Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 15 August 2015. Flemington last week didn’t work out very well for most punters and it was no different for us. Our Best Bet was a slight profit but it was down hill from there sadly. Back at Caulfield today, hopefully we can turn around the bad run of the past two weeks and put a handy profit onboard. Our best bet holds a lot of confidence behind it today so hopefully we can end the day with a bang. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Two Horse Play – Raposo & Clemo to win
Very keen today on backing these two runners who will be coming from the back of the field in the last of the day. Both rate significantly higher than the rest of the field. 3 units Raposo to win. 1.5 units Clemo to win.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Iggimacool to win
Suited today by increase in distance which should do the trick after running very well twice this prep over much shorter. Looks a very winnable race and the price is more than fair.
Melbourne Value Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Distant Dreams E/W
Quite keen today on this runner at large odds. Expect DD to get every chance out the front today and the main opposition map to be midfield at best giving DD an advantage to steal the race if good enough.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – ANZAC Handicap
Caravan Rolls On: Proven as a top class horse over distances in Australia. Lightly raced all things considered and last prep showed he can win over 2400m. First up over 2000m should run well but certainly have to remember best is over further and is poorly weighted giving others many kgs.
Ruscello: First up found absolutely nothing over 1600m. No surprise that he didn’t find much first up but has decent enough 2nd up form and runs well over this distance with 1 win and 4 places from 7 starts over similar. Has the ability if can find 2013 form.
Diametric: There has been a big opinion of this bloke the last two starts, been tipped up that it should have been winning both times but have avoided the horse so to speak both times from what i’ve seen. Thought his run last start had alot of merit and should be peaking 3rd up today.
At First Sight: Well backed last start at MV on a soft track surprisingly but failed to get close to the win. Back to a firmer track today could see him run much better today… but have to remember his 3 runs have been 4L, 4L and 3L off this prep.
Danchai: Last two runs have been quite poor… but that was on a soft and heavy surface. Last win was on a Good track and should get that today. Back down in the weights to 55kg and inside barrier. Would be foolish to write him off.
Our Voodoo Prince: Not won in a long time. Has run well enough this prep but struggle to suggest a win today.
Freshwater Storm: Loves Caulfield but 2000m surely not his best distance on previous form… bit did run okay two back at Flemington… can place.
Secessio: Found nothing the last two runs… but previous run was very good at course/distance. Good track should suit based on previous form… but has to improve even on that 3 back run.
Gingerboy: Thought he had every chance last start at Flemington in easier company… ran well but not good enough. Barrier and track should help his chances out the front today.
Comments: An interesting way to open the day. Surprised to see Gingerboy a clear 2nd favourite, have the horse much longer in my markets and even At First Sight doesn’t rate a $5 chance for me. Diametric rates a short priced favourite here for me while Danchai rates as the clear value in the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Diametric to win. Smaller bet Danchai.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – Legacy Handicap
Kesampour: Well beaten two runs last prep. Goes well first up, but best runs clearly 2000m+. hasn’t had a win since 2012 and top weight here.
Streets Away: Been a long time between drinks for him. Top weight with 60kg here and needs to improve on last two runs to win this. Has the ability to run well.
Pelicano: Goes okay first up. Best runs over significantly further in the past few preps and last win was over 2600m. Oliver takes the ride something to take note of.
Count of Limonade: Shown nothing two runs to date this prep… blinkers go on which could do the trick. Best runs three preps ago would measure up.
Lake Sententia: Blinkers on last start after five poor runs and was backed in betting and magically found the win. Weighted nicely again today all things considered and a Good track shouldn’t be any issue. Might be out the back from the barrier.
Iggimacool: Been backed into clear favourite after running 0.8L 6th and 0.1L 2nd both runs at course over 1200m. Step up to 1600m is expected to do the trick today in a race with just 9 runners, she should get no excuse with the pace OnPicalo is expected to set out front.
