Welcome to The Profits form guide for 30 July 2016 from Caulfield. The rain has come and gone and we are expected to have a Good 4 to Soft 5 track for the full card today giving all horses a chance. Coming off some strong mid-week results at Goodwood, we are looking to keep on pushing forward with some solid results after King’s Officer saluted at big odds last week to get us back on track. One clear standout on the card today from the Hayes yard while there does look to be a bit of value around also. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Wall Street Wolf for 4 units to win @ $3.05
Next Best Bets
Caulfield Race 7 – Lord of the Sky for 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8/$2.50
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 1 – Khutulun for 1.5 units to win @ $4.40
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 6 – Andrassy for 0.75 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.50
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 13
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 13, 17
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Carol Kelly BM84
1. Magic Consol: Wide barrier will see him get an awkward position in running, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they push forward. A nice 2nd in much harder company to Killarney Kid… dryer track today but gets in well enough at weights.
2. Turbo Street: Well backed today on the back of a solid 1600m win last start at Moonee Valley. Better track condition to suit today and up to 2000m where he has run around this distance 7 times in the past for 0 wins. Need a good ride to get the right spot in running.
3. Khutulun: Huge run last start at Flemington on an unsuitable track condition and just missed. Short turn around suggests she is flying and ready to win and that this is a very good placement today. Expect them to use the barrier.
4. Straight Jacket: The clear and only leading chance on paper should see him have the race run to suit. Last start run was fairly good at Flemington and I really feel he will be better suited to a shorter straight. Respect.
5. Grand Allowance: Ran 4th at Randwick to end last prep. Been competing in country grade this prep and running okay on much wetter surfaces. Hard to suggest.
6. Initiator: Hasn’t been close the past three preps and can’t see the improvement needed today.
7. Northern Journey: Maps very well to get a sit just off the leaders. Had every possible chance in similar grades the past few runs but hasn’t found a way. 17 starts 0 wins on good tracks.
8. Walloon Region: Hasn’t been able to get closer than 3L off aw in in BM-64 grade this prep. No thanks.
9. Reticent: Maps well going forward from the wide barrier. Best runs this prep have been on wet surfaces and previous form on similar tracks to this haven’t been super. Have to take on at odds.
Comments: Really only looks about three chances in the race. I’m keen on Khutulun to get the day off to a banger the right way with 54.5kg after claims getting the horse well in at the weights… the correct use of barrier 3 and i’m sure she will hit the lead some point in the straight and be hard to get past.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Khutulun for 1.5 units @ $4.40
Caulfield Race 2 – 2400m – Vobis Gold Stayers
1. Authoritarian: 4 starts for 0 places on ‘good tracks’ Won’t be a genuine soft by race 2 which is a negative. Distance certainly has him in with a chance with 2 starts for 2 wins around this distance in the past.
2. Honey Steel’s Gold: Been running okay over hurdles. A bit out of class here though looking for a run between hurdles it appears… it isn’t overly tough the race here and a place wouldn’t shock at all on this track and conditions.
3. Bondeiger: Held up blocked for runs last start over the 2000m at course when probably should have bolted in. Will enjoy the dryer conditions again today and looks well suited as long as Williams gives a decent ride this time! Good barrier for it.
4. Scherzoso: Well up in the weights after a very nice win at course over 2000m last start. First time up to 2400m questionable but has ability and improvement to come.
5. Oncidium Ruler: Looks a nice horse on the previous three runs. Big step up in class again but have to respect his ability. Can win.
6. Jimivag: Ran an okay race 3rd at Flemington last start after some okay runs going through the grades from BM-58 and up. Back to a good track the real issue and of course this grade.
7. Music To Midnight: Ridden out the back after a poor jump last start and allowed the horse to settle and finish off over the top. May have found the way to finally ride the horse strangely enough. Huge step up in grade.
8. Desert Samurai: Decent enough run 4th to Authoritarian last start on a soft track at MV. Has to take a big step up here.
