Welcome to The Profits form guide for 23 April 2016 at Caulfield. We bounced back with a nice profit with our best of the day Prized icon saluting last week and it could have been so much better with our next best bet running 2nd at $15/$4.60 and our best value bet Knoydart at $31/$8.50 somehow losing a photo for first. It has to be said that this is one of the least confident days I’ve had in a while with only two bets I can have on the day with any real confidence. I’ll be heading out to Kyneton to see my horse Miller Street run again and I think he is a great chance and hope we get double figure odds once again to find out. Looking forward to a very good day of racing. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Grey Street for 2.5 units @ $3.20. Also back Pilly’s Wish for 1 unit @ $7.20
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Our Vidia for 0.75 units @ $17/$5 Each-Way.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 9, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1100m – The Cove Hotel Handicap
1. Giroux: Looked a nice enough type last prep with two runs for two seconds in similar class around some good horses. Wide barrier doesn’t help but will be going forward.
2. Call me Tess: Maiden winner at Bendigo then failed to measure up in her next two starts to the top level. Has to obviously improve this prep in.
3. Decoco: Nice enough maiden win first up at Bendigo. Will push forward from inside barrier and times were sound.
4. Flying Comet: First run to date. Market is your guide.
5. Fromparis Withlove: First run to date. Market is your guide.
6. I Am a Star: Won her trial on a wet track at Cranbourne and looked a nice type. 3kg claim should obviously have her well in.
7. Merriest: First run to date. Market is your guide.
8. Modern Wonder: First run to date. Market is your guide.
9. Phoenix Rising: First run to date. Market is your guide.
10. Rowdy Rousey: First run to date. Market is your guide.
11. Special Diva: Good trial win heading into this. Looks well bred and D Oliver takes the ride.
12. Vintage Quartz: First run to date. Market is your guide.
13. Dimoshot: First up run was average at best. Has to improve on what we saw there to be a chance of placing.
14. Galea: First up showed absolutely nothing. Take on.
15. Fille Champagne: Nice enough trial win. Went around favourite in her maiden but was well beaten on the day. Has to improve.
Comments: Tough and rough way to open a decent day’s racing. So many unknown factors and this isn’t a great race for punters. Continue to not support these races until we get every runner trialed openly.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Decoco to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1000m – The Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap
1. Pilly’s Wish: Always been a very nice type of runner. Has won in Mares grade here last prep. Did win first up last prep in similar grade over this distance. 3kg claim has her well in and barrier 6 is ideal sitting in a midfield position. Goes well first up goes well at distance and has won at track.
2. Solar Duchess: Been up this prep since early October, but the stable know how to get the best out of her. Four runs then a freshen, two runs then a freshen and then two runs then a freshen. All up she has won 5 of her last 8 runs this prep going through the grades. Last start won over 1000m at Moonee Valley beating some nice types on a soft track. Obviously her toughest test to date but based on previous runs she is more than good enough to measure up again. Only issue is first time at track as well as the top weight with no claim.
3. Hotel Sierra: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Last two runs she has run 2nd to some good types in Solar Duchess and Well Sprung. Well enough weighted to run well and continues to put in solid runs. Barrier the big concern.
4. Petite’s Reward: Seemed to have every possible chance first up at Mornington and lacked the turn of speed. Hard to see the improvement here from a very average barrier. Previous best has been good enough to measure up around this grade but needs the run for mine.
5. Bermuda Blu: Down from three runs in Sydney this prep, she failed to measure up in G3 level before dropping back to BM-77 where she ran only fairly over 1400m. Well back in distance here and hasn’t won for a fair while… last win on a Heavy 8.
6. Grey Street: Key form line horse today. 6 runs this prep for two wins and two seconds to Stellar Collision and Petitis Filous. Jalan Jalan since franked the form also last start running a close 2nd in the Vobis Gold Sprint last week beating G1 winner The Quarterback home. Maps perfectly from barrier 8 to get a run midfield with cover. Nearly a month between runs will have her rock hard fit for this.
7. Sea Spray: Doesn’t win out of turn or often. Hasn’t won in past 10 runs but always seems to run well. Always runs well in this type of grade but her racing pattern is a massive disadvantage to winning. 1000m a little short for my liking.
