, doesn’t get that today. Happy to take him on. Hasn’t won a race since 2009 haha – but i reckon $890k in prize money keeps the owners feeling okay about it 😀
11. Turner Bayou: Couldn’t touch on last four runs.
12. Massive step up in class today from the 4th at Pakenham last start. Needs the run.
13. Black Tomahawk: Couldn’t win a BM-78 last start or previous race, so struggle to suggest him against this lot.
15. Gerontius: Not in this class.
Comments: Not the easiest race to judge today but clearly the three favourites are the standouts. I just have to take Excess Knowledge on at the price today on the last start run. Happy to back both Albonetti and Shenzhou Steeds… at least one should get the desired run and it should be good enough to beat this field.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Albonetti for 1.5 units & Shenshou Steeds for 1 unit.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Thousand Guineas Prelude
Gear Changes: Don’t Doubt Marley – Tongue Tie First Time, Payroll – Barrer Blanket Off & Winkers + Cheekers + Tongue Tie First Time.
1. Pasadena Girl: Very nice run first up but still well beaten 2nd behind Stay With Me. Barrier three today compared to 11 last start, obviously should sit further forward today than dead last, but not much further forward. Field size of 11 should get her a run 3 horses off the leader which is certainly acceptable. No issues on firm ground but best win was on soft.
2. Jameka: Very nice run last start behind Pasadena Girl and Stay With Me. Better barrier today should see her hopefully not stuck 3-wide. Back to 1400m looks ideal with her 2YO win in Group 2 company over this distance in the past. Does need to improve but looks a clear chance.
3. Sagaronne: Not the best starter so horrible barrier today doesn’t suit one bit. Got a very good run last start at MV 3 back the rail but was blocked for runs when it mattered and never got a shot at them. Might have ability but barrier suits it for mine.
4. Stay With Me: Our Guineas girl along with Miss Gunpowder, she blew them away last start at Moonee Valley with a huge win. Hayes stable are very confident today and i can understand why. Awkward barrier today will see her sit no better than midfield and will need a good ride from Dunn to get the splits at the right moments.
5. My Poppette: Had her chances first up but not disgraced when 4th to Petitis Filous down the Flemington Straight. Back up to 1400m which was her best distance last prep winning a 2YO-LR race at Flemington… but ground was soft that day.
7. Miss Gunpowder: All you can do is beat what is put infrotn of you and her win last start over in Adelaide was effortless over the 1250m. Previous run 3rd to Pettis Filous was very classy as well and she looks the right horse to be on going forward. Expect her to push to the front, lead them all the way and be very hard to run down.
8. Alaskan Rose: Sat off the speed last start at Caulfield and just shot the field down with ease. Obviously a much harder race today than that last start win, and 2nd placed Giuletta hasn’t made the form look very good i have to say. Obviously has talent but I think we have to take her on today.
9. Don’t Doubt Marley: Another who put in a strong run behind Stay With Me, has ability on all runs so far, but i’m not convinced she is better than the rest.
10. Super Cash: A follow forward run last start when 2nd to Petits Filous at Flemington. Could sit a little more handy today. Had to find her best to match these though over 1400m.
11. Payroll: Found nothing first up. Previous preps looked good but i’m willing to take her on because of the first up run.
Comments: A competitive field but once again you have two very strong chances in the favourite and 3rd favourite mapped out the back in Pasadena Girl and Stay With Me. I think Stay With Me is the horse to win the Guineas, but i couldn’t have her on top today with how the rail is suited to Miss GunPowder.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Gunpowder to win. Saver bet Stay With Me.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Caulfield Guineas Prelude
Gear Changes: Dal Cielo – Blinkers First Time, Odyssey Moon – Winkers off & Blinkers on, Manhattan Blues – Blinkers off, Dark Steel – Blinkers Fisrt Time, Moher – Blinkers First Time, Spieth – Tongue Tie First Time.
1. Dal Cielo: As you know it’s very rare that the NZ runners come over and win first up, well this is certainly a hard task. Did win a 2YO Group 1 race over in NZ so have to respect his ability, may not have been suited first up by the slow pace, well that won’t occur today! Maps to get a dream run.
2. Odyssey Moon: Every possible the last two runs and just not good enough. Step up in class again today… struggle to back him here. May need sting out to find his best.
3. Ready for Victory: How many excuses can we make for him? 1 win from 5 starts and is the favourite for the Guineas. Very awkward barrier today and will need to be the best horse in the race to win this based on how i expect the rail to be playing. Very keen to take him on again.
4. Metallic Crown: Hard to argue with the last start win, but did go down in a maiden on a Good track as a $1.30 favourite which has to be considered today. Two best runs were on a heavy and soft track… the barrier is the key disappointment for the stable making things very hard. Can’t see him getting a lead without blowing too much gas early.
