Welcome to The Profits form guide for 14 May 2016 at Caulfield and Doomben. Last week went quite well at Flemington and around the traps with overall. Our best bet landed and our other bets went very close at nice odds, just a bit of variance going our way and it would have been a big profit on the day. We keep yoyoing around with our win/loss graph at the moment, sitting around the same unit figure for the past 4 weeks, but going over the figures and what has occurred during the week, nothing is really being done incorrectly, so we kick on with it and won’t change the way we are working, especially heading into the better racing. Hopefully we can get a good start to the day with 3 of our 4 best for the day out of the way before 2.30pm! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Doctor Care for 1.5 units $11/$2.10 Each-Way
Other Best Bets
Caulfield Race 4 – Lyuba for 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win.
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 3 – Gold Heist for 0.5 units @ $17/$4.50
Doomben Race 7 – Sacred Star for 0.5 units @ $34/$8.50
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Racing Photos Handicap
1. Doctor Care: Nice enough win last start at course and distance a few weeks back with a low weight. Well up in weight here even after claims. Will be going forward to sit just off the leaders if not leading it up. Clearly a top chance stepping back in class.
2. Angelology: 1800m win.. 3 trials then a 3340m hurdle win at Gawler… trialled since over 2800m… step back to 2000m here. Can run well but would want it wet.
3. Golden Mane: Nice enough run last start beaten 1.35L. Nicely weighted today compared to Doctor Care. Maps midfield at best.
4. Gingerboy: 1400m winner first up in a very handy class… 2nd over 1800m next start at Caulfield… 3rd not beaten very far over 2000m.. then 3300m hurdle winner followed by 3200m heavy 10 hurdle winner. Absolutely flying and a win wouldn’t be a total shock as the natural leader in the race.
5. Raw Impulse: Had the race run to suit last start at course over 1800m. Obviously a good type but he just keeps going up through the grades. Nice enough weighted here but i’m not convinced this will be ridden as fast as last start and he will need to improve onwards here to win as easy as last start.
6. Four Carat: First up run was very poor. Found nothing. Up in distance suits but last prep best was over further.
7. Commanding Time: Three runs this prep and hasn’t got within 7L of a win. Hard to suggest here.
8. Bajour: Will be ridden for luck most likely. First up run wasn’t bad at all actually. Last win was over 2400m. Needs further to find the best but going okay.
9. Spur on Gold: Strong enough win last start at Flemington over this distance off a strong tempo. Was a very strong long run. Not sure suited here at Caulfield though and needs to improve again.
10. Black Stardom: Last two starts have been well below the grade needed for this. Has to improve significantly.
Comments: Not the best race to start the day you will ever see with the odds on offer. Find a horse to beat Raw Impulse today… and that is Doctor Care. If they crawl out front, I can see Doctor Care being far too good for Raw Impulse with the way the rail walked.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Doctor Care for 1.5 units $11/$2.10 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Phil Sly Memorial Plate
1. Blue Tycoon: Well backed favourite. Only just got the win first up over in Adelaide and comes back here top of the weights. Will be pushing forward which is a positive on this early rail expectation.
2. Bringaroo: Jumped out well enough. best was seen on a wet track last prep but no issues with this today from what i’ve heard mail wise. Certainly a good type and top ability for this. Racing pattern only concern.
3. Preemptive: Looks a nice enough type on previous runs, but best run to date is 2.5L 7th at Sandown in 2YO-LR, Last prep.
4. Zelamore: Led last start and just missed when fairly green. Much harder here but will enjoy going forward and the rail.
5. New Indian Rupee: First run for stable. Looks well enough bred… but not favoured in betting.
6. Ridgway: Laing 2YO. Not the best writer onboard
7. Gimlet: Heavy track winner first up this prep over the 1000m. Won well enough. Nice on a good track in first prep also.
8. Flying Comet: Only run to date was fairly average. May needs a few more runs.
9. Intrice’s Reward: Market suggests she has very little chance today. Drifting.
10. Pedrena: Opened much longer and was backed quickly. Looks well enough bred.
11. Rock Giselle: Market only guide. Double figures.
12. Smart Stiletto: Market only guide. Hasn’t been backed.
Comments: Can’t be overly excited to be betting on this one. I think Blue Tycoon is the one to beat.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Blue Tycoon to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Arvanitis Philanthropy Plate
1. Danestroem: Always runs well. Stays at 1200m after a second last start at Sale. Best runs in past have been 1400m is the only issue… but rates well enough with 3kg claim here and goes well at track.