8. Bella Capri: Looked a very nice type last year but didn’t go on with it frustratingly. Last prep did get a nice win 2nd up at Pakenham in much easier grade then ran well in BM-70 grade. First up at Pakenham in easier grade ran very well. Not long enough between runs though for me to suggest the improvement to be the favourite here.
9. Magnagem: Has always looked a ncie type and has been well placed by the stable. 3kg claim obviously a key here to get an on speed position and to run it out. Just feel on what i’ve seen to date that even with the 3-wide no cover run last start that she is outclassed here.
10. Refuse to Lose: Another 3kg claimer onboard here. Last win was on Heavy. Best runs have been over further in the past but does handle the 1000m with little issues. Best has been on wetter surfaces. Would want a Soft 5 at best.
11. Lady Concord: Always looked a promising type but struggles to put runs together. Two runs to end last prep concerning to chances here.
12. Matilda Bird: Country runner. Not up to this grade on what we have seen to date.
13. Unique Storm: I wouldn’t ever count this girl out of a win.. always trys her best but does like to find at least one too good. Always goes around at overs. Needs to improve off last run obviously and may just be wanting a softer track. Look towards the Bool carnival with her.
Comments: Everything is in Grey Street’s corner here today and the price is more than attractive. Pilly’s Wish is the clear second pick on my ratings also. Very happy to be on both runners.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Grey Street for 2.5 units @ $3.20. Also back Pilly’s Wish for 1 unit @ $7.20
Caulfield Race 3 – 1800m – Selangor Turf Club Handicap
1. Temps Voleur: Last prep took 7-8 runs to get to the fitness level required to compete in this grade. Very average last start and needs the run.
2. Morning Mix: Obviously looked a nice type over in the UK when winning a 2000m maiden by 7.5L. Went on to run 4th in a Group 3 race. Last October didn’t show much in final run of prep. Has some ability and this distance shouldn’t be an issue.
3. Volontiers: Very disappointing run last start in much harder. Hasn’t won in 3 runs this prep and not been close in last 2. Improvement needed.
4. Commanding Time: Hasn’t gone close in all runs this prep in after a nice run in Summer Championships. Obviously his best is good enough but very hard to suggest.
5. Raw Impulse: UK Import who measured up to a solid level of company over there. First up won nicely at MV in similar grade over 1500m with a good ride. Didn’t beat much that day. Should run well.
6. Slivovitz: Two runs this prep and failed to look the goods on either occasion. Looking for the hurdles I’d imagine?
7. Kapset: Nearly got a win first up over 1200m and went on to win last start over 1600m in a much easier race. Looks to be wanting the 1800m on what i’ve seen to date.
8. Orient Line: Always had class and ability but hasn’t won in a fair while. Back to this grade you have to consider him a chance but never run at this distance in past.
9. Bantry Bay: Close 0.1L 2nd to Bondi Beach on a Heavy 2400m back in the UK as a maiden.. went on to win 2000m good track maiden the next start by 3. Went onto the Queens Vase over 3200m and ran a very solid 6th. 300 days between runs, looks the pick of the stable here.
10. Houdini the Great: 6 runs this prep and got a win finally in easier company 2 back at Pakenham, just holding out two runners. Last start ran nicely up in class over 1800m behind a few nice horses in ungrateful ellen and gingerboy. Has to be considered from this barrier.
11. Iteration: I have no idea what to make of this bloke. Looked an extreme talent when imported and just missed over 1800m two preps back. Hasn’t shown anything since. May need it wet?
12. Tips and Beers: Best is well and truly good enough to run well here, but hasn’t shown us too much on last few runs. Last start was an improvement but needs to find more here.
13. The Terricks: Hasn’t won in a while since a BM-64 grade win. Looks outclassed and outgunned here.
Comments: The $1.95 for Raw Impulse is just poison odds. No way I could even consider it. Bantry Bay is the clear top pick for mine in the race on odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Bantry Bay E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1440m – Wellington R.C. Handicap
1. Tonopah: Donald Cup winner last prep over 1600m. Very solid run first up at Mornington behind some nice form horses over an unsuitable distance. Up to 1400m and ready to fire with 59kg after claim.
