Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 4 July 2015. Nothing went to plan last week and back at Caulfield we are confident of bouncing back. The rail moves out another 4m today and we can expect from the way the track walked for the front runners to have every chance today. Expecting those out the back may just need to be ridden for luck like at Flemington last week to have every chance. Looking forward to a good day of racing and some of our old favourites going around. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Charmed Harmony
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 Lord of the Sky
Melbourne Best Each-Way Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Volcanic Ash
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 9 Self Sense Each-Way
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 11, 5, 1, 7, 8, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 9, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
First race of the card because it’s impossible to have a confident bet here. So let’s have a stab in the dark at the Moody runner Le Capitaine with Dunn onboard.
Comments: You deserve a pot and a parma so get to the pub to watch the race. Take note of any good runs, but don’t bet! Sneaky fiver in the More Chillies machine?
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Le Capitaine E/W
Caulfield Race 2
Iggimacool: Out the back today from the wide barrier. Has won at this distance in the past and goes well first up… has been well backed.. top weight for a reason.
Flash of Doubt: Big win two back at big odds in grade over distance. Last start went wide during race but well beaten. Has to improve i’d suggest to measure up to these.
Khutulun: Ignore the fact she went around and look to last prep when measured up in city class races. Does have to obviously improve and believe best will be seen over further. Wouldn’t back today.
Fine Approach: Failed to measure up at group level but ran nicely enough last start in R-82 level. Has ability.
Vain Attraction: Hard horse to catch. take on here today no matter what. Last win at course in similar grade but goes around at big odds for a reason.
Pilly’s Wish: Very good run 2nd to Wild Rain last start. Will be a long way back again you would expect but expect to hit the line hard. Dryer track no disadvantage.
Sinhala: Best seen on wetter tracks and over further. No thanks.
Carashan Girl: Saw this girl trial around Vain Queen and then win first up as a result. Let her roll out the front and she can blow them away. Back to 1200m and back to a firm track both suitable today and if let go out the front to free roll at a solid tempo could be very hard to catch.
Elle Excite: Talented mare who finds ways to lose be it getting blocked for runs or jumping poorly. Harder class of race again today but consistent enough to run well from good barrier.
First Print: Continues to run well and consistently without winning or looking like winning. Will do the same again today at the weights.
Belaruski: Won quite well last start over in Adelaide back onto a firmer track. Been crying out for it. Looks well weighted and looks a decent chance to measure up if good enough.
Niminypiminy: Maiden only winner, yet to place in city class… runs this prep all fair but not up to this grade.
Miss Burlesque: Failed to win in much easier grade with less weight last start. Struggle to see a place today.
Comments: Ugly race on paper but i’m willing to take the chance on the odds bet for Carashan Girl based on the potential i’ve seen on the ratings she has run in the past.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Carashan Girl E/W
Caulfield Race 3
Radical: Ignore the run last start in the fact that he jumped poorly and got too far back to win.. it was a good run and eye-catching. Two back run at MV was a very good win worthy of following. Looks a great chance today if no issues in running.
Heavy: No issues today with the distance based on previous runs. Up in class and doesn’t look very well weighted is the concern today.
Purreal: ignore run last start when had heart issue. Back back unlucky not to get a clear run at Geelong. Have to improve today and barrier does suck, but has shown enough to suggest he can run well.
Statue of Warriors: Took a while to break through in BM-64 class this prep but finally got there last start at Moe. Straight up to 3YO class and 2000m looks ambitious.
Piran: 6L 2000m maiden winner last prep over 2000m… favourite last start at Flemington over the 2000m after a 2.5L strong win at Seymour previous start but found very little in her run. Certainly an inconsistent type but she rates very well here and from barrier one maps well.
Winchester Club: 8 length maiden winner at Cranbourne then knocked up 6L 7th in BM-64 last start. Had a lot go wrong and was galloped on, but key was back to firm ground and that may just not suit… firm today again.
Blackjack Bella: Thought she improved very well to run a fair race last start at Flemington when 2.8L 6th. Has to improve again to measure up here though.
Gilchrist: Looking for the 2000m from everything i saw last start! Out the back and let go early to get to the front too far out and still stuck on for 3rd. Very good run and looked a talented type in the making. Good odds on potential up to the distance.
Temps Voleur: Five runs this prep for a combined 51.5 lengths defeat. Hasn’t got within 7 lengths.
