Welcome to The Profits form guide for 24 September 2016 at Caulfield! We are back again after a very succesful week at Caulfield where our Best Bet and Next best both won taking us to 22 units profit over the past two weeks. It was great to see the track walking paying us back with the track playing as expected to get our winners home last week and i’m expecting the same to occur again this week. Read the track report below if you are interested. There is one clear top pick on my ratings today that is hard to let pass and i’m going big with confidence behind it as the best bet at nice odds. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Sheidel – 2.5 units Each-Way @$7.50/$2.60
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 8 – Jacquinot Bay – 2 units to place @ $7.00
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $3.70
Caulfield Race 3 – Royal Rapture – 1.5 units @ $4.00
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 12, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Track Report – Caulfield – 17 September 2016
Rail back into the True position Entire Circuit (Previous 9m)
Walked perfectly inside 6 metres.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – The Alfred Hospital Plate
1. Tina Melina: Two trials and bunch of gear changes first time in Melbourne for the Waller stable. Listed winner at Doomben two preps back beating Miss Cover Girl over 1200m in a very fast run 1200m race. Two runs last prep.. first up was very average but next start 4th was a good run from a fair way back. Looks fit enough but certainly high up in the weights.
2. Take Pride: EIPH only run last prep when 3-wide no cover and still ran quite well over the 955m. Group 3 winner over Secret Agenda the previous prep by 3 lengths and ran a valid thousand guineas 5th when leading. Clearly well suited over the 1100m and at Caulfield on previous runs. Will be on speed and hard to get past if at her best.
3. Catch That Cat: A long time between wins having gone three preps without one. Hasn’t run a place the past two preps. Goes okay first up and D Oliver takes the ride… better for a Good track today but is 0 places from 3 runs. Others preferred.
4. Super Cash: Seems to go her very best first and second up into preps. Last prep a strong 3rd behind Secret Agenda and Almighty Girl before beating Sooboog down the Flemington straight. Best is more than good enough from a nice barrier.
5. Jalan Jalan: Looked a very good type as a 2YO when winning a handicap race and running 2nd in a Group 3 race. Came back as a 3YO running 3rd to Petits Filous and 2nd to Miss Promiscuity before two failed runs. Comes back from a spell and trialled well enough. Only two wins have been on a soft track.
6. Magic Alibi: Wide barrier. First up ran very well from off the pace to get home 0.5L 3rd behind Heavens Above and Ravi in Group 3 company. Step back in clas today yet still very well weighted. Loves a dry track and looks to have made great improvement this prep. Have to respect.
7. Our Harmony: Blinkers first time. Two runs this prep and failed to fire on both occasions. Hard to suggest anything better than a place today.
9. Mossin’ Around: Super disappointing when 3-wide no cover last start at Caulfield finishing last. Previous run was held up for runs when 6th. Clearly has ability but has to show it today.
10. Grey Street: 1.5kg claim today. Handy enough run first up but certainly has to run better than that today up in class. Never won in this class but is expected to run well enough to place.
11. Sheree: 3kg claim today. On her best form last prep, she is more than good enough to measure up here with the 51kg today from start to finish. Not sure what to make of her last start run at Sandown but it probably was the speed in which she led that undid her. Clearly has to have improved lengths on first two runs to wint his.
Comments: A fairly confusing race to open the card. Mossin’ Around, Foreign Affiar, Magic Alibi, Jalan, Jalan, Super Cash, Take Pride and Tina Melina all have claims to be considered in betting here. This isn’t the type of race I like to get involved in betting wise, especially to start the day. If Take Pride is at her best (big unknown) then she will be hard to get past in the straight. Super Cash’s best runs from the past are simply good enough to win this, but the horse doesn’t produce consistent results. Jalan Jalan holds the key to this race for me today… if they decide to push forward then this race is in her grasp.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Jalan Jalan E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 2400m – italktravel Harry White Classic
2. Shimrano: Blinkers first time. Group 2 winner when running in Germany two preps back. First up run was horrible when well beaten on a soft ground over 1700m. Need to improve significantly up to the 2400m… I can’t see the win.
3. Almandin: Three runs this prep and hasn’t got closer than 4.45L off a win. Steps up to 2400m. Will that really ‘do the trick’? D Oliver takes the ride today for the first time.
