Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 26 December 2016. I hope you all enjoyed your Christmas with friends, family and a few beers. We start to get even more serious heading into the Boxing Day racing with the New Year just in our sights. Our tips on the 24th went very well with a close loss 2nd to our best bet and our best value going around at $15s running 2nd. It wasn’t the full result, but i’m happy we were on the horses at the right prices. Today there are a few standouts on a Caulfield track i’m expecting to be rock hard throughout the day. This should see the leaders have every possible chance while I doubt they will be winning from further back than midfield on the expected track. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Lady Selkirk for 3.5 units @ $3.00
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Very Choosey – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5/$2
Other Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Movie for 1.5 units @ $4.6 to win. Atlantic Express for 0.5 units @ $14 to win.
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – The New Boy – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $12/$3.80
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 8
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Joe Brown
1. Invincible Al: Strong run 0.1L 2nd on Saturday at Sandown when should have won. Jockey change (believe due to track not due to the bad ride on Saturday) and looks very well in here if Paddy decides to back him up off a very short break. Very best in the past has been over the 1000m.
2. Empior: Very solid form lines this Godolphin runner with two starts for two wins in country grade races. Back to his own age level and back to the city for the first time. Has to be respected.
3. Hellbound: Big run first up but shown nothing the next two starts at Moonee Valley or Flemington. Hard to suggest the improvement on the last two starts.
4. Power Up Rise: Good maiden win two back at Moonee Valley when beat a nice type in Fast Tycoon. Last start fairly beaten down the straight a concern.
5. Oak Door: Will be pushing forward from the wide barrier. Ran well 2L 3rd behind Khaki down the straight at Flemington. Harder company but certainly has the ability to win this one.
6. Ridgway: Beaten favourite on Friday night in Maiden grade. Back to 1200m today and clearly shown ability in the past.
7. Alter Call: Maiden winner in a 5 horse race in average time at Werribee last start. Previous prep a good 0.5L 2nd to Selenia. Respect
8. Dollopini: 0.1L maiden winner last start at Terang. Throw at the stumps that’s hard to back.
Comments: A tough race to open the day. Does Ridgway and Invincible Al line up? Invincible Al is certainly a big chance if it does but I doubt it backs up with a 2 day turn around on another very firm track? Hellbound is certainly over the odds if it can produce a peak run, but it hasn’t gone close to that the past two starts. Alter Call looks unders to be and i’d have to side with Emptor on those I believe will line up.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Emptor to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1800m – Dennis Hanrahan BM-78
1. Carlo Bugatti: Missed the start in his last run and never got into the race. Was backed on the day also at the odds. Previous run was poor when 2nd favourite. I’m thinking he really needs a softer track than what is being offered up today… but does he win this better than 1 in 16 times based on the 2000m win last prep? Yes.
2. Temps Voleur: Doesn’t win out of turn. Last win was over 1600m on a soft track. Best run this prep was in similar grade 2nd at Sandown two back when not beating too much home. This isn’t the hardest field ever though.
3. Bondeiger: Hasn’t won in forever (late 2014) but has put in some solid runs throughout that period. Didn’t show us a lot when slow out first up over the unsuitable 1400m. Up to 1800m today where he is well suited and back to a track where he has seemed to run well in the past. Firm track no negative either. Win wouldn’t be a total shock – Weir is a genius.
4. Dodging Bullets: Strong run 2nd last start at Flemington and Aurum Spirit has franked the form well enough since for mine. Good barrier to get a spot just off the leaders and looks well suited in this grade. Should go well first time this track also.
6. Doom ‘n’ Boom: Two runs this prep having been defeated by a long distance both times. Steps up in distance today which suits but last prep he didn’t get up to this level even over this distance. Tough ask off those first two runs.
7. Ballybrit: Two wins in a row this prep at Moonee Valley in easier grade over a similar distance. Led start to finish and looks well suited here today at the weights to run it along out front.
8. Big Duke: Lightly raced 5YO that was imported in the middle of the year. Two runs since arriving over 1500m and 1600m and both have been solid runs 4th and 2nd. Castle Hackett well and truly franked the form on Saturday behind Rewarding Effort. Big Duke looks well suited here up to the 1800m and maps well for a run just off the speed.
10. Sadia: Well beaten last start behind Rewarding Effort but did run quite well that day. Previous start won over 1300m. Best is over these distances but needs to certainly show improvement.
Comments: Expecting the speed to be on as long as Temps Voleur jumps well today pushing it with BallyBrit. I think this bodes very well for Big Duke sitting just off the leaders to get around and hit the line hard. Carlo Bugatti is the one at odds I just can’t leave out after being on the first two runs – this isn’t a hard race at all class wise and if they have the horse right today it goes close.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Big Duke to win. Small bet on Carlo Bugatti also.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Allan Wicks BM-70
2. Shockaholic: Ran on Saturday so every chance they don’t run today. Was fairly plain on the day 5th well beaten 4.3L. Step down in grade again but there are some very handy types in this.
