Welcome to The Profits form guide for 9 January 2016 at Caulfield. While most the focus is up on the Gold Coast for one of the most over-rated race days of the year, we focus on one of the best Caulfield Cards i’ve seen in a while with some of the very best up and comers going around at great odds. Confidence is high all around and let’s get through this day with a big win! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Tashbeeh for 4 units @ $2.22 to win
This is Tashbeeh’s race to lose today. Maps perfectly in this race. Very well weighted and suited by the distance and ground conditions. Only looks two main threats at best on form.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Volcanic Ash for 3 units @ $3.20 to win
A future Group 1 horse in the making, i have a massive opinion of this horse going forward. Importantly, steps up to 1600m today and finds a very winnable race against no world beaters here.
Other Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Yellen for 2 units @ $3.70 to win
Surprised that Yellen has come up third favourite in this race. Expecting a drift to continue so should probably get higher than the listed price above if we wait a bit (I won’t record the drift on my fixed records remember – i’m happy to bet at $3.90!). Back to 1600m is key today from a very positive barrier to not having to lead. Looks a class above these on a dry surface.
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Prima for 0.25 units @ $21/$4.80 Each-Way
2nd on record to Mongolian Khan and i feel the horse is going along nicely enough to measure up to this class today. Getting the right price to find out.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1000m – Louise Chapple Plate
2YO race with no form to go off. China Dream the pick.. just because.. dart board job.
Comments: Just skip this race.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: China Dream E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – Chris Boothroyd Handicap
2. Lady Cumquat: Got her first win in a very long time last start and had to go to a much easier race than this. Stays at 1600m but best in past over further.
3. Defrost My Heart: Beaten 7.5L end of last prep into 2nd over 2400m! French import. Never won over 1600m and clearly wants further, but certainly can’t just dismiss either.
4. Anaphora: Every chance last start at curse over 1400m and just missed with 51kg to Danestroem. Down in class and up in weight. Have to respect.
5. Yellen: Didn’t get the 2000m leading last start and was still a very good run. Back to 1600m and back to a dryer track looks really ideal here. From barrier should take as it and be very hard to beat.
6. Kaniana: Weir runner. Always well backed. Gone through the grades well this prep. Has to improve again and looks a touch hard to do here.
7. Prepee: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start
Comments: I’m a big fan of Yellen and am in love with the price being bet today. Confidence in backing in a race with just 3 main chances.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Yellen for 2 units @ $3.70 to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1800m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 7
3. Tashbeeh: Further back than expected last start at Caulfield and just wasn’t suited. Maps perfectly here today. Hard to beat!
4. Master Reset: On speed last start in harder company ran it out reasonably well for 9th. Has to improve even back in this class.
5. River’s Lane: Big priced surprise winner at Flemington last prep. First two runs this prep have been more than solid enough over in Adelaide to suggest a win is possible.
6. Radical: First up this prep in much easier class found nothing from the back. Goes well second up and had a few weeks between runs. Best over slightly further but has form over similar distances. Weighted nicely.
7. Hero Master: 9 runs 0 wins in this class. Going poorly this prep.
8. Kincaple Chief: Well up in class here today after five runs this prep and yet to get a win on the board. Never placed in this class.
Comments: This is Tashbeeh’s race to lose today. Maps perfectly in a race he comes so well into at a distance that’s suitable with ground conditions perfect. Radical looks the main threat on paper.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Tashbeeh for 4 units @ $2.22 to win
Caulfield Race 4 – 1800m – Helen Cox Handicap
1. Yulong Baby: Expect to see her out the back. In harder class last start amongst her own sex she sat midfield and made light work of a few decent types. Previous run at Sandown was huge just missing. Back to 1800m well suited here.
2. Prima: 3-wide the trip last start at Echuca and stuck on strongly off a strong tempo. Has to improve on that run no doubt up to 1800m but this horse over 300m more did run Mongolian Khan to 1.8L remember and was unlucky that day. Well weighted.
3. Bullish Stock: On the way through the grades. Just got the win last start in much easier grade than this. Has to improve obviously.
5. Tempered: Consistent type going through the grades. Big step up again today and won’t have an easy speed leading today.
6. Flying Light: Looks the real deal based on all runs this prep… but finds it hard to actually get a win. Can run well again from barrier.
