Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Cup Day on the 17 October 2015. We didn’t have the best of starts to the Carnival on Saturday with our Best Bets breaking even and the rest of the day not going exactly to plan (our bet bet who is a leader missed the start by 5 lengths), but we bounced back on Wednesday with our two best bets at $4.6 and $3.6 (higher was available) winning. There looks to be a lot of opportunities to win today with all the bookies specials around, so do your shopping and enjoy the day. The track won’t be anywhere near as firm as last Saturday and the rail out 6m means they will be winning from everywhere. My thoughts on walking were that from about 5M out from the 500m there was a little more firmness in the ground, so it will be interesting to see if patterns develop throughout the day. I’ll be on track so make sure to follow all my tweets and photos of horses in the yard on twitter. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Two Horse Play – Stratum Star or Dibayani to win
Three key horses in this race on form and at the prices, we are very happy to be backing Stratum Star for 2 units and Dibayani for 1.15 units. Depending where you bet you are getting $2.20-$2.40 odds.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Catkins to win
Very juicy price on offer today for this classy mare. Looks well suited against this competition today and I’d be betting all the way down to $2.80 ($3.50+ being bet)
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 10 – Brook Road on the Each-Way
Very keen on Brook Road’s class today after the horse stormed home in the WFA-G1 Moir last start. Weighted very well today compared to other runners out of that race and I can’t make any excuses for the horse today if given every chance with a nice ride.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Yellowglen Plate
1. Mihalic: Sat off speed first up at course over 1200m last start and ran through the line well enough to suggest a distance increase today will be ideal. Has to improve.
2. Pearl Star: Only good run this prep was at course and distance two runs back when got the lead off an only fair tempo and still found 3 better that day. Won’t be getting the lead today either without a lot of work.
3. Air Apparent: Very poor run when leading last start at Flemington in the Edward Manifold. Not how the horse should be ridden in my humble. Will be ridden quieter today with a sit. Back to 1400m ideal. Has the ability.
4. Italy: Put up as favourite but that quickly changed. Three runs this prep and yet to place. Solid enough run last start at Rosehill 2.2L off the winners but clearly has to improve on that run to even place.
5. Andrioli: Well backed into favourtism at Bendigo last start but found one simply too good. Not the worst horse going around today but has to improve to be considered a chance.
6. Hell or Highwater: Strong maiden win first up, but last start wasn’t suited by the sit and sprint style at Moonee Valley. Looking for the step up to 1400m today… going well.
7. Purrpussful: Making her way through the grades, her win last start at Mornington wasn’t that much of a surprise in that grade. Much harder this.
8. Timely Girl: Sale maiden winner last start and it wasn’t by much. Has to find much more for this.
9. Silent Sedition: favourite yet she is still a maiden. Stormed home well last start at course over 1200m for second. Maps out the back but suited.
10. Young Amazon: Continues to run well without winning in easier grade. Not for me.
11. Strangest Dream: Not the worst run first up in maiden class from a poor barrier out the back. Can run well today.
Comments: Rough race to start the day. Can’t go past Hell or Highwater up to this distance today based on previous runs in harder company.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Hell or Highwater Each-Way
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Polytrack Gothic Stakes
1. Takedown: 4th to Exosphere last start at Randwick. Found his way to the line ‘just okay’. Step up to 1400m based on last prep x2 Group 3 wins suggest we should see improvement here.
2. Metallic Crown: Disappointing run on speed last start in the Guineas Prelude and didn’t contest the Guineas after that. Previous runs on softer ground were good enough to measure up in this class.
3. Holler: Had 6kg on the winner last start in BM-80 grade as favourite but was claimed late beaten a length. Have to improve based on last start run to rate well enough to win this.
4. Mr Individual: Flying right now. Got away with an easy kill first up when controlling the tempo and the horse settled down for once actually racing like a normal horse. Obviously has to improve to beat all of these today but he is on the right track based on the Guineas Prelude run.