Betsy: Big maiden win and then close 2nd in 3F-LR grade… then had a spell and not shown us a lot since. Can’t have on recent form but does obviously have potential.
Skyfire: Big step up last start at Flemington and blocked for run but came home flying.. was blocked for a run also! Has ability but does need to improve.
Stratierra: Couldn’t win a maiden last start an issue but obviously trainer believes better over further.
Comments: Not overly confident betting here at all. Think Radical is probably the horse to beat but i can’t take the odds. Piran is the value on the E/W
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Piran E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Morant: Old mate is always unpredictable but never runs a bad race when asked for efforts. Well back in class today and back to firmer track ideal. First two runs this prep were very respectable and should have won two back. 61kg not a problem but barrier is the concern.
Rich Jack: Gives Morant 2.5kg today is a big issue at the weights, but he will be going forward from a positive enough barrier and looks the leader on paper. Suited today and will be going close. Consistent type.
Handsome Tycoon: Good win last start on the wet track at Sale. Back to firm should be no issue on Flemington 3YO 2nd on record. Took a while to find his form this prep… step up in class today but should measure up… barrier the issue… need luck to get a good spot.
Tennessee Lad: Hard to suggest a win here on four runs to date. No thanks.
StereoSonic: No disgrace first up down the straight at big odds behind Hard Romp. Up in distance and down in class with 58.5kg and D Oliver from barrier 5.
Neverending Valley: Didn’t beat much last start at Bendigo but still over-raced and won so that’s something. Up in class and similar weight and dryer track.
Marwood: Running well all prep since winning first up but not close to winning. Hard to have today with any great confidence, but is weighted okay.
Rose of Texas: Only beat Tigidig last start, nothing to be proud of honestly as a form line. Take on here.
Sir Mask: Decent win two back at Bendigo but didn’t beat a star studded race it has to be said. Very disappointing at Cranbourne last start. Others preferred.
Spencer Street: Out the back today as always. Fair run two back at MV but has to improve again and get all the favours. Ridden for luck today you have to believe.
Lord Da Vinci: Found nothing last start in harder company at MV. Back to this class today and D Oliver doesn’t take the ride says alot. Has to improve.
Muchos Respectos: Stepping up in class again today… has to improve to measure up but is certainly a consistent type and will be pushing forward enough to get a decent spot. Best seen this prep on similar distance and track condition. Place price looks value.
Mick’s Hustler: Quite a few people suggesting he is a good thing today being unlucky last two starts. Probably out the back again today is the issue?
Comments: Rich Jack goes around as favourite today. Morant lost to Rich jack three runs back by 0.4L and gets 2.5kg today on the horse. Since that run ran 0.8L 4th to Academy Jack unlucky when 3-wide whole race not to win. Last start ran fairly on unsuitable surface in Open Class for 5th… back in class and weight no issue… $20+ on offer is overs, close to single figures on my ratings.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Morant E/W
Caulfield Race 5
Actuariat: 3YO winner at Flemington over the 1400m this prep. Ran nicely enough last two starts on the soft surfaces over in Adelaide but found a few too good. Back to firm ideal but will certainly be far back from the barrier today and i’d have wanted the horse closer to the speed.
Raposo: Head to head with Duke of Brunswick two back at MV and then won very well last start with a very low weight of 51kg. Up to 59kg today is the huge issue you have to consider from the back from the wide barrier back to a firmer track over 1400m.
Duaneo: Done everything asked of him this prep. Won a maiden then won a 3YO race over in Adelaide. Did a bit wrong two back but then made up for it winning well last start in easier company. D Oliver onboard… issue is back to dryer track today, big unknown.
He’s A Given: CL2 winner on heavy three back. Since then two runs in easier grade were fair but didn’t go close enough in those for mine to win this today. Others preferred.
Mihany: Ran well enough in 3YO grade start of this prep and had to go back to BM-64 to get a win two back. Last start in open BM-70 a good run close 3rd at Flemington. Has the right ratings and will be on speed from a good barrier and weighted okay.
Volcanic Ash: Very well backed last start at Sale when ran Duke of Brunswick to 0.1L and there was a clear gap to 3rd. If you are comparing at weights today Vol Ash would have been 3.5kg better off today against Duke at the weights while Raposo would have been 2.5kg worse off, if that tells you how well weighted Vol Ash is today against what looks one of the best 3YOs going around right now in Dukey. The key issue today is the barrier for Volcanic Ash, but if good enough it won’t happen at the weights.