4. Assign: D Oliver jumps off Assign and jumps onto Almandin which says a fair bit about how well this guy is going. Did win a listed race last prep with a star tto finish run. Have to respect over this distance.
5. Black Tomahawk: Getting the reputation of a non-winner having run 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 2nd the last 5 runs. Beaten 0.1L last start at Flemington but a clear distnace to 3rd behind them. That was a real tough staying test and back to a firmer track today could do the trick off the weight.
6. Thunder Teddington: Hard horse to really judge. Listed winner over in Europe. Placed in German races also in listed/handicap company over distances before being imported. Been given enough runs to get fit enough to run well here and a win wouldn’t shock me at all here. Looks one to spec.
7. O’Lonera: Not suited last start when the speed was on out front over the 2500m. They have decided to run him again over the distance and he won’t get an easy win or anything. I have to take him on here.
8. The Bandit: Ran surprisingly well first up over the 1500m with 60kg at Moonee Valley. Certainly can’t be discounted.
Comments: Five of seven runners in the race are single figure odds today. Unlike a few around, I can see why Black Tomahawk is the $4 price today and it is the right price needed to back today. Thunder Teddington could continue to drift and get out to around $70s and run a cracking race. Clearly the value in the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Black Tomahawk and Thunder Teddington
Caulfield Race 3 – 1700m – Moniek Sambor Tile Importer Handicap
1. Royal Rapture: 3kg claim today. Very well in at the weights again after winning four in a row. Maps to get an ideal run again today from the inside gate over the suitable 1700m. Should be a Good 4 down to Good 3 today and this race being early on is going to be more favourable to the track condition. No reason he can’t make it five in a row here.
2. Escado: Needs further.
3. Longeron: Nice enough run at course and distance last start on a Good track when 3rd. Thought he had every possible chance though and he really wants further and softer to find his best.
4. Big Memory: Ran a nice on speed race 3rd fairly beaten by Royal Rapture. Will improve for the run but doesn’t get any weight improvement today and barrier hurts chances to get a good run.
5. Bring Something: Three trials leading into this and looked good on the last two occasions. Last win was in 2014 in the Bendigo Cup and it’s been a long time between drinks. Hard to have first up here on record.
6. Mihany: 1.5kg claim today. Up in weight today after a solid start to finish win last start at Moonee Valley suited by the ‘bias’ that day as well as no pressure on speed. Won’t exactly be pestered today either is a big positive.
7. Mr Epic: Won 4 of his last 5 races. Only loss was when he went 10L back to last and still ran home for 3rd. Led well the last two starts. Have to respect here even on the firmer track.
9. Rose of Virginia: 1.5kg claim today. Best runs are 2200m+ and this is simply too short based on first up run.
10. Honorius: Horrible first up over the 1400m. Hasn’t shown anything the past two preps. Best runs over these distance ranges and up is another issue.
11. Nozomi: Looked a nice type beating Preferment in 2014 in the Geelong Classic and running 3rd in the Vic Derby.. but hasn’t won since…. first up run didn’t show much. Needs further.
12. Our Century: Hickmott import. Awkward barrier. Best runs in the past have been over MUCH further. Ran Hartnell to 0.3L over 3200m in the Queen’s Vase 830 days ago. Previous to that ran well over 2000m and okay over 1600m winning a maiden before that. If at his best he can figure.
Comments: Royal Rapture, Mihany, Mr Epic, Pilote D’Essai and Our Century are the key chances on form. It all points back to Royal Rapture today on weights and runs. I just hope Allen can get the horse to be 1 off the rail from barrier 1 or get a run before entering the straight as it may take away the advantage he has over his rivals.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Royal Rapture for 1.5 units @ $4.00
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – Inglis Cup
1. Ayers Rock: Folded quickly last start in Group 1 company which was no surprise at all over the 1600m distance. Obviously wanting further than that on previous prep runs. Will be setting a very solid speed out front today and will appreciate the good track, but certainly can’t be anywhere near him with D Dunn onboard a front runner with two verage runs heading in.
2. So Willie: Waller runner sent down for this race today after encountering a load of wet tracks up north. Goes well enough on Good tracks to suggest he will measure up today. Only win this prep was on a bottomless Heavy 10. Will run well but i’m not convinced he is the winner.
