Welcome to The Profits form guide for 17 September 2016 at Caulfield! We got our Flemington form back on track last week with a very strong 14 unit win for the week thanks to two strong bets at big prices landing as best bets throughout the day. Hopefully we can continue the form with the very tough Caulfield form on offer today. I’m confident we are onto a few good bets for the day and hope our value plays are on the money as i’m expecting also. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Barthelona – 3 units @ $4.50. Inside Agent – 1 unit @ $14
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Secret Agenda – 1.25 units @ $3.60. Miss Promiscuity – 1 unit @ $4.20.
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 7 – Passing Shot – 1 unit Each-Way @ $23/$5.60.
Caulfield Race 9 – The Justice League – 1 unit Each-Way @ $41/$10
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 10
Leg Two: 4, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 20
Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 12, 14
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Track Report – Caulfield – 17 September 2016
Rail out 9m Entire Circuit (Previous 6m)
Wear and tear (Minor) inside 2-3 metres
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – November Relaunch @ Caulfield Glasshouse Handicap
1. Cauthen: Concussion Plates on. 3kg claim today. Hasn’t been seen in 730 days since failed to fire in harder company runs. At his best, he was a handy horse, but it’s really hard to suggest him here first up.
2. Lord Barrington: Horrible barrier draw today after winning at course and distance last start on a Good 3 surface. Beat Camdus and Bon Aurum that day and Bon Aurum has franked the form since. Did cross over and lead last start from an outside barrier. Best form is on dryer but still goes well on soft tracks.
3. Caprese: Well backed in most of his recent starts. 1600m back to 1200m. today doesn’t appeal when 1400m is his go.
5. Manhattan Blues: Wide with no cover last start at course and distance and finished off nicely enough 7th. Back to a soft track today where his best runs in the past have been recorded. Significantly better barrier today but will need luck if gets stuck the rail as expected.
6. Greipel: The wetter the better. Has been recording his wins at Wagga this prep and did run well three back at Bendigo on a Heavy 8. Showed nothing two back at Moonee Valley. Hard to suggest.
7. Judges: First up after 200 days last start at Geelong in easier grade when 7th. Previous prep ran a very nice 1200m 2nd at Moonee Valley behind Sirbible, but was still beaten 3L that day.
8. Ventic: Horrible run first up when found very little. Last prep improved 2nd up but was still far off a win. Hard to suggest on first up run.
10. Kapset: Goes well first up. Last prep got a win at Bendigo and was placed in similar grade at Caulfield over much further. His very best is over further but he always runs well over 1200m. Barrier helps.
11. Shillelagh: NZ runner. D Oliver takes the ride today. Recorded some solid wins in the past and goes well first up. Bandages first time a bit of a strange one but whatever i guess! Best win was on a soft 5 over 1200m. Need to be good.
13. Sanint Valorem: Very good win from the back last start at Geelong on a Soft 5 surface. Will get another wet track today that appears to suit. Previous run behind Hellbent was good and the form was franked also since. Good barrier and will be getting back, may simply just be too good even from the position in running.
14. Benchi Pegasus: Six runs into his prep and yet to get better than a 3.75L 3rd on a Heavy track. Back to 1200m and in similar grade. Hard to suggest a place.
15. Chase the Horizon: Ran home very well first up from out the back with a low weight. Goes okay enough on soft tracks on previous form and should improve 2nd up today. Maps to be much closer to the speed also. Big chance.
16. Truculent: Won nicely first up over 1000m at Pakenham before failing 2nd up on a soft track. Nice enough home last start and back in class today, but not on a soft track for mine.
17. Battlecamp: Awkward barrier today. Proved to be a nice type when ran 0.1L 2nd to Odyssey Moon at Sandown with Bassett a close third. First up never got a shot at them when blocked for runs and still finished off well. The wetter the better for this class runner.
18. Buckler: Trialed nicely on a Heavy track. First up ran well enough wide no cover beaten 2 lengths. Much harder here but does have ability.
19. Artie Fred: Two runs this prep for two very solid wins. Up in grade again today but does enjoy wetter tracks.
20. Luchador: Four runs this prep and failed to place the last three runs. Can’t suggest a place here on previous two runs.