5. Flying Light: Easy kill first up in maiden class. Last start in much harder class at Flemington was solid when finding the line well 2 lengths off the win. Has to improve but has shown the ability.
6. Santa Ana Lane: Well backed today after two strong wins. Went around $1.35 favourite last start and won with ease. Off the pace and should have the race run to suit out front.
7. Mahuta: Two decent maiden runs coming into last start when up to 1450m and he absolutely killed them from on speed. Won’t get an easy lead if they go for it today. Has to improve but has shown signs of being a good horse.
8. Comeback: Couldn’t win a maiden so it’s hard to suggest a win here.
Comments: A much harder race than it appears on paper. Can you really take the shorts for Santa Ana Lane? I think you have to take the horse on here. Mr Individual won’t have the race run to suit… i do think the horse is slight value at the prices but i can’t touch it. Takedown appeals the most of any runner in this race for me. His run last start behind Exosphere was a good lead in to this today up to the perfect distance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Take Down to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1000m – Caulfield Sprint
1. Ball of Muscle: Very strong run last start on speed in the Moir for a close 2nd to Buffering. Impossible to ignore that run and staying at the 1000m looks ideal. Key today is barrier outside of Rain Affair as I’d rather be off the rail than on it today.
2. Kuro: Going ‘just okay’ this prep well beaten first up in the McEwen… but he did run much better last start beaten by Sabatini and The Monstar. Clearly has to improve again today to be beating these home back over the 1000m.
3. Lumosty: G1 third over 1400m to end last prep after two very strong wins first up at Flemington down the straight over 1100m and 1200m. Didn’t beat any top class sprinters last prep though so first up today in a top class race, is she the one to beat?
4. Rain Affair: Old mate hasn’t run well for a long time, especially on dry tracks. I mean yes a 4th in Group 3 company last prep is okay, but bias helps with that. Can’t win.
5. Headwater: Thought he ran very well last start in the Moir Stakes. Has to improve to win this but think he looks over the correct odds.
6. Kinglike: Surprised and shocked by the step up in class to this today with Kinglike. Proven on speed but also off the speed last prep also… but his peak performance was on speed which for mine is an issue in this class today even at the weights. Have to say I’m happy to take him on.
7. Eclair Choice: Every chance the last two runs but not up to standard. Hard to have.
8. Last Day: Decent win first up but didn’t have to beat much that day. Must improve to even go close to a place.
Comments: Ball of Muscle sticks out in this race today. I’d be winning to take on Lumosty and Kinglike at their prices while I’d be savering Kuro.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Ball of Muscle to win. Saver bet Kuro.
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – Ethereal Stakes
1. The Grey Flash: 1400m Group 3 winner as a 2YO. Two runs this prep beaten 10L and 4.5L and there has been 0 money for the horse either run. Take on.
2. Ambience: Very strong win last start at Randwick beating a very nice type in Wudang Mountain and the time was very solid. Looks a top class horse and Should get a lovely run from the barrier.
3. Honesta: Key rival today to Ambience. Ran Speak Fondly to 0.1L off a very solid tempo. Tricky barrier today but should get a good enough position to be every possible chance. C Williams onboard.
5. Bannatyne: Well beaten last start at course over 1600m when over raced. Suited by distance but struggle to suggest in this class off what we have seen to date.
6. Alittle Loose: Easy enough maiden win last start. Much harder this.
7. Born Magic: Disappointing run last start up to the 1600m. Hard to see the 2000m getting any different a result? Two back run was okay.
8. Zarabeel: Couldn’t win a maiden which is a concern. Wanting the distance but this is a big jump.
9. Dawnie Perfect: Couldn’t win maidens all three runs this prep. Another looking for further.
10. Dawn of Hope: Good win in maiden class last start. Up in distance should be suitable today and looks a handy type.
12. Le Grand Cru: Had her chances but couldn’t get close in group races and failed to win a maiden all prep.
13. Street Spun: Never measured up in maiden class. Very happy to take on.
14. Wichita Woman: Decent enough 2nd last start at Balarat in maiden class. Poor barrier though so will be out the back again.