Zahspeed: Shown nothing two runs too date this prep. Did look an okay type last prep… struggle to suggest today.
Herstory: Nice run two back when 3rd to Duke of Brusnwick behind Raposo and up just 3kg today compared to Raposo up 8.5kg! Looks main danger.
Propelled: First up was beyond poor. Couldn’t back on that first up run, need to see her go around today.
Cataleya: Ran well enough from out the front last start at MV. Up in weight today up in class. Much harder here and much more speed on.
Comments: Raposo is the false favourite here and i’m very keen to take the horse on with Volcanic Ash. Key dangers look to be Mihany and Herstory.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Volcanic Ash E/W (Around $5/$2 on offer currently)
Caulfield Race 6
Tried and Tired: Hasn’t won in 7 runs since defeating Lord of the Sky at Sandown when very well backed over 1200m. Goes okay enough at track but last two starts have seen him was only fairly. Did have no luck last start but previous run had every chance and couldn’t place. Need to find another level and I don’t like the jockey’s recent record either. Average barrier.
Eximius: Scratched last week and taken to this. back to firmer ground today. Ran well enough first up when 2.5L 8th to Smackdown. Similar weight and Newitt takes the ride from barrier 2, will be put 2-3 back the rail and be getting out late. Loves a strong tempo but certainly doesn’t win out of turn.
Zuma Roc: Not been seen in 8 months after a 1600m first up and only run win. Previous prep 0.2L 3rd and 0.5L 4th over 2500 and 2600m to finish off. 1400m certainly too short on previous prep info in this class today but you never know do you with this horse.
Henwood: Shown nothing last two starts when well backed. Couldn’t touch today #meow.
Charmed Harmony: Back to 1400m today where most suggest he is better suited than the 1500-1600m trip. I can’t disagree that he gets the 1400m just fine so happy today with the race. Katie M rides him a treat and gets onboard today. Strong 2nd two back in harder company and then last start brave setting a fast pace when did alot wrong into the straight laying out 3rd. Clear top pick on form and class.
Our Hand of Faith: Didn’t get a run first up when blocked for runs so unknown exactly how he is going this prep. Wasn’t very well backed and the ratings of that race were average at best. Up to 1400m suited better but will certainly need to find much more today. Not sure we can count his first run as a run either… so still first up today in my books.
Every Faith: Snuck a win last start on soft track at MV from the back. Back to 1400m today and up in class only fairly weighted at best. Goes okay at this distance but 0 places from 3 starts at track a bit of a concern and thrown in the deep end. Has ability.
Stratigraphy: Thought his run first up was very good at Flemington from the back… but last start up in grade over 1400m didn’t find much at all from the back. Not sure what to expect today if i’m honest. Yet to place in class.
Tiny’s Legacy: Ran home very well for 5th to Yesterday’s Song last start. Best runs in past clearly on wetter surfaces the issue for him today but going well enough to win. Will be out the back.
Search Squad: Thought the last start run was very disappointing when looked to ahve every possible back in class. Up to this class again today back up to 1400m should be more suitable… and back to firmer track also on form lines… have to respect but he does find ways not to win.
Free of Doubt: Big price today to place. Will be on speed with Charmed Harmony and loves a hot tempo. Will stick on like last start and shorter straight suits.
Purculiar: Couldn’t place the last two starts in R-58 grade. Give me a spell.
Comments: Charmed Harmony rates to win. Will lead, will set the tempo and will fly home. Back to 1400m key today on a rail that should suit leaders.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 10
Strategy: I jumped in at the $3.50 for Charmed Harmony when they gave it to us early in the week and i’d be happy to jump in at the $3 also on offer today.
Caulfield Race 7
Our Harmony: No disgrace at all last start when 3L 3rd to Shakespearan Lass. Meets much better today at weights and maps much better today from barrier 3 to be closer to the speed. Firmer track more suitable also and back to 1100m ideal. Beat Rough Justice over 1000m three runs back and Rough Justice won at Flemington last weekend down the straight.
Pink Perfection: Showed nothing at all first up. Did show a fair bit last prep but hard to have based on first up run when down in class and up in weights after that first run. Need the run for mine.
Stiletto: Going through the grades well enough this prep. Good win out the front at Sale last start in decent times. Barrier sucks today but has ability to roll forward.