5. Bon Aurum: Another horse that you would think is going forward today, but based on last start, they would be happy to take a sit if required. Proved to be a very good quality horse and lizard island won since also. Will he rate up to this level of race though? Better barrier and i’d have been keen to consider betting at the price.
6. Last Bullet: Poorly away last start at Flemington and found very little for mine. Will be pushing forward but based on first two runs i’m not sure he is high enough quality to beat all these.
7. Manhattan Blues: Two runs this prep and shown very little. Take on here.
8. Snoopy: You just have to forgive the run last start at Flemington, everything went wrong. Stable still have a good opinion of him and expect to see him bounce back today from a good barrier.
9. Mr Individual: This horse is an absolute nut case. I think barrier 4 is absolutely perfect, he will over race but have no where to go and be forced to settle. Looks very well in at the weights and has huge ability… looking for the 1400m also.
10. Dark Steel: Maiden only winner… only fair in the win and won’t get an easy lead today. Not for mine.
11. Moher: Couldn’t place as favourite last two starts at Bendigo or Sandown… no thanks.
12. Extra Choice: Two wins in a row in much easier class. Will be midfield to out the back today is an issue and this is a big step up in class. Has ability but not sure.
13. Speith: Looked decent first up and won maiden easy last start well backed. Have to consider.
14. Puritan: Very good horse, can do it against the pattern from the barrier… expect them to try sit slightly further forward today.
15. Strike Force: Very easy win last start at Geelong. Looks a good type but has to improve again to measure up.
16. Tulsa: Huge run from the back last start from a poor barrier at Flemington. Poor barrier again today.. may try for a midfield position today or has to snag all the way back. Tough but good horse. Barrier hurts chances significantly.
Comments: Wide open race as the odds suggest. Ready for Victory is a clear lay in the race if you are happy to bet that way. Dal Cielo, Snoopy and Mr Individual all appeal from the barriers while Tulsa is a star in the making.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 16
Strategy: Back both Snoppy and Dal Cielo to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m – Underwood Stakes
Gear Changes: Contributer – Cross Over Noseband First Time & Tongue Tie Off First Time, Dibayani – Blinker off Side On First Time & Bubble Cheeker off Side On First Time & Lugging Bit Off First Time & Standard Bit On First Time, Hi World – Blinkers Again & Noseroll Off First Time.
1. Fawkner: Good run and win first up over 1600m. It wasn’t a hard gut buster which is a concern for mine coming into this. To chase The Cleaner down today you will need to be at 100% to just keep on grinding him down to the line. I think he is obviously good enough to win today, I just have fitness queries 2nd up compared to a few others today on what i saw first up and know about the horse.
2. Dandino: The eye-catching run in the Makybe Diva never asked for anything the whole race and the tempo of the race was average at best which should have suited those out front as well. The track condition is against him today, but i think they will snag him back to the rail and just ride for luck. I have to say, i can see it working as well. Looks a good value price.
3. Sertorius: A hard horse to map today from the very awkward barrier. He might push forward if that happens he could sit outside mourinho. If not he will be far back or 3-wide… will need a very good run just to place.
4. The Cleaner: Ideal barrier 1 today, expect him to jump away and get a clear lead with no other horse in the race wanting a lead. The rail walked like absolute dynamite on Wednesday and he will have every possible chance to take this out today with Callow not having to push him out of the barrier and to let the horse go around at his own pace. Take him on at your own risk.
5. Mourinho: Flat run last start over the 1600m, I think you have to look to the run two back at course over 1400m when sitting just off The Cleaner all the way and getting over the otp late. He has the ability to do it again today and has a 1800m win last prep over Happy Trails on record at course and distance which is hard to dispute as top quality form. Could be value.
6. Contributer: First up well beaten over 1600m by The Cleaner. As we expected, he didn’t handle the sharp 1600m and I can’t see why today would be any different over the 1800m. He blew them away from run one onwards last prep, but this prep he has started with a blunder coming off that injury, you really have to query if he is back to his best.
7. Weary: His last few runs have been much better than the results suggest being slowly away and losing all chance of a win. Hard to trust him here today obviously but has the ability if good enough. Would prefer it wetter though.
8. Dibayani: He will continue to get better as he gets more runs under his belt. His first two runs in this prep have been solid but he has been well beaten both times by The Cleaner. Gear changes are a start but not sure it will be enough.
9. Mongolian Khan: Found his best over 2400m last prep in the ATC derby winning it with a very good ride. First up run was fair without impressing in the Makybe Diva, but he certainly wasn’t suited in any way by the slow tempo. I’m not exactly convinced the 1800m off such a brutal tempo will suit enough for him to be winning, but he is a great chance to be there in the finish.
