Happy Australia Day and welcome to The Profits form guide for 26 January 2016 at Caulfield. Our most confident bet of the year got up on the weekend which is always a bonus, and even though we had a great day tipping wise, it was disappointing to only get second with Volcanic Ash in the last of the day. Another day and another race or two with confident bets and there are two standouts on the card here at Caulfield. I’m quite bullish on the Quaddie today, we have gone wide but i think we will find at least one very strong blowout in the races.. if not two providing us with value! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Profit Share for 2.5 units @ $3.80. Bass Strait for 1.75 units @ $5
My ratings suggest a different story to the current market on offer. Radical is the short priced favourite while Bass Strait and Profit Share are 2nd and 3rd favourites. My market, as always, takes for the runs on the board, no the potential of a runner in these classy races and with that in mind, I’m very keen to take on Radical here. I think Profit Share and Bass Strait between them have the other runners covered at the weights with only Fast and Free capable of putting in a surprising run to threaten for the win. The combined odds well over $2.20 when staked correctly for these two runs gives us a very confident bet into this market, rated MUCH shorter.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Quick Strike for 3 units @ $3.20 to win.
I was very impressed by this runners last start run and added it to my book of distance runners to follow. Surprisingly we find Quick Strike today well back in class well weighted against what looks a very average bunch of medium class in-form distance runners. A repeat of the last start run from Quick Strike will have the horse in the finish according to weights, and on my figures, passing all the other runners in a true staying test. I will also be backing Aggregator at the triple figures quote for a pretty penny due to the horse most likely going forward today.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – The Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap – 1:11PM
1. Secert Toy Bizness: Never won first up in the past. Last win was at course and distance in harder company (bm-90). Top weight for a reason. Tough task.
3. Fast Approaching: Won a very poor race last start at course and distance. Up in class here and comes in okay enough at the weights.
4. Young Nicola: Consistent t ype that always runs a solid race. Well up in class here after a solid hit out and win at Moonee Valley. Not beyond her but does have to improve.
5. Boundary: Got the win three back at Geelong in much easier company. Up in class last start at Flemington ran home very well behind Miss Softhands for 4th. 0 wins 0 places from 3 starts at this track and 0 wins 1 place from 7 starts in class.
6. Shacarde: Nice enough win two back at Geelong and went up in class last start and ran home well at Sandown when lost a plate from on speed 2nd to Miss Softhands. Nice type and should take a sit here.
7. Baby Don’t Cry: Every chance last start at course and distance behind Fast Approaching… has to improve on that run for mine to measure up here.
8. Honfleurs: Won just 2 from 22 and Never won in this class. 6 runs this prep and been there or there abouts but hasn’t won this prep.
Comments: I rubbed my hands at a decently rated race to start the day with just 7 runners, but this race is very hard to pick. Only way i could approach this would be to back Secret Toy Bizness, a horse that has measured up at course and distance in harder company, to place.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Secret Toy Bizness to place @ $7.50.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1700m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Final – 1:46PM
1. Bass Strait: Missed the start behind Saqada last start at Caulfield. Up in weight today but still well enough in at the weights. Small field and will have every chance to have the final shot at them.
2. Tuscan Fire: Not the worst run first up but certainly didn’t have the turn of foot heading towards a Hurdles campaign.
3. Sadaqa: 51kg and slow speed on out the front last start at course and similar distance and got the win. Well up in weights here today and equally as hard race. Maps to get the lead with Commanding Time.
4. Profit Share: Very well placed type who continues to improve each run in this prep. Back to a firmer track, he only just saw out the 1700m last start at the Bool on the soft. Very well placed here.
5. Fast and Free: Very disappointing last start up in class at course and distance. Fairly weighted today against others from that race but barrier 1, going back and needs to improve on that run.
6. Commanding Time: On speed last start finished off poorly. Looking for a harder tempo and further i’d imagine. Hasn’t won in a long time!
8. Radical: Well backed last start to beat Tashbeeh with 53kg and just missed at course and similar distance. Up in weight and up in class here. From out the back will have to get going early and improve on last start.