2. Nadeem Lass: Hasn’t won in a long time. Freshened up.. ran on okay enough for 7th last start and finished off okay. Need to improve onwards again.
3. Khutulun: First up today and not convinced she is a great price here. Clearly has ability but needs further.
4. A Lotta Love: Two runs this prep. First up was nice enough but didn’t finish off well enough. Last start dead-heat in easier class than this. Going well enough.
5. Japhils: Well backed first up and didn’t show too much even at the weights. Has to improve onwards again today.
6. Face Forward: Very poor first run in even with the run she had. Has to improve and tough to see 2nd up.
7. Shades of Bella: Hasn’t won in three preps. Last start run had every chance when 3rd on a Heavy track. Goes well on all tracks.. has to improve.
8. Elle Excite: First up since July 2015. Best runs are good enough to measure up here…
10. Sea Spray: A fair while between wins. Racing pattern always makes it hard for him. First up run wasn’t good enough to suggest here.
11. Gold Heist: Two solid enough runs this prep coming from way back. Looks very well weighted here from a good barrier. Tempo will be strong and she will get her chance.
12. Takeover: Failed to fire two runs in this prep. 1600m back to 1200m not exactly the best move into this type of class.
Comments: Look to be a few short priced runners that that aren’t genuine. The price on offer for Gold Heist looks very backable today off two very solid runs.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Gold Heist for 0.5 units @ $17/$4.50
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Comdain Handicap
1. Lyuba: Very well backed favourite today. Gone through the grades and proved to be a very good type. Beaten last start by a substantial Group 1 winner. Barrier 3, go forward, looks very much suited.
2. Andrioli: Disappointing run first up. Last start in harder company over raced and pulled up with breathing issues. Clearly her best is more than good enough to win this from past runs, but she does need everything to go right.
4. Claudia Jean: Hasn’t won since 2014. Went around 2nd favourite last start at Sandown and ran 6th when raced wide throughout and was lame after race. Her best is clearly good enough and drop back to 3YO grade is key here to improve onwards.
5. Francais: Waller runner. Second up in VIC. Ran nicely enough behind Abbey Marie and Lyuba last start. Down 3kg here is important. Issues with barrier.
6. Elegant Queen: Moe win in R-58 then BM-64 last start at Mornington. Going through the grades but this is a big step up in class again and best seen on wetter.
7. Air Apparent: Has only won a maiden in her career! Obviously best runs in past measure up here, but two back couldn’t win a CL1. Obviously better last start… 0 places from 4 starts at track.
8. Gingie: Consistent this prep going from a maiden win up to a 3FB-70 win last start. Up in weight and up in class clearly here. Has to improve onwards to place for mine.
9. Miles of Krishan: Maiden winner first up losing a plate. Only beat 5 runners. Massive step up.
10. Weather the Storm: Has her chances last start behind Gingie as favourite. Has run 4th in 3F-GP3 in the past behind Risque over 1200m. First time 1400m.
11. Espresso Lass: Maiden win last start after railing to get a win the two previous. Was well suited last start in easier grade.
12. Jocasta: Maiden win then average last start. Not for me.
13. Valentine’s Reward: Well beaten last start. Previous two runs were fair but has to improve to be placing here.
Comments: The money has come for Lyuba today and i’m in that camp as well. Weather The Storm clear 2nd pick in race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Lyuba for 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Peter Jackson Handicap
1. Volcanic Ash: Ended last prep a moral beaten and then fairly beaten over the 1600m due to the tempo set. Very best runs have been 1400m in the past and comes in fine at the weights after claims with 59kg now. Goes well at track with 3 wins from 4. Well down in grade here first up also and past results first up have been good (apart from last prep when it took a few runs). Looks well enough in.
2. So Does He: First up run found nothing. Up to 1400m and a grade where his last win came at course. Never won 2nd up and based on first up run will need a few runs in first.
3. Star Fortune: Found nothing last start at course and similar distance. Tough to see the win at the weights based on last two starts against this lot!
4. Bascule: Finished last prep well enough with two wins and a second in similar grades. Freshened up for 2 months. Goes okay first up. Barrier helps. Best on wetter in past but handles good no issues.
