Welcome to The Profits form guide for 27 February 2016 at Caulfield. Blue Diamond Day is upon us! While there is a load of great betting around the country, we are focusing on Caulfield as always. Coming off a very solid week at Flemington, we are hoping to continue the roll with great results again for our followers. Having walked the track, I’m expecting the rail to play very well, while those going down the middle of the straight will be rewarded also. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Bassett for 3.5 units @ $4.80
There are several good types in this race, but when all is said and done, Bassett is the class runner with the proof on the board. Most importantly, he is well weighted here and maps to get lengths on the rest of the key ‘chances’ heading into the straight, leading on a rail I believe will be well suited to leaders. The price is far over my rated price.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Tally for 2 units to win @ $3.00. Patch Adams for 0.5 units to win @ $8.00
With Mahuta expected to come out, I have my eye on Tally here as clear top pick while Patch Adams will improve significantly today ridden quieter. Both rate to go very close with Tally the more likely party.
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Flamberge for 0.75 units @ $31/$8.50 Each-Way
Wide open race. Flamberge is a HUGE price today and I cannot let that slip past! Sure, Heatherly will be hard to beat, but I’ll take the Group 1 proven form at these odds every day.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 10, 11, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 7, 13, 16, 18
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Mornington BMW Cup Prelude
1. Extra Zero: Old mate always runs well here at Caulfield. His last three runs have been disappointing but the previous three runs were obviously very good. Back to 2000m today and well down in class, deserves the weight and is over the odds slightly.
2. Bonfire: Waterhouse runner. Last prep was rather disappointing all things considered. Has ability to run well here if going well enough.
3. Manndawi: 3YO Group 1 second to Flintshire over 2400m in France in 2013. Since resuming racing in 2015 hasn’t got within 5L of a win… that being said his run at Geelong last prep to finish it was quite good over 2400m. 2000m probably short of his best but don’t be surprised to see him run very well.
4. Tashbeeh: Disappointing run last start at course for 2nd. Up in class here. Has the ability to win but certainly hard to see the improvement needed again from barrier.
5. Good Value: Kept racing but hasn’t run a very strong race for four runs. Hard to suggest.
6. Tuscan Fire: Big win last start at Caulfield. Harder race here today but make no mistake, he was a Open/Listed horse over 2000m in previous preps. Can run well.
7. Kareeming: Breathing issues last start. Two poor runs to date and best runs in past over further. Has run well in this class and distance but highly unlikely on previous runs.
8. Assign: Big weight last start at Sandown and proved far too good on speed with a nice enough speed on. Up to 2000m looks suited again. Open class winner in Ireland over 2400m for a reason. Take on at your own risk.
9. Radical: Huge disappointment last start in the Colac Cup failing hard. Previous run equal first with Tuscan Fire. 2kg worse off today.
10. Wexford Town: Best runs in the past have clearly been over further and in easier. Happy to take him on here.
11. Koroibete: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Never placed in 4 runs over this trip.
12. Magnus Slipper: Nice enough win first up but this is just too big a jump second up today up to 2000m. Has ability, but has to improve.
Comments: Assign gets the dream run from barrier 4 just off the pace. To pick, but at the price, I just can’t bet with confidence on potential.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Assign to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Zeditave Stakes
2. Odyssey Moon: 5 runs for 3 places but no wins at this distance. 9 runs for 4 places but 0 wins at this grade. He is a good colt, but he just seems to fall a bit short of getting the job done when it counts.
3. Puritan: Huge win first up this prep at course and distance. Hard to ignore the last start run. Going well enough to win.
4. Well Sprung: Handy enough run last start at Moonee Valley in BM-78 grade. Has the ability to run a nice race but does have to improve on the last start run to beat all these. Maps well.
5. Bassett: Hard to ignore the form lines of this talented gelding. 3Y-SWP winner beating Keen Array fair and square. Beat Kinglike fair and square. Ran 0.4L off Mahuta over 1600m and 2.8L off Press Statement. Best runs in the past were over this distance. Top class.