9. Danehill Downs: Maiden winner into BM-58. Tough ask.
10. O’Lonera: Good win in 3YO grade at course over 2000m. Will be suited by extra distance I’d imagine but really had the race handed to him last start at the weights. Tough ask to open grade.
11. Don’t Be Shy: Maiden only winner on heavy. Has to improve again but has some ability thats for sure.
Comments: There are a lot of horses in this race that simply can’t win. I couldn’t touch anything to win at the odds on offer, so i’d be leaning to Honey Steel’s Gold to place at the big odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Honey Steel’s Gold for 0.5 units @ $14 to place.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1000m – Brian Reckas Handicap
2. Sword of Light: Group 3 winner in first prep and then fell out of it really later in the prep.. every chance it was shin soreness or similar as a 2Yo filly. Loves Caulfield. Loves the 1000m. Big chance.
3. Crafty Cop: Hard to ignore and has been well backed. Maiden win was class and then 1400m 3rd in Group 3 class was good also. Barrier helps will be on speed and hard to hold out.
4. Rampage: 3rd to Extreme Choice last prep after a 2YO-SWP win at Moonee Valley. Looked a step below the very best but was still a good winner. Has to have gone onwards with it to place here.
5. Claro El Banco: 2YO-SW winner in a big prize money race then found nothing the next two starts in harder grade.
6. Hay Bale: Run well all three runs this prep but beaten on each occasion and this looks a step up again. Best shown on wetter.
7. Nasdex: 2YO maiden winner last start with ease. Huge step up in class though. Has to find another two gears.
8. Kentucky Miss: 2YO winner first up in easier grade on a soft track. Ran well enough in Group company last prep without threatening on any occasion. Needs to make the next step and looks suited at the 1000m.. but best seen on wetter.
9. Giroux: Rates well off the first two preps runs. Maiden only winner. Needs to have improved onwards again. Barrier makes it tough.
10. Fromparis Withlove: Every chance two runs last prep when beaten 2L and 5.6L. Hard to suggest.
12. Sprung Dancing: Maiden win was okay three back. Two back ran nicely 4th at course over 1200m but failed when wide last start. Back to 1000m may help from a better barrier.
14. Derryn: Stable like this horse but tough barrier. Looked to have ability based on only run to date.
15. Theodolite: First up today. Hasn’t won a race yet. Poor barrier.
16. Zanahary: Trialled okay i thought… stable has been doing a few things right recently and he has his balls still for a real reason.
17. Lucky Beau: Market the only guide.
19. Gatlinburg: Well backed only run last start but failed to impress.
Comments: I thought the price on offer here for Sword of Light looked very nice. Barrier not an issue i’m okay with a horse having a good ride out wide on this track today over the 1000m.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Sword of Light E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1200m – John Skewes Handicap
2. Yasnat: Will attempt to lead from the wide barrier. Gets down in weights with the claim… well up in class and back to dryer ground a concern.
3. Anatola: I thought she ran a very well improved race last start at course and distance. Well up in weights but that is deserved. Strong barrier again and will get a dream run again.
4. Giddyup: Trialled well. Strong form heading into this. Has to improve onwards again to measure up to this grade but stable believe she has strong ability… won a 1400m maiden by 8L.
5. Sound Works: Hasn’t won on good tracks in the past. Last start well beaten down the Flemington straight coming off a heavy track win in much easier at Bendigo.
6. Dream Food: Nice win first up on softer surface in much easier grade. Next start in easier grade ran fairly but well beaten and last start saw her fail to show much.
7. Mamzelle Tess: Good win in BM-64 grade two back at Geelong then well defeated in 3FB-64 last start. Spelled since but still hard to have alot of faith.
8. Black Mary: Inside barrier will get a spot on the rails. BM-58 up to this looks rough.
9. Sky Dazzle: Very good run two back at Moonee Valley for 2nd. Ignore last start though.. barrier 6 will push forward.. can run well.
10. Carterista: Only run to date was a very strong 2nd behind Ocean Embers when over raced and had to go around the field. Good chance here.