Onpicalo: Ran very well last start at Flemington and looked to be back in form. Yes, his best runs have clearly been on the softer tracks than this today, but the two back run was not bad at all at course and distance. Clear leader on paper and a smart ride could see him hard to get past if the track is playing a bias.
Sino Eagle: Ignore last start on a soft track and rate on two previous runs. Needs to improve today and find at least a length minimum to measure up. Maps well enough.
Baron Archer: Old mate is being seriously under-rated today coming into this race. His effort last start at Flemington was very strong doing alot wrong over-racing and laying in.
Comments: I agree with the punters that Iggimacool is the horse to beat. Onpicalo could certainly get away and win it from out the front if there is a good rails bias, but i don’t think it’s going to be that big a bias. Baron Archer looks to be under-rated in the market currently and may even go around at double figures.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Iggimacool to win. Smaller bet Baron Archer
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – RSL Hamlegh Springs Handicap
Distant Dreams: Outclassed last start when ridden off the speed strangely. Expect to be on speed today from positive barrier and step back to 1600m ideal compared to the 2000m last start. Best runs in past have been on a Good track and finally gets that today (still handy on a wet track). Looks a huge price especially if the rail is playing to leaders considering none of the favourites will be on speed.
Spirit of Heaven: Had her chance last start at Moonee Valley when just beaten by First Bloom from a spot just off the speed. Barrier 10 doesn’t look exactly ideal and a fair few inside have speed to keep her out. Will most likley be going back and best runs have been on the softer surfaces.
Dig a Pony: Loves to run a race and not win this prep it seems. Last two runs have both been very solid being completely honest but her best runs on previous form are clearly on softer tracks than this one today. Will get trapped the rails from barrier 1 and need a very good ride to get the win here.
Stylish Miss: Well into her prep, had to go to Adelaide last start to find a nice win in ‘harder’ company but not so sure it was. Goes well on all surfaces but best runs have been on softer the last three starts. Have to consider.
It’s One: Last three runs haven’t been good enough to measure up to this level of race today and i’m happy to take her on.
Godspiel: Good enough win last start at Sale. Horse that ran 2nd has since failed in harder company at favourite. Needs to improve lengths to beat this lot.
Magnus Slipper: Very nice win last start at Sandown but certainly didn’t have to beat a lot. New jockey on a concern for me, never like seeing such a change. Up in class here has to improve but will get a nice run today from barrier. Best seen on wetter.
Shadow of The Mist: Will be on speed with Distant Dreams today. Doesn’t exactly like to set the world alight and may just get an easy time out front. Goes well enough on good tracks but not sure she is the best horse in this race and has placed just once in this class from 8 starts previous.
Holy Cow: Didn’t handle the heavy track first up it seems. Schofield on for his first ride on the horse, she clearly showed alot of ability three preps back… has the ability to win but struggle to suggest. Barrier doesn’t help.
Domino Vitale: Seemed to have every chance last start from position in running but wasn’t good enough. Happy to take her on against these today. Only thing in her favour is the dryer track today.
Takeover: Ran a blinder last start at MV for 4th… has the ability to run well again out on speed but certainly needs to improve again to win.
Comments: The favourites will be giving Distant Dreams lengths coming into the straight and while she is top weight, i think the rail will be playing well enough to give her every chance back on the dryer track at massive double figure odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Distant Dreams E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Beveridge Williams Plate
Estonian Princess: Mixing her form around. First up ran well over 1200m then had 3 poor runs after that before just okay last start. Not sure what to make of her apart from the fact she looks poorly weighted here. Best can win.
Klishina: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington coming off an average run at Caulfield but thought that did have a bit of merit unlike last start. Up in class and hard to see last start run measuring up… but back to dryer track and on three and four back runs can go okay. Never placed 3 tries at this track and never won at class from 8 tries.
Soosa Rama: Old mate doesn’t win our of turn. Goes okay first up but never placed at this track in the past. The right grade if she is ready to run well she can win.
Our Harmony: A month between runs, she continues to run consistently well. Up from 3YOF class today though to Mares grade and back to the ideal 1100m. Only run at course was a win two back.