10. Volkstok’n’barrell: Never tested last start at Flemington and in the Memsie ran to expectations. Maps a little too far back for mine on a ride which will surely go wide as well. I think he may just be a run short having not done much last start in the Diva and you have to be fit to beat The Cleaner.
11. Magicool: Not the worst run last start in the Diva. I think he is best suited by a stronger tempo and this is the testing material. Is he good enough? Don’t think so. A place at best.
12. Hi World: Two disappointing runs in a row when well backed in both also. Happy to take on again today off those two runs.
Comments: The speed map behind The Cleaner is interesting. Fawkner should most likely get 2-3 back the rails with Kongolian Khan on his outside. Mourinho and Hi World should be rolling forward while Contributer and Dibayani should be trying to settle 3-4 back on the outside also. Sertorius is a hard one to map and could push forward or stay back. I think Dandino gets a rails run and is ridden for luck and could get a dream run. The tempo of this race will be fierce and The Cleaner will have every possible chance with this gun rail today. He is a massive price here and impossible to pass up. I’m also very keen on backing Dandino at the price ridden for luck.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: The Cleaner to win. Smaller bet also on Dandino to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
Gear Changes: Absidewithme – Blinkers First Time, Bull Point – Tongue Tie First Time, Yesterday’s Song – Bubble Cheeker Near Side Off & Winkers First Time & Tongue Tie Off.
1. Lucky Hussler: Every chance first up and could only manage 4th. Bossy riding, could try and get further forward today and sit midfield. Need to ride for luck for mine to be winning and I think we just have to take him on 2nd up today.
2. Cosmic Endeavour: We were on last start and went away with a bad taste in our mouth as she was 3-wide with no cover the trip and only lost 0.6L. This week should get a spot fairly easy just off the pace, but this is another level up than those who beat her last start. Has to improve to figure in the finish.
3. Amorino: First up was a solid run 5th over the unsuitable 1200m. Goes much better over the 1400m but never placed 2nd up in past a huge concern and never got to this level in the past.
4. Leebaz: An awkward barrier today but should be able to push forward. Best last prep seen over much further and was very weak first up. Best run last prep was in WFA over 1800m, not 1400m when winning. Has ability but rare to see him pull off a win in such a race. Can’t see it.
5. Strawberry Boy: With Charmed Harmony an expected scratching, I can see him getting the rails run out front and setting his own tempo with Rich Enuff settled outside of him. First up run was solid on speed fighting to the line in the Theo Marks when Winx swooped over the top of them. Strong second up record, but based on last prep he may need the step up to 1600m to be winning a race of this quality? Rail will be the place to be.
7. Rich Enuff: Old mate wasn’t exactly suited by a brutal tempo set last start at Flemington and i’m not convinced he enjoys the straight. First up behind Bounding was a good run, but not the best you will ever see from him. He still has a fair bit of improvement to reach the heights of last prep and i couldn’t have him today with the early work required from the barrier.
8. Under The Louvre: Huge run last start at Flemington. Best runs in past have been over 1200m but gets the 1400m no issues and can measure up. I can’t see the track suiting his style of running though is the issue today.
9. Amicus: She returned with a bang winning two in a row when the market took her on at both starts. Stays at the same distance today but well up in class, so will have to improve again. Awkward barrier, if they go forward a chance she will have to try push more forward than wanted or get caught 3-wide.
10. Charmed Harmony: Questionable whether they will even run. If they do, I don’t think the horse is suited one bit to the ground profile with a Good 3 and the sun expected to me out firming it throughout the day. Expect a scratching or a non-placed run, and you know how much i respect this horse.
11. Stratum Star: Jumping from an awkward barrier today, clearly last start eye-catching run in the Memsie when just missed from a very good spot in running and ride. Very awkward barrier drawn today though and it will take a ride of the year performance to find a position close enough to the speed that isn’t in the 3-wide position (which isn’t suited today). I’m comfortable taking the horse on.
12. Disposition: Absolutely destroyed the field in the Tontonan in a very reasonably run time as well. From barrier 3, expect Oliver to ride positive early to get a rails or one off position 3-4 off the leaders to give his horse every possible chance. Looks the horse to beat and has been well backed in kind.
13. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Ran on well late last start at Moonee Valley in much easier grade. Hard to see the required improvement to place here.
14. Hopfgarten: Good horse. Never measured up to this grade in the past is the issue today. Needs to take the next step but barrier looks tough.
15. Gregers: Brave effort last start at Flemington when led all the way and continued on with it being taken in the final 50m by Churchill Dancer and Under the Louvre. Tactically, much better suited today from barrier 11 getting a sit just off the speed runners most likely 1 off the rail. Hasn’t won in more than a year is a concern considering her class and placings, but she stuck on brilliantly last start and looked ready for the 1400m with a sit.
