Welcome to The Profits form guide for 16 July 2016 from Caulfield. We are set for a very hard day on the punt with full fields of depth at Caulfield today. More importantly, the weather has been clear the past few days so we will get a Good 3/4 track with marking on the inside 3.. with the rail out 10m.. we just can’t be sure exactly how the course is going to play apart from expecting them to get 2-3m off the rail late on. Four bets appeal for me today as suggested below. Fingers crossed as always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Lonegeron for 3 units @ $3.80 to win
Next Best Bets
Caulfield Race 7 – Duke of Brunswick for 1.75 units @ $2.90. The New Boy for 0.25 units @ $17
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Little Bita Spunk for 0.75 units @ $17/$4.40 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 6 – Fast Approaching for 0.5 units @ $17/$5 Each-Way
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 16
Leg Two: 3, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 14
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – TROA Supports Jockey Trust Handicap
1. Hell of an Effort: First two runs last prep were of high ratings.. then failed to fire later into the prep suggesting something went wrong between the 2nd and 3rd runs. Shin soreness as a early 2YO potentially. Expect him to come back firing here.
2. Lessyd: Measure dup to the top level as a 2YO in first prep with a win at Flemington down the straight and a respectable 3rd to a very good horse in Valliano when blocked for runs and well back in run. Good barrier today should see a nice spot in run.
3. Wazzenme: Maiden winner who reproduced a very solid effort last start at course and distance when 2nd to Yu Long Sheng Hui. has to improve onwards again for mine to measure up here on the Good track.
4. So Si Bon: Went around a big price first up and ran well for a 3L 2nd to a nice type. Obviously barrier 13 isn’t ideal and will have to improve significantly again.
5. Gloriette: Williams jumps off Lessyd to keep the ride on this talented filly today which says alot about the horses hopes. Awkward barrier today but should get a nice run throughout.
6. Havildar: Yet to win a race. Failed at this level last prep. Have to have trained on well.
7. Mi Astro San: Couldn’t get within 3.8L of a win only run last prep. Hard to suggest.
8. Reddington Secret: First run for a lesser known stable.. but they still do get some good types.
10. Sebrikka: Good win first up this prep in similar grade. Will need to prove her class again to win here. Well in at weights with claim but the Stable doesn’t have as one of best of the day.
11. Sistine Saint: Market only guide for well bred Gelding. Good barrier. Drifting.
12. Armedandangerous: Well beaten on Heavy only run to date. Obviously hard to rate on that run when back to a Good track here.
13. Toorak Rose: Nice enough Heavy track win at Moe. Will go forward again today from barrier.
14. Sprung Dancing: No weight today. Will get a spot midfield. nice enough run last start behind Yu Long Sheng Hui and is an outside shot.
Comments: Hard race to open the day with. From barrier 3 Wazzenme maps to get the ideal trip today and is the top pick in a race with several chances.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Wazzenme to win
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – ACJC Racing 101 Handicap
1. Fireworks: Didn’t do much first up and may need a few more runs this prep to really get into it over further. Never won on a Good track.
2. Lady Esprit: Tough barrier today to get the perfect spot in running. Ran very well two back at Flemington but then last start when had every chance at course over 1100m on a softer track didn’t finish off… may be wanting the dryer track. Don’t dismiss off last start.
3. Majestic Lass: Drawn the inside barrier to get a nice spot in running, but will certainly need luck from midfield to get the right run. Handles this track well and first up on Synthetic in MUCH easier won very well. The stable pick in race.
4. Anatola: Very good horse that had been flying at home and went into last start very short in the betting. May just simply have not let down on the soft track like quite a few horses that day. Very best runs in the past are more than good enough to measure up here today – expect to be much further forward today over the 1200m from this barrier.
7. Powerful Story: Maiden winner… ran nicely two back behind a form horse in Thelburg and then last start 3-wide no cover ran well 4th behind Petite’s Reward and Sky Dazzle. Similar weight today.
8. Better Strike: Maiden winner two back. Last start in BM-64 grade well beaten as favourite. Been freshened up but even so hard to see the improvement needed.
9. Blithe Belle: Well beaten last start at Sale behind some good horses. Previous start maiden win was only average. Has to improve.
10. Deconi: Nice run first up at $100-1 for 4th at Moonee Valley 1.9L 5th.. just 0.5L off 2nd. Last start at Sandown looked beaten a long way out.. back to a shorter straight will suit and up to 1200m also looks to be more suitable. Good track no disadvantage.. could be the difference really.
