Welcome to The Profits form guide for 26 December 2015 at Caulfield. After a fairly poor run of form, we took a few days off to gather our thoughts and to focus on the Boxing Day card. Unfortunately, we have been given one of the most difficult days of the year with 8-20mm of rain expected, making the surface conditions unknown. With that in mind, we have chosen specifically horses that will handle the expected track conditions who don’t mind it a little dryer or wetter than what we have as our guide for the track. Looking forward to a great day of racing and a few winners. I hope you had a Merry Christmas! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5
Celeritas for 3 units @ $3.50
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3
Yellen for 3 units @ $3.50.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 10
Duke of Brunswick for 1.5 units @ $4.70. Also back Volcanic Ash for 1.1 units @ $6.40. Back Fast and Free for 0.1 unit @ $65.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 8
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Schweppes Handicap
2. Validate: Further back than expected last start at The Valley. Up in distance should suit. Can run well again today with a longer straight. Will get a spot just off the pace.
3. Drawn to You (3kg claim): Low weight win last start in an average time run maiden at Benalla. Has to improve on that.
4. Jacqui’s Joy: Imported from NZ after failing to win on heavy tracks over there. First up win in a maiden was strong enough and sectionals were sound. Should run well today.
5. Miss Clooney: Did a fair bit wrong last start at Sandown from out the back but still finsihed off strongly. D Oliver keeps the ride. Has ability.
6. Single Note (1.5kg claim): Very nice win first up and strong final 600m sectional at Geelong over 1221 on a Good 4. Weighted to win as well from a positive barrier. Will get gun run.
7. All in the Reflexs: Nice trial win at Warwick Farm two back on soft. Ran well from on speed at Wangaratta but found one too good. Struggle to suggest a win off that run against these.
Comments: There’s no doubt in my mind that Validate is probably the best horse going forward, but Single Note is the standout on my ratings and should be a clear second favourite from Countessa. Happy to take Single Note on the Each-Way… only consider 6 of these top 3 chances.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Single Note @ $7/$2.25 Each-Way for 0.75 units.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Joe Brown Plate
1. Hell of an Effort: Very strong front running ride first up at Geelong. Times sound enough and final 600m worked out well sectional wise. Clearly has ability.
2. One Blink: Average run boxing on okay in the reverse race from off the pace… leader won and was what happened the whole day. Probably a forgive run.
3. Atlantic Express: Never seen to date. Market only guide.
4. Dot Painting: Never seen to date. Market only guide.
5. Hellbound: Never seen to date. Market only guide.
6. Observed: Never seen to date. Market only guide.
8. Ponte Roma: Nice run 2nd to hell of an Effort last start. Has ability and money has come.
9. Climate: Can’t take much from the trial but you can from the big money that has come and pushed her into almost favourite.
10. Honey Magic: Never seen to date. Market only guide.
Comments: Hard to back anything here. Hell of an Effort will run well and is top pick but i’m certainly not playing.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Hell of an Effort is the pick, but i’ll be sitting this out.
Caulfield Race 3 – 2000m – Allan Wicks Handicap
1. Sabor a Triunfo: Very strong effort first up when beat home Yellen over what looked an unsuitable distance with top weight. Ran 2nd of 12 from out the back. Probably better suited to a longer straight, but up to 2000m today is certainly ideal. Only issue is if they will be running on at this stage of the day with the rail out 2 metres and giving 6kg to the field.
2. To Be Honest (1.5kg claim): On speed runner. Has been too far back both her runs this prep and with a positive barrier today is expected to be much further forward in running. Up to the most suitable distance for this runner today, she finds herself in a suitable race. Can run well based on two runs in this prep.
3. Yellen: Ridden differently last start at Flemington. Took the lead and ran them along, claimed final 100m by two better. Weighted fine today and from barrier will be pushing forward again. Doubt they will be as eager to push this field along but may be better suited to the rail here today.
4. Ring da Belle: Ran home well first up at Flemington from out the back. Nice barrier today, can settle midfield if gets a good ride. Can improve onwards here. Bad track record though an issue. Does need to improve onwards.