More Radiant: Took a few runs last prep to find her best but did record a nice win in 3YOF class. Much harder this today first up.
Peninsula Dane: Decent horse but surely she is outclassed in this grade today? 9 starts 0 wins in class and 2 starts 0 places at track.
Roll The Ignition: Hardly ever runs a bad race. Failed to measure up at top 3YO level last prep a concern. Two runs this prep on wetter tracks were nice, but this looks a step beyond from poor barrier.
Vezalay: Good type who has only won a maiden to date. Last prep went close in 3F-GP2 then wasn’t disgraced 3.5L 8th in WFA-G1 over 1200m. D Oliver takes the ride and has been training very well. Will be leading today with just 54kg. If produces best, hard to beat.
Melting Moment: FMB-70 winner two back on a Good track when wide and lost a plate as well… fast tempo. First up run this prep on soft.. can forgive slightly but really hard to fully forgive.
I’m A Flying Star: 3YO winner over in Adelaide and wasn’t disgraced the run before at Flemington behind Faction. Has ability but others preferred.
Empress O’Reilly: Showing nothing this prep… hard to have.
Comments: A tough old race. The money has come for Vezalay, but i couldn’t jump in at the price at all. Looks well unders for a horse that hasn’t won more than a maiden to date, even on form. Small lean for me in this race towards Our Harmony on the Each-Way at the price from barrier 1. Should get a charmed run and have every chance if good enough.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Our Harmony E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Vain Stakes
Stoker: Out the back last start and never a chance with the ride given. Was just a forgive run 100%. D Oliver onboard today, expect to see him ridden closer to the speed today. Rates well back into a firm track.
Demonstrate: Won quite well last start at MV. Backs up the Jalan Jalan form with the win. Weighted well enough.
Ragazzo Del Corsa: Interesting type. Ran very well as a 2YO with a Flemington straight win. Has ability.
Equinova: Every chance last start at MV but won previously over Red Alto on heavy… needs it wetter?
Top Me Up: Thought he ran well enough all things considered because last start at MV the track wasn’t suiting on pace runners. Needs to improve today on that run back to firmer ground and back to Caulfield should help.
Braccenby: Failed to place last prep even though well backed into favourite at last start. Obviously has ability but has to prove it today.
Gold Sympony: 3L 2nd to Jalan Jalan last start. This form rates well around Demonstrate obviously.
Star Planet: Just beaten 2nd to Demonstrate last start. Obviously has ability to go one better today.
Royalic: 2 runs to date for a long 10th and 8th. No thanks.
Assertive Star: Alot went wrong first prep only run. Was long odds that day either way.
Comments: Stoker on exposed form is still by far the best horse in this race. Just ignore last start and you are able to back with confidence again today in this small field. Expect the speed to be on.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Stoker E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – Lister Quezette Stakes
Thurlow: I have a huge opinion of this horse. Failed in the Blue Diamond but every other run has been very good in Group or Listed company with a 2nd or 1st. Only run in the Autumn was a close 2nd. Should be fit and ready to roll today over the 1100m distance. Only issue today is poor barrier drawn.
Pearl Star: First up today after a solid 2nd prep. 0.4L 3rd to Black Vanquish is nice form to finish off that prep coming into this. Obviously have to be top class to measure up today.
Jalan Jalan: Good run two back at Caulfield then last start at Flemington won very well down the straight on softer ground. Dryer today a concern.
Take Pride: Good runs first prep which included a Flemington win over Air Apparent. Has the ratings and ability to measure up.
Petits Filous: Looks the real deal based on all the info to date with a strong heavy win backed up with an easy as you like win last start in easier company than this. Hard to beat today.
Giulietta: Measured up well in her first prep but got injured ending the prep before the Slipper. Will measure up today.
Misty Waters: Looked a nice type last prep. Has the ability to go well today but do prefer others above her.
Miss Gunpowder: Two runs for two wins. Done all she has had to do and toughest task yet. Has ability.