11. Conspicuous Maid: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start so struggle to suggest here.
12. Deconi: Big run at odds last start off the pace midfield when came home well back on a dryer track. Weighted nicely again here but has to improve from poor barrier.
13. Russian Empress: 6L maiden winner two preps back then failed to fire since. First up today. Has ability.
14. Better Strike: Well beaten the last two starts with no excuses. Maiden win three back was only fair.
15. Blithe Belle: Ran on well enough from last at course and distance last start in this grade. Has to improve onwards again and barrier doesn’t help to get a better position.
16. Make Her Own Whey: Poor barrier, up in weights as well which doesn’t help. Hard to suggest on form at weights.
17. Try Pink: Couldn’t win a maiden.
18. Payday Princess: Couldn’t win a maiden. Better suited back to dryer at least today.
Comments: Another tough race. Several chances at odds to improve and make a race of this. Anatola clearly on my form the horse to beat from a positive barrier 2 run.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Anatola to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 2000m – Hellen Egan Handicap
1. Hursley: Ran as expected last start with a strong run finishing 3rd. Wasn’t suited by the speed set for the majority of the race and wasn’t suited by getting back to near last early on. Will get a better ride from barrier 5 today.
2. Alamonteel: Very easy win over in Adelaide last start and takes a huge step up in class here. Has ability and will run well but back to dryer track the concern.
3. It’s Humphrey: BM-64 grade winner.. big step up in grade up in distance also.
4. Albion Road: CL1 winner on heavy two back. Well beaten in similar grade since. One you can’t suggest on previous form.
5. Mr Simples: BM-64 grade winner heading into this. Huge step up in class again.. well up in distance.
6. Palace Tycoon: Very nice run last start at course and distance when ran 1.5L 2nd. Barrier hurts but he seems to be getting close to a win now.
7. Zafiki: WOn a CL2 three runs back. Last two runs on heavy average at best and probably forgive? Has to improve.
8. Bring A Rose: Well out the back last start and finished off strongly enough for 4th. Consider.
9. Perfect Lifeline: Loomed to win last start but lacked fitness. Will improve here and could be match fit today. Has to improve past a few.
10. Mr Million: Hasn’t been able to win a maiden.
11. Chilean Wonder: Maiden only winner not measuring up in much easier this prep.
12. Comeback: Finally got a maiden win after many seconds. Not here.
13. No Love: Maiden win in much much easier last start. Struggle to suggest here.
14. Birkdale: Yet to win a race.
Comments: Not a great deal of confidence in this race either, but the right ride by Craig Williams on Hursley should see the horse winning.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Hursley to win.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Debra Coombs Handicap
1. Vibrant Rouge: Frustrating horse to follow and continue to back. Similar class today and weighted well enough again. Best runs in past have all been on good tracks. Never won from 10 starts at track but always seems to handle it and run well. Has to improve onwards but has the ability to run well.
2. Forgeress: Progressed past A Lotta Love three back on heavy.. beaten just two back and then last start ran very well just beaten 2nd to Telopea at Flemington. No issues back to Good track you would feel and gets in well at weights after claims. Good barrier also.
3. Rockolicious: Wide barrier may make it tough to get in for a good spot in running. Ran very well in similar company up in Sydney around at Rosehill the last prep. Now with Weir.
4. Miss Softhands: Big disappointment run last start after some feet issues. Will be much better today but i’d still want to see the run here.
5. My Sister Lil: Did a bit wrong last start but really had every chances. Hard to see the required improvement today.
6. Celeritas: Two runst his prep were both horrible. Hard to suggest anything here on what we have seen.. will appreciate the dryer track at least.
7. Nadeem Lass: Flew home last start 2nd to Beirut. Weighted nicely again – awkward barrier and spot from there. Has to improve.
8. Butterboom: Been going around up in Sydney on wetter surfaces – seemed to have been running well. Hardest test to date.