6. Sea Spray: Continues to be well backed and continues to lose. Has troubles jumping with them. Not for mine here. Does have a win in it this prep but not convinced 2000m is the distance.
7. Fair and Equitable: Fairly beaten last start by Porte Cochere and doesn’t get any weight advantage. No thanks.
8. Yulong Baby: Every chance last start and just missed. Horse that beat it really isn’t that good.. did gap the rest.
9. Arianne: Had her chances last start behind Fair and Equitable but didn’t get there. Monogram hasn’t franked the form since.
Comments: This looks to be a race where the on-speed runners will be advantaged and that’s how i want to play it with two horses here. Yellen has a load of quality and I think just wasn’t suited to leading at Flemington and will be much better here at Caulfield.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Yellen for 3 units @ $3.50 to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Ken Sturt Handicap
1. Danestroem (1.5kg claim): Very good win start to finish last start at Sandown. Clear leader on mapping again today. Up in weight for the win and goes really well at this track. Well enough weighted here.
2. Whistle Baby: Consistent type that just loves to run well and win. Big win last start driving through late at Moonee Valley. Can improve onwards at 1400m again today, but does need the right run, will be goijg back from barrier.
3. Khutulun (1.5kg claim): Good win first up. Out the back off a slowish tempo last start at Pakenham and didn’t run on. Certainly a hard task this but she has proven in the past she can be good enough.
4. Sense and Reason: Expected to be out the back today. Three runs in this prep and not got within 3L of a win. Needs to improve.
5. Sino Eagle: Not the worst run last start at Moonee Valley when had the perfect run and still found 4 better. Down in weight today but still needs to improve up to the 1400m here.
6. Marli Magic (3kg claim): Strong win at MV last start back into form off a 7 day lay off. Almost a month between runs now, 52kg after claims has her well in. obviously going well enough and will be on speed from the barrier. Respect.
7. Hot Ruby: Four runs this prep and hasn’t got within 4.2L. Hard to have on runs this prep to date.
8. Lady Silhouette: Well beaten last start but was a forgive. Two back run was well enough to suggest can run well, but this is a step up in class again. Others preferred.
9. Anaphora (3kg claim): Low weight again today with the 3kg claim getting her down to 51kg. Beaten off by Danestroem last start at Sandown, but finds herself much better today at the weights from barrier 2, will be on speed again and looks hard to hold out if good enough.
10. Not a Happy Camper: Decent enough run 3rd last start at Flemington. Best runs in past over slightly less i’d suggest and looked to not fully get the 1400m last start for mine. Others preferred.
11. Oh So Assertive: Two back run was good enough to suggest she can run well, but last start in similar company found a few too good and isn’t very well weighted here.
Comments: I couldn’t jump into the price of Anaphora here, it’s simply too short on a runner I just can’t trust where it will sit in running. If i was playing here, Danestroem and Marli Magic are the two runners i’d be on.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Danestroem @ $6.50 and also back Marli Magic @ $9.00.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Dennis Hanrahan Handicap
1. Brave Journey: Very strong trial heading in but found the 955m first up just a little too short and fast. Finished off well late and looks well enough in here up to 1100m. Don’t dismiss on first up run.
2. Celeritas (1.5kg claim): Good run two back at MV and then backed that up with a win last start at MV from 4 wide. Respect, but may need luck.
3. Pink Perfection: Very good win three runs back at Bendigo on a Soft 7. Last start very poor but certainly a forgive run. Hradest race for a long while and back to firmer track. Barrier hurts.
4. Lago Girl (3kg claim): Hard horse to place with SYnthetic form. Not good enough on previous preps runs to suggest a first up win even at the 51kg.
5. Queen Extreme (1.5kg claim): 4.75L win at Horsham in BM-64 grade two runs back then very poor last start at Geelong. Not sure what to make of her if i’m perfectly honest. Her runs are either on or way off.
6. Sentfromthestars (1.5kg claim): Doesn’t win out of turn. Running ‘okay’ the last two but not good enough to win. Has to improve.
7. Simply Ming: Never got a run at them last start at MV and obviously found the line well. Continues to show similar this prep ‘running well’. Best run was 955m this prep.
