Welcome to The Profits form guide for 6 February 2016 at Caulfield. Not the easiest card you will ever since today. Two clear standout picks with two others I am happy to play for lesser stakes. Outside of those 4, I’m VERY happy to sit out the rest of the day.. keep an eye closely on the 2YO races and bet accordingly into Blue Diamond future markets. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caufield Race 2 – Second Bullet for 3 units @ $2.90. Danjeu for 1.9 units @ $4.60
Not going to retire on bagging the win here playing the two favourites, but this is our most confident bet of the day putting down 4.9 units looking for a return of 8.7 units (odds around $1.80). Both these runners are proven at the distance, very well weighted and map nicely also here. The clear standouts in a race.
Next Best Bet
Caufield Race 1 – Tuff Host for 2 units @ $3.50
Very impressive last start run off a strong tempo. Up in distance suitable… won’t need them to go as hard this time around, rock hard fit, ready to win again.
Other Bet
Caufield Race 7 – Reldas for 1.25 units @ $5.00 to win.
Loads of speed in the race and Reldas will get the last shot at them. Good form lines heading into this.
Best Value Bet
Caufield Race 3 – See What I Bring for 0.75 units @ $15/$4.20
Simply over the odds today coming off strong runs. Under-rated due to stable.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
1. Commanding Time: Much improved run last start at course over 1700m. Up to 2000m certainly suitable today and maps for a charmed run on speed from the barrier.
2. Jileks Spur: needs much further to find his very best. Has won 5 times in the past over this distance so don’t be surprised if he measures up at big odds here.
3. Golden Mane: Disappointing last two runs. Won very well the previous start at MV. Hard to make a lot of the horses form.
4. Mr Journeyman: Well back in class today after two very solid runs heading into this. Goes well at the distance and should run well.
5. Tuff Host: The pace was on last start at Moonee Valley when he ran down a very talented horse in Volcanic Ash. It was a standout performance and one I won’t forget anytime soon. This is a serious horse going places.
6. Schockemohle: Improved run last start at MV but this horse is very erratic form wise. Not one I’m keen on backing.
7. Tucanchoo: A very long last at MV last start. Two previous runs don’t inspire confidence either. Not for me.
8. Prima: On speed last start in easier company and a low weight at MV. Had every chance from the sitting position. Really needed to lead. Will do that today but has to improve.
9. Forever True: Every chance the last two starts with the runs. Has ability but not in this.
10. Ultimate Doom: Good win on the wet last start at Cranny. Not here on the ratings for mine.
Comments: Turf Hero a clear standout on form, ratings and even speed mapping.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Turf Hero for 2 units @ $3.50
Caulfield Race 2
2. Vilanova: Always had ability and he was a surprising outsider winner two back at Randwick on a strange day of racing. Well beaten last start the very next run on a wetter surface. Dry is what is wanted. Does have to improve again due to weight here.
3. Second Bullet: Unlucky 2nd last start at Flemington when they ran it along at a pace to suit the winner. Three leaders here today and it looks like they speed will be on and the tempo will certainly be genuine for him. Big chance.
4. Black Jag: Will be on speed setting the pace at a strong clip if no one else takes it up. Must punch through from B1. Not convinced on form that he is the one to beat.
5. Danjeu: Poorly weighted last start at Flemington but step back in distance helped his chances and he just missed. Much better suited here compared to Lucques and will be better suited also by the shorter straight. Good barrier.
7. Lucques: Very good win last start at Flemington over the 2500m at good odds. Stays at distance but from barrier maps further back in run today. Giving weight to a few and D Oliver jumps off for a good reason.
8. Ring Da Belle: Continues to be poorly placed for mine. Much harder this race than last few starts.
9. All I Survey: Beat a bunch of second raters last start when very well backed at Caulfield. Have to improve to place.
10. Purple Smile: On speed runner. Well beaten last three runs. No thanks.
11. Use The Lot: Continues to run well this prep from on speed. Can expect him to run well again but at the weights has to find lengths.
Comments: Two clear standouts here for me in Second Bullet and Danjeu. Very keen to back both for a result.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Second Bullet for 3 units @ $2.90. Danjeu for 1.9 units @ $4.60.
Caulfield Race 3
1. Word of Mouth: Breathing issues first up a big concern. Up to 1600m today but even this is too short for him.
2. Prix D’Or: Ran wide last start at Flemington. Was a nice enough run all things considered. Has to find his best even back in this class from the barrier. Has the ability.
3. Murphy’s Delight: First up and back to what is probably not his best distance range. Hard to have in this class.
4. Distant Rock: Had his chanes last start at Sandown and just simply beaten by a better horse in Prix D’or. Better weighted today but has to improve to beat the rest here.
5. See What I Bring: Going well enough through the grades this prep with 3 wins from 4 starts and the loss was a forgive due to the track condition. Can win and maps well.