15. Jezzabba: Looks the on speed horse. Had every possible with a slow tempo on speed but still beaten last start in maiden company. Improvement required.
16. Meru: Struggle to suggest even a place today. Not on three runs so far.
17. Princess Aria: Yet to place in maidens!
Comments: Type of race you can’t go too hard at as something may just jump out of the ground and prove to be a Oaks type. Even so, still looks a battle of two and Ambience gets the nod.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Ambience to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 2000m – Caulfield Classic
1. Lizard Island: Hard to ignore off the last start second behind Press Statement in the Guineas. Looks to be the type suited by a step up again today.
2. Shards: Out the back in the Guineas and found little. Probably back on speed today from a better barrier.
3. Ayers Rock: Whipped home last start at Flemington finding a way to win suited by the track that day. Won at distance in the past.
4. Get The Picture: Strong second from out the back last start behind Sovereign Nation. Wanting further and gets it today.
5. Eclair Attack: Didn’t beat much last start over in Adelaide and step up in distance a big questionable. Trust trainers judgment.
6. Tivaci: Every possible chance last start but just not good enough to run down Ayers rock. Barrier suited again.
7. Alkaashef: Looks a good type in the making and will appreciate the run last start. Looks to be taking longer into his prep to peak than others and may have large improvement due today.
8. Scadden’s Run: Out the back last start at Flemington and didn’t find a great deal of effort. One to take on.
9. Etymology: Well backed favourite last start at Flemington and well beaten. Too far back? Can improve.
10. Ragnaar: Unlucky last start at Moonee Valley when well backed. Will be leading today and have every possible chance.
11. Iron Boss: Stable had a big opinion with nominations… got the maiden two runs back and last start ran well enough but others preferred based on that run and barrier.
12. Assertive Star: Two back run was as good as Etymology and ran similar last start at Flemington. Not for me.
13. Sacred Eye: Well backed here today and is expected to love the distance. Stable are keen. Will need a great ride from the barrier but i agree she is the real deal.
Comments: Lizard Island has run in 2YO, 2YO-LR, 3YO-LR and 3Y-GP1 company in the past and never missed a place. Only way i could approach this one is to take Lizard Island at the $2+ to place.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lizard Island to place.
Caulfield Race 6 – 2000m – David Jones Cup
1. Stratum Star: Strong pace on out the front last start at Caulfield and he stuck on strongly for third just beaten a nose by Disposition. No disgrace at all finishing 3rd to Lucky Hussler either, the horse is a potential star. Top weight today up to 2000m which is his absolute limit.
2. Dibayani: Misses a Caulfield Cup start so running today and this could be a bit of value. Group 1 third over in Hong Kong last prep from out the back with a fair tempo set. Close third first up behind The Cleaner and Mourinho and Ditto behind The Cleaner second up. Further back last start at Caulfield in harder… weighted well today considering. Big chance.
3. Leebaz: The ‘speed’ in the race but hasn’t led the last two starts. Won’t exactly be ‘flying’ them along. Form doesn’t appear good enough this prep.
4. Puccini: Well beaten from out the back last start in Group 1 class. Up to 2000m should sit but last win was Group 1 in NZ over the 1600m distance. Has to improve to win this on last three runs.
5. Fenway: Good win last start at Moonee Valley and up to 2000m today obviously ideal on 0.2L defeat of First Seal in a 3F-GP1 win. Will improve with the run.
6. Sadler’s Lake: Disappointing run last start in Group 1 company well beaten. Up to 2000m should suit on form but best run this prep obviously was 1400m and this is harder and dryer track.
7. Thunder Lady: Decent enough run in the Benalla Cup last start beaten by a good progressive import. Can run well but not sure i can have her on top.