3. Plein Ciel: Germany import that has won twice in a row since arriving in the country. Making his way through the grades and up in the ratings being very well placed along the way. Looks well suited as long as the horse handles the firm track today (should be okay at race 3) and also the track is suiting those from the back.
4. Hunamosa: Two runs this prep. First up fair run 4th at Sale behind Sword of Justice on Soft before a Kyneton win on Heavy last start. Big jump in class today and back to a dry track. Has to improve.
5. Movie: Huge 6 length victory last start at Moonee Valley back to FMB-64 grade. Big jump up in grade and back to open sex class and there is no reason why she can’t go on with it today pushed forward to lead. Looks suited by the track condition also.
6. Balf’s Choice: Very solid win first up over 1400m and then too far back 2nd up defeated at Morphetville. Last start hit the line well at Flemington from out the back for a 3rd behind Electric Tribute. Going the right way about it this prep and could surprise a few here.
7. Peaky Blinders: Led and won last start at Geelong in much easier grade and not the greatest time ever. Beaten previous start at Hamilton in BM-64 grade. Clearly has to improve onwards to measure up here.
8. Royal Applause: Fairly beaten all 5 runs this prep with 4 seconds. Step up in class here and weighted fairly… she always runs a good race and will again here today. Has to improve to win.
10. Atlantic Express: Ran surprisingly well last start at Fleminton over 1400m and steps up first time to 1600m here. Always seemed to have potential but struggles to deliver her very best consistently on the track. A win wouldn’t be a total shocker if she improves onwards and she is well weighted today.
11. Folande: Couldn’t place in easier class last start and couldn’t win a CL1 the previous start. Looks outclassed here.
Comments: Happy to take the favourite on who will be out the back and running on. It’s a very good horse but I do have queries over how the backmarkers will fair today and I want to be against it at the $2 price. Movie and Atlantic Express stand out for me at the odds and i’m happy to back them both.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Movie for 1.5 units @ $4.6 to win. Atlantic Express for 0.5 units @ $14 to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – Robert Allan BM-84
1. Lyuba: Won 5 from 7 and has been well placed throughout her career. Only loses were a fail and simply finding one too good. Goes very well around this distance and comes into this having won two races well at Moonee Valley and Flemington. Fairly weighted and hard to beat.
2. Pink Perfection: Ran quite well first up behind Dance of Fontein who ran a slashing time at Sandown on Saturday. Clearly at her best is more than good enough to win this and will appreciate the extra distance here. Awkward barrier the only negative with Martin onboard.
3. Shades of Bella: First up today for the Weir stable and generally has gone well first up in the past. Has won in class before and once at the track in mares grade. Likes a good track and certainly is well in here. Will go back from the barrier.
4. Tykiato: Two starts this prep for two wins when taken on in the races both times. A slight step up in class here but the reality is that this is not much harder than last start. Enjoys a nice long straight like Caulfield has on offer and maps to go forward from the barrier and sit just off the pace. Respect.
5. Petite’s Reward: Well backed last start at Moonee Valley but found one far too good on the day. Up in the distances when she has normally been kept to shorter than this suggesting she doesn’t fully see out the 1100m. Good barrier but clearly has to improve beaten 4L by Lyuba first up.
6. Must Be Mink: First up after 6 months off. Best runs in the past have been over further and this is her first run in this class ever. Clearly has to improve and is a 6YO so I can’t see the first up win.
7. Grey Street: Failed to get a win the past 10 starts and has been very fairly beaten the past two starts. Back down in distance a throw at the stumps, but did go well four runs back at Morphetville in similar grade over 1100m. 3 starts for 3 places at this track in the past.
8. Very Choosy: Close 3rd to Lyuba last start at Flemington. Previous start close 3rd to Lyuba also at Moonee Valley. Clearly better off at the weights today and looks a main danger. Maps to be on speed and to have every possible chance.
9. Infra Dig: Every chance last start at Flemington when beaten 2 lengths to Lyuba. Down in the weights heavily today, but even the run of three back isn’t good enough to suggest a strong bet here for mine. Has to improve.
10. Lady Trickster: FMB-58 winner last start and only just snuck in. Best doesn’t get her close.
11. Little Indian: 0.5L 4th to Lyuba last start at Flemington when slowly away first up. Goes well at track and distance and looks well suited. Others slightly better weighted.