2. Running Bull: Always been a solid horse. Two runs this prep have seen him well beaten though. 2nd last start but beaten 4.5L.
3. Here to There: Won three in a row going through the grades but found a few way too strong last start. Freshened and back to a dryer surface. Has ability clearly. Wide gate is awkward.
4. The New Boy: Finally got a win three back at Morphetville. Has actually run okay since but this is a much harder race here. He is actually going well enough to run well from the barrier.
5. Time to Test: Two wins in a row this prep going through the grades. Two trials leading into this to keep fit. Been set well for this.
6. Star Fortune: Two wins to start the prep but found a few too good at Sandown with a solid run. Can run well here but has to improve onwards again.
7. King’s Dance: Goes okay first up. Best runs have been over 1600m and this is a slight bit short of what his best is at. Will be on speed.
8. Armada: Another slowly going through the grades at more realistic targets. Just missed last start in easier grade. Went around favourite two back in this grade at Bendigo.
9. Distant Rock: BM-64 and BM-78 winners in the past. Hardest test to date and coming out here today off a spell off a disappointing run to end last prep. Improvement needed.
10. Harbour Grey: Looked a nice type all the way through the grades. This prep has been going well enough but still only won 1 from 5 this prep and went around $1.75 favourite last start and was beaten. Maps well.
11. Beluga Caviar: Nice win last start beating home Harbour Grey. Worse in today at the weights and a worse barrier also. Won’t get an easy lead.
Comments: There is no runner over $20 in this race which just shows how closely rated the runners here really are. I have to agree, it looks a nightmare to bet into.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Tonopah to win. Also back Time to Test.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1440m – Hyderbad R.C. Handicap
1. She’s Miss Devine: Very strong win last start at Sandown holding off a class runner in French Emotion who went on to prove her class last start with one of the runs of the day at this course. Will be on speed and hard to hold out.
2. Imperial Lass: Lasti win was over 2040m. Went all the way up to 2800m in Jan.. had a trial since but surely needs further.
3. Distant Dreams: Threatened to be a very good type of horse last few preps. Two runs this prep were horrible. Freshened but hard to see.
4. Lady Cumquat: Always seems to run nice races but hardly ever wins. Expect to be running on well from a good barrier.
5. It’s One: Strong win first up at Pakenham at massive odds. Big step up in grade again but hard to ignore the last start win.
6. Telopea: Put four wins on the board in a row after being imported before 342 days off. Two strong enough runs but beaten fairly both runs.
7. Boundary: Average run last start at Sandown and the previous run at Flemington. Peak was three back in Launceston…. should improve today.
8. Inishowen: Nice enough run first up in a similar grade of race. Up to 1440m should run well here.
9. Mefnooda: Nice dead-heat win first up at Mornington. This is obviously much harder but clearly she has ability on past runs.
10. Kansas Sunflower: A long time between drinks when won as a 3YO. Two runs this prep have been fair from good enough for me to suggest a win today.
11. Fair and Equitable: BM-70 grade win first up. Has measured up to this grade in the past.
Comments: She’s Miss Devine is the one to beat here, but the price is right on the mark here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: She’s Miss Devine
Caulfield Race 6 – 1440m – JRA Handicap
1. Lyuba: Three runs for three wins. Last start went around with a big weight on a soft track. Big distance to third that day also. Maps very well again on speed and weighted well.
2. Indarra: Horrible barrier. Will be going back in running. Looked a good type winning a listed grade race last prep but this prep has found very little to measure up.
3. Backstreet Lover: Won two in a row to start her career and then no disgrace third at Sandown last start. First up today after a few months off.
4. Deja Blue: Beaten 0.2L the last two runs by Lyuba. Slightly better weighted today and gets her chance again. Back to a dryer track the key. Big chance from barrier.
5. Magna Rossa: Not the worst run two back when 5th. Last start a bit unlucky in running but didn’t see it out as strong as i’d have expected. Has to improve onwards with the distance here to measure up.
6. Tiz My View: Well beaten both starts this prep. Hard to suggest the needed improvement on runs to date.
7. Francais: Waller stable. Four runs back this prep. Well beaten every chance the last two runs.
8. Jezzabba: Hawkes stable runner. Won 2 from 5 this prep and just missed last start at Sandown with a nice run on speed with a strong enough tempo set. Clearly has ability.