3. Pay Up Bro: I have a big opinion of this bloke and have ever since his first prep. It looks like he has turned a corner finally after two very solid 1400m runs leading into this. Last start he showed an explosive turn of foot to put a very good BM-78 grade race away in the matter of a few strides on the Synthetic. Will be getting back beyond midfield in running and coming home strongly with a mighty finish.
4. Portion Control: Good barrier today to get a midfield or better run in transit. 7th run this prep and yet to get a win, with two seconds over in Adelaide in easier races on the record. Back to a good surface should be suitable today, but clearly has to improve.
5. Hierarchal: Only the one career win on record and 1 place in the past 10 runs. Two runs in this prep were both very average in much easier grades. Over this distance in the past has run well without going close in similar grade. Must have gone to the next level.
6. Kifaah: Threatened to win a number of races this prep before finally going back to the dryer synthetic track 5th run in and getting a result. Big questions being asked first time over 2000m with the tempo on.
7. Craven Image: Got his maien win and then a BM-64 grade win to go onwards with it two runs this prep for Weir stable. Only just won last start but back to a dryer track he looks well suited. Does need to improve again.
8. Kevin’s Time: BM-64 grade win with ease all the way last start at Pakenham in a very average race time. Previous run well beaten favourite in BM-64 over 1800m at Sandown from out back. Clearly has some ability but is this the right race?
9. Magentaz: Maiden winner last start at Geelong and had a trial since to keep fit. Has ability to go onwards and run well here but does look a big step up.
10. Holyroodhouse: Maiden winner up north. Last two runs don’t inspire confidence.
11. Geodesic: Yet to win a race. Two runs this prep failed to place in maidens.
12. Rosaleisha: Very best runs in the past have been on wetter tracks. Last start at Rosehill hit the line strongly in easier grade. A win wouldn’t be a total shock.
Comments: Once again, this Inglis Cup race is a dream for owners with 250k in prizes being given away to some very average horses. Pay Up Bro is the clear top pick in the race and the price is attractive enough to have a smal play on the race. Kiffah has potential and is worth a spec bet also if playing.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Pay Up Bro to win. Very small bet on Ayer’s Rock. Small bet also on Kifaah at the value price.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude
1. Whispering Brook: Sensational first up run at Moonee Valey and went through the line like a horse wanting further. Gave the winner 3.5kg that day and that was the difference. Gets in fine today at the weights and looks the clear leader on paper today in a race lacking in other leading chances. No dramas from the barrier and everything is in her corner to win this.
2. Missrock: Decent return to the track first up down the Flemington straight but was lacking in turn of foot to match it with the best of them. Up to 1400m should help her chances here but i do question if she really is more than just a sprinter. Will be going back from the barrier and coming home strongly.
3. Samara Dancer: Very good return to the track at Flemington last start behind two nice horses in Saracino and Archives. Back to a firmer track today could be the key. Up to 1400m looks a positive move also. Barrier will have her in a tough spot is the only issue.
4. La Luna Rossa: Group 1 winner over 1400m in New Zealand on a Heavy 10… clearly this girl wants the distance plus the extra 200m for the Thousand Guineas. Has won on Good tracks in the past… I think she will show us a slashing run today and next start is the ultimate goal. D Oliver takes the ride which is hard to ignore especially on his record taking rides in this level of race.
5. I Am a Star: Group 3 winner over Leotie two back at Caulfield when widest all the way. Didn’t handle the Heavy track being further forward last start at Randwick and does look to be wanting the extra distance and dryer track today. Respect but barrier is a concern again today. Should get back in running.
6. Sword of Light: Disappointing run last start seemingly gone backwards since the first up. Not convinced she wants the 1400m at all and is better over the 1000m. Take on.
7. Royal Tithe: QLD raider. 2YO handicap winner over 1600m at Doomben on a Soft 5. Stormed home as favourite last start and just missed giving the winner and 2nd 6kg. Looks to be a type we have to respect.
8. Zamzam: Two runs this prep. First up every chance but beaten. Last start showed nothing. Tough to suggest here.
10. Flying Jess: Group 3 winner over 1400m last prep. Was a decent enough first up run when came home nicely from last, but i’m not convinced she is going well enough compared to last start.