9. Andrassy: Looks the leader on mapping if they decide to today from barrier 1 – with Dunn onboard that should occur. First up very good win at course over 1100m and then next start should have bolted in. Last two starts went backwards a little bit form wise but has had a month and a half between runs to get her back on track.
10. Choice: First up for this import. Has won in this type of grade in the past but needs further.
11. Arianne: Talented type with best runs over much further in the past.
12. Northroza: Every chance two runs this prep but found a few too good. Big step up in class again makes it tough.
13. Jinx: Nice enough runs this prep showing some talent. Win wouldn’t be a total shock from what has been shown previously.
14. Gold Bar: Nice enough run last start at Pakenham but has to improve onwards and upwards to place here.
Comments: I’m surprised and shocked by the price on offer for Andrassy today. It was a very brave win first up and then 2nd up unlucky not to beat some talented mares that day. A return to form will see her well up to her eyeballs here after a good break.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Andrassy for 0.75 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.50
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Bletchingly Stakes
1. Smokin’ Joey: Only ever won first up once ever in the past. Hasn’t been within 4L of a win the past two preps is a big issue for this ageing 8yo.
3. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Flying last start when never a chance from the ride given. Barrier 11 will see him wide in the straight ridden to have every chance. I’m not convinced he has the quality to run them down off the expected tempo.
4. Lord of the Sky: Very strong run last start at course over 1100m on a dry track. Gets a little sting out of the ground today which is very important. D Oliver takes the ride and with The Cleaner out of the race he looks very well suited. Hard to beat.
5. Charmed Harmony: Huge overs in the race. Shouldn’t be the outsider of the race. Last two runs at this course were a 0.3L 2nd to Black Heart Bart who went onto win a Group 1 and 0.2L 1st in Open class with 59kg. Looks very well suited having a freshen up and the extra mm or 2 of rain yesterday will give him the desired ground. Will be allowed to just roll and sit outside the leader. Big chance on ratings.
6. Thermal Current: Maps to take a sit just off the leaders from the inside barrier. Good win two back on softer track. Hard to see the required turn around in form to get the win.
7. Magnapal: Last seen over 2400m. Needs the run.
8. Tudor: Old mate is very hard to catch! Last win was over 1400m. 0 places from 9 starts at track.
9. Taddei Tondo: 2 places from 9 starts at this track… four runs this prep in easier company and hasn’t really gone close. Prefer wetter also.
10. Mahuta: Never won at this distance in the past so looks well under the odds. Best runs have been 1400-1600m. Will be going forward and may get caught 3-wide. First time outside of 3YO grade also. tough ask.
11. Odyssey Moon: Really looks the forgotten horse of the race. Did a bit wrong last start over-racing which cost him in the finish when a close 3rd in 3YO Listed grade. Previous run beat a Open class grade race. Best runs in past on wetter but don’t dismiss.
12. Runway Star: Good horse. WFA-G3 3rd last prep. Group 1 2.4L 6th. Group 3 fillies/mares win. Big step up in class again though.
Comments: The prices being bet in this race today are just simply wrong. Mahuta is well under the odds for mine based on everything we know while the same can be said for Fast ‘n’ Rocking knowing how far back he will get. Lord of the Sky and Charmed Harmony both gets the runs of the race on my ratings and both get the track conditions they want.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Lord of the Sky for 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8/$2.50
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap
1. Mr Individual: Very solid win at course and distance first up from on speed. The ratings out of the race were solid but nothing super. Has to improve onwards again at the weights. Respect him.
2. Prince of Brooklyn: No sleep till this horse bloody wins! back to a firmer track today should actually suit him even better. Two solid runs heading into this so up to 1400m has to be suited i’d imagine. Sit midfield at best in a big open race. Need a good ride!
3. Divine Mr Artie: Loves to flash home and did it once again last start when 3rd to Mr Individual. Maps out the back again. Will need a gem of a ride.
4. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Good run on speed for 4th last start in 3YO grade at Flemington. Back down to 1400m looks more ideal and from barrier 1 will be trying to lead but won’t get an easy time of it.