Comments: This is a race of the proven runners against the up and comers. I want to take a set against Shillelagh here. I’m not convinced she is a top class type and she is first up in Aus which is a big negative. Lord Barrington is a massive price with the 2kg claim today based on the last start run and will only improve onwards. Battlecamp is obviously a good type also but just how much can we expect to see from the horse without a proper first up run. Saint Valorem is the real deal and can run a gallant race.. but I can’t trust the horse to get the right run required in such a big field. Chase the Horizon jumping better today will see a much closer and has the ability to win here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Lord Barrington to win. Also back Chase the Horizon.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Telstra Phonewords Supports The Alfred Foundation Plate
1. Dalradian: Looked a decent type as a 2YO but failed to measure up in 2nd prep. First up not disgraced in easier grade when 4th blocked for runs at critical stage. Has to improve but respect.
3. Dissolute: Stable has their horses going the right way at the right time. Finished off last prep with a 2YO win after failing to place as favourite the two previous runs in harder company. Seems to find ways to get caught wide throughout but thankfully Williams off today. Has ability but does need the right run.
4. Blue Tycoon: Horrible first up at Caulfield from an on speed position when fell out of it very quickly. Certainly much better than what we saw first up but I couldn’t be on today even from such a good barrier based on first up run.
6. Radcliffe: Maiden only winner. Blocked for runs first up from the back but didn’t exactly find the line either. Suggest the soft track won’t be a huge favour today nor will barrier 3 with his pattern of getting back to midfield or worse in races.
7. Barthelona: Strong win first up at Sandown when smashed a quality field on a soft track in a very respectable time. Horrible barrier today but will be getting out and running on at the right time. Has the turn of foot needed to win this. Class in the field.
8. Invincible Joy: Nice enough maiden win 2nd up before a respectable 2nd in BM-64 grade. This looks much harder and a poor barrier today.
9. So Si Bon: Looked a nice type as a 2YO when recorded a 2nd at Flemington to Southerly Wind. Last start won his maiden fairly and maps nicely again today. No dramas with wet track.
10. Zanahary: Two runs for the stable and shown very little. No.
11. Mr Tickler: First starter. Record of unseen first starters in city class recently is very good. Hard to dismiss.
13. Tris: Ran well last start at Sandown but was no test for Barthelona on the day. Hard to suggest the win here for the G3 winner for mine on the soft track.
14. Modern Wonder: Very strong 2F-LR winner in her first prep. First up run was very disappointing. Will go forward again today and if she improves can run well.
16. Decoco: Hard to ignore the very nice maiden win first up from start to finish. Good barrier again today will have her on speed and every chance.
17. Fast and Furious: Binaisse stable generally doesn’t put them into races like this without knowing they have fair ability. Can’t make a case on current form but a good run from the barrier wouldn’t be a total shock.
18. Inside Agent: Another unseen runner. D Oliver takes the ride is a big teller though… good barrier.
Comments: Barthelona looks an absolute superstar. The issue is how far back the horse will get from the barrier today… settle out the back and sustain a positive run from 500m out… has the ability to do it though so don’t discount one bit. One of my least favourite things is backing horses that I know will settle back especially at Caulfield, but i’m convinced they will have every possible chance today. Inside Agent maps to have the best run today from barrier 5 and D Oliver onboard the first starter, I’ve gone back and formed a strong opinion of it’s jump out and have to at least have a play.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Barthelona for 3 units @ $4.50. Inside Agent 1 unit @ $14
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – PFD Food Services Supports Lasallian Foundation Plate
1. Najmaat: 2YO winner at course over 1100m last prep. Two runs on soft tracks and never looked the winner on either occasion. Up to 1400m today suggests trained differently this prep. Nice barrier.
2. Serenely Discreet: Well backed first up in Adelaide in a much easier race and won well enough. Has to improve onwards and upwards again today though.
3. With a Bit of Dash: 2YO winner in Adelaide but failed to go close any run since. Hard to suggest on last start run.
4. Perfectly Safe: Simply ridden poorly last start and still ran Leotie to 1.4L over the distance. Will be on speed again today and expect them to be running it along faster today which will suit better. Handles wet fine. Can win.
5. Dynastic Lady: Maiden winner. Ran nicely next start at Rosehill on a wet track after missing the start. Wide barrier will be pushing forward if possible.
6. Clockwork Orange: Two wins in a row for this talented filly going through the grades. Best runs in the past have been on dryer.
7. Peeking Duck: Handles soft tracks. Maiden winner and couldn’t get the win last start at Sandown in easier. Has to improve.