6. Mogador: Well bred colt. Nice run 2nd to Keen Array last prep and failed to fire in the Coolmore. Should run well today from off the speed but I’m not convinced he has the class to win this first up.
7. El Greco: Another horse I have a lot of time for, but his better runs in the past were all 1400m+ and above. Should run well from a good barrier but others preferred.
8. Brockhoff: Will be pushing forward today after a nice enough win first up. Will sit just off the speed most likely and hope for a charmed run. Last prep looked a few lengths short of the very best.
9. Popovich: Going through the grades but this is a massive jump up in class. Has to improve to place.
10. Star Planet: 9 runs for 0 wins. Ran a nice 3rd over 1100m in similar grade but that form hasn’t measured up very well. Has to improve on first up run significantly.
11. Santa Ana Lane: Went around favourite his last start run at course over 1400m in 3YO-LR. Long time between runs, get the feeling he has to have trained on something fierce to win today.
12. Tuscany Hero: Maiden only winner. Hard to suggest.
Comments: There are several good types in this race, but when all is said and done, Bassett is the class runner with the proof on the board. Most importantly, he is well weighted here and maps to get lengths on the rest of the field heading into the straight leading on a rail I believe will be well suited to leaders today. The price is far over my rated price.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Bassett for 3.5 units @ $4.80
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – Armanasco Stakes
1. Pasadena Girl: A very frustrating horse to back. Last prep she ran top five over 1200m to 2500m and started $5.50 or less each start, never getting within 1.5L of a win but never really running poorly She has a Group 1 on her record. 2 runs at track for 0 places and 2 runs at distance for 0 places in the past… but I do think she is proven to be well suited by the distance and Barrier 6 means she should have every possible chance if good enough.
2. The Grey Flash: Group 3 winner as a 2YO over in Adelaide. Next two preps failed to go close to a place. Hard to have.
3. Bengal Cat: After beating El Greco once over 1400m at Flemington she really went backwards. Last prep was very poor. D Oliver onboard today. Has the ability to win, but barrier is certainly against.
4. Mossin’ Around: No disgrace in defeat last start 2nd to Risque who for mine is heading towards an Oaks win up in Sydney. She has the ability to run well, but there is certainly a question this deep into the prep over if she really is wanting the 1400m for mine as she has failed to run out the final 100m the last three starts for mine in comparison to winners. A key chance.
5. Cana: Should be leading them around today from the better barrier. Should get a softer run than the previous starts and looks well suited today. Respect.
6. Alaskan Rose: Had her chances first up. Hasn’t put in a good run since she was on a Soft track here a long time ago last prep. Has to find much more.
7. Egypt: Requires the whip to get home well. Looked nice last start when got the required run and just missed at Flemington. Fit enough here and can run well. Barrier is an issue though. Will be a long way back.
8. Catch A Fire: Maiden only winner. Best runs in past a step below this. Has to show more than we have seen too date and barrier doesn’t help.
9. Purrpussful: Failed to get a win past BM-64 grade this prep. Hard to see her getting the win over this lot.
10. Smokin’ Bella: Nice enough type but 2YO form and all runs this prep suggest she is at least a step below the best of them.
11. Miss Wilson: Measured up over in NZ as a 2YO. Two runs this prep have failed to fire though.
12. Let Her Rip: NZ import first up in AUS. 3YO winner on a soft track over in NZ and 3L off Risque over 1600m in a 3YO Group 1. Keep safe.
13. Smokin’ Valentina: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: A race filled with non-winners, up and comers and those that are proven. Cana is the standout for mine, leading and will be hard to run down. Sectionals suggest Cana is a tough horse and will be suited by a medium tempo which will make it very hard for those behind to get past.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Cana E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1800m – Ladbrokes Caulfield Autumn Classic
1. Mahuta: Won six in a row. Questionable if the hose will stay a strong 1800m and it’s a big ask straight up to 1800m from 1400m today. Has the ability.
