Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Guineas day on 8 October 2016. It was a long hard slog with three meeting last week over the long weekend and we ended up 9 units overall which is a great result heading towards our yearly profit goals. This looks a tough card today at Caulfield with a bunch of value around. Fingers crossed we can get the right runs and the form holds up for another successful meeting. I’ll be on course all day reporting on how the horses look so get in touch via Twitter. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Assign for 2 units @ $3.10. Howard Be Thy Name for 1.5 units @ $4.40
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 10 – Flamberge 1.25 units Each-Way @ $10/$3
Value Bets
Randwick Race 6 – Man of Choice – 1 Unit Each-Way @ $12/$3.10
Caulfield Race 3 – Selena for 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$4.10
Caulfield Race 9 – Miss Rose de Lago 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 13
Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1000m – Inglis Debutant Stakes
2YO race early on in the season where you really just shouldn’t be getting involved considering the 10 race card.
Comments: When all is said and done, in a race like this, you want to be taking a horse that has had the experience from a strong barrier. For me, that is Wait for No One.
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Wait for No One E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 2040m – Herbert Power Stakes
1. Prince of Penzance: Not suited last start in a fairly slowly run Underwood. Finished off very well two back at Flemington in the Makybe Diva though and for mine put the writing on the wall that he is simply ticking over nicely. Expect the speed to suit today but it’s certainly hard to give the field 7kg here.
2. Howard Be Thy Name: Ran a very nice race last start in the Underwood in what was simply too slowly run for his liking. Group 1 winner over 2500m for a reason and ran a strong G3 third behind Mackintosh after that which looks a strong form line heading into this. Expect strong improvement here
3. Big Memory: Thought his first up run was actually okay but he was horrible last start. Obviously better suited up to this distance and off this weight, but i’m not convinced he is a top class horse and needs to be today.
4. Assign: Ran a cracking race off a hot tempo last start when 2nd behind Almandin. Looks very well suited again today and is expected to run them around out front. Tough horse.
5. Pemberley: Been going around in significantly easier grades picking up wins in the country heading into this. Hard to have at the weights even if he is a good horse.
6. Dandy Gent: Hasn’t won this prep. Well beaten 5th behind Almandin last start at Flemington but still was a very valid run. Can run nicely and could place.
7. Master Zephyr: Every chance last start when 2nd behind Pemberley at Murtoa. Will find a better run today over further, but I struggle to suggest here.
Comments: There is no doubt that Assign is the horse to beat here. Howard Be Thy Name looks a read hot chance here stalking the speed heading towards a Caulfield Cup run. Prince of Penzance won’t be disgraced either well suited at the distance.. but the weight is a tough barrier.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Assign for 2 units @ $3.10. Howard Be Thy Name for 1.5 units @ $4.40
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Thoroughbred Club Stakes
1. Selenia: Won very well last start at Moonee Valley when ran wide during race. Time set was sound enough, but this is a step up in company once again. Awkward barrier the only negative I can find today having run well at this track in the past.
3. My Country: Fairly beaten favourite last start at Moonee Valley by Selenia from out the back. Previous start at Flemington and previous runs before that she sat much closer to the speed. Barrier doesn’t help her chances here but should be on speed.
4. Conchita: 2Y-SWP winner on Heavy at Randwick last prep. Run before and run since in 2YO class she was well beaten. Hard to have on the track surface today.
5. Modern Wonder: Ran nicely last start from an on speed position when just ran down late by Barthelona on the day. Will be pushing forward again today from a wise barrier but will need to improve onwards and upwards again today.
6. Prompt Response: Well backed first up when ran nicely 4th behind Selenia. Previous prep 0.2L off Missrock in Group 3 company. Goes well from on speed positions and finds the line well. Has to improve again though to win here.
8. Summer Glen: Maiden winner on a Heavy track. previous start 2nd to Legless Veuve and 4th in 2Y-SWp grade at previous start. Has ability but has to find an extra length or two today at least.
9. Brulee: 2YO 2nd and 2YO-LR 2nd last prep. First up won a CL3 only just. Never really shown her best on a dry track is a big issue and horror barrier.
10. In the Vanguard: Looked the goods as a 2YO when running 1L 2nd in 2F-GP2 class behind Scarlet Rain in a very reasonable time. Barrier 1 and will be on speed. Hard to beat if at her best.