8. Zambezi Diamond: Well backed two runs back in BM-64 and got the prize. Last start leading all the way didn’t measure up to the higher grade. Up in grade again.
10. Sheree: Likely leader from a wide barrier. Won two in a row in BM-64 grade but last start found a few too good. Big step up in class this.
11. Down The Hatch: Ran well first up ridden for luck at MV. Two runs back was poor but last start held up for runs was just ‘okay’. Needs to improve.
12. Real Warrior: Two runs this prep and not gone close in much easier… not for mine here.
Comments: This looks to be an open and shut race for mine. Celeritas as the CLEAR top pick here with the form suggesting she is the only one recently to have reached the levels required to take this out and can get a nice spot from the barrier. Brave Journey and Pink Perfection ahve the runs in the past to suggest they both can also measure up here while Queen Extreme also has the potential.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Celeritas for 3 units @ $3.50.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Frank O’Brien Handicap
1. Badajoz (3kg claim): Seemed to have every possible chance last start at Flemington. Back to around a turn should be better suited i’d suggest. Stays at 1200m. Awkward barrier.
2. Cool Snitzel (2kg claim): Two very strong wins in a row this prep. Found ALOT last start to beat Heatherly and Scatter Blast. Up to 1200m no issues at all for mine and looks well enough weighted here. Wide barrier the only issue.
3. Golden Spin (2kg claim): Ridden for a bit of luck last start at MV and found it. Strong enough win but this is much harder. Has to improve.
4. Tyrannize: Hard to argue with the form of this talented gelding. A very strong win last start at Flemington. Can continue that here and go through the grades. Looks a good type.
5. Well Sighted: Ran ‘okay’ last start at MV when had to go wide. Still 4.2L off them though. Has to improve.
6. Chase The Horizon: Couldn’t win a CL1 first up and then last start ran well behind Golden Spin but found one way too good. Has to improve here.
7. Bellomo (1.5kg claim): Nice enough final 400m last start behind Cool Snitzel but certainly has to improve on that run to be winning here and to turn the tables on the Snitz.
8. Crystal Dreamer: 5 length maiden win last start. Time was fair.
9. Hetuka Zarsho: Lame last start. Won a maiden well previous start at Kilmore.
10. Runson: Good time won at Mornington in Maiden class. Obviously has to go to the next level but does look good enough to me.
11. Spearhead: Well beaten last start at MV but was fairly green. Beat Crystal Dreamer two back at Mornington.
12. Georgie’s Luce: BM-64 winner on firm last first up. Has to improve again today but has ability.
13. Niccoco: Continues to run well this prep but after the maiden win has found a few too good. Last start knuckled but still ran well. Looks ready to win.
14. Uncanny Effort: Maiden win first up. Wide no cover last start. Not sure he is good enough here.
Comments: Wide open race with about 6-7 chances. Just simply a race i cannot put up as a best or any type of bet today due to too many chances. That being said, i’m very happy to suggest two standouts. Niccoco just misses the top two.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Tyrannize is our top pick here from Cool Snitzel.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m – Cape Grim Beef Handicap
1. Golden Mane (3kg claim): 58kg today after claims, looks very well in coming off a strong win last start at Moonee Valley. Good barrier today, expect to be midfield at worst in a field with few expected to push hard to go forward. A good ride would see him win this.
3. Sir Berus (2kg claim): Nice win two back at MV but last start well beaten by Lucques off a slow tempo. Can’t see a huge tempo on here today is the issue. Barrier a concern also.
4. Firehouse Rock: Never a chance from the back with the tempo last start. Down in grade and up in weight, may find it hard at the weights but has the ability and loves this track. Barrier hurts.
5. Entre Nous (1.5kg claim): One of two clear leaders in the race. Been going through the grades but was found out two back by Master Reset at Wodonga. Last start beaten by a fairly average type in Wilscot.
6. Aggregator (2kg claim): Best runs over further than this. Never won first up. Struggle to suggest here.
8. Allergic: Disappointing run first up at Flemington over the 1400m. Up to 1800m getting to a more suitable distance. Handles wet tracks… 1.8L 3rd to Delicacy over 2500m… needs further but can run well here if good enough.