2. Flying Light: Looked a nice type going around in similar grade early in this prep and ran okay. Back to BM-70/78 grades running well then last start in 3YO grade ran well to win last start. Does have to improve but clearly has ability. Barrier hurts to get a good spot on speed without spending a bit early.
3. Ayers Rock: Loves the whip. 3YO-LR winner over Tivaci last prep at FLemington over 1800m. Best on speed with a pace set. Right distance here. Best runs later into prep last prep the only issue.
4. Extra Choice: Probably just ignore the first up run? Never suited over 1400m and based on previous preps will find his very best over further. Won a decent enough race over 2200m last prep. Has to improve.
5. Patch Adams: Been given two runs to come into it this prep and is going the right way about it. Ran Mahuta to 0.3L last prep. Barrier means he will get the desired charmed run and has the turn of foot required to be ridden for luck. Looks much better suited here.
6. Celtic Tiger: Very average run first up. Only win last prep was okay but needs to improve on that to beat these.
7. Hardern: Not the worst run last start at Caulfield behind Mahuta but clearly has to improve on what he showed. Questions of his ability measuring up here.
8. Tally: Two runs for two wins this prep. Can only do what you do! 7 length winner last prep in his maiden and ran 3.5L off Jameka over 2040 in a Group 2 race which is fairly good form. Maps very well today and looks a very good chance.
9. Top Ravine: Continues to run well this prep putting two wins together. Huge throw at the stumps and I have to take him on here.
10. Hoplites: Had his chance last start but Tally was just simply too good. Poorly weighted here.
11. Charlevoix: Looked a nice maiden win first run at Sandown. Good talk around for him but I couldn’t take the odds here today.
12. Prior Engagement: Maiden only winner. Didn’t blow me away on his runs. Has to improve. That being said he does look overs at the price.
13. Powderworks: Weir runner. Every chance last start. Has to improve.
Comments: With Mahuta expected to come out, I have my eye on Tally here as clear top pick while Patch Adams will improve significantly today ridden quieter.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tally for 2 units to win @ $3.00. Patch Adams for 0.5 units to win @ $8.00.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1800m – Peter Young Stakes
1. Fawkner: Last prep won first up in WFA-G1 conditions and second up 0.1L off them. Ran nicely enough first up from out the back from a horrible barrier. Another awkward barrier today will make it hard for him, but he is good enough and loves this track and distance.
2. Happy Trails: He ran home very well first up over 1400m. Up to 1800m today where I believe he is most effective. 0.5L off Criterion last prep in WFA-G1 over 2000m. Barrier 2, will get a nice position and run well.
3. Mourinho: Kicked before the race last start and ran accordingly. Up to 1800m but a run short compared to others here. Will get over from the barrier.
4. Our Ivanhowe: A horse that requires a position in running off the rail to get a full run into it. This is far too short for his very best and the barrier is against him.
5. Messene: Every chance first up and ran poorly. Hasn’t won in two preps for good reason, just not up to this grade. First run ever over 1800m.
6. Lidari: Good return last prep when 2nd to Signoff and won after Signoff tested positive. 1800m today and can run well again. Does need to improve again though.
7. Almoonqith: Last start winner over 3200m. Won last prep over 2400m… but this is far too short to see his very best from this barrier. Needs the run heading into prep. Never won first up.
8. Bow Creek: Slowly away and then blocked for runs in straight taking away any chance he had. Up to 1800m which is stretching beyond his very best distance of 1600m, he hasn’t won since 2014 we have to remember… i personally think he is a very good type and he showed that with the close 2nd to Turn Me Loose at Moonee Valley last prep, but he needs to jump well today as well as doing everything right.
9. He or She: Massive jump up in class here. He is a really good sort and his best is seen over similar distances. He looks rock hard fit and ready for this, but I couldn’t suggest the win.