9. Air Apparent: Shown ability in the past. Needed to win last start to measure up to this today for mine.
10. Pearl Star: Three runs this prep and seems to have gone backwards. Has to improve on what we have seen to date to measure up.
11. Abbey Marie: Maiden win first up was obviously a strong win. Maps a long way back.
12. Dulverton: 5th in the Oaks. Won over 1600m in the past.
13. Zafiki: Nice enough maiden win. Well beaten last start in G2 grade. Expect a much better run today.
14. Jocasta: Maiden winner last start. Time only fair.
15. Rosenthal: Maiden win. Very well beaten at Pakenham.
16. Dymphna: 1.5L winner last start at Cranbourne from on speed. Time was average at best.
Comments: Wide open race. Tough to pick a winner. Lyuba will be hard to run past.
Confidence 55%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11
Strategy: Back Lyuba to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Sandown Park (UK) Handicap
1. Well Sprung: Huge improvement last start at Mornington well back in class. Simply too good. Not too much harder here.
2. Prussian Vixen: Won 3 of her last four races and only loss was to French Emotion which is strong form as you know. Weighted nicely with claim.
3. Invincible Heart: 3YO winner at Flemington and previous at Caulfield as well. Looks a very nice type on runs to date. First up but goes well first up and strong barrier also. Midfield with cover will need luck but a good ride can win this.
4. Stoker: Nice enough run close 2nd at Mornington from the back. Will be ridden more forward today from barrier 2 you would imagine. Weighted nicely with claim.
5. Equinova: Long time off coming into this first up which isn’t a great record for this horse. BM-64 winner last prep.
6. Ability: Went around very short first up after a spell and got the win. Trialled well since and going the right way. Barrier the issue.
7. Just Got Lucky: Bm-64 winner. Nice enough run last start behind Prussian Vixen and Stoker and weighted okay.
8. Our Vidia: Looked a ready made type last prep. Good win first up at nice odds and then 3-wide no cover 4th to Petits Filous… very sound effort.
9. Saint Valorem: Two wins in a row heading into this. Last start win was nice at Bendigo in a solid enough time.
10. Atlantic City: Very disappointing to end last prep. Okay on best runs but has to prove something here.
11. Fleur Fatale: Vobis Gold Ingot winner beating Danuki… hard to ignore that win! Weir runner.
12. Divine Mr Artie: Going okay enough in similar grade this last prep. Has some ability and goes okay first up.
13. Land of Freedom: Kav runner. BM-64 win on firm was okay first up. Well beaten 2nd up the big issue.
14. Nudierudie: BM-64 winner before spell last prep. Has ability but does generally start unders. Good barrier.
15. Destiny’s Reward: Well beaten by good types to end last prep. Has to improve onwards.
16. Tango Rock: Maiden only winner to date. Wasn’t the worst win ever though.
17. Chapel Road: Maiden winner by 3L. Solid enough win. has to improve.
18. Georgie’s Luce: Well beaten last start coming off a bm-64 win.
Comments: Wide open race as the prices suggest. Our Vidia looks a massive price today based on last start run and i’m very keen to have something on. I think Invincible Heart is the one to beat, but maps poorly.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 14
Strategy: Our Vidia for 0.75 units @ $17/$5 Each-Way.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Sheen Group Bel Esprit Stakes
1. Under The Louvre: Nice enough trials heading into this today. Top weight will make it tough. Wide barrier should see UTL get well back. Will need to be peaking to run on and win this.
2. That’s A Good Idea: Been off since two average runs in Nov/December of freshen ups. Best is obviously good enough. Trials have been solid.
3. Hellova Street: Good quality win to start the prep and then went on and won the Newmarket beating GeeGees Doublejay that is very solid form lines. Trialled nicely heading into this prep. May need the run, barrier very disappointing.
4. Pittsburgh Flyer: Group 3 winner. Very nice run first up in the Oakleigh Plate when 4th flying home from the back. Ignore the galaxy run and rate on best.. Will ride for luck from barrier and might just get it.
5. It Is Written: Hasn’t gone close in the top level in some time and even this looks just a bit beyond him. Happy to take on.