8. Awesome Rock: Have to ignore he went around last start but even so the run was poor. Was it the firm track? I don’t think so. Previous two runs were solid… not sure the horse is best over this distance.
9. Velox: Stable has a large opinion of this horse but he really has to take a step up to the next level today to be winning this. I just have to take him on.
10. High Midnight: Never placed in this class from 3 runs in the past. hard to see the jump from previous two runs.
Comments: This one looks fairly straight forward from my point of view with only three runners i want to consider today with Fenway, Dibayani and Stratum Star. Fenway is a touch of unders at the price and is the only reason I won’t be backing it today. The value in the race is with Dibayani well over the odds while Stratum Star should be clear favourite also. Very happy to be on both runners.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Stratum Star to win for 2 units and Dibayani to win for 1.15 units. Total outlay of 3.15 units for a return of 7.65 units ($2.40ish odds)
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Moonga Stakes
1. Sterling City: Come over to Australia and shown very little first two runs. This is his race to show something you get the feeling. Stable suggest training at home has been good but even they have no idea what will be produced. 2 wins 3 places from 6 starts at this distance.
2. Famous Seamus: I really like this horse. I think he is flying and he was a really strong fourth behind Terravista last start at Randwick. Does have to improve here today but you know he will be coming late. Just not convinced he is best over 1400m.
3. Charlie Boy: Very disappointing flat run last start at Flemington, gone a long way out. Ran well two runs back at course and up to 1400m should be suitable, but need to see the run today and barrier is poor.
4. Vashka: Group 2 win last start at Rosehill off a very strong pace set on speed. Ran them off their feat previous run over 1500m as well. Back to 1400m obviously suits and looks weighted well enough today to be a serious chance. Hard to ignore.
5. Rock Sturdy: Well beaten last start behind Terravista. Decent type but not top class. Happy to take on even up to the 1400m.
6. Worthy Cause: Very strong win on speed last start at Flemington and they gapped the rest. Beat a very good type in Turn me Loose. Harder here but respect.
7. Chivalry: Hasn’t won in over a year. Not on last start.
8. Under The Louvre: Should have won the Group 1 last start, just had to do too much and stopped late. Absolutely suited to the tempo of this race today and will be hard to hold out. Money has come.
9. Setinum: At his best he can measure up to this class, but hasn’t shown it the last three runs.
10. Kumaon: Hasn’t won since 2013. Showed nothing first up in BM-90 grade.
11. Ulmann: Well beaten last start at Flemington and no real excuses from the spot in running either. Hard to have.
12. Cornonation Shallan: Decent type but runs better later into prep and first up was only just going okay. Others preferred.
Comments: This is Under The Louvres track. The speed will be on and there will be no excuses. Two seconds at Group 1 level at this track and this looks the ideal race to take a Group race win back to Group 3.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Under The Louvre to win. Speculation bet on Sterling City to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Tristarc Stakes
1. Amicus: Just simply ignore the horse went around last start. Won over this distance in this class two runs back. Has won at track previously.
2. Catkins: Last start run just too poor to judge on. The old ‘second up flat’ off a run that was beyond her fitness levels first up. She has beaten fields of this quality with ease in the past and she is the one to beat here today.
3. Gregers: Ran quite well down the Flemington straight two back for third in Group 2 company to Churchil Dancer and then last start not exactly disgraced tenth in a Group 1. Has ability just needs to improve.
4. Solicit: Surprised many will a win first up last prep in easier than this. Has to be respected.
5. Hazard: Is she really going well enough? Every possible chance last start at Flemington and just didn’t stay out the race. Take her on for mine.
6. Sabatini: Won last start first up over a brutal tempo. Can’t see it in this today. Obviously has talent.
7. Atlantis Dream: No luck last start but was quite poor if we are to be honest. Much better than that in the past. Consider.