16. Abidewithme: Well backed first up in mares grade when running well to hold out Set Square. Looks a decent type but wants further to find herself in this grade on ability and barrier is horrible today.
17. Bull Point: Clearly not good enough to win this today on everything we have seen last prep and this prep. Take him on.
18. We’re Gonna Rock: Can’t believe this horse got into the field. Take it on.
19. Petrology: Hasn’t gone close all three runs this prep. Hard to have from awkward barrier at this level.
Comments: If/When Charmed Harmony is scratched, expect the tempo to slow from very fast to medium to fast. With the way the rail should be playing today, expect on-speed runners and those being ridden for luck to be suited best. Disposition looks very hard to beat from position in running and on ratings. I couldn’t approach this race any other way than backing Disposition at the weights, course, distance and mapping. Keen and feel the only way the horse isn’t in the finish is if he is blocked for runs. Gregers is the value runner of the race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 11, 12, 15
Strategy: Disposition to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1700m – The Cup Club Handicap
Gear Changes: Jacquinot Bay – Blinkers On, He Or She – Winkers First Time, Lucky Lucky Lucky – Blindfold First Time & Barrier Blanket First Time.
1. Puccini: Very disappointing first up run over in NZ. Top weight and looks poorly in today and will be out the back.
2. Akzar: Blocked for runs first up at Flemington and was never liked in the betting. Clearly looking for much further this prep and last win was over 2400m. Best on wetter tracks recently but goes fine on Good also. Expect a much better run but not sure the swoopers are suited.
3. Kenjorwood: Very fair run last start in WFA-G2 company when 3L 4th to The Cleaner. Up to 1700m suitable and shows best 1600-2000m. Loves any surface and looks a strong tempo which will be put on today. Wide barrier so only option is to push forward and he will be doing that.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Flat run last start at Flemington, just ignore it, back up to 1700m which is a perfect distance. Last prep over 1600m won then went 0.1L 2nd in Group 3 company. First up run more than good enough to win this. Big price and great barrier.
5. Bring Something: Showed nothing only run last prep. First up today and has never placed first up in the past. Needs further.
6. Iggimacool: Had the last start race run to suit and just got a dream run and won with ease. Obviously a talented type and previous start 2nd to Magnapal looks even better on record now. Have to respect her class and good barrier… but she will certainly be further back than is ideal today.
7. Diametric: Disappointing run last start, flat id suggest. Two previous runs were fair but he will certainly be getting far back again today.
8. Don Doremo: Every chance last start. Needs further.
9. He or She: Absolutely flying according to the stable and was a very big run last start at Flemington but did a lot of work and peaked on his run late. Barrier not ideal though is the big issue, will get a long way back from there.
10. Lucky Lucky Lucky: Last start run over 3200m. First up today over 1700m… have to wonder if the distance won’t be suitable with larger targets this prep of course. Never won at distance or track.
11. Adorabeel: Had every possible chance last start at Newcastle in the Group 3 behind Forget. Hasn’t got closer than 2L all prep and not sure she is very well weighted against this lot either today. Prefer others.
12. Zebrinz: A long way back last start, expect from better barrier today to be midfield at worse. A very handy horse on it’s day.. have to improve on first three runs but seems to be going the right way up to the right distance.
13. Takenja: Respectable import. Won her first two runs by 13L and 8L over in Germany then ran 4th in France in 3F-LR before 2nd in Open grade in Germany. First up run favourite at Sandown in easier and won very well over 1400m. 1700m looks ideal and could be suited by the speed.
14. Extra Noble: Got a fairly easy time with it out the front last start at Sandown and sprinted best and won well. This looks much harder today and there is no easy lead.
Comments: Akzar, Kenjorwood, Jacquinot Bay, Iggimacool, He or She and Zebrinz stand out as the key chances here in the last of the day. Expect a very strong pace to be set out the front, but as you see in Charmed Harmony and The Cleaner races, don’t expect horses to make up huge amounts of room from the back, it’s a brutal tempo and most can’t make up the ground. For that reason, He or She and Akzar are being taken on. Even Zebrinz gets taken on from slightly worse than midfield, leaving us with three runners in Iggimacool, Jacquinot Bay and Kenjorwood. Jacquinot is the clear value at the prices and deserves to be the largest winning amount on the race, then Iggimacool and Kenjorwood and we have staked it appropriately. Looking at a $3+ return if you just back all 3 to win equal amount.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12
Strategy: 2 units Iggimacool, 1 unit Kenjorwood, 0.75 units Jacquinot Bay.