11. Stop Making Sense: Out the back last start and ran home well behind Selenia getting all the right splits saving ground. Looks a nice type going forward and will need luck again today to win.
13. Moonlover: BM-64 winner from start to finish last start at Mornington. Beaten 3.8L previous start by Ameristralia isn’t the worst form honestly. Barrier does make it tough though.
14. Angharad: Godolphin runner first up. Last start best runs were over further and best run was on a softer track. Has to have trained on and improve over this distance.
15. Fillie Champagne: Maiden winner last start beating some handy types on the day. Has to improve onwards again today but wins over Piccadillies and a close 2nd to Exocet is nice enough form from barrier 5.
16. Hear the Chant: Hayes runner. 2YO-F winner… first up run blocked for runs but didn’t really find much. Hard to rate here.
Comments: In the Vanguard looks the horse to beat on form, but I couldn’t dive into the price here. Selenia appeals as the big value coming off a Hey Doc type run at The Valley.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Selena for 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$4.10
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Weekend Hussler Stakes
1. Rangipo: Struggle to understand the distance selection for old mate today. Yes, he has won voer 1600m over in NZ in Group company as a 2YO but his very best runs were clearly 2000m+ finishing with a Group 1 win over 2400m. Last two runs shown absolutely nothing to suggest a turn around in form here.
2. Charlie Boy: WFA-G1 3rd to Music Magnate over 1350m last prep. First up was very soft to the line which is a big concern for me. 5 runs for 1 placing at this track doesn’t give a lot of confidence either.
3. Chetwood: Godolphin progressive type htat has gone from strength to strength this prep. Was very well backed against some handy types last start in Group 3 company over 1350 and led start to finish for a very good win with Le Romain in 2nd. Looks the clear leader on paper.
4. Tucanchoo: Hawkes runner that has won 4 of his last 5 starts but they were over 1600m+ with the best over 2000m. Goes okay first up and has an okay record at this distance. Big effort required first up. Best seen on wetter.
5. Badawiya: Every possible chance in Group 1 company off 52kg last start and was fairly good in the end finding the line well from the back beaten 2.6L. Only up 2kg today back to Listed grade from a Group 1 at this course and distance. Could sit further forward due to the barrier today and will need luck.
6. Mabeel: NZ import first up today. Won both first up runs in the past and won twice at this distance, with Group 3 win over 1600m and Group 1 5th over 1060m on record. Good barrier to get a nice run today and looks well sutied to run well here.
7. Rough Justice: Old mate ran a cracking race last start over the 1400m behind He’s Our Rokkii at course and distance… beaten 3.6L but it was still a very good run. Not sure there is much imporvement to come today, but consistency will have him running well again and in with a chance.
8. Sistine Demon: Blinkers on. Hasn’t won since 2014. Two runs this prep were rubbish. Have to take on again even with a few weeks between runs.
9. Well Sprung: Huge run two back at course over 1200m when just missed behind Keen Array. Showed nothing last start when well beaten behind Badawiya. Has to improve but has the ability.. just not convinced at the distance.
10. Rageese: First up ran home only fairly behind Hellbent beaten 6 lengths. Much better suited up to 1400m but from barrier will be getting back and need to be a very good thing to run these down today. 0 places from 3 starts at track.
11. Coldstone: Gelded. Open Class french winner. Never placed first up a concern and 1400m looks a bit short first up.
12. Un de Sceaux: Some good wins last prep but two runs this prep well below this level.
Comments: Chetwood and Badawiya are the clear top picks in the race while Rough Justice is a massive value runner here based on what we have seen this prep. Lean towards Chetwood and Rough Justice as the play at the right odds. Badawiya hard to take from the barrier at the current odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Chetwood and Rough Justice
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Cape Grim Beef Stakes
1. Miss Gunpowder: Fairly beaten last start at Caulfield when just not good enough late. Back to the 1200m looks a very smart move as she died on her run over that 1400m distance last start. Back to a dryer surface looks a positive also. Maps awkwardly from the gate but with a good run would be well in here.
2. Secret Agenda: Well backed firs tup at course and distance here and got the chocolates very easy in the end. The wetter the better for her so I think you have to judge her harshly back to a Good 3 surface today.
3. Silent Sedition: Won 3 of her last 5 runs but mainly all over further apart from a maiden win. First up today and tough to see a win against this lot over this distance.