8. La Passe: Surprise win at Flemington last start at huge odds. Solid barrier today to get a good spot in running.
9. Slightly Sweet: Well beaten both runs this prep by Catkins. Take on. Needs more runs.
10. Tycoon Tara: Pulled up last start at Flemington with heat stress after a on-speed run and just didn’t see it out. Has ability but is she up to this grade off that last run?
11. Girl In Flight: Showed nothing first up. Take on based on previous runs.
12. Jessy Belle: Very well in last start at Flemington and just not good enough. Certainly has the ability and will be going back from barrier.
13. Scarlet Billows: Thought the run last start at Flemington was very good for fourth. Not an on-speed horse but got the good sectionals and was game for fourth.
Comments: This is Catkins race to lose today. If she ran anywhere close to the previous runs ratings last start then she would be a $2 chance today, not the $3.50+ being bet and i’m very keen to take value for a class runner.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Catkins to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – 2400m – Caulfield Cup
The 2015 Caulfield Cup is certainly one of the most ‘open’ in recent memory. It is also one of the most unpredictable speedmap wise. Complacent is the obvious leader, but it’s almost certain that the horse will miss a run, leaving it up to another horse in the race to lead them around. There is every possibility that the international Snow Sky is that horse and if that is the case, you can expect Oliver to not push the tempo until the final 800m. I’ve mapped a medium tempo on paper and would be shocked if we got much faster than that. I’d also be shocked if they allowed a horse to get away with a slow tempo out the front, especially with the early positioning pressure you get the first 400m going into the first bend in a Caulfield Cup.
1. Protectionist (12): Not much to say about the Melbourne Cup winner of last year. He came back horribly in the Autumn and has been every worse this prep. Must improve significantly to be considered for a place. Needs 3200m.
2. Snow Sky (2): Ideal barrier drawn to sit just off the speed. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them push to lead and to control the tempo either if it’s handed up to them. Clearly, his best runs have been over the 2800+ distance in the past for mine, but he got a slower than average run Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot last prep and had the ability to sprint away from them from a positive on speed position. Won’t be suited if they go hard out front.
3. Fame Game (1): The more i watch the replays of Fame Game the more I’m convinced this horse just simply wins the Melbourne Cup with a good ride. Once the horse is given 150-200m to settle, it unleashes a massive run in all it’s replays. While you may think barrier 1 is a positive for Fame game, I’m of the opposite opinion. This is a horse you want off the rail and given time to wind up and i just don’t see that run occurring. Obviously has the ability to win, but i couldn’t dive in at the single digits from the barrier and expected position in running.
4. Our Ivanhowe (17): Clearly has the talent to win, but it will be very hard to from the barrier with his racing pattern, expected to sit out the back. Takes a long time to wind up and puts in solid sectionals. Will be finding his best run in the Melbourne Cup and expect to see him flying home here.
5. Hokko Brave (19): Working quite well since arriving in Australia. Last win was over 2400m on a Good track and i reckon he will appreciate the Australian good track. Best runs for mine are over this distance and not the Melbourne Cup distance, so this is his ‘grand final’. Barrier certainly makes it hard, but at least the horse will be off the rails. Needs a brilliant ride to pull it off.
6. Mongolian Khan (9): On replay, the last start run in the Caulfield Stakes looks even better than it actually was. Huge run and he is absolutely peaking coming into this. Obvious favourite, weighted very well and barrier is strong when you consider 3 emergencies have drawn inside.
7. Trip to Paris (5): Best runs in the past have been over much further with 3200m+ clearly this horses best runs. Very very happy to take him on here.
8. Who Shot Thebarman (21): Massive run last start in the Turnbull from out the back when he just kept finding and finding to the line. I was REALLY disappointed when i saw him draw barrier 21. They will be getting back with him, trying to sneak a few spots more forward than last start. Dismiss at your own risk.. good enough to win and flying.
9. Grand Marshal (6): Just battling currently. Not this class over 2400m. Only thing that could have him any chance is the fastest run Caulfield Cup in the past decade.