7. O’Lonera: Well beaten last start at Sandown coming off a strong maiden win. Improvement needed.
8. Praecereus: Maiden winner in a nice race last start and Septamore has won since. Looks a nice enough type.
9. Zandarral: Maiden winner on soft. Two back run fair but not the best. Up in distance suitable again.
Comments: Find it hard to split Flying Light and Yulong Baby at the top of the prices, but the one I can’t resist here who is WAY over the odds is Prima on the E/W.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Prima for 0.25 units @ $21/$4.80
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Jack Dunn Handicap
1. Golden Spin: Two starts for two wins this prep recording a very solid win from just off the speed at course and distance last start. Up to 60kg but gets a 2kg claim from Sadler and will be going forward from the barrier to get a decent enough spot in run. Hard to beat.
2. Chase The Horizon: Get’s a 2KG swing on Golden Spin for the last start 0.3L 2nd. Inside barrier so will have no issues getting forward and a nice spot on the rail. Certainly going the right way form wise.
3. Magna Rossa: Average time in her first up trial win but proved it was no fluke last start at Flemington when beating a good field of runners with ease. Time run was Very good also. Will be on speed again and hard to beat.
5. Pravro: BM-64 grade winner and back to 3YO grade into same sex class. Can run nicely based on that run.
6. He’s a Moral: Nice enough run 2nd in BM-64 grade last start at Sandown when just missed. No world beaters in that group though. Has to improve.
7. Geoff: Very slow maiden time. Not for mine on that run. Has to improve.
8. Runson: 2.5kg better off today against Golden Spin for 2.5L defeat last start. Should be going forward from the barrier today and no matter the decision will be well mapped in the race.
9. Land of Freedom: Maiden winner at Benalla. Not the best for mine.
Comments: Good horses win races despite weights and I expect Golden Spin to go very close again today after two wins in a row. Magna Rossa is the other horse well in here coming off a win in similar class at Flemington. Very happy to back both runners.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Magna Rossa for 1.25 units @ $3.65. Back Golden Spin for 0.75 units @ $4.40
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Timothy Rourke Handicap
1. Jacqui’s Joy: Looked an okay type over in NZ in first prep and came over here to Aus and went bang bang with a maiden then 3FB-70 win! Should be much further back today than last start in a harder and larger race, but clearly has shown more than enough ability.
2. Devilishly: Maiden only winner first up in average time. Needs to improve onwards here obviously.
3. Giggly: Led and won with ease last start at Benalla off a slowish tempo. Improvement required but looks the clear leader and may have a time out front again.
4. Majestic Lass: Strong maiden win two back at Moonee Valley over 1200m. Ran well enough down the Flemington straight for 5th behind Magna Rossa and looks progressive enough to step up here.
6. Drawn to You: Well beaten last start by Jacqui’s Joy. Need to turn form around on her. Had every chance for mine as well.
7. Miss Clooney: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close any time. Improvement required.
8. Egypt: Just got the win last start at Geelong in maiden grade. Was galloped on and lost a plate also but still got the win. Progressive type.
9. Single Note: Nice enough on speed win two back behind Giggly. Has to improve on last start here.
10. Under Fire: Market only guide. Hasn’t been backed.
11. Stylemaker: Couldn’t win maidens or place in them. Nope.
Comments: Average enough race on paper. Jacqui’s Joy the standout favourite but will have to come around the field even from barrier.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Back Jacqui’s Joy.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Ewen Stafford Handicap
1. Koroibete: Showed ability last prep when got a win up in Sydney in higher class but that was over 2000m not 1400m. Top weight and has to improve… never won first up.
2. Bel Rhythm: Finished last prep with a Win at course and distance in this class. Started this prep disappointingly if i’m honest failing to go close all three previous runs. A month and a bit between runs though and back in class here.
3. Wales: 2200m back to 1400m after a huge run 2nd to Junoob. 1.5 months between runs and best runs clearly over further than this in the past. Win would shock.
4. The New Boy: Geez is old mate back?!? He won well at Geelong four runs back then the two next runs were honestly good from on speed. Back to 1400m did the trick last start at course and distance in harder company running 3rd to Volcanic Ash and Duke of Brunswick who are both favourites in the final two races of the day. One of many pushing forward from the barrier.
5. King Buddy: Best run three back but outside of that hasn’t done much at all this prep. take him on for mine.
6. Tuff Host: Surprise winner last start in much easier at Mornington… 2000m back to 1200m first up and got a win… a bit of a shock hey! Much harder here… up to 1400m obviously suits better here today but can’t see it in this.
7. Oltre Finito: Two runs this prep and both runs were VERY poor. Take on.
8. Rose of Texas: Wet track win second up at the bool last start from on speed at huge odds. Massive step up in grade here – never won from 7 starts previously and is a 7YO now.
9. Fast Approaching: Well backed today into favourite and i’m a little shocked by the price. Yes, she ran 3.5L 2nd to Shakespearean Lass last start, but that wasn’t a huge run at all. Up in distance but really nothing justifies the price.