6. Unanimously: Trialled well as always. Found a few too good last start. Has to improve significantly.
7. Husson Eagle: Hugely disappointing run from the back at Oakbank as beaten favourite. Obviously her MM Sprint win was super but has to have obviously improved on last start.
8. Mirage: Showed very little first up only boxing on out front. Not sure he is going well enough at all for this.
9. Sheidel: Two forgive runs heading into this. Proven to be one of the better sprinters from over in the West and looks well suited here today if she can actually jump well this time. Good barrier.
10. Girl Guide: Obviously her best is well and truly good enough to measure up here, but it’s hard to trust her from this barrier off the form we saw last prep. Better over further.
11. Our Nkwazi: Big win three runs back at MV in a nicely graded race. Been spelling. Never won first up a big issue.
12. Beau Rada: Continues to run well and never runs a bad race. Just missed last start Bullpit holding him out. Will need to come from way back today.
13. Bullpit: Just continues to run well and continues to win. Has to improve but going well.
14. Java: Promised the world and failed to measure up to the dizzy expected heights. Last prep found very little. Has to be at top to win this.
15. Lonrockstar: Gone backwards this prep for mine. Has to improve to beat these.
16. We’re Got This: obviously a very good type. Good barrier. Will need luck from position in running.
17. Nozomi: Hasn’t been seen in yonks. Ran 3rd in a Vic Derby and beat home Preferment over 2200m the previous run! Also beat Zanteco the win before that. Needs the run.
Comments: Very hard race. Pittsburgh flyer gets the nod just over the favourite.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Pittsburgh Flyer
Caulfield Race 9 – 2000m – Beck Property Group Plate
1. Real Love: The Real Deal. Best runs in the past have been 200m+ and gets that today. Won a similar grade race in March over 2600m at Flemington. Failed to run out the 3200m for mine in the Adelaide Cup. Very well weighted with 57kg today for mine off a 40 day freshen up. Maps midfield from barrier.
2. Digitalism: Goes well over this distance based on previous runs. Cranbourne Cup winner. Two runs in over 1400m and 1600m were shocking but huge improvement in Yarra Valley Cup for a close 2nd to Falago and Berisha third who went on to win the Mornington Cup. Rates and maps well.
4. De Little Engine: Went through the motions last prep before getting the dream ride at Flemington to win a BM-96 2800m race. First up average at best over the 1600m. Clearly has to improve and best over further.
5. Survived: NZ import. Failed to measure up the first two runs this prep over the 1600m. Not sure 2000m is ideal either.
6. Tristram’s Sun: Poor last start at Sandown. Previous run was okay but not close to his best. Not going well enough.
7. Black Tomahawk: Huge win last prep beating Excess Knowledge over the 2400m here at Caulfield. Two runs back this prep well beaten both runs over 1400m and 1600m. obviously beter suited today but clearly best runs 2400m+
8. Genuine Lad: Two runs this prep over 1600m and not shown a lot. Working onwards to the hurdles it appears. Needs further.
9. Good Value: Hasn’t shown anything strong in a long time, but last start did a lot of work and ran very well 6th to Leebaz in much harder. Can run well.
10. Araldo Junior: Went through the grades last prep and got a cup win. Didn’t measure up to the top level in the Bendigo Cup though. First up average at best. Will try lead.
12. Kareeming: Far from his very best the first four runs this prep and then ran well last start at Mornington at huge odds, just pinched late by Velox who has gone on and measured up in harder races since. Maps well. Will go well.
13. Disclaimer: Not the worst horse going around today. Last prep 2L 4th in similar grade at MV. First up run was very poor over an unsuitable distance. Needs to have improved.
14. Golden Mane: Continues to run well but had her chance most runs this prep. Best is good enough.
15. Fieldmaster: Going around today in lead up to hurdles.
16. Doctor Care: Going well this prep. Boxed on well enough last start at Sandown. Has to improve again but can run well. Barrier hurts chances.
17. No Song No Supper: Going around to get fit for hurdles.
Comments: The market certainly has this one right with the runners expected to be well in this at the finish well backed here. Swoopers should have every chance last in the day. Real Love will certainly be hard to beat.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 9, 12
Strategy: Real Love to win.
