Welcome to The Profits form guide for 30 April 2016 at Caulfield. Back at Caulfield with the rail in the True, you can expect leaders to have a slight advantage overall today with the Good 4 track. Hopefully we can get a few results our way. Looking forward to a very good day of racing. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Basset for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.30 Each-Way
Other Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Lahqa for 2 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – Charmed Harmony for 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win.
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Tristram’s Sun for 0.75 units @ $41/$8.5 Each-Way
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – Ern Jensen Funerals Plate
1. Lahqa: Always been a nice type that has been measuring up in 3YO grade races and running well. This is a step up in class again but is going well enough to consider a chance.
2. Antelucan: Showed very little first up over 1400m behind some good types. Clearly needs to have found lengths on that run to be measuring up here over 1600m.
3. Miss Cooper: Found nothing first up when ridden not to lead. Should be pushing forward and running well.
4. She’s Got Speed: Ran well enough second up when third behind Bengal Cat with a dream run just off the speed. Will need to improve but has shown ability.
5. Fife: Smerdon runner going through the grades. Slow speed set last start probably didn’t suit for her best… but I need to see the run here today before considering backing.
6. Lady Provocateur: Strong maiden win first prep. First up favourite this prep breathing issues. Hard to take on trust off that first up run.
7. Quilate: Maiden winner last start after 7 runs. Has to improve onwards but does have ability.
8. Valentine’s Reward: Every possible chance on speed the last two runs a found a few too good. Won’t get it anywhere as easy today either.
9. Aura Lee: Hard to suggest off the three runs this prep.
Comments: Lahqa has the gun position today from barrier 2 and with the claim of the talented Dylan Dunn, will be given the perfect ride depending on the tempo. Looks well suited here and the price is more than correct to back.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lahqa for 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Next Payments Handicap
2. Tristram’s Sun: Poor tactics last start leading at Caulfield. Just ignore that ride and base on the fact his very best is over this distance with a sit. Will be primed a week between runs after that toughening run. Big overs and loves a little sting out.
3. Araldo Junior: Old mate was horrible first up over 1600m. Last prep over this distance beat an average bunch when he was plunged at Benalla. Obviously has ability but best is over further and deeper into prep I’d imagine.
4. Kareeming: Short backup today after a disappointing third when had every possible chance last start at Caulfield. Good barrier again will be just off the speed.
5. Doumaran: In-form stable. This bloke looked nice enough last prep with two solid runs and was just okay first up from the back. I really think his best is over further and needs the run here heading up in distance. Best will be 2800m-3000m.
7. Zahspeed: Three wins in a row from on speed. Big jump in class here and biggest test to date. Push forward from wide barrier.
8. Tarquin: Had absolutely every chance last start over 1600m in 3YO grade and didn’t measure up to the task when 3rd to Bengal Cat 2.3L off the winner. Hardly ever see them measure up when they go up to open class like this guy is being asked today and straight up to 2000m also. Happy to take him on with pattern.
9. Gabella: Another import. Failed to measure up to the mark two runs to date. Will improve onwards again today but I really think she needs just a few more runs and this is a big test today. Can win but not for mine at price.
10. Sabkhat: Two runs to date and failed to fire a shot on either occasion for mine. This is the big test 2 weeks between runs and i’m not convinced he is up to this level just yet on form this prep.
11. Beau Brommell: Going around last prep in cup type races. Best runs over lesser distances but has gone well over this distance in the past. First two runs this prep not the best you will ever see though. Has to improve.
12. Firehouse Rock: Always runs well but finds a few too good when it counts. Last start tells us where he is at. Good but not great.
Comments: Wide open race today and the huge value today is Tristram’s Sun. Will get the gun run from barrier 3 and have the tempo to suit. A little bit of rain is the ideal. A week between runs the key here.. will be ready to fire as a proven Open class winner against the two favs who are up and comers at best.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Tristram’s Sun for 0.75 units @ $41/$8.5 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Changing Places Real Estate Handicap
2. My Poppette: Group 2 winner as a 3YO. First run open class. Has won over 1200m in the past for a maiden so not disadvantaged at this distance. Has ability.
3. Orujo: Hasn’t won since 2014. Well up in class again here after a close 2nd last start at Warwick Farm. Has to improve and gate doesn’t help.
4. Olivier: Goes very well over this distance range. Goes well first up also. 10 months between runs. Very best seen on wet tracks but goes well on dry also. Placed 2 from 4 at track. Maps well. Don’t discount.
5. Squeaky Squirrel: Did a lot wrong last start at Mornington when ran a decent 4th. Can improve today if improves in running behaviour and gets runs. Barrier won’t help.