Comments: Keen to take on the favourite today in Radical with the next two in the market. This is a race of proven types (Profit Share/Bass Strait) against the up and comer (Radical) who hasn’t got a run on the board in this class just yet.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Profit Share for 2.5 units @ $3.80. Bass Strait for 1.75 units @ $5.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) – 2:21PM
1. Dalradian: Should settle just off the speed from barrier 4. Looked a good type in first prep when winning a maiden and progressing on to win at Moonee Valley beating 13 other rivals. Didn’t handle the wet track the last start of the campaign. Expect a bold run.
2. Power Trip: Nice time down the straight first up on the soft track. Looks the real deal and will be on speed from the barrier. Williams jumps off for another is something hard to understand here… must be good!
3. Bullion Wolf: Beat all that was put before him over in Adelaide but those were small # races. Has to obviously improve to measure up here.
4. Moshway: Yet to win from 3 starts. Last start down the straight measured up well enough to suggest could have a win around the corner.
5. Cohesion: Very well backed first up at Randwick but failed to pull a punch. Short in market due to stable, not form.
6. Quiet Order: Jumped poorly and didn’t exactly run on well enough first up to suggest a win here.
7. Capannello: Market only guide.
8. Cha Chang: Unplaced in trial first up. Probably needs the run?
9. El Venetian: Well beaten in trial but money has come for him in betting.
10. Hay Bale: Market only guide. D Oliver takes the ride a fair indication also.
11. Kafoo: Won his trial nicely enough at Sandown. Surprised by the price on offer compared to a few others.
14. Weatherly: Huge word out for this horse being a very good type. Williams jumps off Power Trip to ride him here from barrier 1.
Comments: Can never be confident in this type of race. Power Trip is proven and looks a very good price from the positive barrier for a place.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Power Trip to place.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies) – 2:56PM
1. The Seductress: Last start at course and distance proved her quality with a very nice win. Horror barrier today hurts her chances but if she is good enough to win the Blue Diamond, the barrier won’t matter today.
2. Pearl Congenial: Two runs to date in 2YO grade and ran very respectable races in both, but found at least one too good both runs with no real excuses. Horrible barrier doesn’t help her cause today. Has to have improved.
3. Want to Rock: Straight course win in decent time first up down the straight. Form stable. Looks the real deal. Has the early speed required to cross field.
4. La Renarde: Nice barrier today helps chances big time. Had every chance to pass Want to Rock last start… but will get an easier run from barrier today. Respect talent.
5. Extra Olives: Fair enough win in maiden grade first up.. big step up here but yard rarely wrong with these types. Well bred.
6. Sword of Light: Did a lot wrong first up at Echuca and destroyed the field. Looks handy.
7. Emphatically: Showed class in first prep just missing at Sandown behind Jackson who went on to win again. Nice type but has to improve.
8. Motown Lil: Two decent runs last prep and showed ability. Has to have gone on with it to measure up here.
9. She’s Going Off: Couldn’t win a maiden last start at Geelong and poor barrier. Struggle.
10. Dazzy’s Day: Market only guide.
11. Divertente: Market only guide.
14. Savvy Belle: Market only guide.
15. Selenia: Market only guide.
16. Vuitton: Average/poor trial heading in but has been a little
17. Dream First: Market only guide.
19. Bridgy Lass: Market only guide.
20. Miss Nymeria: Market only guide.
Comments: Wide open race. La Renarde will get the run of the race from the inside barrier and looks the one to beat.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: La Renarde E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1600m – MyPunter.Com Handicap – 3:31PM
1. Kracken: Got the win in 3YO grade three runs back then failed to place up in open class the next two. Back to 3YO grade, have to consider on the 3 and 4 runs back form.
2. Tempered: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield in open class. Won previous start in 3YO-64 grade over distance leading off a slow tempo at Sandown. Leader on paper.
3. Praecereus: Won his maiden beating Septamore who has then gone on with it as well… lame last start in harder class in open company when a $4.80 2nd favourite. Forgive that run and rate on previous best form here… back to 1600m ideal. Should get over and on speed without issues.