4. Sheidel: A little disappointing last start when got nice sectionals from start to finish and the only horse that was able to sprint past was from last. J Mac takes the ride today and looks the clear leader from the barrier. Will be fitter for the run and has a very good third up record. Back in class today and equal weight.
5. Exclusive Lass: 4-wide the trip last start at course and distance. Settled well with the speed not overly strong but did find a lot hitting the line well. Can run well here.
7. A Lotta Love: Every chance last start at Caulfield and just not going as well as four and five runs back. Back to a dryer track should help but won’t be enough to turn it around here today for mine.
8. Mossin’ Around: A much improved run last start in easier grade when 2nd to Super Cash. Can improve onwards again today from a good barrier and nice weight.
9. Jalan Jalan: Horrible run last start at Caulfield when very well backed first up. Was vetted behind the barriers and ran to suit. nice barrier again today.
10. Ravi: Very strong first up run 2nd behind Heaven’s Above. Only missed a place ever at her first run.
11. Frill Seeking: Down from Sydney. Ran nice enough in similar grade from on speed, but i’m not convinced she is good enough to beat all these.
12. Not a Happy Camper: Big win last start at Pakenham with top weight well down in class smashing Lake Como. Previous runs in city were good.. but never won at this grade in the past.
13. Lake Como: Well beaten two back at Pakenham by Not A Happy Camper.. then last start won very well off a crawl at MV. Has to improve again.
14. Ameristralia: Strong win last start at Caulfield beating a very nice class of field. Can go onwards and upwards again. Respect.
Comments: I have to take on Secret Agenda today at the prices. I just can’t have it back on a dryer track. I also can’t have Ravi from that barrier. Sheidel and Ameristralia are the two favourites that appeal. Miss GUnpowder looks a big price back to this distance today and Exclusive Lass looks to get a better ride today and should run well at odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sheidel to win. Also back Miss Gunpowder & Exclusive Lass.
Caulfield Race 6 – 2000m – Ladbrokes Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: Most likely leads the field around over the 2000m and will get the tempo he wants. Based on previous runs there is no way he out sprints Winx late so it will be interesting to see what tactics they adopt. I think they really want a strong Prince of Penzance Moonee Valley Cup type hitout and want to test what is really under the motor.. but not sure they will do it.
2. He or She: I keep going over the information and if He or She runs up to previous best sectionals, He or She has a better turn of foot than Black Heart Bart, especially if its made into a 600-800m sprint. Winx is well up on both of them. Most importantly, she is still suited by a hard fast run also!
3. Winx: Will sit back and have the race dictated to her. Obviously the horse to beat.
Comments: Winx should obviously be winning this, but there is no way you could take the price. I like the idea of the Exacta Winx/He or She with the odds it will pay.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Exacta Winx/He Or She.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1600m – Schweppes Thousand Guineas
1. Whispering Brook: Group 2 and Group 3 winner from over in WA last prep. First up just missed in a very strongly run race at Moonee Valley. Last start was ridden incorrectly throughout on a day when leaders weren’t suited either. Maps as the clear leader on paper and to find her very best is expected to push the field along at a reasonable tempo.
2. Missrock: Good run first up at Flemington and then up to 1400m was a strong luckless run behind Legless Veuve. Barrier will see her sit back in the back and run on well late. Stable are confident of a big run. Clearly suited here.
3. Global Glamour: Looked a nice enough type in the G2 behind Foxplay two back and then won from the start in G1 company over 1600m last Saturday in what looked a step below the very best if you ask me. Expect her to go forward and push the tempo again today due to that run. Has been very well backed
4. Foxplay: Big win first up on the Heavy in the G2 Furious Stakes… but last start was the very big win when flew home after having no luck the entire straight. Maps very well from the barrier but there is alwaysa chance similar happens here. Certainly deserves to be favourite on the class of that win, but it’s still unknown what her exact peak really is.
5. I Am a Star: Last start at Caulfield from a wide barrier went back and hooked over to the rails. Never really got clear running in the straight and while she saved a load of ground, she had every right to finish in the finish with the winner. Better barrier today should see her closer to the speed today.
6. La Luna Rossa: Nice enough barrier. Will be going back to midfield if not further today from a good barrier. Group 1 winner on heavy back home over 1400m. First up just beaten 2nd in Listed grade and then last start in G2 grade ran home well for 2nd behind Legless Veuve. Clearly a big chance with better luck in running and has to be considered a top chance.