9. Use The Lot (1.5kg claim): On speed all the way last start and just missed to Beau Brommell. Okay weighted back in class here and has the form on the board at this track. If it’s on speed rated today, then he is every possible.
10. Warrior King: Short priced favourite. Beat Smart Dart last start who is a very smart horse and has won since. Up in distanmce obviously ideal and handles wet tracks.
11. Leica Day: Beat home Kiwi Kate last start which isn’t exactly top class form heading into this, but was a nice enough sustained run. Barrier hurts chances today but a smart ride would see him settle forward.
13. Bring Back: Decent enough horse on his day, but hasn’t won in a very long time and first up found very little.
14. Elmantosh: Hasn’t won since 2013. Five runs this prep and yet to place in similar grades. Barrier 20.
15. Winta Chiller: Good win two back at Pakenham running down Black Sheep who has won since in city class. Ignore last start run. Hates it wet.
16. Winston Drive (1.5kg claim): Doesn’t win out of turn. On her day good enough in this grade, but soft tracks haven’t been her thing and last five runs haven’t been that great.
17. Vintage Lad (1.5kg claim): Goes well enough on wet tracks. Hasn’t gone close to a win in the past two preps. Not here.
18. Belorum: Did a few things wrong last two starts when ran nicely enough. Not the best wet tracker on form lines. Needs to improve.
19. Seul Spirit: Well beaten in similar class last start at Flemington. Back to 1800m but didn’t get the 2000m last time out. Wet form only average.
Comments: Warrior King looks the goods, but $3 is way too short here. Golden Mane and Allergic would be the two i’d be backing here while Use The Lot looks the value in the race controlling the speed out front.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Back Golden Mane, Allergic and Use The Lot.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – The Cup Club Christmas Stakes
2. Sistine Demon: Not the same horse last two preps. Firs tup went close from off the speed then on speed last start found little at Flemington. Don’t dismiss… two back run was good enough.
3. Office Bearer: Running very well this prep with two runs at the top level and found a few too good both times. Handles it wet with no issues. Issue is hasn’t done much ever at this track.
4. Reldas: Disappointing run last start at Sandown when didn’t really let down. Run two back at Flemington 2nd to Malaguerra was good enough to measure up here. Just ignore last start.
5. General Groove: Firs tup run at MV wasn’t too bad when 4th to Writen Up. Can improve again but up in class looks outmatched.
6. Nicoscene: Three runs this prep and just hasn’t measured up. I couldn’t back on form to date.
7. Pago Rock: Found nothing the last few runs. Can’t leave out of the quaddie just becaue his best is good enough and this is his track.
8. Taddei Tondo: Ran home well enough at Sandown last start. Big step up in class and 7 runs 0 wins at this class in the past. Best runs on dryer tracks.
9. Written Up: Very strong win last start at Moonee Valley. Handles it wet and looks well in here at the weights.
10. Tuscan Sling: Moral beaten last start at MV. Handled heavy two back. Strong horse… up to 1200m unknown really though but should get the distance.
12. Tudor: Needs to improve today on the last two runs to be measuring up here. Not for me.
14. Mister Milton: Old mate. Still going around.. still running okay… one day will get another win… not today.
15. Sirbible: Strong win last start at MV. Big step up in class here. Looks the leader from barrier.
Comments: Probably the most open race of the day. As you can see with our Quaddie selections, there are alot of chances here. Couldn’t be backing anything outright, but i’m happy that we may find some value in the Quadie.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 15
Strategy: Office Bearer E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1700m – Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes
1. Lidari: Found very little last prep. Been a long time between runs and finally back today under the care of the Weir stable, taken off Moody. Top weight. Hasn’t been back in this grade for a long time. Ideal distance.
2. Signoff: Best runs last year were obviously over a further distance than this today. 1700m probably short of his best, but can still win over it. Last prep only run over 1600m didn’t find much.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Running consistently this prep but just simply not going well enough to get a win. Another horror barrier. Can run top 5.