5. Thelburg: Well beaten at Flemington failing the task on soft track and 1100m.. back up to 1400m will suit. has to improve again but has ability.
6. Jose Wales: Step up in class again. Best runs in past on wetter tracks. Will go okay but hard to suggest.
7. Makatiti: Big win last start at course and distance on a wetter track. Never won from 6 starts on good tracks a concern but always runs well. Missed a run last week is a concern when should have been running. Barrier hurts chances.
9. Little Bita Spunk: Horrible ride last start. Better weighted today and has good form around Makatiti and a few others.. but hard to suggest with alot of speed in this.
10. Twisting Typhoon: Breathing issues last start a forgive. Few weeks between runs. Best is good enough to run well. barrier hurts chances.
11. Kinshachi: Godolphin runner just beaten last start at Flemington. Up in class again here but stays at same distance. Well weighted with 2kg claim. Respect!
12. Uncanny Effort: Doesn’t win out of turn. Been going well four runs in this prep but this is a huge step up in class. Has to improve.
13. Wall Street Wolf: Needs to be calm heading to the gates 8 length maiden winner last start .. very green the previous run. Looks to be a potential superstar. Very good barrier today.
14. Spearhead: CL1 winner last start. Massive step up in class. Struggle to suggest.
15. Indiana Wolf: Been running okay without really impressing in this grade. Has to improve again to measure up.
16. Nic Nac: Maiden only winner. Tough to see the improvement from this barrier.
17. Flake and Chips: No form. Have to include in Quaddie?
18. Del Piero: Hard to have on form.
Comments: Wall Street Wolf looks the real deal. Weighted to win. Maps to win. Gets the conditions required to win. Most importantly, last start he was doing his best work over the final 100m and he kept on running even after the line, suggesting a strong 1400m is in his book. I’m happy to take the price on offer here.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 13, 17
Strategy: Wall Street Wolf for 4 units @ $3.05
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Champagne Pommery Masters
1. Royal Island: Well beaten the last two starts. Lowest grade he has seen in a long time and gets 64kg for his troubles! Have to respect his ability on three and five back runs on softer courses.
2. So Does He: Nice run last start at course and distance for a 5th. Poor barrier today will see him get further back than hoped again. Wants it to rain also.
3. Don’t Get Excited: Been running okay without looking ever a winning chance. Hasn’t won since 2014.
4. Hokkaido: First up today.. never run well really first up in the past. Tough ask here from barrier 19. Best runs in past over further.
5. Magicus: Very nice win last start at Moonee Valley in similar grade on a soft track. Good horse and well respected. Can win this.
6. Caprese: Hard horse to catch but does win every so often. Never won at track or at this distance. Goes well enough on previous runs.
7. I’m Ablaze: Big win at odds last start from on speed. Won’t be doing that today. Can still win from off pace but makes it hard certainly.
8. Marwood: Running very well this prep. 0.5L 4th flashing home last start. Better barrier today can sit nicely in run.
9. Archean: Needs further on what we have seen on previous preps… but never discount a Weir first up new stable mover.
10. Anyaas: Well back in class after a respectable 4th at course over 1200m last start leading most the way. Respect her ability but barrier makes it tough.
11. Fast Approaching: Had her chances and was well beaten last start. Hard to see off those two lead in runs.
12. Benchi Pegasus: Four runs this prep and hasn’t gone close on any occasion. Back in class after running okay last start but clearly needs to find lengths.
13. Proud Wolf: BM-78 winner on heavy last start. Never won on Good. Hard to see the improvement.
14. Got You Double: Okay type. Two runs this prep shown nothing. Has to improve. Needs further.
15. Alleyoop: Travelled around. Hasn’t won since a good win in 2015 in nice grade. Well beaten at short odds quite a few runs this prep.
16. Soosa Rama: Hasn’t won in a long time. Two runs this prep far off a place or win.
Comments: Tough way to end the day. Magicus the clear top pick at the odds from the barrier.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Magicus to win.