8. Fromparis Withlove: Only run on soft was a big disappointment. Last start couldn’t win a maiden and I can’t see the win today.
9. Whyyouask: Maiden winner. Well beaten last two starts. Prefer wetter but hard to suggest here.
11. Lady Skills: Maiden winner at Bairnsdale. Failed to get the win in a CL1 with a low weight last start. Likes it wet.
12. Exocet: Geelong maiden winner on a soft track. Dunn keeps the ride but clearly has to improve and barrier is horrible.
13. Sognani: Blinkers first time. Maiden win first up was solid.
14. Outback Rain: Maiden winner. Well beaten in G3 to end last prep. First up this prep today.
15. Knew It: Expect to go forward from inside barrier. Well respected type that won well on a heavy track last start. Can run well.
16. Vainglorious: Blinkers first time. Couldn’t win a maiden the last two starts on soft tracks. Makes it hard.
17. Kamili: Beaten 5.3L first up in a maiden.
Comments: Wide open race on paper and no standout stars as of yet. Perfectly Safe will get a better run today and looks a solid E/W chance.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Perfectly Safe E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – MRC Foudation Handicap
1. French Emotion: Very disappointing 7th last start at Flemington off a slow tempo… expected her to have the turn of foot required to put that race away to be honest regardless of the wide run. Back in class does look much better suited again, but an even wetter track is a big concern.
2. Miss Gunpowder: Ignore she went around first up due to jumping poorly. Much better suited here today back to her own sex and up to 1400m here. Goes well enough on softer tracks also so you have to respect her ability. Won here in the past. Great barrier.
3. Miss Softhands: Blocked for runs last start when a massive run 7th behind Ocean Embers. Big issues with no real soft track form to date and horse does have feet issues.
4. Antelucan: Ran well enough first up from out the back in mares grade with a low weight. Needs to improve onwards today in weaker grade with more weight from a horror barrier. Expect Antelucan to not be last today to have a chance.
5. Clemency: Two starts last prep for two wins. been very well placed in the past and has been given a fair task again today. Best runs over slightly further, but 1400m is fine having won 4 of her last 5 runs. Loves it wet also. Barrier 6 will have her in the perfect spot.
6. Amarela: First up today. Best is normally seen a few runs into her prep and over slightly further than this. Handles wet tracks. Should be running on well.
7. Anaphora: Blinkers first time. Not the best run last start but expect improvement onwards today. Never won over this distance in the past an issue.
8. Tears of Joy: Never won first or 2nd up in the past. Coming off a good prep but best is clearly over further. Never won at track either. Does like it wet.
9. Alaskan Rose: First up. Last prep was 2nd in Group 3 grade and put the writing on the wall without getting the win. Best runs were over further than this.
10. Niminypiminy: 8 runs this prep and yet to record a win. Clemency beat her early in the prep… goes well enough on softer tracks and is okay weighted. Barrier is tough.
11. Majestic Lass: Huge disappointment last start when had every possible chance for mine on speed and just didn’t sprint. Easier race but still faces some very hard types. Has to improve. Huge price today though.
12. Cinnamon Carter: Needs further.
13. Takeover: Continues to run well without winning. Step up in class again… not for mine to win but I can see her placing if gets another good run from the inside.
14. Moulin: Couldn’t win BM-64 two back and unplaced in BM-78 last start. Just no here. No.
15. Raheen Lady: Struggled to get close in BM-70 grades this prep. No chance.
Comments: Can’t be overly excited about any runners here. Just have to play the overs which are Clemency and Miss Gunpowder. Antelucan and French Emotion are surely the main threats while Niminypiminy is certainly the value in the race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Clemency to win. Also back Miss Gunpowder.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1600m – Ladbrokes supports National Jockey Trust Plate
1. Cobbmore: Big step up in class here today after a BM-64 grade win. Handles soft tracks and handles the distance. Will be getting back today from the barrier.
3. Awake in Grinzing: Had to respect the run last start when missed a run but still ran very well on the day. Likes the soft tracks. Barrier tough.
4. Captain Duffy: Every possible chance first up and didn’t show a lot. Previous best is still well below what is needed today. Has to improve lengths. Not for mine.
5. Lord Macau: Blinkers again. Looked a good chance last start at Moonee Valley when leading but was gone very quickly at the end of the race. Softer track today should allow him to stretch out more and looks to be the only main leader in the race.