7. Show a Star: Always looked a nice types and hasn’t gone around longer than a $3.80 chance the past 8 runs, winning three of those. First up went around favourite again but was claimed late by Mr Pago. Similar distance range and class here. Has ability. Will be leading.
8. Airalign: Big start to finish win last start at Sandown at big odds. Shown ability in the past but that was a huge win. Could repeat effort here and win.
9. Any Dream Will Do: BM-70 winner last start in an average Bendigo race. Has to continue improving through the grades to measure up here.
10. Niminypiminy: Very well backed first up but failed to fire. Last start too far back and finished off okay. Word around is she is flying and looks well suited here if finds her best like last prep. Good barrier.
11. Shintaro: Two wins from 4 runs this prep. Beat a few nice types last start. Has to improve onwards again from barrier but going well enough.
12. Better Land: Every chance last start at the Bool and just didn’t see out the 1400m heavy trip late. Well down in weight here but up in class. 1 win from 11 runs on good tracks. Can run well you have to believe.
13. Samartested: Hasn’t won in a long time. Two back run was okay but nothing special. Horrible run last start. Three back run did alot wrong and was only 2.8L off Azkadellia. Not the worst here.
14. Thinking of You: Three runs this prep, twice as favourite, yet failed to get a win. Last start $2 favourite and ran last! Maps out the back.
15. Leonforte: McEvoy runner. First up form is fine to be competing here. Wouldn’t send him over if he couldn’t win this. Win wouldn’t shock.
17. Absolute Treasure: Outclassed here on three runs this prep.
Comments: Wide open race this one. Volcanic Ash obviously has the class, but we have to be worried about the first two runs last prep. Airalign was a huge win last start and has to be considered again today. I think Leonforte is also big odds.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Volcanic Ash. Also back smaller bets on Airalign and Leonforte.
Caulfield Race 6 – 2000m – The Jericho Cup in 2018 Handicap
1. Unbreakable: Going through the grades, found a very easy win last start at course over 1800m. Will go forward again today but suspect he sits midfield. Obvious chance.
2. Duke of Boneo: BM-64 winner last start. Big step up in class here though. Has to improve.
3. Red Alto: Ran home well enough last start off the unsuitable tempo set out front. Can improve here with more tempo on and a better barrier. Win wouldn’t shock.
4. Prince of Babylon: Good win as a maiden then failed to first next too starts. Big priced winner first up in CL1 class. This is harder.
5. Last Typhoon: BM-64 grade winner and hasn’t measured up to this grade since.
6. She’s Got Speed: Every chance last three runs and failed to get within 3.3L of a win. Barrier 15 doesn’t help her chances here today, but rider change does.
7. Bo Bardi: Bo knows. Maiden winner first up. Nice enough third last start in BM-64 grade, but has to improve on that to place or win here.
8. Defence Witness: Maiden winner two back. Had his chances last start at Pakenham. Needs another run.
9. Le Boss: Well beaten favourite two back by Prince of Babylon. Well beaten last start up in grade behind Unbreakable.
10. Star Zone: Good run two back at Flemington over the 1400m. A bit further forward last start at Bendigo up to open BM-64 grade but only managed 3rd. Clearly has to improve again even at the weights. Barrier hurts.
11. Tavi Bay: Two solid enough runs this prep going through the grades and up in distance. Maiden win was over 1600m. Barrier hurts.
12. Whoop Whoop: Went around favourite first up in maiden class and won well over 1600m. Up in distance suited on breeding.
13. Fair Isle: Hayes runner. BM-64 3rd last start over 2060m. Has to improve again though to measure up in this.
14. Lightning Bell: Did a few things wrong last start but no match for Unbreakable. Up 3kg here also without claims. Poor barrier.
15. Meru: Looking for further than this to find her very best! Hasn’t won a maiden.
16. Super Charm: Non-winner yet. Hard to have.
17. Bianajeuney: Couldn’t place in a maiden last start over 1700m.
Comments: Not an overly classy field. Unbreakable the clear horse to beat on ratings and on price. Red Alto could improve to win again today. Thought Pricnce of Babylon is the value. The same can be said for Star Zone.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 10, 14
Strategy: Unbreakable to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Yellowglen Handicap
1. Basset: Struck on strongly last start at course and distance when wider than wanted throughout. Much better weighted today. Big chance from barrier and on track today.