Grisbi’s Run: Not sure what to make of her today. Maiden and 2YO winner, failed to run out the heavy track but was still okay two back and then last start well beaten. Can place at least.
Our Vidia: Very good win first up last prep then had breathing issues at Flemington so was a forgive. Looks a nice type from what we saw last prep. Take on trust.
Don’t Doubt Marley: Much harder race today. Beaten everything thrown at her but clearly one you may just want to take on here.
Stream Ahead: Every chance last start at MV but well beaten. Hard to see turning it around here.
Madonna Lily: Well beaten by Green Card but so were most others! Could improve from that run here.
Comments: An absolute crapshoot this race. Yes, Petits Filous looks the real deal, no question, but is $1.85 the right quote? Simply no. Jalan Jalan can’t be trusted much either at the $7 quote and Miss Gunpowder looks a bit of unders at the $7s also. Giulietta would get my money at the $12 today while Thurlow at $26s would get a bit of $$$ also.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Giulietta to win. Smaller bet Thurlow.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – P.B. Lawrence Stakes
Smokin’ Joey: Strong win last start in WFA-G3 at course over 1200m. Better suited up to 1400m also and loves it dry. Pace will be on as he wants it as well. The fit horse in the race.
The Cleaner: No disgrace last prep and personally feel 1600m is his best distance, so 1400m isn’t too short a distance either if ridden correctly. Arnold not on today a bit of a concern with Callow onboard. Has the ability but needs to be at his best to win this fresh.
Mourinho: Certainly in his career best form last prep when WFA-G2 winner x2 and WFA-G1 3rd over 1400m at course and distance. Different trainer this time in but same training process. Have to respect.
Dibayani: Ex-HK horse. Ran 2nd and third x3 in Group 1 company last prep. Best runs were clearly over further but has still shown the class to measure up at this class and distance. Trialled well and is a bleeder.. they go well first up generally.
Big Memory: Well backed all of last prep and failed to get a win. Best runs clearly over further and never won at distance in past or first up.
Taiyoo: Struggle to suggest him here first up. Will be set for further this prep.
Excess Knowledge: Certainly a good type. Won well two runs last prep especially first up from what was a massive run. Certainly needs to have improved again to win this first up at the weights. Sent here for a reason though!
Petrology: Got the match fitness coming into this today. Has to improve on last start run to win you would expect. Better suited up to 1400m but best seen over 1600-1800 last prep.
No Tricks: 3YO-LR winner over 1800m. Did run 2.5L 4th in 3Y-GP2 over in NZ… hard to suggest here.
Comments: The Cleaner is always a decent E/W bet but i feel first up over this distance he will just be a little exposed. Mourinho is in the similar boat for mine with a new trainer. Import Dibayani is also one i want to take on first up at this distance especially when the yard believes Petrology is a better chance. Excess Knowledge need to prove just how good he is today.. i believe he is good, but can’t bet around Smokin’ Joey here today on what we have seen this prep… Joey is well in at the price.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Smokin’ Joey to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Winslow Group Regal Roller Stakes
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: A long time between drinks. Has won first up previously, won at distance multiple times and twice at this track. Best runs always on Good tracks… measured up 4th 2.L in Group 1, 0.8L 3rd in Group 1 and 2.5L 4th in Group 3 last prep in his best runs. Top weight deserved here from barrier 1. Have to respect his chances. Stable thinks his a chance.
Bondeiger: Won over this distance range in the past and run well over it even at 2YO grade. Best clearly over 2000m+ though is a concern you have to believe in this grade.
Late Charge: Beat Under The Louvre last prep before running fairly in Group class. Been a long time between runs is the concern… goes well first up though.
Griante: By all reports she has continued on with her great form and is training down the yard. 1.8L 3rd last prep in WFA-G1 company… well in here today and goes well at track.
Barbed: Loves to run well without winning. Got a nice win last prep… two runs this prep showed that he has to improve today to win this. Good barrier to do so though and 3rd up should be peaking.