10. Royal Descent (22): Loves to run a second doesn’t this old girl! Personally feel her best distance range is closer to the 2000m than 2400m… but she has no weight on her back like last start in the Turnbull, she maps to go forward from the wide barrier and she runs well no matter the circumstances.
11. Volkstok’n’barrell (11): Weighted to win if improves back to his very best form up to the suitable 2400m distance. Awkward barrier 11 becomes a decent barrier 8 with emergencies removed and he maps as a front runner getting a nice spot. Blinkers off a key gear change for me.
12. Hauraki (14): 0.8L off Mongolian Khan in the Derby last year up in Sydney so we know he handles a tough 2400m run. Last start in the Craven was obviously suited by the tempo being put on out the front and found his way to the line strongly behind Complacent. Good enough form to suggest he can measure up but does have to improve. Won just 1 of his last 8 runs.
13. Lucia Valentina (20): Thought she was ticking over nicely when she ran home strongly first up in the Tramway, but I was a little disappointed George Main day that she didn’t make up more ground than she did. Last start in the Epsom it clearly showed that she wanted the step up in distance, and the work during the week suggests she is a better chance than the market price with blinkers off.
14. Rising Romance (2): 2nd last in the barrier draw with barrier 2 and 22 left.. who says you don’t need a bit of luck in Racing.. got the 2! Perfect barrier for this front running mare who went painfully close last year on speed in a race that didn’t have a load of tempo put into it. It looks a similar race and she will have every possible with an on speed run. Makybe Diva run was huge and last start in Turnbull 3-wide no cover was a forgive run. Looks primed and ready to fire well in at the weights.
15. Magicool (15): Thought he may have had improvement in him after an okay run in the Makybe Diva, but nope, it was just the slowly run tempo of the race. Last two runs were horrible and he shouldn’t be in the field. Take him on.
16. Gust of Wind (13): Was the Oaks win a fluke last prep from on speed? If not, why would they be going back with 51kg? Beaten 2.45L last start by Preferment in the Turnbull, she clearly wants further. Most importantly, she never got a clear run at them last start and would have at worst finished within 1L of the winner, but I reckon she could have won it. Weighted to go close… needs a good ride. Real issue for mine is the mid-week jump out where VolkStok absolutely belted the horse – but I’m to believe the horse has never been a great track worker.
17. Set Square (16): Worked very well mid-week as expected. Solid run last start for third at Flemington and continues to improve up in distance. Almost a year between wins with the last win coming in the Oaks over 2500m. Certainly going the right way and 51kg has her right in this. The wide barrier makes things tricky though and you get the feeling they may be forced to push forward.
18. Magnapal (18): Beaten by Escado in the lead up race…. not exactly the form you want to be following into this. Previous run beat The United States who has failed to fire or win since and previous race Iggimacool who failed on Wednesday. In at the minimum and needs every bit of it to run well. Not blessed with a good barrier.
19. Quest for More (8): First emergency. Best form in the past clearly over 2800-3200m and not the 2400m. Beat Max Dynamite last prep and ran second to Big Orange beating Trip To Paris over 3200m. Obviously looking for further, but off a low weight from a decent barrier you couldn’t exactly dismiss the horse if it got a run. Has more claims than quite a few others.
20. Complacent (10): Second emergency. Disappointing to see he won’t get a run as his form this prep has been stunning. Beat Kermadec and Royal Descent three runs back… ran a close 3rd to Magic Hurricane and Preferment two back and comes into this off a 2000m win. Looked the likely leader in the race and would have been able to run it to suit.
21. Dibayani (7): Third emergency. Been ticking over nicely nicely this prep with strong runs behind The Cleaner all prep. Up in distance you just know he would be rock hard fit and wanting this distance.
22. Magic Hurricane (4): Fourth emergency. Won second up in the Premier Cup… second to Preferment beating Complacent in the Hill Stakes and then last start flogged the field in a weak Metrop over this distance. Looks unlucky to miss a run.