12. Sebring Dream: Hayes stable have made no secret that they feel she is their guineas horse having won over 1400m last prep at the top level. First up run got home solidly enough 5L off WHispering Brook at Moonee Valley over 1200m. Very good barrier today could see her position midfield at worst. Respect
13. Inspired Estelle: Very disappointing run first up at Flemington coming off a nice trial at Pakenham. Looked a decent type the previous prep. Stays at 1400m and back to dryer. Not overly confident she can show much here.
14. Legless Veuve: Maiden winner first up at Sale over 1200. Huge jump in grade on that run, but last prep she did run 0.2L 2nd behind Zamzam at Moonee Valley from an on speed position. Good barrier today and has been backed.
Comments: Whispering Brook is the standout here. It’s hard to believe how they opened her a $6 chance but they did. She is the clear leader in the race and rates as the winner. The main threat on potential has to be Sebring Dream while Legless Veuve maps as a threat if finds her best today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $3.70
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas Prelude
1. Sacred Elixir: Proved to be a very good type over the 1600m distance last prep when smashed them at Eagle Farm by 3.5 lengths in the Group 1 from back in the field. Maps to get back from barrier 6 and will be storming home late. Expect he will need the run as a lead up to the grand final Guineas.
2. Saracino: Smart win first up at Flemington when found more than most were expeting from an on speed position winning in a very fast time for a Soft 5 track. That’s two G2 wins in a row and there is no reason why he can’t win this today. Only negative is the dryer track. Great barrier drawn.
3. Seaburge: Blinkers first time. Looks to be going through the grades as expected this prep and last start had no real chance to show us what he had under the hood over the 1400m when held up for 300m. Expect he will get every chance today to win and that is a big posibility of happening.
4. Valliano: Blinkers first time. Every chance first up when fairly beaten and last start ran home well without making ground on Saracino when it counted. Going forward from a very tricky draw and will need to improve 2-3 lengths i’d imagine to win today.
6. Archives: Talented Godolphin runner. Very nice run first up and clearly is looking for the extra 200m today. Barrier 12 makes it a bit tough but expect he will be on speed again with Saracino fighting it out early on. Every chance he gets caught 3-wide with Williams onboard.
8. Wazzenme: Thought his last two runs have been very good without setting the world on fire. Unfortunately he got another horrible barrier today which makes it tough to consider him a winning chance.
9. Evacuation: Only loss in a trial or on the track has been when beaten 0.4L by Star Turn which is a fair enough reason to be beaten in a trial. 2YO winner last prep and then smashed the field on a Heavy track first up in easier grade over 1400m. Clearly going well and goes well on good tracks also. Looks to be wanting the distance. Key chance.
10. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Blinkers first time. Horrible run first up. Previous prep ran some nice races in 2YO grades to record two wins. Barrier should give him every chance if good enough but I do expect him to find a few too good.
11. Revolving Door: Three runs this prep and fialed to place in all three without running poorly. Can’t see a win today.
12. Hardham: At the start of the campaign there was a few beat ups about how good this horse could be, but that just hasn’t fallen into place with two average runs in a row. Up to 1400m may do the trick but it’s hard to suggest.
13. So Si Bon: Only an average maiden win last start at Pakenham to get a score on the board. Previous runs don’t inspire the confidence required to suggest a win here.
14. Violate: Failed to get a win this prep in much easier races than this. One to clearly take on.
15. I’m Telling Ya: Maiden only winner. Well beaten as favourite firs tup at Pakenham. No.
16. Bee Jay’s Choice: Another maiden only winner that has failed to record a win since.
Comments: There are several key chances in this race all in the single figure range. My value pick in the race has been scratched so i’m left to take a stab at this tough race the only way I know how, but selecting the horse that maps the best with talent.
Confidence 65%
Quaddi Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
Strategy: Back Seaburge E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
2. Xtravagant: Never winning first up when needed the run after a few setbacks. Gets the desired firm track today that will suit front markers throughout the day. Gets up to 1400m which is the distance that saw his career best performance winning a Group 1 by 8 lengths in a lazy 1:21.92 race time. On his day, he is a serious horse and it will take a brave person to doubt him here.
3. Rangipo: Blinkers first time. G1 NZ Derby winner. Needs further to find best… but has won G2 grade over 1600m and placed in G1 grade over 1600m.
4. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Big step up in class today and he just hasn’t shown us much the past three runs to suggest a win in this grade. Take him on.
5. Charmed Harmony: Going horribly recently, but the blinkers off are a clear positive step today. Will be on speed hoping to sit outside the leader to run on late in the piece. Track may be a little too firm for his liking today also.
6. Counterattack: Hard horse to catch. G3 winner last prep, he was a nice run 2nd to Mackintosh last start at Rosehill when held up for runs on the rails. C Williams onboard and barrier 7, so you would expect him to get a nice run.. but could settle 3-wide. Will be coming from midfield at best.
7. Voodoo Lad: Two solid wins in a row and he appears to be putting it all together. Step up to 1400m looks a big questionmark for me today especially from barrier 10. Yes, it does look like he will get the distance on the last start run, but what did he beat that day in comparison to this field? It’s an interesting prospect.. he will run well but this is the testing material.
9. Tivaci: Never seems to run a bad race and showed that first up in the Bobbie Lewis when fairly beaten by Faatinah, getting home down the straight for a very solid 2n. Up to 1400m will clearly see him improve onwards and this is his best distance from past runs, especially the win over Palentino.
10. Badawiya: Very disappointing first up when didn’t exactly close off line you would have expected on best runs in the past. Looks to be wanting firmer tracks and gets that today. Even so, hard to suggest the big improvement up in this grade.
11. Bon Aurum: Massive win last start at Flemington destroying a ‘decent’ but not superstar field. This is clearly the testing material and there is no doubt he is good enough to measure up, just getting the win is the hard part. Maps well enough with a low weight from barrier 5.
12. Thames Court: Continues to run well without winning. Huge step up in class today and even with the low weight and inside barrier, I can see her running well for a top 3-6 position but not for the win.
13. Telopea: Continues to run well without luck after a freshen up. Obviously much harder grade once again today but had no luck two back and then last start simply too far back off a slow tempo. Doesn’t exactly map well sadly.
14. Well Sprung: On the short backup after storming home from last over 1200m last week. Never won at distance but low weight and the horse is flying so no real reason to not have a throw at the stumps.
15. Jungle Edge: Hugely outclassed and dry track.
16. Mr Individual: Simply massive run last start at Moonee Valley when a close 2nd to Vostok. Moss ‘n’ Dale who was third has won since and so has Vostok the winner. Big step up in class obviously and not very well in at weights if you consider Well Sprung and a few others, but he will be on speed and be there at the finish.
Comments: The price on Xtravagant is simply wrong and I can’t let that one slide through. Will control the tempo, but on a brutal pace and be hard to get past late.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16
Strategy: Xtravagant E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 1800m – Underwood Stakes
1. Prince of Penzance: Old mate is clocking over nicely on his way to a Moonee Valley Cup and then Melbourne Cup run. I certainly can’t make an appeal for him to win this on current runs. Needs further.
2. Black Heart Bart: Ran a super race last start at Flemington on a less than ideal Soft 5 track when you look back over his history.. but even so he ran close to his peak that day and was simply beaten by a better horse on the day when got the front probably a little sooner than Brad would have hoped. Gets the perfect tempo today and perfect run from the barrier.
4. The Cleaner: His run last start was actually much better than it appeared to run 5th at Moonee Valley in the Feehan. A firmer track today will be an advantage again and so will the extra distance. I’m expecting him to run an absolute blinder here, looking the winner entering the straight.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Ran a great race in the G2 Lawrence three runs back. Last start stuck on strongly 3-wide no cover the trip and was bustled to 5-wide at the 700m going around the turn. Stuck on strongly all the way to the line and was a massive run. Will be going forward today with The Cleaner and will be having every possible chance.
6. Awesome Rock: Ran a very good race in the Feehan when saved ground and got a very nice run. That was certainly a career peak run off a ‘fair’ tempo that allowed him to sprint away with it. Inside barrier today again but not sure he gets as far back as last start. Will be a tougher ask today with the sectionals i’m expecting The Cleaner to put on.
7. He or She: Group 2 winner last prep over similar distances, last start ran a very nice 3rd behind Black Heart Bart. Get a long way back again from Barrier 1. Can improve onwards back to this track but hard to see the winning run.