7. Samara Dancer: Two runs this prep and best run was two back at Flemington. A little slow last start at Caulfield and went back to 2nd last. Ridden for luck but didn’t make up much groud at all IMO. One to take one.
8. Legless Veuve: Huge win last start at Caulfield when suited on speed off a slowish tempo. Certainly has top class ability but did get an easy spot on the speed last start and others were more professional to the line. Nice barrier again though.
9. Sword of Light: Continues to run well without winning or looking a winning chance. Placed last start at Caulfield with a dream run just off the winners and has the turn of foot that was required on the day along with getting a run behind the winner all the way down the straight that helps. Not convinced at this distance.
10. Leotie: Her class got her the win last start on a Heavy 10 at Bendigo over 1400m, showing to me that there is little to no issues with the horse over this distance today. Good run 2nd three back in G3 company but still found one too good. Horror barrier will see her out the back running on late. I’m not convinced she is top class.
11. Sebring Dream: Jumped well last start from a good barrier in the prelude. Will have a much harder time today finding a good spot in running. Blinkers first time. Got significantly out sprintered in the final 200m and may be wanting a stronger test. Did look to go through the line well suggesting she needs further.
12. Harlow Gold: Strong maiden win two runs back at Pakenham. Last start at Caulfield won very well from off the speed on a soft track with the speed on. Certainly looking for further than this today on everything we know, but i’d be expecting another strong run with speed on.
13. Smart Amelia: Well beaten last start at Rosehill. Previous run on Heavy didn’t find much either. Goes back from barrier. Hard to suggest for even a place.
14. Peeking Duck: Given a horrible ride last start at Flemington and was simply a forgive run. Two back when ridden midfield with cover was held up the final 200m when looked to be flying. Newitt takes the ride today and should sit midfield from the awkward barrier. The value of the race based on the unknown potential and i’m actually taking the last start gut buster as the piece of work that pushes her to have a fitness edge here.
15. Fromparis WithLove: Horror barrier. Will be going back to last. Well beaten all five starts this prep including last start over 1600m in easier company. Hard to suggest a place.
Top Chances
Whispering Brook
La Luna Rossa
Foxplay
High Chances
Global Glamour
Missrock
Harlow Gold
Medium Chances
I Am a Star
Sebring Dream
Peeking Duck
Legless Veuve
Leotie
Low Chances
Sword of Light
Smara Dancer
Smart Amelia
Fromparis WithLove
Comments: The two standouts on my numbers are Whispering Brook and La Luna Rossa at the odds. There are several chances in this race that can win today and you have to bet around the prices. Peeking Duck is the clear value in the race based on potential
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 14
Strategy: Whispering Brook and La Luna Rossa. Also a small bet on Peeking Duck.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – Caulfield Guineas
1. Sacred Elixir: Huge win last start at course over 1400m when sat off the speed an finished off strongly. Another very solid barrier today and will be hard to hold out up to 1600m. Improvement to come.. and has to show it to match the Sydney form.
2. Impending: Big win last start in the G2 Stan Fox at Rosehill when stayed off the speed in a 6 horse race and ran straight past Divine Prophet when it counted. Poorer barrier today will see him further back than his rivals today and will need a gem of a ride to get the chocolates. Top rated coming into this today.
3. Good Standing: Ran very well last start at Rosehill in the Stan Fox behind Impending and Divine Prophet from just infront of them. Looks to be able to push forward and get a well forward spot from a poor barrier today and should have lengths on the ‘main rivals’ heading into the straight. Every chance here.
4. Divine Prophet: If you have been anywhere near the Hawkes the past month the only words you have heard out of their mouths is Divine Prophet. They believe this horse is the real deal and the ratings suggest he is up to the mark. Last start he got to the front too early and looked exposed. Barrier 1 while not ideal on paper, should be more than suitable for him to sit midfield or slightly worse and finish off over the top of runners late.
5. Hey Doc: The ‘dark horse’ of the race. While we may try and claim him as a Victorian due to the form lines coming out of our races, he is fair and square a South Australian horse. Proved his class the past two runs when wide no cover winning well over Rocekteer off a solid speed at Moonee Valley and then winning the Stutt Stakes in impressive fashion. Will need to do a lot of early work today to get over from the poor barrier. Clearly a player.