11. Make Her Own Whey: Very disappointing run firs tup when no money came for her either. Hard to suggest on previous runs… but she did run 2.35L off Heatherly over 1100m over 1100m last prep on a Good 4 at Flemington.
12. Stylemaker: Maiden/FM-58 winner… two runs this prep have been average at best. Struggle to suggest here.
13. Smokin’ Valentina: Maiden winner. First up run was substandard. Take on.
14. Single Note: Not the worst runner here. Has run well enough in city class in the past, but last three runs suggest a lot of improvement required to win here.
15. Sew It Seams: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Hard to take here.
Comments: A 13 horse field with three runners rated $5 or less and five under the $10 mark suggests just how wide open this really is at the top of the ratings. Personally, I give hope to several runners in this race. I have a slight lean to Majestic Lass as long as she gets the right run of course… she comes off a solid win while the other favourites need to ‘improve’ from ‘forgive’ runs. With the scratching of the expected leader in Sky Dazzle, If Anatola jumps well today she will certainly be in a good spot into the straight.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Majestic Lass to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 2000m – Wilson Medic One Handicap
1. Hursley: Good win last start at course and distance in this grade. Much dryer today a big concern and barrier will make it tricky to get a spot. Top weight by 5kg a big issue.
2. Fearless Raider: Nice enough run 4th last start behind Hursley and the crew at course and distance from out the back. Down in weight and expect him to sit closer than last today from the positive barrier and a lack of more than 4 horses that will push strongly forward.
3. O’lonera: Ran well for 3rd last start behind Hursley. Down in weight again and finds a 1.5kg claim also. Have to respect from a very tricky barrier.
4. Palace Tycoon: His last start was a good run… but he doesn’t put in the good runs very often these days. Hasn’t been at 2000m for a long time but is best suited by distance. Low weight but huge step up in class.
6. Big Quid: Well beaten in a BM-64 last start at Pakenham. Will appreciate the Good track once again… down in weight and up in distance suit.
7. Perfect Lifeline: 4L maiden win on the Pakenham Synthetic coming into this race. Stable believe he should measure up to city class. Has to make the step though and the Synthetic form doesn’t always transfer.
8. Anzio: 3L win two back at Pakenham. Defeated on heavy last start at Moonee Valley in much easier… goes best on dryer tracks.
9. Bring a Rose: 2200m maiden winner last start.. was still green but won well. has ability to improve.
10. Rosenthal: Two back run was good enough to measure up here but last start failed to fire. Up in distance should suit.
11. Tossilini: Blinkers on. Failed to make a mark though last two starts and only run in 3Yo grade wasn’t good enough.
12. Affectation: Beaten 14 lengths in BM-58 last start… obviously prefers it dryer like today.. but even so hard to see measure up here.
13. I Am Ruben: Couldn’t win maidens this prep in much easier races so it’s hard to suggest he measures up to this grade and wins.
Comments: Not the easiest race you will ever bet into. At the weights and back to a dryer track I feel you just have to take on Hursley today. Fearless Raider is certainly much better weighted today and will enjoy being more forward in running, but this is the horses first ever run on a firmer surface so it’s hard to know what we will get out of him. O’Lonera has the previous runs on the board for mine and can push further forward today also to get a better spot in running with the very low weight on offer.
Confidence 55%
Strategy: O’Lonera to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – Rockmount Pretraining Handicap
1. Longeron: Couldn’t have been more impressive last start if he tried. Huge win really and he even over raced throughout. Back to a dryer surface but it won’t be rock hard firm so no disadvantage.. even so he handles and goes fine on good tracks. Hard to beat.
2. Au Revoir: Appreciate the dryer track today. Been well beaten all three runs this prep so it’s hard to suggest a win even on weight turn around.
3. Kapour: Best runs in the past have been on wetter tracks than presented today, that being said almost won a Grafton Cup on a firm track so i’m not sure it’s a huge disadvantage either. 3rd up and should be peaking.. but even so can he really make up the 3.3L on Longeron?
4. Self Sense: Every possible chance last start when fairly beaten by Longeron at course and distance. Need to improve significantly.
5. Golden Mane: Never runs a bad race but hasn’t seen a win in 7 runs and this is one of his hardest tests to date. Back to dryer track helps compared to last two starts. Will be fit and does get well in at the weights.