2. Divine Mr Artie: Improved onwards last start and got the win. Up in weight here though and handicapper may have him. Was suited last start by track.
3. Nudierudie: Won two in a row now and beat ability last start who is now favourite. Only up 1.5kg. Respect even from barrier.
4. Ability: Very average ride last start at Caulfield when on speed then last then midfield then just misses. Better ride probably just wins this today. Up to 1200m no disadvantage.
6. Chapel Road: On speed runner. Two wins in a row. This is a much step up.
7. Nitro Nick: CL1 winner two back then well beaten to finish the prep by Golden Spin when well backed. Should run well first up.
8. Tan Tat Charger: Never runs badly. Weighted well again today. Good 4th behind Divine Mr Artie and meets better at weights. Good barrier also.
9. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Best of his is good enough. Huge run last start with improvement to run 3rd behind Divine Mr Artie. has to improve onwards again though.
10. Nat’s the Boss: Low weight last start and just missed from off the speed behind Divine Mr Artie. Horrible barrier today doesn’t give many options apart from going back again.
12. Thelburg: Favourite in all three starts to date yet won just one. Horrible last start and soft track blamed. Hard to have even on ability.
13. Destiny’s Reward: Been going just okay the last two preps. Has to improve onwards again this prep to place.
14. Tango Rock: Good maiden win two back. Not the worst run from back last start but barrier means a repeat of tactics.
15. Stride Out: CL-1 3rd last start and BM-64 3rd previous run. Clearly wants further for his best.
16. Sword of Justice: Always looked a ncie enough type. Last start 1L 3rd in 3YO grade over 1400m. Back down to 1200m a big issue though. Barrier also hurts.
17. As Bad As Tyson: Not in this grade mate today!
Comments: Wide open race with many a chance today. I’m sticking with Bassett in a race where he should get more favours than last start.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
Strategy: Bassett E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Brett and Mark Wilson Sprint
1. By The Grace: Takes a few runs to find his best later into preps and over further than this. Have to take on at weights over distance today.
2. Our Nkwazi: Hasn’t shown anything two runs this prep. Need a few more runs.
3. Smackdown: Old mate has been around a while. Open class winner over 1200m in the class. First up here off one fail last prep. Good enough for this. Respect.
4. Lonrockstar: Hasn’t won in a fair while. Going well enough this prep to suggest he has a win in him, but i’m not convinced it is today on the last few runs from this barrier.
5. Taddei Tondo: Doesn’t win out of turn. Better runs are second up and beyond based on past results. Suggest needs the run.
6. Written Up: Good horse. First up form is solid… but failed to place at this track in the past from 3 starts. Just 1 win from last 14 runs makes it hard to suggest today from barrier 16.
8. Rich Jack: Pushing forward. Nice enough run 3.5L off Supido last start first up at Flemington and on previous form, you have to believe the horse will be much better 2nd up. Goes well at track and suited by track pattern. Massive chance today.
9. Belesron: Disappointing run to finish last prep. First up form is solid and goes well in this grade. Win wouldn’t shock especially from this barrier.
11. Olivier: Nice enough win first up in easier class. Has to improve today but looks well enough weighted. Barrier only issue.
12. Villopoto: Very strong first up record. Never placed in 6 attempts in similar company the issue.
13. Spreadeagled: What is his best distance? Clearly a good type and I get the feeling can run well over distance, but most likely heading onwards to 1400-1600m this prep and needs the run.
14. Pilly’s Wish: Huge drifter last start when blocked for runs when further back than expected. Barrier 1, doubt they will be sitting last today.
15. Jungle Edge: Good win at nice odds on heavy last start. Much harder here on dry.
16. Prix D’or: Average first up form. Need to see him come back and put a run on before considering on past preps.
17. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Nice run and win last start at Sale. Big step up in class.
18. Good Offa: Goes okay but outclassed here on recent form.
Comments: I’m quite keen on Rich Jack’s chances here after that very solid first up run last start down the straight. He looks well suited especially if the rail is holding up late in the day at the place to be.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 6, 8, 9, 11, 14
Strategy: Rich Jack E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Tile Importer City Timber Handicap
1. Nevis: Very nice start to finish wins two and three back, but last start at Flemington Katie got it wrong and he was gone a long way out in the straight. Must improve onwards today. Obviously better suited back at Caulfield today though.