4. Crediton: Average 3YO win first up. D Oliver keeps the ride. Will be going back.
5. Hardern: Step up in class. Maiden only winner. Going okay but not sure I could back here.
6. Hetuka Zarsho: Maiden only winner. Runs coming in were only average apart from last start as favourite in BM-64 grade when found one too good who then hasn’t measured up in town in harder. Has to improve.
7. Broadway Danza: Went okay as a 2YO on wetter tracks. Nice enough maiden win at Bairnsdale but last start well beaten at Sandown.
8. Makatiti: Did a lot wrong racing manners wise last start at Sandown. Ran nicely enough and can improve on that.
9. Chabaud: Not sure what to make of her. Maiden winner… close 2nd in 2YOF race at Geelong on heavy… well backed last two starts and well beaten both starts. Similar grade here… no excuses.
10. Girl’s Got Stars: Maiden winner two back.. was an okay win from the back – speed was on. Disappointing last start at Cranbourne. Forgive that run.. has ability.
Comments: Not the easiest race to predict on paper, but i’ve got a fair lean towards the Moody runner in Praecereus at the price on offer.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Praecereus E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 2406m – TheShark.Com.Au Plate – 4:10PM
1. Quick Strike: Got the distance last start at Flemington when simply outstayed by Lucques who got the run of the race and was weighted to win. Well back in class, top weight in 60kg but from barrier 7 maps very well all things considered and will get a charmed run. Looks the horse to beat.
2. Swacadelic: Toughed out a 2040m win over Danjeu three back but then to mine didn’t get the 2400m two back at Sandown and the same occurred over 2800m at Flemington. Right on his limit for mine and at the weights, a take on.
3. Bajour: Got the dream run last start at Sandown from out the back and just got home. This is MUCH harder today and gets in at similar weights. Will need luck today to win for mine.
4. Packing Empire: Consistent type that continues to run well in and around this class. Last win was over 3000m. Up in class and down to 54.5kg.. has the ability to measure up but will need everything to go perfectly his way, especially from the barrier.
5. Aggregator: 10 runs for 0 wins in this class in the past. First two runs in this prep were very much below par. Went close last prep over this course and distance at Bendigo when ridden more on speed.
6. All I Survey: Ran poorly last start at Sandown behind Bajour from an on speed position. Step up in class again hard to see based on previous runs form.
8. Speed Gonzales: Not 100% convinced this horse is wanting the distance today. Three back when won well at Sandown showed a great turn of foot beating a form horse in Yulong Baby but up in distance the last two starts has found a few too good. Can win, but I can’t see the value in the price.
9. Life O’Brien: Well beaten his last two runs including last start when Bajour sprinted straight past him. Three back run was a good win.
10. Lord Ore: Couldn’t place in BM-64 or BM-70 grade this prep. Up to this distance obviously suits going forward, but I struggle to suggest it on current form.
11. Nippinski: Ambulence is $1.10 favourite to beat it home in head-to-head markets. Horse should received a ban from city class after this run.
Comments: Very keen on Quick Strike coming off the sensational last start run at Flemington. Very well weighted against this lot in my humble opinion and maps for an ideal run just off the speed. At $101-1, Aggregator is well over it’s true odds and will be backed also.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Quick Strike for 3 units @ $3.20. 0.1 unit Aggregator @ $101.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – John Dillon Stakes – 4:50PM
1. Amorino: Has probably the largest turn of foot of any runners in this race today. Will be ridden for luck from the barrier and if he gets his splits late then he will be well suited. The slower the tempo the better for him.
2. Durendal: Won three in a row including a Group 3 race last start at Flemington and an Open race before that. Up to 57.5kg, still looks very well in at the weights here. Barrier 1 only concern in getting a run off the rail when it counts.
3. Tried and Tired: Every chance to run right past Tudor last start at Flemington but failed to do so. Goes okay at this track and gets a 2kg swing on Tudor for 0.5L.