10. Awesome Rock: Out the back from the wide barrier last start and wasn’t the worst run ever. Bad barrier again, back up to 1800m can run better. Strangely a place chance on form.
11. Don Doremo: An out and out stayer. Needs further.
12. Rising Romance: Out the back first up. Up to 1800m more suitable for her but will find it rough again today to get a good spot in running from the barrier. Clearly has the ability to win.
13. Fenway: Blocked for runs last start, she ran nicely first up. Yet to progress beyond her own sex’s grades and measuring up, but she does look a nice type. 3 runs 0 places at track a concern. D Oliver jumps off. Has to be said, would have gone close if she got a run last start. Maps very well.
14. Do You Remember: Group 1 winner as a 3YO over in South Africa over 2000m. Not the worst run to finish last prep when 3rd behind Who Shot TheBarman over 2400m. Couldn’t suggest the win though on form.
Comments: I look at all the horses in single figures and all I could consider backing is Fenway while at double figures Happy Trails it eh value. Not overly confident here. Do think Fenway maps to win and last start suggested she was going well enough.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Fenway to win. Also back Happy Trails to win.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Futurity Stakes
1. Boban: In the world of racing where Sydney vs Melbourne is the key rivalry, Boban is one of those horses that fits the bill for me in the ‘I hope it loses’ bracket. Noting this, I’m very keen on his chances today in a race where he will most likely only find about 7 runners infront of him heading into the straight compared to last start when there was 14! He ran VERY well last start and looks much better suited second up here today with the speed expected to be on.
2. Rebel Dane: He continues to run great races without winning. His best runs clearly in the past have been over 1200m and the 1400m is a stretch, but he can run well again, I just can’t see the win.
3. Turn Me Loose: Good first up run this prep and will be much fitter today. Example is last prep when he took a few runs to hit his very best form. Based on last prep he may still need the run today to turn him onto 100% for next start, but he will be 95% at least which is more than enough for a horse of his quality to win.
4. Hucklebuck: Nice enough run last start from off the speed. Will be closer to the speed today and more of a chance. Has the sectionals.
5. Trust in a Gust: Wide the race but very disappointing the way he finished off for mine. Has to improve on what we have seen this prep to measure up here and win.
6. Stratum Star: WFA-G1 3rd to Boban last prep at course and distance. Went on to win a Group 3 over 2000m. Nice enough run first up but clearly has to improve.
7. Entirely Platnium: Fell out of it poorly first up. Hard to have on form to date. Non-winner.
8. Scissor Kick: Sydney runner who hasn’t been seen since turning 4. Hard to see the progression first up after so long off but did run 1L off Dissident and 1.5L off Hallowed Crown over 1400m.
9. The United States: Open class winner over 1500m. Best runs over further. Not here.
10. Suavito: Hard to fault what she did last start. Got a good spot in running, sat, sprinted, won. Maps well again today.
11. Politeness: Very disappointing run first up over 1100m. Up to 1400m and looks to be needed. Found best over 1600m last prep deeper into prep.
Comments: Four clear standouts for mine here in Turn Me Loose, Boban, Huckelbuck and Suavito. I actually really like the chances of Boban today to bounce back in a smaller field… but I really don’t see a hell of a lot of value in the prices of any runners. I do think Boban E/W is backable at the price, but only just.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 10, 11
Strategy: Boban E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Blue Diamond Stakes
1. Extreme Choice: Two runs to date for two strong wins. Times very sound overall also. The issue is if he is really wanting the 1200m and that is why D Oliver jumped off for mine. Personally I’m not 100% convinced that’s the best reason to jump off the horse, but when you add in barrier 13 and the fact the yard have all but ruled out pushing on for the lead, I’m expecting them to have to ride him three-wide the trip which is a big negative for a horse with such distance queries. Is he good enough to win? Hell yes. Would I have been tipping him from barrier 2 to 6? I would have had him very much in the mix more than I do now. I would probably need around $3.70 on current ratings to be on him.