6. Odeon: BIG win last start at Geelong in a maiden. Loved the soft track and did previously over 1400m in 2YO grade when just missed at Flemington. Will sit forward today and should find a spot. This horse is the real deal.
7. Rocketeer: Ran very well for 2nd last start at Moonee Valley behind Hey Doc which is solid form lines. Up in weight today is an issue but maps okay and D Oliver onboard. Have to respect on the wetter track.
8. Benny Goes Berzerk: Well backed last start which was strange to me and he showed exactly what I expected, not as much as was needed. Likes it wet but I struggle to suggest here.
9. Eureka Street: Nice enough maiden win on a soft track at Geelong heading into this. Needs to find lengths onwards again today to be winning.
10. Land of Plenty: Did a lot wrong last start but still got the win at Geelong in maiden company. Handles wet and good barrier.
12. Junior Burger: Weir runner. Blocked for runs last start but was really never a chance. Hard to suggest back to a wet track again.
13. Kaching: Smashed them last start at Bendigo by 3.5 lengths in a maiden. Looks a very nice type on that win and looks to really love the wet tracks. Barrier doesn’t help chances here but really think he is a chance.
14. Larrikin: Disappointing run last start after a big $100-1 win beating Kaching at Geelong. Not convinced he will handle the wet track today, but the barrier gives him every chance if good enough.
16. Harlow Gold: 4L winner last start at Pakenham beating an average bunch over 1400m. Has been well backed today after the win… did measure up in first prep to 2YOF grade behind I Am A Star.
17. Khartoum: Couldn’t win a maiden last start doing a fair bit wrong.. even so, not convinced it’s good enough.
18. Wimborne: Struggle to suggest here even though he is back in grade.
Comments: This is a race where the form lines are just not clear enough to have any confidence to be betting strongly. This is proven by Cobbmore being given top weight. Kaching looks the most progressive horse but will have to circle the field to win this today from the barrier. I’ll be staying out.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Kaching E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Stakes
1. My Poppette: Best runs in the past have been on faster ground. First up run over 1000m didn’t really find very much and quick tturn around to see the extra improvement needed to beat all these home today. One i want to take on.
2. Miss Promiscuity: Fairly disappointing run first up 5th in G3 company last start wen I felt she should have finished off better than that. Goes so well at this track and wet is no issue. Probably just a better horse on the outside where you expect her to be sitting today and even better when there is speed on also. Respect.
3. Vibrant Rouge: Very good win with a low weight but didn’t have to really beat much last start off a slow speed able to sit 3-wide no cover. Going great guns but best seen on dryer.
4. Secret Agenda: Disappointing last prep when failed to get a win from 5 starts. Was competing in Group company to be fair all of those runs and did record a G3 2nd and G2 2nd along the way. Goes well on softer surfaces so will be suited by the track. Also maps nicely on the speed today from a good barrier. Goes well first up and at this distance… if she returns at her best she can win this. D Oliver onboard.
5. Atmospherical: Awkward barrier and will be going back. Nice enough run last start at MV when held up but never really a chance. G3 placed two back behind Wild Rain. Has ability but certainly has to improve.
6. Shakespearean Lass: Two runs this prep and failed to show much to entertain the idea of a win here. Others preferred.
7. Exclusive Lass: Looked a nice enough type five runs back but failed to show anything worthy of backing after that effort. Wet and no thanks for me.
8. Every Faith: Not the greatest first up record and best runs have clearly been over further. Not for mine here.
9. A Lotta Love: Shows her very best runs when allowed a no effort first 400m. Goes well on wet surfaces. Last start disappointing but not surprising with the run she had. Has the ability to win if ridden well enough.
10. Andrassy: Not the ideal track today for a horse that finds her best on dryer. Good enough run 4th last start when every chance leading with too slow a speed. Previous run showed she has ability… can run well but can she really beat this group home?
11. Ameristralia: Hawkes runner with a big wrap. Two runs for two wins this prep in strong style. Massive step up in class and looks under the odds from an awkward barrier for mine.