8. Tarzino: Poor barrier again today. Expected to get a long way back running on. Not convinced he is actually suited today with The Cleaner setting a brutal tempo out front based on the two previous runs. Have to take him on at the price but can’t leave him out of Quaddie leg with his x factor.
9. Tavago: First up in the Feehan was well backed, but well beaten that day. Expecting him to be much fitter today, but there is no way I could back him to win with such a strong tempo over this distance on a firmer track.
10. Howard Be Thy Name: SA Derby winner. First up wasn’t a terrible run in much easier when came from back to finish 10th. Much harder and looks very much out of class over this distance.
11. Lucia Valentina: Well beaten first up when very disappointing over 1400m on a Good 4. Has a trial since. 2nd up today… best run last prep was clearly the Queen Eliz grand final win on a Soft track. This isn’t her grand final today and she will need to come from a long way back to win this.
Comments: Black Heart Bart is the horse to beat here. I think The Cleaner will run much better than the market suggests and will be a big chance to pull off a victory. Jacquinot Bay is the clear value in the race and the way to play it today is for the place.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay for 2 units to place @ $7.00
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Mypunter Handicap
1. Sheidel: 2kg claim today. Will be much better for the first up run. Well back in class here in reality race class wise and finds herself well in over the 1100m. Last start at course and distance was a listed race win beating Under The Louvre that day. G1 placed 2nd last prep and expect her to be pushing forward again today. Will be better for the run last start when 3-wide no cover and still ran a brave 4th.
2. General Truce: 3kg claim today. Best runs recently have been on softer tracks, but two back at course and distance ran a fair 5th beaten 2.45L when every chance that day. Last start was okay enough 4th behind Heatherly… going well enough and weighted well, but not convinced a win.. place? Yes.
4. Sea Lord: Hasn’t been seen in nearly a year since a big upset win on Cup day at big odds when beating a nice listed race field down the Flemington straight by 1.75L. First up form is okay enough and hard to really suggest he can’t bring the good form.. but it’s clear based on last prep that they are aiming him at Cup day again.
6. Alpha Miss: Every chance last start in harder grade. Just simply not top grade material for mine and out of place here.
7. Inz’n’out: Best runs in the past have been on much softer tracks than this. Trialled okay but really hard to see in this grade of race even from barrier. Has been backed in today and while the form from last prep is ‘decent’, it doesn’t deserve to have the horse this price today against these other horses.
8. Play Master: 1.5kg claim today. Nice type of horse that has measure dup to listed grade, but this is a step further up. Last start of last prep a long time ago 0.1L 2nd to Play Master. Heavy trial didn’t reveal much.
9. Atmospherical: Two solid trials heading into this prep before a nice run 3rd in the G3 Monash. Last start further back from a wider barrier and got a long way back, held up for runs also. Firmer today will suit.
10. Trevinder: Huge run from off speed wide no cover first up. Last two runs though ahve been well below that first up runs efforts. Could be ready to run a better race today, but barrier doesn’t help much.
11. Rageese: Certainly mised the form last prep when proved to be a very nice type when back in easier grades of races over further. Hard horse to catch and really not convinced 1100m is long enough in this grade.
12. Hellbent: Very well backed 2nd favourite two runs back in G3 company at course, distance and track condition when failed to finish off as strongly as expected. Softer track and a much easier grade of race last start saw him win very well in a classy race at Sale beating some nice types. Horrible barrier today means he maps very awkwardly and is every chance to be caught 3-wide the trip.
13. Inspector: Every possible chance first up at Sandown and was disappointing. This looks far too short for the horse and can’t understand them running here.
15. Sunday Escape: Every possible chance last start leading at Sale which may just have been a negative for him. Two back run untested when held up for runs finishing 2.7L off the winner that day. Clearly has the ability if good enough from barrier ridden with a sit.
Comments: I think the bookies have made a horrible mistake with the prices in this race and i’m very keen to be backing one horse hard here in Shieldel. This is a horse that lost a Group 1 by a whisker and put in a very good run first up and will have improved. There are no world beaters at the 1100m distance in this race and i’m confident we will get a result here.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 12, 15
Strategy: Sheidel – 2.5 units Each-Way @$7.50/$2.60