Lirabird: Won two in a row and just beaten 2nd last start at Flemington down the straight. Back around the bend no issue obviously today and looks a good type. Rates well.
Shakespearean Lass: Failed to run out the straight two back at Flemington but back to similar grade at Moonee Valley ran well and won very well around the bend… did get away with murderous times out the front which was key.. won’t get that today.
Bella Capri: Ignore last start and rate on best seen two three four and six back. Obviously goes well at these distances and back to around a turn may just suit. Wwll be coming late ridden for luck you would expect.
Mossbeat: Measured up very well in group races last prep. First up today over suitable distance… expect to put in a blinder with the speed on today, distance shouldn’t be an issue and goes well at track. Good horse.
Chiavari: Very well weighted today compared to last start when 3rd to Our Harmony.. meets 4kg better off today… but barrier 13… will they have to go back today? Has rating to measure up.
Roll The Ignition: What can she find first up? Failed to measure up in 3YOF last prep but did run well in lesser class… have to believe she is good enough if fit enough to run okay… barrier hurts though obviously.
See Me Flash: Shown nothing last five starts. No.
Tykiato: Impressive 3L win first up over the 1100m… down 5kg today and up in class big time… has to go to another level today but wouldn’t put it past her at all on that first up run. Did run Wild Rain to 2.5L who is in the main race today.
Indulge: Strange first up run… not sure what to make of it apart from the fact i can’t trust the horse to measure up here on what i’ve seen to date.
Real Warrior: First up failed to place in much easier grade when seemed to have no excuses. Take on.
But Perfect: Maiden only winner first up today. Hard to have on previous prep performances.
Amarela: Maiden only winner. Two runs this prep and failed to place in easier races. Does a fair bit wrong at times. Not the worst here.
Comments: Wide open leg of the Quaddie. Certainly surprised ot see Tykiato the favourite, but it was certainly a good first up run. Mossbeat is paying $10s today and that looks the only way i could play with the value if anything here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 11, 5, 1, 7, 8, 6
Strategy: Mossbeat E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Lord of the Sky: WFA-G1 2nd to Chautauqua followed up with a huge run 2nd at Morphetville in the Group 1. It’s hard to talk down his chances today at the weights in WFA grade when you consider the form lines. Only issue is exactly how fast the race is run… as he won’t get an easy lead if he gets one today from out wide.
Riziz: Out the back last start in Group 1 and found nothing. At his best he measures up to go close in this race, but i think he has gone backwards this prep and best is over 1200-1400m not back to 1100m. Poor barrier also doesn’t help.
Sea Lord: Soft sectionals out front last start at Moonee Valley on a slow track and low weight and pretty much stole the win. Much harder here today and just 1 place from 8 starts at this track. Back to firmer ground also… has ability but struggle to suggest this class at weights.
Pago Rock: Continues to run well this prep without getting close to a win. Back to his best track in Caulfield today and will be on the rail getting out for a run late. Has the ability if improves.
Our Nkwazi: Good win two back at MV but this is much harder today especially at the weights. Happy to take on (last start is a forgive).
Heart of a Lion: Very strong prep to date and three back and last start wins were good, but well up against it at the weights on ratings.
Anatina: Career best ratings have her well in today, but even though she pulled up lame after first race, it was a very poor showing. Never won at track and speed will be on!
Angel’s Beach: Disappointing 2nd first up but wasn’t disgraced. Then went onto Randwick and failed hard. Not ideal form coming into a higher grade today. Goes well at track we know for sure… but will she get a lead, i say no.. might get caught 3-wide if unlucky from that barrier with the speed today. Does go well enough with a sit.
Minaj: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley but fell out of it very quickly. Others preferred today based on last start run.
Miss Promiscuity: Ignore last start run and rate on previous runs which were fair but certainly not in this grade. Wide barrier will push forward, will have a tough run… has the ability to measure up to top grade but struggle to suggest from the barrier.
Klishina: What can she show today? Tough to see the win at the weights today but thought she has improved after each run this prep and the 1100m is suitable.
Wild Rain: Big win last start at Moonee Valley but was FMB-90 grade. Much harder here and up in weights… have to take her on.
Comments: Lord of the Sky will need to work for the lead or sit just outside the leader today, it’s going to be a tough race with a lot of speed, but based on the last two starts, I feel the step back to 1100m is actually ideal today and there will be more than enough give in the ground for him to simply just win this. Happy with anything over $2s which is available.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 9, 8, 11
Strategy: Lord of the Sky to win.