6. Toothless: Well below best last start at Caulfield in comparison to the second up run at Ballarat. Questionable if he will find that peak runs ratings again today on last start. Has ability but has to improve.
7. Windjammer: Hasn’t won since 2014. Not going well enough this prep to consider.
8. Coram: Doesn’t win out of turn. Last win didn’t beat much but was a solid win over 1400m. First up found nothing and needs further.
10. Niminypiminy: Was well backed first up but failed to fire a shot. Best runs have been over further distances in the past. Never won 2nd up. Last prep best runs were 5-6 runs in. Never won on a Good track.
11. Sang Choi Bao: Hasn’t won since 2014. Last prep five runs at single figures and never got better than 3rd. Always well backed but disappointed when the real questions asked of him. Obviously has ability.
12. Sir Mask: Similar class today as he has been going around in for a long time. Won just 1 of his last 20 races in similar grade. Always runs well but finds a few too good.
13. Magnagem: Just missed last week. Short backup. Had every chance and found one too good on the day. Not exactly much better weighted here but obviously going well enough from a good barrier.
14. Baby Don’t Cry: First up today. Back in distance the concern here for this talented type. Top form run would go close.
15. Subiaso: Old mate needs further than this. Pass.
Comments: There is no clear standout here today in what looks a really low grade race. I couldn’t have either of the favourites at the prices here. While I won’t be betting here, I’d have to be going for a bit of value with win bets on My Poppette and Tankster.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: My Poppette to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – No Fuss Event Hire Handicap
1. Exclusive Lass: Three runs this prep. First up run was clearly her best with a strong 2nd in F&M class. Failed to fire on the softer track next start at MV and was a forgive run last start. Won’t find any easy lead here.
2. Nadeem Lass: Hasn’t won a race in a fair while but it was in this grade in the past. Not the worst run last start at Bendigo but didn’t exactly set the world on fie. 1400m back to 1100m.
3. Kayjay’s Joy: Looked a potential superstar in the making last prep going through the grades with 2 wins in a row at Caulfield but failed to fire ending off the prep disappointingly. Goes well enough at these distances but best is clearly over further. Hard to suggest in this class at distance.
4. She’s Miss Devine: Just how good is she? Down to 1100m obviously suits. Will be on speed but doesn’t have to lead and most likely won’t. Her best can win this but this is the true testing material.
5. Pink Perfection: Really liked the progression she showed last prep with a FMB 90 win at course and distance, followed by a 2nd to form horse Bullpit down the straight at Flemington. Barrier a big issue, but with a good ride, should find a nice enough spot and be a big player.
6. Forgeress: Goes well first up. Hasn’t been seen in several months after a decent prep where she won a F&M race and ran 1.5L behind Politeness over 1200m at course. Her best is more than good enough to be measuring up here. Barrier a big issue.
7. Japhils: Will be pushing forward but not finding an easy lead if they want it. Three runs this prep were all fine but found French Emotion too good for her two runs back. Has to improve onwards with a short turn around.
8. Andrassy: Nice win at course and distance last prep in much easier grade. 2 runs 0 places in this company in the past. Obviously a big step up here but maps well and the times run last start were solid.
9. Pretty Possum: Big odds last start when went over to Adelaide and ran very well on speed for a close 3rd in Listed grade. Previous run on speed 5th in Mares grade behind Miss Promiscuity. Similar times run. Hasn’t won in a long time like many horses, but always put in her all and runs well.
10. Zakayla: Won 3 of her 4 races by 7L, 3.8L and 4.5L. Best runs have been 1400-2000m. This looks simply too short to even consider. Has ability, if money comes they know more than we do!
11. Hotel Sierra: Too far back the last two starts. Horrible barrier again won’t help and i doubt they try and push forward from out wide as they never have previously. Need luck from barrier.
13. One Lucky Gal: Out the back. First up goes well normally on previous form. Big step up in class here though outside of her grade. Hard to suggest but has shown some ability.
14. Gold Heist: Two runs this prep. First up slow away lost a plate. Second up blocked for run at critical stage and overall ran well without winning. Big step up again though. Could place.
15. Winspot: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Two runs this prep don’t look good enough to measure up here outside of a 3rd placing best.