2. Guest of Honour: His best is good enough to win this. Did a lot of work to run a fairly strong race 5th to Charmed Harmony last start. Going the right way and barrier 3 a big help.
3. Wish Come True: Showed nothing first up. Hard to have second up on previous runs. Needs further.
4. Excites Zelady: Close 3rd to Tonopah last start at Morphetville in a very nice run. Previous runs all good enough to be considered here also. Barrier only issue.
5. Sysmo: Hasn’t won in a very long time for stable. First up run was okay when well beaten by Zebulon. Has to be respected.
6. Longeron: Very poor first up run when well fancied. Hard to see the turn around 2nd up here today. Best over further.
7. Moonovermanhattan: Old mate’s not won in a very long time. First up run wasn’t terrible. Need the run here to see how he can improve. Best over 2000m+.
8. Lord Durante: Going very well this prep with a 6th to Precious Gem two back over 1400m and then last start 0.2L off Charmed Harmony off a strong tempo. Will be suited by extra 200m today on a track he goes well at off a strong tempo.
9. Petrology: Hasn’t shown anything the past two preps. Take on.
10. Freshwater Storm: Best runs probably not good enough to win this. Can’t have on first up run.
11. Refulgent: Close 3rd to Charmed Harmony last start. Up 1.5kg today. Barrier is okay but not great. Better over further.
12. Every Faith: Good win in easier grade last start at Flemington over this distance. Has to improve onwards again.
13. Minnie Downs: Doesn’t win out of turn this hard to catch mare. 9 runs at track 0 wins. Two runs to date not good enough.
14. Hollywood Bound: Up against it last start with a bad barrier and slowly away. Huge run and just missed 2nd to Hard Call. Down 5kg today and claim has him very well in.
15. Hard Call: Got the win last start at Caulfield. Poorly weighted up in class again today here.
Comments: Tough way to finish the day. Lord Durante E/W from on speed the top pick, but Hollywood Bound does look well weighted and Nevis could be the real deal… many more chances.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 11, 14
Strategy: Lord Durante E/W
Doomben Race 7 – 1200m – UBET BTC Cup
1. Delectation: WFA-G1 winner down the straight last prep at Flemington, but gone backwards this prep on runs to date. Can improve but others preferred.
2. Fell Swoop: Went around very short last start in WFA-G2 and got the win. Was a god win to be honest over some nice horses, but clearly has to improve again.
3. Stratum Star: Best runs over further but he is a Group class winner and win wouldn’t totally shock.
4. Dothraki: Old mate continues to run well in second grade Group 1s. Keeps placing. Can run well again but needs to improve again to win.
5. Sacred Star: Potentially the value runner here. Group 1 winner over in New Zealand by 4 lengths over 1200m two preps back. Ran very well in Group company over here two preps back. Last prep got a G3 win and 2L 4th in G1. Best runs on good track and maps okay.
6. Artlee: Came home well enough 3rd to Fell Swoop last start. Has to find another gear to get past Fell Swoop today.
7. Charlie Boy: Not the worst run last start at Randwick, but was never going to win on a soft track so it made it a good run. Best seen two back more than good enough to win this.
8. Malaguerra: Big disappointment last start at Randwick. Do we blame the soft track or the ride or move? Better than that run we saw. Can win.
9. Target In Sight: Never runs badly, especially in Group 3/Listed grade. Not up to this grade on what we have seen too date i’d imagine.
10. Liberation: Looked a very good type as a 3YO, but the last few runs haven’t been good enough to suggest here.
11. Japonisme: Favourite here. 1 win from 7 starts on good tracks. Lucky to hold onto the win last start with others coming at him and a few of them very unlucky to not get runs. Obviously the horse to beat on previous runs, but has to improve.
12. Counterattack: Will be heading back from the barrier today. Clearly has the sprint required to run home strongly here and win, but certainly up against it on a track where he is 3 runs for 0 places in the past.
13. Two Blue: Obviously a nice enough win two back on the soft track… but last start found one way too good in similar company. One i’ll be taking on.
14. Echo Gal: Well outclassed here first up coming off a prep where she didn’t placed in listed grade.
Comments: Fell Swoop is the horse to beat. Sacred Star is the big value in the race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Fell Swoop to win. Also back Sacred Star E/W