Comments: Miss Promiscuity, Secret Agenda and A Lotta Love are at the top of my radar for this race. I’m quite confident though that this is really a race to be won by either Secret Agenda or Miss Promiscuity and am happy to back both at the odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Secret Agenda for 1.25 units @ $3.60. Miss Promiscuity for 1 unit @ $4.20.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Fight Cancer Foundation Testa Rossa Stakes:
1. Hucklebuck: Always had loads of ability but was certainly frustrating last prep when failed to record a run better than 3rd. That being said, he ran a bloody good 3rd in the Orr 2nd up over 1400m when 3-wide the trip (even if he had cover) from the back. G1 winner in the past and trialled well heading into this. One start one win on soft.
2. Charlie Boy: He can be very hard to catch… last prep he had two trials heading into the G3 Liverpool where he got a very good run and won well off a hot tempo. Issues with the ground as he has never placed on a soft from 4 starts but he doesn’t go too poorly on it.
3. Yesterday’s Songs: Bar plates first time. As always will be getting far back in the run and running home strongly. Loves it wet and never really runs a bad race. Best over further though.
4. Keen Array: Very nice run last start when first up at Moonee Valley 2nd to Voodoo Lad. Back to a track where he has a good record today and 2nd up will have him fitter. 2nd in a G1 on a Soft 5 in the past so no real issues with ground today. Maps very well.
5. Passing Shot: I thought his run second up was sensational coming off a gut buster the run beforehand at MV. Finds an easy lead today and will be running on strongly late.. win wouldn’t shock me on a wetter surface today.
6. Santa Ana Lane: Blinkers first time. Ran horrible last start down the straight at Flemington coming off a great run 3rd behind Redzel here. Quick turn around questionable and i’m not liking him here today.
7. Dan Zephyr: Had his chances first up but found a few too good.. that being said he just missed a place going around a $50 chance! Handles a wetter surface and is a multiple time handicap winner… but probably better over further.
8. Taddei Tondo: 8 runs this prep and yet to get really close to a win. Goes well on all surfaces but on last three runs i can’t have.
9. The Virginian: Group 1 placed 3rd behind UTL and Black Heart Bart in the Straddy. Nice trial heading into this and D Oliver jumps onboard. Need a big effort to win this but has ability obviously.
10. O’malley: Horrible gate again today. Will be going back in the run and coming home strong late, again. Continues to run well without looking a winning chance this prep. Up to 1200m should help and so should a wet track.
11. Well Sprung: Good run last start at MV when wide no cover (when that lane did kinda suit) finding the line even with a ‘tough run’. Has to improve today and questionable on wet surfaces.
Comments: No surprise to see a lot of early love for O’Malley, but I just can’t take the odds on offer with no speed runner in the race outside of Passing Shot.. expecting the front half of the race to have the charmed runs. I’m a big fan of letting the speed map tell me how to bet and this race is pointing me only in one direction and that’s towards Passing Shot at the massive odds on offer.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Passing Shot for 1 unit Each-Way @ $23/$5.60.
Caulfield Race 8 – 200m – Bendigo Bank East Mlavern MRC Foundation Cup
1. Gallante: Group 1 winner over 3200m last start winning the Sydney Cup on a soft track. Previous run was a good 3rd over 2400m in G3. Maps nicely from an inside barrier today… while this is far below his very best distance range, it’s hard to discount him today.
2. Almoonqith: Nice enough run first up from out the back. Worked home well enough with the top weight and will appreciate the distance step up – but I feel the track condition is a big negative from barrier. Next start.
3. Excess Knowledge: G3 Lexus winner to get into the Melb Cup last prep. First run over 1600m showed very little to impress me… works better deeper into preps and up in distance… can’t see a win here.
4. Real Love: Massive first up run in the Feehan when ridden for luck and got home strongly held up for runs out the back for most the run. Looks well in here today and can settle much further forward. Happy with a wet track also.
5. Taiyoo: Never run well on a wet track in the past. Two runs this prep and hasn’t shown anything to suggest a big improvement run and win here today.
6. Jameka: Inside barrier today not exactly a positive when you expect they will be swooping out wide this late in the day. Best runs have been on dryer tracks, but in reality she handles soft just fine. getting up to her distance range… first up run was ‘good’ but last start was only average in my humble opinion… I’d wanting to take her on at the price.
7. Magnapal: Good run two back in the Lawrence when ran home well for a 2.15L 8th. Fair enough last start on the firm track off a very solid tempo. Will appreciate the extra distance today and a wetter track. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
8. Set Square: Found the line solidly enough last start at Moonee Valley when 3rd behind Real Love. Not the best wet track runner on form lines but shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Barrier makes it very hard.