Comments: Some very nice mares here today. I’m not convinced She’s Miss Devine deserves our backing at the $2.70, but i wouldn’t be overly keen to take her on either. If playing i’d be on her and Pinky who rates very close on my prices to She’s Miss Devine. Forgeress is the interesting runner at odds that could perform well, just i really dislike the barrier.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: She’s Miss Devine to win. Also bet Pink Perfection.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Thoroughbred Club Cup
1. Highland Beat: Seemingly hit and miss throughout his career, especially in the very top races. Two runs since has started short and won well last start. Goes well at this track but yet to win in 4 runs. Maps to be going forward obviously.
2. Lionhearted: Four runs to date and yet to get a win on the board. Those 4 runs though have obviously been very good with a 0.8L 2nd in G2 and 1.5L 4th in G2. Barrier an issue but should run well. Needs it dry.
3. Curvature: Two runs to date. First run 2nd to Seaburge not a bad form line. 2nd run 2nd to Valliano is nice enough also. First up after a few months off see how they go today.
4. Dissolute: Well backed favourite at both his runs in the past. Issues on jump first up. Last start out the back and ran wide and overraced, ran well but just missed. Going well enough and barrier should help him.
5. Atlantic Express: Two runs to date and failed to fire on both occasions. Hard to have.
6. Epic Moment: Market only guide. Has been backed in the past day.
7. Schilleraine: Market only guide: Very big drift.
8. Vanquish: Market only guide. Big drift.
9. Oregon’s Day: Only run to date was an unlucky 2nd in Maiden class. Should have won. Count it as that on the record. Can measure up if improves onwards.
10. Fromparis WithLove: Only run to date wasn’t very well backed late and ran to suit. Hard to suggest even off the one week backup.
11. Wangaala: Market only guide. Has been well backed.
Comments: Wide open race. Progressive types against those that are proven. I really feel that Highland Beat hasn’t done anything wrong to suggest he can’t go on and win this today, especially if none of these prove to be superstars.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Highland Beat E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Australian Seating Systems Handicap
1. Bassett: First up run this prep at course and distance was more than good enough to win this today. Ridden differently the next two starts, I have a feeling we really can just forgive the Flemington run and just simply saw he was outclassed the Randwick run. Obviously does need to return to form today but generally that profile is off two average runs. Best ratings in the past more than good enough and loves this track.
2. Manhattan Blues: First up got the win at Bendigo in much easier grade. Last start at Sandown found little to suggest we could back him here with any great confidence.
4. Kentucky Flyer: Laing horse. Best runs in past have been over further. Last start run not good enough to win this.
5. Amadeus: One of the key runners in this race today. Will push forward from the barrier today and should find himself one off the fence, most likely with cover. Should get a charmed run and have very few excuses. 1400m back to 1200m the only issue for me.
6. Tan Tat Charger: Ugly barrier for this talented type. He will be going back from there. Got his maiden two back and then BM-64 grade win last start. Obviously has to show much more here.
7. Divine Mr Artie: First up run at course and similar distance was only fair from out the back. Barrier 3 today hard to see them riding him much differently. Will need to have improved in the space of a week to win this.
8. Ragazzo Del Corsa: Run very well in Group races in the past, but two runs this prep have not been top quality. Will go forward as always.
10. Murphy’s Reward: Maiden winner. Win was fair at best. Not for mine here.
12. Nat’s The Boss: Couldn’t win 64 grade races the last two starts when well backed. Obviously trying to go through the grades but this is a big step up.
13. Punt Club: Nice enough type on her maiden win two back but failed to get the chocolates last start at Cranbourne. Has to improve.
Comments: While i’m not overly thrilled with the barrier today for Bassett, the horses best runs are far above those in this race today. This is the horses track and distance and a good ride should see him get the chocolates.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6
Strategy: Basset for 1.5 units @ $6.50/$2.30 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m – Sky High Mt Dandenong Handicap
1. Loyalty Man: Won two in a row this prep over some nice types as well. Never far off a win in the past and has run 4th over 1800m in Group 2 company. Gun run from barrier 1 – most likely leads or just sits off someone who wants to take him on.
2. Unbreakable: Hard to be disappointed with the run last start at course over 1600m. Was a solid 2nd to Bengal Cat. Barrier a big issue today and I can’t see him getting a got spot in running without going forward which is a possibility.
3. El Greco: Once looked a top prospect but this prep has failed to fire. Up to 1800m a throw at the stumps I feel.
4. Red Alto: Wide barrier so will need to get a good ride to be a factor from there. Failed to win a maiden two back and then a 3YB-70 last start as well, well beaten by Loyalty Man. obviously much better weighted today up to 1800m but has to improve.
5. Zandrral: Maiden winner over 1700m. Placed over 2040m in 3YO grade. First up this prep won over BM-64. Ticks all the boxes for a Weir runner and barrier 3 obviously a tick.