2. Valliano: What exactly has he done wrong to be a $34 chance? Will have improvement from last start to come and certainly gets the 1200m with little issues. Good barrier and a nice early speed means he will get a nice enough spot in run. My only issue is if this horse is a genuine top class Group 1 horse. Has to prove it today. Certainly over the correct odds.
3. Flying Artie: Massive win first up coming from wide and back to run down some decent types including Star Turn. Barrier 17 has made Damien Oliver’s job a hell of a lot harder and markets have reacted by pushing his price well out in the markets. There’s every chance Oliver may try a Jump slowly tactic, move to the rails and try and get a 5-6 back spot and ride for luck.. or he may believe he has the very best horse in the race and try and sustain the 4-5 wide run from the 400m. This bloke is top class and a potential Group 1 winner in the making, but there is a lot against him.
4. Star Turn: Every chance last start in the Blue Diamond Prelude and looked home for all money until Flying Artie came over the top. Drawn fairly in barrier 10 today and we can expect him to be one of the 4-5 fighting for a leading position. Tempo will be much stronger than last start that’s for sure and he won’t get any favours.
5. Power Trip: Looked a very good type in his first prep. Two runs this prep have not even been close to good enough to suggest a win or even place here. Has to improve significantly.
6. Highland Beat: Always been a word around about this horse after his first win at Moonee Valley, but the sectionals just weren’t top class. On last start run a place looks to be the very best option.
7. Hell of an Effort: The value of the race, he proved to be a good sort winning his first two races at Geelong and then Caulfield. Has the turn of foot in the early stables to get a solid position in running. He started favourite last start for a good reason and we know why. Just ignore that run, something was clearly wrong that day after leaving the barriers awkwardly, the horse never wanted to go. There are about 10 runners that can ‘run well’ but aren’t a chance of winning. His best runs are good enough to compete for a win here.
8. Hey Doc: Continues to run well in top class races. Last start ran on well enough but lacked the sectionals to really get the job done. Better barrier today.. i still think he has to improve significantly on the last two runs to be going close to beating all of these today.
9. China Dream: Thought his run last start was quite good, but clearly Flying Artie is the best thing to come out of that race and China Dream will need to find lengths.
10. Samara Dancer: Two runs two wins. Last start was given a brilliant ride and did everything right to take the win and land the plunge. Did bleed that run which is a bit of a concern. Perfect barrier in 5 today, but there is certainly a query over just how far back she will get having not shown a massive amount of early speed in her two runs to date. Can win.
11. Concealer: Very good type. She looked the real deal and times suggested it first prep at Flemington. Slow away first up this prep and was a sectional star. Drawn very well. As long as she jumps better today (have to believe she has it right) then she is a HUGE chance for mine. Top pick.
12. Sweet Sherry: Looked a nice enough type winning in her first prep at Flemington, but the horse hasn’t measured up this prep. Ran home okay enough first up from the back, but not enough to convince me of a win especially from barrier 16.
13. Kinetic Design: Horrible barrier. Hasn’t won a race to date. All that being said, looked a very good type in first prep. Was traveling quite well last start in the Prelude when never got a run. There are horses in this race I know can’t win at half this horses odds. On the runs to date and the unknown from last start, I have to consider the horse a chance and I know the horse goes best when allowed to wind up, so the wide barrier doesn’t bother me as much as it should for others.
14. Zamzam: Ran home just okay for mine last start at Caulfield. Previous run at Moonee Valley was a nice win on a soft track. Certainly has to improve on from what I’ve seen to date. Barrier helps.
15. Miss Nymeria: Loved her two runs to date. Sectional star both runs. Finally drawn a perfect gate today. Have to expect they will decide to push her strongly out of the barriers to get a position midfield at worst and ride her appropriately. Can win.
16. Areti: I liked the run last start at Moonee Valley from just off the speed… peeled around them and won with authority. The sectionals just don’t suggest she is a top class horse though and I’m on her in the futures after the run.