6. Bondeiger: Every chance to run Longeron down last start and was simply not good enough sustaining a long run that ended after 400m. Back to firmer helps but finds himself equal at weights with Longeron.
7. Gingerboy: You really get the feeling he is solely in this race to set the speed up for Bondeiger out the front. Yes, his runs this prep over 2000m have been decent on Good tracks, but even so it’s hard to see a win here.
8. Scherzoso: Disappointing horse to follow at times, seems to run well without winning too often. Up to 2000m.. only win this prep was over 1400m as well. Sure, he is going well and 51kg makes it hard to disagree with his chances… but even so he is a hard horse to follow at the odds.
9. Temps Voleur: Will bhe pushing forward (led 3 of last 3 races). Best runs have been on all surface types so no issues today. Continues to run well without winning in these class of races.
10. Schockemohle: Ignore he went around last start, that race doesn’t count. Suffers at weights for that run also today. Never won in this class and i’m not convinced he is good enough to measure up here.
11. Northern Journey: Well beaten the last two starts over similar distance. Huge step up in class and 16 runs 0 wins on a good track.
Comments: Longeron is a huge price considering all the runners in the race today. Yes, the barrier is the only main issue today for the horse with a few ‘forward runners’, but that really doesn’t concern me… sit 3-wide for the first 600m, i’m okay with that as long as the horse doesn’t pull it’s head off and is rolling and comfortable, that’s how you get the best out of this horse.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Lonegeron for 3 units @ $3.80 to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap
1. Mr Individual: Old mate led and ran a respectable 4th in Group 3 class last start. Back in class here and top weight. 3kg claim certainly handy… maps to get a sit just off leaders or outside of leader. Step back to 1400m today.
2. Divine Mr Artie: Continues to run well and just continues to miss a win. Last start very good run from out the back through the back just missing. Much smaller field today should give him every possible chance if good enough back to a dryer surface which I believe will help.
3. Stormcraft: Very very poor last start at course when favourite on the day. Didn’t take the step up after a good win on Synhetic. Back to a dryer track. Has to improve and measure up again.. has ability but has everything to prove.
4. Devils Pinch: Well beaten favourite on a Heavy track last start at Sandown in easier grade. BM-64 winner before that… struggle to suggest the ability to defeat all runners today.
6. Little Bita Spunk: Huge on speed run last start at course and distance when a close 5th claimed late in the piece. Low weight again today and back to a dryer track is ideal. Has the ability to go very well here.
7. Portion Control: Beaten fairly first up by Stormcraft. Beat Makatiti last prep which is a good form line. Has to measure up in harder class.
8. Downhearted: Looked a nice type winning two from last three but both on Synthetic. Failed on heavy. Has to improve.
9. Equinova: Nice enough runs heading into this today but has to improve obviously.. 0 places from 3 starts on good tracks a concern and never placed at track.
10. Twisted Typhoon: Close 2nd to Makatiti last start at course and distance. Runs well on Good tracks also. Good barrier will get a nice spot in run.
11. Atlantic City: Over-raced last start and was well beaten early in the straight. Back to 1400m where he ran well three back… never run well at this track or around a short bend track either.
Comments: Little Bita Spunk comes into this with a low 54kg after claims and most importantly should get a fairly easy lead from the inside barrier. I really liked the effort last start and back to a dryer track will suit. The clear value in the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Little Bita Spunk for 0.75 units @ $17/$4.40 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – National Jockeys Trust Plate
1. So Does He: Very good win at this distance and in this class last start at Sandown on a soft track. Stepped down from two good runs in harder class before that. Best runs in past have been on good tracks for mine. Claim of Dunn helps… will need a good ride to get a perfect position in running though.
2. Curragh King: Awkward barrier and will be going back in the run. Coming off five runs prior this prep, his best run was in much harder two back when 2nd in a Cup race over 1600m. Steps back to 1400m which doesn’t seem as ideal and dryer track.
3. Hard Call: Will be pushing forward today first up. Goes well at this track and won in BM-84 grade over 1600m two runs back at course. Very consistent and strong efforts every time and goes well at this distance. Hard to dismiss.
4. Marwood: Doesn’t win often but certainly runs consistently most of the time. Very good run last start in harder grade to run 2nd to Duke of Bruswick last start at course and distance. Last win was on Good but that was his first ever win from 10 starts on a good track… better suited to wetter… have to consider.
5. Caprese: 1200m winner in this grade four runs back at Sandown on a soft track. Three runs since and has failed to threaten on all three occasions with 1.7-3.1L defeats. Bad barrier today… will need a good run.