9. Tall Ship: Very well backed late last start over 2040m when pulled up with EIPH. Down to 54kg today suits a lot better today. Will sit a little worse than midfield – strong stayer who wants to be battling from the 800m which could very well happen.
10. Berisha: Two runs in this prep and never really looked a chance in any of those runs. Last prep 2400m won very well in the Mornington Cup. Likes the wetter track but it’s really hard to suggest a win here over 2000m.
12. Observational: Very strong run first up from out the back in a race won by on pacers at MV over 1600m. Had a very big wrap about him last prep and was a close 3rd in the G3 Easter Cup. Looks to be going very well again this prep and looks a Caulfield Cup chance going forward. Handles wet tracks just fine and will like how this race is to be run solidly. Will take a good ride, but he has to be considered a big chance.
13. Tom Melbourne: Tip-toe Tommy returns after a nice 2nd to Great Esteem at course over 1700m last start. Tommy has shown in the past that he has the ability to be a top class 2000m horse. Interestingly he doesn’t have to always lead to win and i thought he had every chance first up. Nice enough in at weights and obviously a good barrier, but he does look short.
14. Swacdelic: Nice enough run last start at Moonee Valley but was never really a threat to the winners. Has to improve onwards and upwards today and i’m not sure he is super suited by the wetter tracks.
15. Gabella: She was massive last start at Flemington over 1700m when held up for runs after missing the start and getting far back, she hit the line solidly and I could argue that she should have won against the pattern of that race. Not very well weighted today and barrier 20 certainly hurts, but she has been backed for a reason and has top class ability over this distance. Suggest they will ride for luck by pushing forward and trying to get a spot if possible.
16. Second Bullet: I really liked the way he found the line first up for Lane who keeps the ride today. He will be better over further based on previous preps, but 2nd up last prep was just held off by Turnitaround and they smashed Killarney Kid on the day. Will be much further forward today even from the barrier and shouldn’t have any too much of an issue with the ground.
17. Zanteca: 2500m winner last prep. Three runs this prep slowly going up in distance and hasn’t shown a lot. Should run okay over the 2000m but still needs further.
18. Manndawi: Goes fine on wetter grounds. Last prep showed absolutely nothing. First up nothing also… This is his distance range but i can’t see it.
19. Master Zephyr: Nice enough run first up but then average last start over the 1600m back to firmer. Should enjoy the wetter surface and further today but not convinced he is good enough.
20. The Bandit: Solid unexpected run first up over 1600m from out the back hitting the line solidly with 60kg. Much harder race here though and never won at distance… but goes very well 2nd up and won only start on a soft track. Don’t dismiss.
Comments: Wide open quality race. Winner gets a Caulfield Cup place so there is a lot on the line. Tom Melbourne is around the odds I have him rated today so there really isn’t a lot of value. I want to take on Jameka at the price and there are certainly a few runners at value odds in the race. Second Bullet maps well and so does Real Love who have both put the writing on the wall. It’s Gabella that I keep looking back to after the run last start.. she looks suited here off the 54kg and if she gets luck, she is going to be hard to hold out. Observational is the x factor from out the back for mine also.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 20
Strategy: Gabella E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Sheen Group Handicap
1. Iggimacool: Never got a shot at them last start held up for most of the race over an unsuitable 1200m distance. Gets a wet track again today and back up to 1400m in a very winnable grade. Barrier helps also.
2. He’s Our Rokkii: Gone to the next level this prep it seems. First up won very well at course and distance in this grade. Probably harder race today overall but hard to fault him with a wet track today suiting, barrier 4 being an ideal draw and mapping a treat on how the track will play.
4. Mighty Like: Hard horse to catch. Back in class here after two very average runs. Horrible barrier today.. D Oliver onboard though helps chances.
5. Calvin Williams: Shown nothing since being in Aus. Not the worst run last start at Flemington when 7th. Could the wet track be the difference here?
6. Le Bonsir: Hasn’t won in several runs now or even gone close. Up to 1400m a throw at the stumps having never won at this track and with best form over shorter. Never won on soft.
7. Rough Justice: Held up for runs last start at Moonee Valley over the 1200m… didn’t get luck but i’m not exactly sure how much he had left to give.. not enough to win? Never won on a soft track but handles it fine… only run at distance was a win.