10. Baby Don’t Cry: Nice enough BM-70 win three back but since then failed to measure up in harder class. Failed as a short priced favourite last start with no excuses. New jockey onboard with Meech off. No thanks.
11. Winter Palace: Never won at distance in the past. Last win was over 1800m. Really need to improve to even place today in this class.
Comments: This is a disgustingly poor race. Fast Approaching is a horrible price, but I can’t find anything i’m overly confident about backing to take her on with massive confidence. I think Bel Rhythm is the value in the race on past performances.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
Strategy: Bel Rhythm E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Billie Swan Handicap
1. Mighty Like: Won three back and didn’t beat much that day at all. 1600m back to 1200m and I can’t see it at the weights.
2. Nicoscene: Only been fair this prep going around in harder class. Maps well again from barrier but has to improve on last few runs.
3. Sandhill Flash: First up run had every chance on seen at Morphetville and simply wasn’t anywhere near good enough. Back in class first run ever at Caulfield. Never won second up but never run poorly second up either. Have to at least respect here that’s for sure. Looks the leader.
4. Taddei Tondo: Came home nicely last start at Caulfield but run ended about 100m out and couldn’t catch them. Going well enough this prep but 11 runs 0 wins at this class, needs to improve for mine again and barrier isn’t great.
5. Mandla: Ran well first up this prep at Morphetville when 3rd to Flamberge but then failed to fire the last two starts. Had breathing issues last start. Obviously has top ability but yet to place at this track.
6. Kievann: Three runs this prep and ran well all three all three starts. Easy win back in class last start over in Adelaide as favourite. Respect his ability, going very well this prep. 0 places from 3 starts at Caulfield in the past only issue.
7. Duke of Brunswick: Surprisingly strong win first up at Pakenham when very well backed. Continued on last start with a strong 2nd to Volcanic Ash at course over 1400m. Back to 1200m from the ideal barrier 3, will have every possible chance.
8. Mister Milton: Missed the start last start and lost a plate. Old mate still has some decent runs in him but i’ve even lost faith this prep.
9. Herstory: Didn’t stretch out to the 1600m last prep with her best runs coming over the 1200-1400m distances. Weighted to win from an on speed position if good enough.
Comments: I’m a massive fan of Duke of Brunswick but i’m not convinced he is value with Hall onboard at the $2.80 price being bet here. Herstory is as good a horse going forward while Kievann is also flying. Sandhill Flash has the ability on past runs to win this also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick to win. Also back HerStory.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 8
1. Star Rolling: The run last start looked much better than it was for mine. It was only a fairly rated race and it took two swoopers both resuming to come over the top of the lot of them, he didn’t even place in the end. Yes he is improving and goes well at this course and distance, but at the weights I think they have the price wrong.
2. Ihtsahymn: Two runs this prep so far and failed to fire over 1200m and 1400m. Up to 1600m should suit better based on stats, but his run last start was too poor for me to suggest solid backing here. Has to improve. Barrier does help.
3. British General: Wide last start at Flemington and never really a chance. Up to 1600m and he has never won at distance or even placed. Looks a big ask in this class for mine.
4. Bass Strait: Back from WA and I have to say he did himself proud with a Group 3 win last prep and a WFA-G2 placed 2100m run last start. Best runs clearly between 1500 and 2100m but this prep the best was 2100m. Back to 1600m will need to see his very best.
5. Fast and Free: Ran home well last start from out the back and is looking for the step up to 1600m today. Will appreciate the run last start and maps very well from barrier. Crying out for rain that won’t come. Has the ability and opened $22s and is now into $8s.
6. Commanding Time: Hasn’t won for a very long time and even longer in city class. Never won at this class in the past and won just once from 14 starts at track. Showed very little first up. Best over further.
7. Sadaqa: Rather disappointing run last start at Moonee Valley if i’m honest. Raced a bit flat. Never been to Caulfield in the past is certainly an issue. Has to improve on past two runs.
8. Volcanic Ash: Three runs three wins at course. Step up to 1600m is ideal today based on lead in runs where it’s been clear they have been building him up for this. Barrier and position in running are the only issues, but from the 1600m jump there is more than enough time to get a good spot.
9. Beliveau: Not over this distance. Now a hurdles horse.
Comments: The odds suggest this is a wide open affair with four runners under $5.50 in betting, but for me, there is only one more under those odds i’m keen on and it’s the future Group 1 winning horse in Volcanic Ash. Not only is he very well weighted off 52kg coming off a very strong win at course over 1400m last start, but there isn’t any ‘star’ in this field.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Volcanic Ash for 3 units @ $3.20