5. Mighty Like: Not the worst run last start in easier company at Caulfie.d Up in distance suitable but has to improve to place here.
6. Tudor: On speed dominated day at Flemington and he just kept going to finally break through for a top class win. 6 runs for 0 places at this track in the past says a lot. Will lead but poorly weighted today.
7. Baligari: Down from the gold coast, he ran fairly up there with a 5th and 3rd… well beaten by Lucky Hussler though. Has ability and has to be considered with runs behind Lord Aspen and Karacatis over in Adelaide.
8. Nicoscene: Ran home nicely at course over 1200m when 2nd to Duke of Brunswick but was certainly no match for that talent. Meets the Duke 2kg better off at the weights today and maps to get a nice spot from the barrier. Will get a better run in passage than the Duke today will. Has to be considered… just not sure if the 1400m is ideal?
9. Taddei Tondo: Consistent type. Ran fairly behind Nicoscene and Duke of Brunswick last start. Well down in the weights getting 3.5kg on Duke and 1.5kg on Nicoscene. Horrible barrier and will be dead last in running you would imagine. Need luck.
10. Whistle Baby: Never won in this class previously and 1 place from 6 starts at track a big issue for this talented mare. Best runs are certainly good enough with a Mares grade win on record.
11. Duke of Brunswick: Devastating win last start at Caulfield. Was no doubt his best win on record. Failed to grind down Volcanic Ash two back at Caulfield over the 1400m. 7 runs at distance for 1 win 6 places says alot for mine… but last two runs were a 1st (beat Volcanic Ash by 0.1L and then a 0.1L defeat to Volcanic Ash). Massive issues with the barrier today… will be hard to get a good spot in running.
12. Mister Milton: Old mate.. ran very well last start for 4th.. but not winning this!
13. Judges: Well backed into favourite strangely last start at Flemington. Huge jump in class. No thanks.
Comments: Duke of Brusnwick is going the right way but looks unders at the price from the barrier with Hall onboard… well unders. Amorino and Nicoscene bring value to the race but all signs point to Durendal winning with the right run.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Durendal to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – The Cove Hotel Handicap – 5.30PM
1. Flyingconi: Will be out the back as always today. Best runs are generally later into preps and has been a while between wins and even further between a win over this distance. Would surprise first up at the weights as a 8YO.
2. Boomwaa: Down the straight at Flemington last start, ran better than expected for a good 2nd… winner came from off the speed with a huge turn of foot. Will be leading this around with pace along with Charles in Charge.
3. Charles in Charge: A while between wins for this bloke.. his last win was at course and distance in this grade. Will be on speed and will have every chance if good enough.
4. Tansy: Disappointing run last start at Flemington up in class. Two back run was good enough to measure up here even with the 60kg. Difficult barrier.
6. Stong Hand: Very good horse last prep winning 4 of 7 runs including one in this grade. Failed the last run of the prep when pulled up lame. Best runs were over further.. can win but need to be at his best.
7. Master Sommelier: Found nothing last start at Flemington down the straight. Previous two runs were solid enough to suggest a nice run today.. but has to return to form.
8. We’re Got This: Failed at a favourite last start at Flemington.. had to have been something wrong based on that run… may just not have handled the 1400m fast tempo. Back to 1200m today and has to be respected off a 2nd to Burning Front on the form. Barrier is key to getting a nice run.
9. Rock ‘N’ Gold: Disappointing run last start at Geelong when out the back after jumping poorly. Form lines hard to ignore and back to 1200m obviously helps. A chance.
11. Excitement: First up today, Never won in this grade in the past. Best runs last prep over further.. but has won over 1000m and up in previous prep also.
13. Satya: 1.3L off Politeness 2nd up last prep over 1200m at course from the back is very hard to ignore form wise… then 2.3L 9th the next start. Well back in class and very well in at the weights from the barrier. Can see why she is so short in betting.. is beatable but hard to oppose.
Comments: Hard to oppose the favourite here in the last on form. Do think there are a few runners have a chance at odds and we are going a little wider in the Quaddie to end off the day.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Satya to win.