Platinum Rocker: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield when 2L 2nd to Smokin’ Joey in WFA-G3 company. Back to Listed but barrier 16 with C Williams onboard should see her ridden 3-wide without cover.
Sea Lord: Well outclassed here today on last few runs for mine at weights. Can place though.
Stratum Star: Sensational last two preps not missing a place in 11 runs. This distance isn’t his bet distance is an issue first run in this prep (never won first up) in Listed grade. Obviously a huge chance and has to be considered heavily. Barrier a massive issue.
Pago Rock: Ran well enough last start down the straight at Flemington for a 1L 4th to Shiraz in Group 3 company. Back to a dryer track today should be no issue… has to be considered a threat as always.
Yesterday’s Songs: Finished last prep with a Flemington win over 1400m in similar class to this. Ran well over this distance last prep… small break and back at it again.. has the ability to win.
Mr Make Believe: A strong 4th last start at Moonee Valley… best runs recently have clearly been 1000m so 1200m today will test him. Hasn’t won in a long time.
Mister Milton: Old mate just can’t find a win. He kept putting in decent runs last prep but couldn’t get close enough for it. 8 tries for 0 wins first up safe enough to take him on today. Has ability.
Inspector: Well outclassed last start at Caulfield but ran okay enough in the WFA-G3. Weighted much better today.. minor chance.
Stingray: Back to BM class last two runs has been much better suited. BIG jump again today though looks beyond him.
Sentinum: Never won first up or at track. Best runs last prep were 1400m+. Take on.
Pressing: Untapped potential. Very strong winner as a 2YO and went close in a GP1 at 2 for 4th. Hasn’t been seen for 10 months. Has been backed.
Comments: Might just be the hardest race of the day. Griante is the standout here to be while Stratum Star would have been close to top pick if a better barrier was selected. Fast ‘N’ Rocking could give this race a shake… many chances.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Griante E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1800m – Australian Defence Force Handicap
Pacific Heights: Top weight again today up to 1800m. Proved to be an ‘okay’ type but not a top class type over in the UK. Ran just well last start at Pakenham. Poor barrier. Need to see go around again.
Raposo: Well back in class today after just missing last start at Moonee Valley. No issues with 1800m when you consider the run he had. Late race at Caulfield, should be suiting swoopers… Top hope.. classy.
Diaghan: French import, showed nothing first up over 1200m and then ran on okay from the back last start over 1600m. Up to 1800m will help again today… best runs clearly in past on softer..
Epsom Hill: Another Uk import. Finished off last prep with runs over 2400m and 2800m. Did win over 2400m and run 2nd at 2000m. Expect needs the run today.
Stellarized: BM-64 grade last prep measured up… best seen over further in easier.
Aliyana: Havn’t seen her previous preps best all prep. Back to dryer surface should be what she is wanting today.. ran okay enough last start to suggest can win here.
Clemo: Well back in class today and back in distance slightly and back to dryer surface all positives. Well in at the weights all things considered on the two back win beating Refulgent who has won twice since!
Tenacitus: Running fairly this prep. Last two runs had his chances. Barrier doesn’t help things.
Lannister: Step up in class and only fairly weighted. Hard to see him turning it around on a few in this race today on previous form.
Haradafull: Consistently running well this prep even when he doesn’t win. Going through the grades, this is an extra step up… barrier helps to give every chance but a few look too good here for him. Can place.
Tilla Bell Rings: Well beaten all four runs coming into last start run… a little further forward from a positive barrier and just missed. Poor barrier doesn’t help causes today.
Steakandbearnaise: Progressed through the grades last prep. Shown some okay runs this prep but is he really this good? Been backed… i can’t see it though.
Comments: Very keen on a two-horse play here today. Clemo is the value in the race. The $9.40 currently being bet for Clemo is well over my odds on this market. I have Raposo also significantly shorter than the $3.90 on offer… very happy to back both to win an equal amount.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: 3 units Raposo to win. 1.5 units Clemo to win.