Caulfield Race 9
Bagman: Been threatening all prep to win and looked home last start before being claimed on the line by the stablemate up at Rosehill. Back to a dryer surface today, but last run on a Good surface was a strong 1.3L 3rd in Group 3 company at Rosehill. Would expect that he is suited by this track as it’s very similar to the profile of Rosehill and past record of 1 win 3 placing from 6 runs (only two he missed a place were WFA-G1/WFA-G2) suggests he loves the track. Oliver has a task getting a run from that far back with this barrier… top weight for a reason.
Hioctdane: Won four in a row going through the grades over in Adelaide. Continues to defy the odds and has only been favourite one of those runs! Up in class again today and the stable doesn’t send them over without expecting a bold run. Expect him to be just off the speed but should find his way over for a nice spot in running.
Self Sense: Ridden out the back the last three runs. Previous three two runs for 2nd and 1st in this similar class saw him out the front and from barrier 4, i see no reason why back up in distance he won’t be out there today. Weighted very well and this may just be his race after a good showing last start.
Lord Durante: Seemed to have every chance last two runs, but did over-race and that sees the horse never really finish off his races. Has the ability to run well but 2000m certainly not his distance and most likely over-races again setting up a solid tempo out front.
Tristram’s Sun: Given this bloke enough chances this prep I have to say. Last win was over 2000m beating Extra Zero in similar grade, but his form previous to that was much better than his last two starts this prep. Weighted okay but i’m sacking him for this run.
Ava’s Delight: Out the back as always last start but got away a bit better this time. Low weight and was able to take the victory. Don’t expect miracles to occur twice in a row. Take her on, got her win this prep.
Commanding Time: Every chance last start at MV when hitting the front but not being able to finish it off late. Weighted okay enough but all four runs this prep suggest he just isn’t up to this grade.
Secessio: Blinkers first time an interesting move. Wasn’t terrible first up at Pakenham and is clearly better ridden out the front/on speed than out the back. Barrier doesn’t help that adventure to the front today though.
Trade Commissioner: Been around the mark all prep but still hasn’t taken a place. Weighted 2kg better off today against Bagman, but has to find lengths today. Maps well enough from barrier to consider.
Westsouthwest: Ran a huge race last start returning to form over the flat in a low rating race at MV from a more positive position. No reason why he can’t be ridden in similar fashion today… dryer track today though may just see him not finish off as well as last start. Place chance for mine.
Spinderbella: Last prep measured up to this type of grade in F&M class winning at MV… but two runs to date shown very little to suggest we could trust her today especially when she started so well last prep. Looks to need the run i’d suggest.
Word of Mouth: Huge win last start at Moonee Valley destroying the field. Ran 2.8L 5th to Magicool three runs back at Flemington which is Kenjorwood form as well… so really has measured up IMO in this class this prep for mine. Will certainly be getting far back in running but should be suited by tempo.
Use The Lot: Respectable run from out the front last start at MV. Really should have been fighting out the finish with the times they got out the front I thought. Won’t get it as easy today I suggest… hasn’t won in a long time for a reason.
Nordic Duke: Never discount the Duke. Finally got a win this prep but hard to see him beating all of them home today in this class. Could flash late.
Rebel Rising: Poor barrier and massive leep in class. Hard to suggest based on not winning in lower BM class all prep.
Comments: Rail out 9m today 2080m to finish the day, you generally find that every horse has an opportunity if run truly and with Lord Durante and Use The Lot in the race, we can expect that to occur. Looks a race in four as seen in our Quaddie numbers and the market has it in a fairly similar shape. I would probably note that Use The Lot is the value in the race at the odds, mainly place price. Word of Mouth’s last start dominating win was very much tempo related, very good horse, but beat an average bunch in dominating fashion in a fast run race. From that far back in the race, I get the feeling something closer to the front if good enough can steal the race and we come back to Self Sense who we were on last start at Flemington. From barrier 4 in a race lacking in early tempo outside of the two leaders, I can see him slotting just off the speed (trainer confirmed will be more forward) and getting three lengths on the Word of Mouth and Bagman coming into the straight. Hioctdane also rates well at the prices and will have a nice spot on speed to launch home also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 14
Strategy: Self Sense E/W