Comments: Very Choosy maps for the ideal run in transit today and is weighted to win today getting 2.5kg on Lyuba. Will be on speed and hard to get past. Other chances in the race include Pink Perfection, Tykiato and Infra Dig.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Very Choosey – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5/$2
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Ken Sturt FMB-84
1. Vital Importance: Ran well enough last start at Flemington but I was expecting a little more that day. Back to 1400m is the key today for this horse looking for a shorter distance than 1600m in my humble opinion. Good barrier and first time at Caulfield. Certainly looks well in here.
2. Lady Selkirk: Ran very well 0.9L 3rd last start behind Hijack Hussy on a day at Flemington when she loomed as the clear winner but just didn’t finish off as well as expected. This is her grand final with a week between runs and she won’t get any fitter. The barrier is the obvious concern but I can see a good ride getting her in 1 out 1 back. Big chance.
3. Not A Happy Camper: Fairly beaten significantly the last three starts. Won four back at Pakenham in a 6 horse race. Hard to suggest on current form and 0 places from 5 starts at track.
4. Expinsive: BM-70 win at Wang last start beating an average bunch of horses first up. Previous preps never got close to this grade. Obviously has to improve onwards again but it was a nice win heading into this.
5. Violent Snow: On speed last start at Mornington and fairly beaten. Was a better run than the previous two but even so wasn’t up to the grade. Has the ability but hard to suggest here on previous 3 runs.
6. Jacqui’s Joy: Very good horse two preps back but hasn’t shown anything this prep even when well backed last start at Flemington. Struggle to suggest but this is her best track and distance range.
7. Gingie: Not great first up over a similar distance in easier grade when beaten 4.3L. Never won 2nd up and needs a few more runs to measure up to this grade.
8. Easy Flyer: Big win in BM-58 grade last start at Wang. Previous starts never got close in BM-64 grade. Not a bad time overall start to finish last start but clearly this is a huge step up in class.
10. Takeover: Been up forever this prep and while she was running some very good races, her last 5 runs have been well below par to even place here. Take on.
Comments: Two clear standouts here in Vital Importance and Lady Selkirk with Expinsive and Jacqui’s Joy having minor claims. Lady Selkirk was well enough last start and while it isn’t the best jockey choice, i’m hopeful Childs can get Lady out of the barriers fast and to find a position 1 out 1 back with a very good ride.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6
Strategy: Lady Selkirk for 3.5 units @ $3.00
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Ian McLeod Christmas Stakes
1. Tonopah: First up today and has never won first up in the past. Also has never placed from 2 starts at this track. Best runs have always been on firm tracks though and Rawiller takes the ride. Never placed at distance. Needs further.
2. Dan Zephyr: Nice run 3rd last start at Pakenham behind Grande Rosso and Burning Front when ran wide during the race. Steps back to a more suitable 1200m and looks well suited having won at this course in the past. Likes it dry also. Good barrier to get on speed.
4. Grande Rosso: Strong win last start at Pakenham from a mid-field position for the Hayes stable. Failed previous start but run before a very good win at Bendigo. Steps back to 1200m the only negative but the horse seems to go best over the 1200-1400 distance range. Respect.
5. Sir Bacchus: Disappointing last start down the straight at Flemington when beaten 4L… but previous start at Moonee Valley beat Redkirk Warrior home over the 1200m in Open class. Has ability but has to improve on the last start run. Awkward barrier will see him getting far back in the run.
6. Duke of Brunswick: Old mate finished off last prep with some very good runs but only 1 win for the 6 run prep. Won two preps back first up but in easier grade of racing. Last prep found his best over 1400m and on softer tracks. Will be too firm and too tough a test first up.
7. Smart Dart: Got the win last start at Pakenham holding out Exclusive Lass in a lowish grade Open class race. Barrier 5 will see him get a nice spot in the run midfield and finishing off. Won 4 of last 6 runs.
8. Exclusive Lass: Only just beaten 0.1L last start behind Smart Dart and better off at the weights today. Never exactly gone too great at Caulfield in the past is an issue.
9. Murt the Flirt: Hard horse to catch. Very good win at course two back over the 1400m. Horrible last start beaten 3.6L at Flemington in easier grade. Clearly has to improve to measure up.
10. Lucky Liberty: Didn’t show a lot from an on speed position last start at Pakenham when fairly beaten. Back to the 1200m but has to improve onwards and upwards ridden for luck.
11. Angry Gee: Beaten by 100-1 pop My Survivor last start as 2nd favourite. Previous start beaten by Tykiato. Both in much easier grades. Doesn’t exactly enjoy winning this horse and hard to suggest.
12. I’m ABlaze: Nice horse and ran quite well 7th in similar grade over 1100m 2nd up last start. Expect to improve onwards and could run a blinder from a very good spot.