7. Le Boss: Couldn’t win a CL1 last start which is obviously a deep concern. Has ability but would expect to need more improvement again.
8. Let’s Twist: Maiden winner only just last start. Hard to see the jump right away.
9. Angel Eight: Won 1 from 6 starts (maiden) over 1200m. Running just fine over these distances but struggle to suggest even back to 3YO grade.
11. Lightning Bell: Weir runner. BM-64 back to this today. Could turn it around.
12. Scandal Sheet: $1.60 fav winnner of his maiden on 7th attempt. Up to bm-64 well beaten last start. Hard to suggest even from this stable.
15. Coller Bay: Maiden winner. Has to go onwards with it after that effort last start to measure up here.
Comments: Another wide open race with several key chances. Not sure I could be confidently backing anything here.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5
Strategy: Zandarral to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Charter Keck Cramer Plate
1. Charmed Harmony: Flying right now. Rail will be a cracker and he will get the lead on a track that will be in the Good 4 range the majority of the day. Will take a good one to get past him.
2. Hi World: His very best runs have been over 1400-1600m range in the past. First two runs last prep were his best. Goes well firs tup. Goes well at this track. Looks a big chance.
3. Rhythm To Spare: First up run ran as expected, very poorly. Others preferred… best over further.
4. Guest of Honour: Not the worst run 4th last start at Sandown but Nevis didn’t exactly frank the form last week. Going through the motions to find a win. Not sure its over this distance.
5. Wish Come True: Best runs in the past have been over further. Needs the run first up.
6. Sistine Demon: Ran much better than expected first up behind Precious Gem from on speed. Won’t be suited by Charmed Harmony being in the race though today. Has to improve.
7. Moonovermanhattan: Old mates hard to catch for a win. I still feel his best is 1600-2000m on last few preps. Hard to have first up here.
8. Longeron: First up today, never exactly finds his best over this distance and never won first up.
9. Enquare: Not the worst form this prep but keeps finding a few too good. Expect a better spot in running today but has to improve.
10. Freshwater Storm: Hard to be overly excited about him first up here. Needs a few runs under belt and very dry.
11. Lord Durante: Still looking for further. Did run much better than expected last start though. Place wouldn’t shock.
12. Refulgent: First up was horrible did nothing as expected by market. On his way up in distances. Needs the run.
13. Zebulon: Obviously a good type on 3YO runs. Has to have improved but will run well.
14. Bradman: Can’t see him measuring up to this on two runs back.
Comments: Will take a good type today to run down Charmed Harmony and i’m just not sure they will be doing it. Price on offer is more than acceptable, especially if they are running on well out front all day.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9
Strategy: Charmed Harmony @ $3.40 for 1.5 units.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – L U Simon Builders Handicap
1. Entre Nous: Going through the grades. Well beaten by a better horse on the day last start at Caulfield. Well back in class and looks well rated here.
2. Hollywood Bound: Ran very well two back behind Ungrateful Ellen. Back to this grade today. Can improve and go one better.
3. Leveraction: Old mate will be going forward from wide out. Beaten short priced fav 3 back and since then in similar races run okay but never a winning chance. Has to improve.
4. Mihany: Taken a long time to go through the grades but finally put two wins on the board. Hardest test to date but going well enough. Won’t get an easy lead today though. Most likely takes a sit.
5. Pacific Heights: Only run this prep very poor. Best over further on last few preps starts. Needs the run.
6. Monteux: Well backed all three runs this prep. Got the win first up but a few too good next two starts.
7. Plot The Course: Well backed both starts this prep yet failed to fire in both. Lame last start. misses the start alot.
8. Happy As Hell: Last start run was over 2800m. Needs the run here.
9. Mossbeat: Always runs okay without winning. Has to improve on last few starts.
10. Zlatan: Going forward again. Looks well enough suited here. Can run well.
11. Bajour: Won over 1400m last start. Best runs though were 2000m+.
12. Prepee: Good win two back at Cranbourne. Ignore last start run though. Can win.
13. Trendsetter: Well beaten fairly first up. Needs further for best.
14. Tips and Beers: Loves to run well but hans’t won since 2014. Three runs to date not good enough.
15. Mr Pago: Good enough win last start at Geelong. Up in class again here. Has to improve but should measure up to the class at least. Barrier doesn’t help cause.
16. Hard Call: Every chance last start at Caulfield but still ran well enough 5th. Down 4kg here and back in class. Suited.
Comments: Wide open last race of the day. Hard Call is weighted to win here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 16
Strategy: Hard Call E/W