7. Hero Master: Nice enough return to form last start when ran well at Flemington. Can run well here also.
8. Pure Karma: Easy win last start at Geelong. Looks a nice type going forward.
9. Adirondack: Well up in class here off an only average win. Has to improve.
11. One Inch Punch: Well backed all three runs this prep and failed to win. Has to improve again. Barrier is awkward.
12. Rose of Texas: Big win at the bool two back then well beaten last start in town. Hard to have.
14. Grande Rosso: Did a bit wrong last start behind Here to There at Sale. Strong 1600m win the previous start.
Comments: Open race on paper. See What I Bring looks the runner with the most upside at odds and is clearly the value of the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: See What I Bring for 0.75 units @ $15/$4.20
Caulfield Race 4
1. Extreme Choice: Looked the real deal the only run to date when up at Randwick. From on speed, they flew home in 56.8 and he won very well. Could be very good.
2. Highland Beat: Strong runs this prep but certainly disappointed up at Gold Coast finding very little. Clearly has to improve to measure up here.
3. Dam Ready: Market only guide first up runner – well bred. Market says unwanted.
4. Gratwick: Unwanted in the market. Moody runner. Only fairly bred for mine but could surprise. Barriers decent enough.
6. Simply Invincible: Constant drift since markets opened. Only a fair trial but looks professional enough to run well.
7. Pearl Congenial: $2 favourite last start and was scratched to run in this. Clearly stable have an opinion of him and he looks the one to challenge the favourite on exposed form.
8. Mandee: Very well backed into second favourite. Unseen runner and the fancied of the two Moody runners here.
9. Om Nom: Not a lot of money for her. Unseen type.
Comments: Extreme Choice is probably still value at the $1.60 on what we saw in his only run to date. That being said, I’m not jumping into the price and I couldn’t tip around him.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Extreme Choice to win.
Caulfield Race 5
1. Dalradian: Awkward barrier today. Won nicely in first prep. Not the worst run first up but does have to improve on what we saw there.
2. Valliano: First prep ran a close 2nd to Dalradian and 3rd to Missrock before coming to end of prep failing at Flemington. Shown enough ability.
3. Hell Of An Effort: Two runs this prep and two strong wins. Times don’t suggest he is a superstar to me, but he is one of the key chances.
4. Lessyd: Nice run last start at Flemington when just beaten coming from off the speed in a race where the times run suited those on speed. Has ability.
5. Hey Doc: Just held off Lessyd last start at Flemington. Decent enough form but barrier makes it hard here.
6. Curvature: Couldn’t win a maiden first up at Pakenham but did run okay. Has to improve on what we ahve seen to date.
7. Solo Lane: Hawkes runner that was well backed first up and found very little. Had no excuses.
8. Fuse: Price yard runner. No money for it. Market only guide.
9. Nasdex: Moody runner from a good barrier. Has been well backed. Unseen.
10. Segovia: Griffiths yard are flying currently with the younger runners. Market your only guide here.
11. Watch My Shadow: Average trial heading into this. Breeding not that great.
12. She’s Going Off: $101-1 last start at Caulfield and well beaten from a bad barrier. Though the previous run wasn’t too bad.
13. Gretna: Very well backed Waller runner. Trial was sound.
Comments: You won’t see me jumping in here to get money on. Lessyd the value in the race the only way i could play but it’s impossible to bet, especially strongly, in a race where you haven’t seen several runners.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lessyd to win.
Caulfield Race 6
1. He or She: Has a strong turn of foot and it’s best shown when the tempo is on out front. 5th in a Group 1 to end last prep is hard to argue against. Word is he is flying at home as well and the 1400m looks more than suitable on his past runs.
2. Gracious Prospect: Hasn’t gone close enough this prep to suggest a win here especially at the weights.
3. Mighty Like: Surprising win last start at course and distance off a very strong tempo set out front. Was by far his best run for a few years. Can win coming off that run.
4. Underestimation: Very strong sectionals set last start at Flemington over 1400m and he won well from on speed. Going the right way this prep.
5. General Groove: Hasn’t won since late 2014. Three runs this prep were ‘okay’ but not great. Has to improve.
6. Berisha: Finally got to winning last prep going through the grades. His best runs were later into the prep and over further.
7. Bel Rhythm: Four runs this prep and she hasn’t gone close enough to suggest a win here today at the weights.
8. Dan Zephyr: Wide the whole race last start at Flemington when they ran only average sectionals out the front and finished it off strongly late. Well up in class here but has the ability.
9. Domesday Warrior: Much harder than last start this. Not for me.
Comments: The market has this race correct for mine. Four clear standouts.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: He or She Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7
1. Diamond Oasis: Disappointing run last start at Randwick on a wet track when well beaten. Another hard test today with a lot of speed in the race with Rough Justice expected to take him on. Will need to tough it out.