8. Tudor: Every chance on speed last start at Moonee Valley when fairly beaten. Was expecting more last start to be quite honest. 9 runs 0 places at this track in the past but has run some 4ths. Goes okay at distance and on soft.
9. Jungle Edge: Loves it wet. Was a very bold run last start with a low weight to stick on and run 3rd on the Good track. Gets the ideal track today but won’t get an easy lead.
10. Del Prado: Every chance last start and simply not good enough behind Hes Our Rokkii. Wetter today based on previous runs will help, but he hasn’t won in a while now and hard to suggest backing.
11. Gracious Prospect: Hasn’t shown a dime of form this prep. Not backable.
12. Sebring Sun: Not too sure what to make of the last start run apart from thinking a step up to 1400m would be ideal for the horse one time placed behind exosphere in Group 1 company over 1400m. Based on the two back run also the soft track should be no issues. Barrier the big concern.
13. Radical: Will get back from the barrier. Goes very well at the track and handles all surface types. Not over this distance though!
14. The Justice League: Blinkers on. Simply ignore the first up run when clearly something went wrong with the horse. This is a Group 2 winner who will appreciate the extra distance today. Maps perfectly.
15. Loyalty Man: Very good type that never runs a bad race. Only run at track last prep was a 3rd fairly beaten. Best seen on dryer tracks a big issue and never won first up. Like to see the run today.
16. Plot The Course: Bled last start. First up today and never placed in this class. Big ask here.
17. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Ran well last start in much easier grade when 3rd to Vostok with every possible chance. Will appreciate the soft track today… others preferred.
18. Polar Vortex: 0.9L off Tally to end last prep has to be respected somewhat. First up every chance and plain. Not for mine on first up effort.
Comments: He’s Our Rokkii is everyones good thing of the day and while I don’t disagree on the horses chances, I’d need closer to $3.40 to be getting involved for units here. The massive chance at odds on my ratings is The Justice League.. the horses very best runs are more than good enough if we simply forgive the first up run as having an issue.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 12, 14
Strategy: The Justice League for 1 Unit Each-Way @ $41/$10
Caulfield Race 10 – 1700m – Mortimer Petroleum Gold Nugget
1. Foundry: Every chance first up when ran fairly for 3rd from on speed in an on speed dominated race. Average barrier today and similar grade and distance. No dramas with the soft track.
2. Nevis: Looked a very good type when won two in a row from start to finish then last two starts has been very disappointing. Should be suited here but hard to tell what he will produce.
3. Sonntag: Needs further surely.
4. Tarquin: Fairly beaten by many lengths first up. Up to a more appropriate distance today but even so it’s hard to suggest he will have improved significantly on what we saw first up and previous form suggests he needs a few runs to get going.
5. Refulgent: Old mate can put a batch of good runs together and that’s what we can expect today coming off a win at Sandown. Suited by track distance and surface from barrier 1.
6. Shamkiyr: French import that has a peak rating on a soft track. Gets that here today… first up showed nothing…. but Weir stable and Nolen takes ride.
7. Lord Durante: Old mate ran well from on speed last start and just missed at Moonee Valley. Obviously push forward again today and handles soft or good tracks.
9. Profit Share: Two runs this prep have both been very disappointing. Goes well on softer tracks but not convinced he is going well enough just yet.
10. Pinstripe Lane: Two runs this prep and shown very little. Doesn’t handle wet tracks either. Take on.
11. Count of Limonade: Hasn’t won since 2014. Hasn’t placed in last two preps.
14. Electric Fusion: Fairly beaten last two starts but ran well both times. Never won on a wet track in the past a big issue here. Can run well from barrier 3 but certainly hard to suggest a win.
15. Magic Consol: Continues to run well without winning with a 3rd 2nd 3rd 2nd and 3rd on record. Harder race here also.
16. Freshwater Storm: Old mate hasn’t gone it anymore? Best on dryer.
17. To Be Honest: Good win at odds last start at Sale on a wet track. Big step up in grade and distance here and is 6 runs for 1 place at track.
18. Wheatsheaf Flyer: Fair run last start but didn’t measure up to top grade. Goes well on wet tracks but hard to see the win.
19. Golden Oldies: Showed nothing first up. Big concern 2nd up.. needs the run.
Comments: Wide open race to end the day. Shamkiyr is the big watch horse at odds here. No real confidence overall in betting though.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Nevis to win. Smaller bet on Shamkiyr.