17. Selenia: A bit unlucky to be emergency today. Two runs this prep from on speed positions she ran very well both times. Can run well again here but won’t be winning.
18. Seaburge: Ran on Wednesday so doubtful of running even if gets a run. Probably the biggest unknown factor of the races. Certainly doesn’t look anything special on the first up run, but they wouldn’t be trying to run here without thinking he is a live chance.
19. Revolving Door: Ran on Wednesday so doubtful of running even if gets a run. Nice enough first ever run when 4th to Flying Artie. Improving type. Place at best for mine though.
Comments: The Blue Diamond Stakes is one of my favourite races of the year. Since Reward for Effort won at double figure odds in 2009, all winners since have started $10 or less, cementing the Blue Diamond as a ‘favourites’ race. While my form this year suggests the favourites are clearly the horses to beat, there are two to three runners at large odds that are genuine contenders and can win thanks to favourable barrier draws. This race was absolutely thrown on it’s head by the barrier draw. If Flying Artie and Extreme Choice drew barriers 2-8, it would be a brave person who would have tipped against either of them taking out the race. But thankfully for us, this hasn’t occurred and they both start from the car park in 11 and 15. Let’s get into the form and as always, i hope yours matches up with mine!
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 10, 11, 13, 15
Verdict
The Blue Diamond is known for being a race with a breakneck pace where the very best 2YO out sprints the rest of them. On the potential leaders in the race today, if Extreme Choice doesn’t lead them around, I can’t see a horse that actually wants to put that speed on today and I get the feeling we are in for a medium pace. I would be surprised if the winner didn’t come out of my Top or High chances category in this race, and it would be a first for me in feature races if the winner wasn’t found in the Top, High or Medium chances. Barriers are critical for winning these races and Concealer as the barrier to match the form lines. Hell of an Effort is the massive value in the race when we ignore the last start run and rate on the previous run. Kinetic Design is the outsider of the field today, but on previous form lines and the last start run not telling us much, I think KD has to be considered a live chance.
Top Pick: Concealer
Value Pick: Hell of an Effort
Top Chances
1. Extreme Choice
3. Flying Artie
11. Concealer
High Chances
7. Hell of an Effort
10. Samara Dancer
15. Miss Nymeria
Medium Chances
2. Valliano
4. Star Turn
6. Highland Beat
9. China Dream
13. Kinetic Design
14. Zamzam
Low Chances
5. Power Trip
8. Hey Doc
12. Sweet Sherry
16. Areti
19. Revolving Door
Minimal Chances
17. Selenia
18. Seaburge
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Oakleigh Plate
1. Flamberge: A massive price being bet today for this Group 1 winner. Yes, I repeat, GROUP 1 WINNER. Previous prep he ran Chautauqua to 0.2L. Last prep ran Buffering to 1.8L. Last prep ran Chautauqua to 1.5L. This is a serious horse. He will push forward to be on speed from the wide barrier, but there’s no issues… he goes well here and he is huge odds.
2. Dothraki: Always runs well but hardly ever gets the chocolates. Last prep got a Listed win and 1L 3rd in Group 2 company. Barrier hurts big time today though. Has to improve to win in this grade.
3. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: WFA-G1 3rd to Buffering last prep. 2.3L off Chautauqua. Never won at the top level is a big issue and has won just 1 of last 12 runs. Goes okay at track and maps well from barrier.
4. Smokin’ Joey: Old mate seems to never run poorly. 1400m looked his best but two preps back got a WFA-G3 win over 1200m at course. Breathing issues last prep and a 8YO… bad gate.
5. Eclair Choice: Very disappointing run first up. Hard to see him overturning the positions on Heatherly off both their runs and weights today.
7. Bounding: 4L group 3 winner first up last prep when flying, but then failed next start as a well backed favourite to Catkins who then failed the rest of her runs after. Group 1 winner over 1200m in New Zealand. 2Y-GP3 winner also. Group 2 2nd to Chautauqua down the Flemington straight. Has the ability.