6. Best Suggestion: Third up today. Won first up in this grade and was blocked for runs last start when beaten favourite behind So Does He. Maps well from barrier.
8. Fast Approaching: This horse is a real enigma for me. She isn’t the most talented horse you will ever find but the stable always place her consistently well grade wise. Up to 1400m and in a very winnable grade today back to a dryer track. Claim important. Tactical early speed important.
9. Camdus: Old mate ran a ripper first up just beaten flying home from midfield. Horror barrier today and first time rider a big query. 1400m is his jazz but he has to prove himself at this grade to start with.
10. Elite Tiger: Ignore he went around last start. Two and three back runs good enough to measure up here… but i would note the wetter track form is better than the dryer.
11. I’m Ablaze: Talented type who i have a lot of time for. Did a lot wrong last start and blocked for runs… back to a good track for the first time in a while and will appreciate the change. Maps nicely. Win won’t shock.
12. Mick’s Hustler: Nice win first up but failed to get close since. Never won in this grade in 4 attempts (never placed).
13. Soosa Rama: Doesn’t win out of turn this girl and hasn’t seen a win since early 2015. First up well beaten. Has won in this class and measured up to much better in previous attempts. Back to a dry track key.
15. Sang Choi Bao: Beaten favourite last start at Pakenham on the Synthetic. Up in grade here where he is just one from 13 in the class. Never placed at track. Has to improve.
16. Sharif: Gets a run from a very wise barrier. Beat my boy Miller Street and looked very good doing so. Will need a gem of a ride to measure up.
17. Scapa Cove: Beaten favourite when ran wide last start behind So Does He. Has ability but last two efforts below best.
18. Prima: Needs further for his very best. Here for a run.
Comments: One of the harder races of the day… several chances in the race. Fast Approaching looks the horse best mapped, best weighted and best priced. The price has me betting small here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 16
Strategy: Fast Approaching for 0.5 units @ $17/$5 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Lucrf Super Supports Jockeys Plate
1. Hosting: Hasn’t gone close in his past three preps. Hasn’t won since 2014 and hard to see that reversing here.
2. Gracious Prospect: Very poor overall first up over the 1200m. A month between runs and up to 1400m should suit. Back to dryer surface but hasn’t ever won from 6 attempts here is an issue.
3. Duke of Brunswick: Hard to talk ill of this talented blokes runs this prep. Won very well last start with relative ease at course and distance in easier class. Similar weight today and barrier 2 will give him the ideal run off the speed today, probably a little further back than last start. Dryer track today the only concern but for mine, his best run in the past was on a Good surface.
4. Lord Durante: Old mate is hard to predict. Almost ran down Charmed Harmon four runs back at course and distance. Was an okay run next start but last two have been below par. Has to be back to best.. won’t get an easy on speed position either.
5. Majestic Duke: Average first two runs in this prep. Up to 1400m but even wants further. Has ability.
6. Royal Island: Well beaten last start behind Duke of Brunswick. Hard to see a form turn around against this class of runner.
7. Sadaqa: Well beaten first up and no real excuse on the run either. Best in the past proven to be good enough but does find better later into prep over further.
8. Ulmann: Every chance last start first up behind Duke of Brunswick. Much better weighted down 2kg today on the Duke though and a dryer track should be more suitable.
9. The New Boy: Ignore last two starts on softer tracks. Best runs come on Good tracks. Won here five runs back course and distance. Big chance with claim getting him well down in the weights.
10. Leica Day: Best runs last prep over 1600-2000m. This is too short i’d expect… but is 2 wins from 2 first up runs in the past so Weir does know a thing or two.
11. Benchi Pegasus: Looks beyond his very best this. Take on.
Comments: Duke of Brunswick and Ulmann are the two clear top raters in this race, but only one of them represents a spec of value in Duke of Brunswick. The New Boy rates very well with such a low weight.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 9, 4, 3, 8
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick for 1.75 units @ $2.90. The New Boy for 0.25 units @ $15
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Sir John Monash Stakes
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Stable are very keen on his chances here and so is the market. Continues to measure up at the top level without finding a win. Was a very valid 4th in Group 1 company last start. Good barrier should see him not get too far back. Dry track important. Goes well at Caulfield.