Comments: No clear standout for mine and a few horses well under the odds including Duke of Brunswick who is crazy odds on a firm track. Have to side with Dan Zephyr and I’m ABlaze at the odds.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12
Strategy: Dan Zephyr to win. Also back I’m ABlaze
Caulfield Race 7 – 1700m – Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes
1. Kenjorwood: On speed last start at Flemington where he has always had great success. Appreciated the strong tempo and finished off strongly to score on the day when well backed. Top weight today and has won 2 from 4 at this track in the past. Up to 1700m no issue and loves a firm track. Respect.
2. Master of Arts: Very good run first up 4th to Snoopy at big odds over the unsuitable 1400m. Needs further to find his very best but up to 1700m will have him well in today at the weights and on a firm track from barrier 2.
3. Dandy Gent: First up today. Last win was over much further (2400m) so certainly looks up against it in this grade first up.
4. Tristram’s Sun: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Only good run recently was 3 back in a poor form race behind Taiyoo. Hard to suggest.
5. Chill Party: Been going around over shorter distances the past two runs. Didn’t show alot behind Snoopy but well more suited over further. best is over 2000m+ but i’m not convinced he is the top class horse especially with time off between preps the last two preps.
6. Khutulun: 3 runs this prep and hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Last start was in a nice spot but didn’t finish off well enough for me to win this. Have to see her go around today.
7. Hell or Highwater: Two wins in a row and has won 4 of her last 5 races. Clearly been going great guns well placed and this is a big step up in class. Has won here at course and similar distance. Goes well on firm and maps to be on speed… but there will certainly be a speed battle today on the map.
8. In Fairness: Big win third up at Moonee Valley over the 1600m from on speed in a nice strong time with 61kg at big odds. Continues to run well and continues to be under estimated. Respect his ability he looks well in here with 54kg.. but won’t have an easy time on speed.
9. Tavi Bay: Expect it to be way too firm for her to find her best form. Two runs back was a good win but last start showed alot about her consistency.
Comments: There looks to be a load of speed in this race today and I certainly don’t want to be the horses stuck out the back. I also don’t want to be in the speed battle and feel a few will get undone today with the speed. A speedy race most suits a horse like Kenjorwood and Master of Arts.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: Back both Kenjorwood and Master of Arts
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Swettenham Stud Championship
1. Oregon Spirit: Hasn’t won since 2013!!! First up today. Last two preps has placed once in all his runs over further distances. Hard to suggest.
2. The New Boy: Disappointing run last start when wide the trip given a horrid ride. Happened the previous start also. Another terrible barrier but he maps as the leader today finally. Back in class and very well weighted over a suitable distance. Placed 8 and won 1 at this track from 16 starts. Rates to win.
3. King’s Command: Good win first up at Moonee Valley before failing to fire last start at Flemington over the 1200m. Up to 1400m where he has won 2 from 4. Awkward mapping could get caught 3-wide.
4. Spreadeagled: Very disappointing first up when well beaten over the 1200m. Up to 1400m where has won twice on the past including 2nd up last prep, but that was in an easier race than this. Has to be at his best.
5. Ozi Choice: Won two of his last three runs and only beaten 0.1L the other start. Was very good in a fast time over the 1400m at Flemington last start in a tough win. Will be on speed and hard to get past.
6. Star Fortune: Disappointing runs the past two starts after beating an easy grade of race and class first up over 1200m. I couldn’t have.
7. Our Bottino: Ended last prep winning three in a row at Pakenham on the synthetic in easier grade over 1600m. First up over 1400m and has to go to a career peak.
8. Bradman: Not the worst runs first and second up but never really close to a win. Takes a while to get into his preps. Never won at track from 5 starts.
9. Hard Call: Well beaten last start at Pakenham in harder grade behind Grande Rosso. Previous start 2.1L off Kings Command in similar grade. Inside barrier.
10. Decircles: Hasn’t won in five preps – last win was Group 3 in Jan of 2015. Horrible the past three runs. Take him on.
11. Electric Tribute: Very good win two back at Kilmore and backed that up at Flemington last start in a nice time controlling the speed out the front. Won’t get an easy time today but will sit just off the leaders and be in the finish.
12. Ma Deuce: Much better weighted today than Ozi Choice in a very competitive race. First time at the track and should run well.
14. Bob of the Head: Not the worst run last start 4th behind Smart Dart in open class. Previous starts not bad either in easier. Up to 1400m the key.
Comments: Five key chances and it all comes back to the value runners in the race at the prices. King’s Command and Ozi Choice both are sound prospects but both appear under the odds. Electric Tribute will have to do it from off the speed today which is a change and won’t suit as much as last two starts. The New Boy has won extremly well the past two starts with no luck and this looks the day where the horse will be able to take the lead and run them around on a track that should be rock hard suiting leaders.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11, 12
Strategy: The New Boy – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $12/$3.80