2. Reldas: Loves it when they set a fast clip and that’s going to occur today for sure. Will be out the back hitting the line strongly and he looks very well in here.
3. Atmospherical: Back to a dryer track today first up. Last two preps has failed to get a win but has gone close in Listed races. Has to be at her peak.
4. Grane: Just ignore the last three runs and rate on the previous three. Back around a bend with a shorter straight. Not the worst runner here and looks slight overs.
6. Tahitian Black: Hasn’t won in over a year for a reason and that was in much easier class. Others preferred.
7. Rough Justice: Very disappointing last start at Flemington. One run and win at this track in the past. Never won in this class. Will be on speed.
9. Trevinder: Consistent type that never runs a poor race. Well beaten by a few in this race the past three runs is the issue but he will be there or there abouts.
10. Shakespearean Lass: Every chance when favourite last start at MV and fairly beaten by a better type in RunSati. Much harder here again a big issue.
11. Runsati: Very strong wins the past two runs at Moonee Valley. Up in class again a big issue from a poor barrier and he won’t get his on speed position as easy here.
12. Well Sprung: Looked a very good type as a 3YO when won well at Moonee Valley from on speed. Obviously has to have come back at top peak form to measure up to these.
Comments: As long as they are able to back up ground today, this race will be set up a dream for Reldas to fly from the back. Most importantly, we are getting the right odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 12
Strategy: Reldas for 1.25 units @ $5.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 8
1. Gold Symphony: Looked a very nice type last prep when winning over Top Me Up and Ready for Victory. First up run this prep was very plain. Tough from the barrier.
2. Bon Aurum: Went through the grades very well last prep from a 1200m win up to Group 3 win over 1400m in very nice time from off the speed. Expect him to be on speed in this race today though and he does look well suited.
4. Ready for Victory: Found his very best runs as he went through the distances last prep for mine. He was more and more comfortable each time. If he brings his very best, he can win, no doubt about it… but it’s certainly a tough ask first up on what we know about him.
5. Sovereign Nation: Went through his grades last prep but found his very best over further. Needs the run here for mine heading onto something like a guineas.
6. Palentino: Did a few things wrong last start at Flemington but got the win with ease. This is much harder today. Nice barrier.
7. Golden Spin: Three runs for three wins this prep. Going through his grades well but this is certainly his hardest test. Won’t get an easy lead today either especially from the barrier.
8. Top Me Up: Impressive return last start with a strong early tempo set he finished off well. Another step up but I do believe he has great potential.
9. Patch Adams: Best runs last prep were over much further. Needs the run in this class today but could finish off well enough for a place.
10. Vostok: Well strong pace set last start at Sandown and he just simply was too good beating an average bunch. Certainly a nice type but has to prove himself good enough here.
11. Tulsa: Too far back in the Guineas but finished off okay. Will be better over further each run this prep.
12. Tokyo Tycoon: Two runs this prep hasn’t shown very much. Take on.
13. Puritan: Showed potential last prep but didn’t find much in his grand final. Can go well over this distance.. but need to see the first run.
Comments: Wide open race. Golden Spin and Palentino both look under the odds here. Bon Aurum looks the overs.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Bon Aurum E/W
Caulfield Race 9
1. Whistle Baby: She ran well last start from an on speed position in a race suited to back markers. Top weight but gets the claim and she is well back in class here. Never won at track but she does look well suited today.
2. Secret Toy Bizness: Very poor run first up. Hard to even consider a place bet here.
3. Marli Magic: The last three runs have all had merit. Last start just beaten from on speed at Moonee Valley with a strong tempo set. Will find it hard to get that spot from the barrier.
4. Fast Approaching: Very well placed this prep with two wins in a row in much easier races. Has to improve to measure up here and speed in race an obvious concern.
5. Blendwell: Will be suited by the pace today. Very disappointing run first up but based on best runs last prep have to consider her a chance if finds her best runs.
6. Written: Ran poorly first up at Flemington. 4 runs 0 wins 0 places at this track in the past.
7. Herstory: Very well supported last start after a very poor run first up as well, and found nothing. Hard to have here.
8. Boundary: Will be off the speed and hitting the line hard. Loves a good tempo and will get it here. Has to improve though.
9. Pindan Pearl: Doesn’t win out of turn. Well up in class here first up which is an issue for mine. Tough ask especially at a track she has never won at.
10. Mrs President: Ran well enough first up from off the speed which isn’t her normal pattern. Expect a more forward position today and up to 1400m suitable.
11. Nouvelle Again: R-58 winner up to FMB-64 win last start… has to improve significantly to be in this class.
Comments: Seven of the 11 runners will be competing for the lead so you can expect a very strong clip to be set. This is a tough race to get involved in. Whistle Baby looks the play, but can we be confident with just 1 placing from 7 starts at this track?
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Whistle Baby to win.