6. Saracino: Ticking over nicely heading into this run today winning a strongly run 1200m at Flemington off a G2 1200m win in New Zealand and following it up with a 5th over 1400m at Caulfield when ridden against his normal pattern. Never got clear running until the final 200m of the race but was taken into it by the winner. Much better suited on the speed which will occur today.
7. Seaburge: Ran a solid race last start over the 1400m at Caulfield when much wider than Sacred Elixir. Clear running all the way and just kept finding to the line. Run looked to end the final 200m is certainly an issue up in grade and in distance again, but clearly has ability.
8. Revolving Door: Change of tactics last start worked the treat running a very solid 2nd when jumped very well and kept the forward position. Untouched until the final 350m, hit the front and was just claimed late. Thought he had every possible chance and i’m not sure there is further improvement that is needed to win this.
9. Wazzenme: Continues to run huge races without drawing a barrier which has seen him get furthe rback than they would hope. Finally drawn a positive barrier when it counts and i’d expect him to be just off the speed in a very positive position. Last start was back last at one stage around 1000m to go and slowly worked his way forward with cover at the appropriate times. Rode for luck and took a while to get going failing to get a run until the final 200m when finished off strongly claiming ground off the winner. Big chance at odds.
10. Evacuation: Well backed Waterhouse runner and the money has come again. Was very well backed 2nd favourite last start in the prelude when ridden 3-wide no cover throughout.. getting 5 off going around the turn hard ridden. Kept on from the 300m suggesting the distance today will obviously suit… but clearly does need to have gone to the next level here and not suffer from that gut buster.
11. Land of Plenty: Horrible barrier today. Expect he will be going back in the run from the barrier with Newitt onboard. Let go when it counted last start behind Hey Doc and didn’t have the turn of foot needed. Did finish off nicely, but not sure he is good enough to land this today.
12. Kaching: Very hard horse to place today. His two runs this prep have clearly shown the horse has ability and we have to believe he will be fit 3rd up over the 1600m distance again. Unsure if he has the gate speed to get a handy spot today from a better barrier but he could very well get a position midfield giving him more more of a chance today. Gave Hey Doc 2 lengths around the bend last start and didn’t exactly respond laying in at critical moments.. this really looks a horse that finds his best in the straight, but I feel is a level below the very best here.
13. So Si Bon: Another terrible barrier drawn for this Laing talent. He has shown ability in the past and from near last in running lasts tart in the prelude ran very well for 7th. Looked to be hard riden in the straight and took a while to respond slightly held up for runs. Needs to find more with the distance today.
14. Barbie’s Boy: Last start ran 3rd at Sale in a BM-64 grade race. Maiden only winner that looks well out of place here.
Top Chances
Divine Prophet
Good Standing
Sacred Elixir
Hey Doc
High Chances
Impending
Saracino
Wazzenme
Evacuation
Medium Chances
Seaburge
Revolving Door
Land of Plenty
Kaching
Low Chances
So Si Bon
Barbie’s Boy
Comments: Just like the previous race, there are several key chances based on ratings. Divine Prophet is the top pick while Hey Doc is a big chance based on the previous runs heading into this. Wazzenme is the clear value.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Divine Prophet and Hey Doc. Also have a small bet on Wazzenme.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Toorak Handicap
1. Awesome Rock: Fairly beaten last start at Caulfield in a slower than average run race. Looking for a rock hard tempo today to have a chance and most likely does get that.
3. Bon Aurum: Group 1 winner last start over 1400m at course holding off Voodoo Lad. Up 4kg today for the win and maps a similar position today.
4. He’s Our Rokkii: Two runs for two wins this prep over the 1400m. Even better suited up to the 1600m today. Dryer track is a slight disadvantage on the form it has to be said, but even so, it’s just knit picking. Stable have him as their best of the day expecting a very strong run. Barrier is a bit concerning to where he gets in running.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Awkward wide gate today but will be pushing on for a forward position once again today after a 4th in WFA-G1 last start behind Black Heart Bart. Just missed a place that day. 3kg better off against Awesome Rock and beat him home last start.
6. Royal Rapture: Won five in a row taking care of some decent types in recent runs. Huge step up in class again here and not exactly very well weighted in my opinion, but he has the ability to be competitive.
7. Counterattack: Wide and fell out last last start in Group 1 company behind BOn Aurum as favourite. Nice enough 2nd first up behind Mackintosh. Probably a good price with a better weight today but needs to prove his quality.