4. Star Rolling: Not the worst run last start at Flemington for 4th but well beaten that day and hard to see the step up required here.
5. Evangelist: Ignore last start run at Sandown and rate on previous two runs. Should have probably won at Kilmore blocked for runs. Has ability. Poor barrier.
6. Metaphorical: Was in a nice spot but just battled on last start at Sandown. Needs to show improvement here up in distance to be measuring up.
7. Precious Gem: Strong win at Flemington setup by the speed being on. Looks to be on today and maps out the back as always. Will need to get a good run to win this.
8. Held Hostage: Going through the motions with two wins in a row this prep in easier company. Has shown form in the past to suggest she could place here.
9. Garud: Last two runs have been well below par in harder company. Hard to have on recent form.
10. Majestic Duke: Not the worst run last start at Sandown. Previous run at Kilmore was good also. Needs a bit of rain to find his best.
11. Tashbeeh: Good win at Flemington last start. Never in doubt that day but certainly didn’t fly away from them. Good time set and down to 54kg today looks well in from barrier 5.
12. Inspector: Had his chances at Traralgon last start and previous run at Kilmore also. Good win four back at Mornington but hasn’t measured up to this grade.
13. Master Reset: Very large win last start at Wodonga up in class. Looks to be back to his very well. Poor barrier today hurts and will have to work hard to get a spot out front.
15. Lord Athenaeum: Continues to jump poorly which is hurting his chances of winning. Hard to have in this class based ont he patterns to date.
Comments: Very open race this one. Tashbeeh the top pick on current form but not sure i would be jumping for joy at the price.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Tashbeeh to win
Caulfield Race 10 – 1400m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 10
1. Fast and Free (3kg claim): A long time between wins for this once very talented horse. Goes well on wet tracks so should be hoping for the rain and looks well enough in at the weights claiming 3kg. Good barrier today, a return to form of last prep would see him winning this. Was 1.3L off The Cleaner and 2.5L off Mourinho.
3. Commanding Time: Inside barrier, will be pushing forward to get a position just off the speed. Hasn’t won in a long time and even longer in town. Handles wet tracks. No claimer on, will have to do it the hard way. Hasn’t won first up in a long time.
4. Chestnut Charlie: Adelaide runner over in VIC. Hasn’t won from 4 runs this prep and this looks much harder. Not for me.
5. Duke of Brunswick: Wasn’t convinced he was a nice price first up over the 1200m but he won very well that day. Will be tough to get a good spot in running from barrier but he is certainly good enough to be winning this over the 1400m.
6. The New Boy: Got a win this prep finally. Ran okay last few runs but not up to this.
7. Volcanic Ash (2kg claim): Ran closer to the form we were expecting last start at Pakenham doing his best work late. Obviously wasn’t fully wound up the first two runs this prep and back in class here looks very well weighted with the 2kg claim. Maps well also.
8. Live for Today (1.5kg claim): Huge win first up at the bool from out the back. Will be a long way off them again today but you have to believe he is going very well to have won that way. Respect with speed expected to be on. May be ridden for luck.
12. Beliveau: Hurdles horse. Not here.
13. Benchi Pegasus (3kg claim): Out the back last start and ran on okay but no match for the Duke. Better weighted today so you have to consider and will run well on wet.
14. Rock ‘N’ Gold: Had his chances last start over-racing but was blocked for a run a few times. Obviously going well enough and has decent form lines, but has to make a big step up to beat these.
16. Free of Doubt: Out the back last start at Moonee Valley and ran on okay but no chance from there. Can go further forward today but will still be up against it to get a good spot today.
17. Pinyarda (1.5kg claim): Going through the grades but this is far beyond him. Not for me.
Comments: Two horses that i’m keen to follow going forward who love any condition are Duke of Brusnwick and Volcanic Ash. Both going well and both map well enough to give us a good mix in this race. Fast and Free is the runner at odds i need to have something on also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: Back Duke of Brunswick for 1.5 units @ $4.70. Back Volcanic Ash for 1.1 unit @ $6.40. Back Fast and Free for 0.1 unit @ $65