8. Fell Swoop: Won her last four to finish last prep. Hardest field to date by a country mile. Have to be rock hard fit and 110% to beat all these. Nice barrier helps.
9. Gregers: Always fallen a step short in this grade in the past. 14 runs 0 wins. Group 2 3rd to Churchill Dancer her very best and that’s well below grade. 2L off Flamberge in Group 1. 2.5L off Stratum Star in Group 1.
10. Kuro: Another runner that promises a lot and hardly ever delivers with a load of 2nds on his record. AWkward barrier.
11. The Quarterback: Respect for this guy who never runs a bad race when he is on. Best runs in open/listed class.
12. Atmospherical: First up run as favourite found sweet f all to give. Best runs not good enough to win here.
13. Griante: 52kg. Ran Buffering to 1.3L in WFA-G1. Previous to that ran Politeness to 0.2L in M-GP3 grade. Goes only fairly firs tup but her very best is good enough.
14. Pittsburgh Flyer: Finished last prep with a win on heavy down the Flemington straight. Much dryer today than that. Best runs in the past need to improve on.
15. Vezalay: Always runs well but hardly ever wins. Won twice last prep in FM-LR and Mares grade. Another step up here. Barrier is horrible.
16. Heatherly: Hard to dispute how beautiful her win was last start. Almighty Girl has franked the form of two back run also. Bottom weight. Suited.
18. Keen Array: Just how good is he? Japonisme proved to be very good which helps suggest his runs were very nice. Mahahibb failed overnight and i’m not convinced the Mogador form will measure up to the top grade. I think he is good but I couldn’t be confident backing him here at the price.
19. Reldas: Very disappointing run last start. Barrier gives very little chance. Couldn’t have.
Comments: Wide open race. Flamberge is a HUGE price today and I cannot let that slip past! Sure, Heatherly will be hard to beat, but I’ll take the Group 1 proven form at these odds every day.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 7, 13, 16, 18
Strategy: Flamberge for 0.75 units @ $31/$8.50 Each-Way.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Mannerism Stakes
1. Miss Rose de Lago: I have a big opinion of this mare. Goes very well first up and looks well suited at course and distance in this grade. Has won 3 times at this track from 3 runs in the past. Won’t get an easy lead today but best runs are when she goes out the front and puts the speed on. Opie knows.
2. Wawail: Had her chances first up at course over 1200m when beaten by a nice type in Tuscan Sling. Similar weight today. Goes well at course and this distance.
3. Tuscan Sling: Up 1kg today after a strong win at course over 1200m. First run ever 1400m and should get it no issues… but this is 11 runs in and never gone over distance for a reason.
4. Choose: On speed just missed last start when 3rd at course over 1200m. Up to 1400m suits. Can run well again.
5. Fast Approaching: Won 2 and ran 2nd twice in last 4 runs. Much harder this. Not for mine from barrier.
6. Anaphora: Just got the win to finish last ‘prep’ in January. Had a freshen up.. much harder race. Continues to run well and go close or just win.
8. My Sister Lil: Didn’t find much at all first up for the new yard. Group 3 2nd to Real Love on record but hasn’t shown close to that since.
9. Mossbeat: Always runs a nice race. First up a little disappointing in Tassy when 4th to Nautical. Has to improve.
10. Azkadellia: Got back came home well and run finished 100m out. Up to 1400m more suitable for her style of running. 3rd in Group 1 last prep.
11. Samartested: Loves to run well without winning. Last start well backed and just missed 4th by 0.5L. Blocked for run at critical stage. Has to improve.
12. Distant Dreams: Looking for further and looking for an easier race for mine based on previous runs.
13. Felicienne: Well beaten last start. Looks outclassed here.
14. Amarela: Not in this off previous runs. First up showed nothing.
Comments: The price today on Miss Rose De Lago is well wrong, but I also can’t bring myself to bet against Tuscan Sling or Azkadellia here. Happy to just watch the last.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Miss Rose de Lago E/W