Verdict
What I’m looking for in a horse coming into this race is an impressive last start run within 20 days of running here. I’m also looking for a horse that will be positioning off the rail and further forward than midfield. The run of Mongolian Khan coming into this race was what i wanted to see from the horse. Not only does the horse handle a strong tempo over the 2400m, but the horse has the turn of foot from an on speed position to win a quality race like this if there is a less than average tempo. Gust of Wind is a horse I have a lot of time for on it’s runs this prep. I think the horse has gone to a new level and is jumping out of the ground to get this distance. Tactically this is the type of horse I want to back as the jockey has unlimited options on where to go depending on how the horse jumps, being able to win from anywhere in the running. Snow Sky can’t be ignored from the very positive barrier with Complacent not making the field. I feel Snow Sky wants a slow to medium tempo and if that occurs over this 2400m, he will be in this finish. Who Shot Thebarman is the ultra value in the race. He savaged the line last start at Flemington and while I would prefer he had a better barrier, you know he is going to be coming and coming and coming and I think he is going better than ever. I’m not discounting Rising Romance, Hokko Brave or Volkstok’n’barrel who make my ‘next level down’ of ratings.
Top Pick: Mongolian Khan
Value Picks: Gust of Wind & Who Shot Thebarman
Top Chance
6. Mongolian Khan
16. Gust of Wind
2. Snow Sky
8. Who Shot Thebarman
High Chance
14. Rising Romance
11. Volkstok’n’barrell
5. Hokko Brave
20.(EMERGENCY) Complacent
Medium Chance
3. Fame Game
4. Our Ivanhowe
10. Royal Descent
12. Hauraki
13. Lucia Valentina
17. Set Square
22.(EMERGENCY) Magic Hurricane
Low Chance
1. Protectionist
9. Grand Marshal
19.(EMERGENCY) Quest for More
21.(EMERGENCY) Dibayani
7. Trip to Paris
No Chance
15. Magicool
18. Magnapal
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16
Caulfield Race 10 – 1100m – Alinghi Stakes
1. Afleet Esprit: Very strong win last start at Caulfield with an absolute gem of a ride. Up in class today and top weight, but looks well in. Good horse and maps just off the speed.
2. Miss Promiscuity: Horrible gate today. Missed the start at Moonee Valley over the 1000m and that was her race run. Still ran quite well for 3rd in WFA-G1 class. Back to this grade today and 58kg, looks very well in, but will need luck to get a good run.
3. I Love It: Every chance last start in the easiest WFa-G2 you will see and ran 5th of 6. Take on.
4. Fontiton: Didn’t handle the Firm track last start at Moonee Valley and was still very respectable for 2L 8th. Giving Miss Promiscuity many KGs today for 1.5L defeat.
5. Brook Road: Eye-catching run last start in the WFA-G1 Moir. Best weighted out of that race in this one today. Appeals STRONGLY.
6. The Messina Nymph: Good horse and continues to always just run well. Back to her best last start smashing a field over in Adelaide on firm track. Up in class here but maps very well if good enough.
7. Pittsburgh Flyer: Decent enough run first up 4th to Afleet Esprit when had a lesser run than the winner. Will improve today.
10. Sweet Emily: Thought she had the race last start over the 950m at Moonee Valley but found two too strong. Up in class and distance. Not for me.
11. Sea Spray: This is simply too short on everything we have seen to date. Talented type.
12. Vezalay: Old mate loves to run close and not win. Good win four back first up at course and distance in mares grade… then close close and close next three runs. Politeness form obviously strong.
13. Tuscan Sling: Came back well at Moonee Valley. Clearly a horse with talent but has to step up here to win.
14. Tycoon Peri: Not in this class mate!
Comments: I’m very keen to be backing Brook Road here at at the $5.50/$2.10 at time of writing on the each-way. Looks the best of the day on the E/W.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 12
Strategy: Brook Road on the Each-Way.