8. Miss Rose de Lago: Backing up after a very poor ride at Moonee Valley by Oliver out the front… it was the worst ride of the night and she still managed 3rd off a tempo that didn’t suit her style one bit. She ran 1:38.9 for the day… her peak run at that same distance at that track was a 1:35.1. Katie Mallyon is a jockey I will trust till the cows come home at this track on a front runner.. she won’t be left wondering and will have our girl running along as she should. Well in at the weights also today. Loves it DRY.
9. Cosmic Cube: Well beaten all three starts this prep. Looks one to take on.
10. Thames Court: Continues to run well without winning this prep. 1.3L 4th in Group 1 behind Bon Aurum. Better weighted today but equally as good barrier and has to find more up to 1600m to win.
11. Great Esteem: Horrible last start at Randwick with terrible tactics when didn’t try and break their hearts or do anything different unlike the two previous runs at course and distance. Can push forward and lead them along at a nice tempo.
12. Moral Victory: Nice enough win last start at Rosehill holding of Caped Crusader, but i’m not one bit convinced that the race was a high quality race at all. Take on.
13. Tivaci: Ran a nice race 2.8L 6th behind Bon Aurum last start in Group 1 company. Suited up in distance again today and should be peaking. Nice weight.
Comments: There’s no way for me to bet here without being on Miss Rose de Lago. Her peak rating is more than good enough to win this from the weight and this will be her race to lose from out the front. Most importantly, she finally finds a genuine Good 3 track which is where she PEAKS.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 13
Strategy: Miss Rose de Lago 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
Caulfield Race 10 – 1100m – Schillaci Stakes
1. Flamberge: Last four first up runs have been two Group 1 wins and two seconds behind Chautauqua suggesting the horse goes best first up. Won three times previously at the track and his best runs have been over this distance range in the past. Will be on speed and hard to hold out.
2. Turn Me Loose: Never won fist up in the past. Best runs are over further distances than this. Needs the run today but is certainly going very well right now with a strong spring target in mind.
3. Japonisme: Two runs this prep for a well beaten 6th and well beaten 10th. Trialled well since but it’s a struggle to back him here with any confidence especially from the wide gate.
4. Hucklebuck: Ran well with a big weight first up when 4th behind Keen Array and Well Sprung. Will be ridden for a bit of luck from the inside barrier… i’m just not 100% sure the step back to 1100m will find the very best out of him as I think he is heading towards a 1600m run at Flemington.
5. Fell Swoop: 2nd behind Chautauqua in the TJ Smith last year before going onto a G2 victory at Doomben. Well beaten in the BTC Cup when 3 wide no cover and not suited up to 1350m in the Doomben 10,000. Beaten 0.1L by Flamberge last time they met in the Oakleigh Plate first up and there is a 5kg turn around here today.
6. Dothraki: Ran very well first up in G2 company behind Takedown for a 0.4L 4th when looked like he might get the win on the day. Stays at the distance but up into harder company. Has to improve lengths again.
7. Malaguerra: Strange change of stables honestly and still yet to prove his top class. Yes, he won the G1 BTC Cup, but he only beat Dothraki that day. Awkward barrier and will need a very good ride to take out the race today. Not sure his very best is first up either.
8. Furnaces: Blinkers first time. Lazy 7.3 length trial win over 800m heading into this to get him in the mood. First up run was a very nice run 2nd to Wild Rain but was fairly beaten. Up to 1100m today should find improvement, but he does have to improve onwards today to beat all these. Good barrier.
9. The Monstar: Blinkers again. Handicap winner but that is his class range. Not good enough for this lot.
10. O’malley: Every chance finishing off well again last start at Moonee Valley but that seems to be the norm for this horse.. runs well and doesn’t win. Up in class again.
11. Ocean Embers: G3 winner last start suited by a slow tempo and sprinted home late. Huge jump up in class and big questions over just how good she really is. Very happy to take her on.
12. Star Turn: Obviously well weighted today. Bad barrier and C Williams onboard so every chance he gets caught 3-wide no cover but may just be good enough to still over come it. The horse to beat based on runs behind Astern and infront of Impending.
Comments: A tough way to finish the day with a very competitive race. Flamberge is the clear value in the race based on all previous stats. Furnaces looks a nice price to run a solid race today also. I couldn’t fall into the price of Star Turn here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12
Strategy: Flamberge 1.25 units Each-Way @ $10/$3