2. The Cynic: Import first up in Aus. Hasn’t won in three preps. Last win was a 2 length win over 1000m beating Peniaphobia in Group 3 class… pretty good ford. Since then did run 0.1L 2nd to Peniaphobia in Group 1 class. Last two preps have seen him well beaten though which is concerning. Was well backed in last run. Won’t be respected but clearly has to be.
3. Lord of the Sky: Trailled like a beast heading into this today but really would have loved a lot more rain to be around… will still be soft enough. Best is more than good enough but hasn’t shown that in over a year. Testing material here.
4. General Truce: Well below best 2nd up at Flemington. Doesn’t bring his best form to this track and well up in grade. I can’t have him.
5. Le Bonsir: Good hores but not up to WFA-G3 level based on what i’ve seen first two runs in.
6. Thermal Current: Nice enough win last start in MUCH easier grade than this on a soft track. Previous runs suggest still limited ability compared to this grade of race.
7. Weinholt: Surprised last prep with some decent runs in easier grade than this. Can’t see a win first up.
8. Mirage: Weir is a genius, but this bloke is very hard to train and he hasn’t been able to turn him into a winner this prep, so i can’t suggest a win here.
9. Tudor: Never won first up in the past. 8 runs at track for 0 places. Never win in class. Best runs over further. Tough ask.
10. Trevinder: His a decent type of horse but his ability is certainly limited to much easier races than this. Take on.
11. Olivier: Very disappointing loss last start to Daytona Grey on the line. Three and Four back runs suggested he was going through the grades but hasn’t been able to measure up to the best of the best just yet.
12. Runsati: Huge run first up 2nd to Odyssey Moon at Flemington. Maps to get a nice spot in running and a win wouldn’t be a total shock on current form.
13. Wild Rain: Well backed today. First up which is a concern as the horse has never won first up previously. Never won at track or in this class. Previous preps runs were very solid though behind good horses. Have to consider.
14. Girl Guide: Impossible horse to catch on it’s day. Hasn’t won since 2014 but the ratings out of her firs tup run last prep suggest she would go very close here.
15. Atmospherical: Never won at track from 5 attempts. Best runs have been in easier grade. Hard to suggest a win against this group.
16. Kayjay’s Joy: Progressive type that got a win in Mares grade first up. Well beaten in Group grade last start though a big concern.
Comments: The way I approach these types of races is simple. I want to be taking horses that have measured up at the top level – Group 1 races. Fast ‘N’ Rocking, The Cynic and Lord of the Sky are the three horses that meet this criteria. Having walked the track, I feel the swoopers will have every chance late in the day and Fast ‘N’ Rocking has to be the top pick here. I also can’t let The Cynic go past without a bet on.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, 14
Strategy: Fast ‘N’ Rocking to win. Also back The Cynic.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – MyPunter.com Handicap
1. Vibrant Rouge: Good run last start when got shuffled too far back in run and still finished off strongly. Back to a firmer track today is a big improvement and will be very well suited by the pattern expected late in the day.
2. My Sister Lil: Goes well first up. Never won at track though. 1400m 0.4L 4th to Azkadellia last prep on the record. Better over 1400m…. but has good form lines over 1200m also.
3. Miss Softhands: Currently experiencing hoof problems which gives me no confidence in the horse today. Her best would be good enough to measure up but hard to have today knowing what we know.
4. Nadeem Lass: Been running well without getting close to a win. Been a long time between wins. Weighted well enough here but hard to see the improvement needed to get a win.
5. Shades of Bella: Good win in Mares grade two back at Caulfield on a Good surface over this distance. Last start further back than expected and didn’t see out on the soft track. Best is good enough.
7. Anyaas: 2nd run for the stable. First up found very little. Best is still a bit short of what’s needed.
8. Beirut: Won three in a row coming into this.. two on heavy. Too dry in this grade to consider at the price. Massive unders.
9. Eklands: Huge step up in class here coming out of country runs. Best seen on wetter surfaces.
10. Kansas Sunflower: Very nice run last start 4th to A Lotta Love. Better suited to dryer track today also. Goes well in this class and barrier helps chances to get a charmed run.
12. Elle Excite: First up run was promising then failed to show anything exciting since. Struggle to suggest the win but could place.
13. Kaniana: Best form is over further than this. Lesser chance.
14. Takeover: Nice run 4 runs back when 2nd to Shades of Bella at huge odds. Failed to fire since.
Comments: Can’t believe Beirut is favourite here. Take it on for sure. Kansas Sunflower looks the best weighted and mapped here on recent runs.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Kansas Sunflower to win.
