Welcome to The Profits 2016 Caulfield Cup Day Preview on 15 October 2016. It’s been a fairly interesting Spring and with Hartnell (who spanked the Caulfield Cup favourite Jameka by a lazy 3 lengths hard held last start) going to the Cox Plate, so we are left with a fairly wide open race. Overall we are very blessed with a strong card of races to bet into with some clear standouts on the card as well as a bit of value. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – It’s Somewhat – 4 units @ $2.60
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Tycoon Tara – 3 units @ $3.10
Best E/W Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Our Boy Malachi – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.6/$1.85
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Inside Agent – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 6
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – MyPunter Plate
1. Tris: Good barrier today and will push forward to be on speed most likely outside the leader today. Up to 1400m first time back in class. G3 winner as a 2YO. Well beaten first up and well beaten last start. Has to improve but looks up to this.
2. Flying Jess: Two runs this prep and has failed on both occasions. Las tprep won a G3 over in Adelaide off an only average run previous to that. Not sure the field was al that flash that day and they went slow.
3. Skylight Glow: Strong form lines heading into this prep and didn’t disappoint with a 0.6L 3rd to Swear and 0.3L 2nd to Foxplay before 4th last start over 1600m in Group 1 class. Back to 1400m ideal and looks well in even from wide barrier.
4. Want to Rock: 1000m Flemington winner on Debut then beaten 3.3L, 6.6L and this prep 6.3L and 4L. No thanks.
5. Sylpheed: Very strong win last start at Caulfield in easier grade than this from just off the speed. Awkward barrier but should get forward and position okay. D Oliver onboard again today. Rates well up to 1400m.
6. Another Bullseye: Rattled home over 1600m last start after a 1300m maiden win. Was a solid performance hitting the front 200m out but 3 others went past. Step back to 1400m will have her well in here down 1kg and back in class.
7. Gogo Grace: 3YO 2nd to Benz two back before failing from on speed last start at Flemington over 1600m in a race where the top 8 in running sat 8th or worse. Expect to roll forward today but has questions on the ground today.
8. Jennifer Lynn: BM-64 winner only just last start in the country. Much stronger class here back to dryer also. Average mapping today from barrier 10.
9. Exilia Miss: 2YO winner…. then failed to fire the last 3 starts. Up to 1400m today after the first up run will be better suited but even so I struggle to suggest a place.
10. Swampland: Maiden winner. Sectionals suggest it was a win of a horse that can take this step up in class. Respect!
11. Rather Silky: Maiden winner over much shorter. Best runs have been on wetter tracks. Only fair last start.
12. Lebombo Rose: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this. Hard to suggest even from a good barrier.
13. Star Patriot: Still a maiden and for good reason.
14. Petition: Nice enough run last start at Pakenham and two back behind Legless Veuve showed ability. Has to improve but don’t ignore.
Comments: The price on Sylpheed is nuts! That is a crazy price! Tris and Swampland look the standouts on the prices set to improve up to 1400m today off what looks a well suited tempo for both runners.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Tris and Swampland
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Polytrack Gothic Stakes
1. Valliano: Will be on speed. Stable expect a much better effort today with “Big improvement” from a better barrier. Ran well enough two back behind Saracino in a hotly run 1200m down the straight at Flemington. Winner at course over 1200m in the past.
2. Trenchant: Horrible first up and well backed in last start over 1400m and ran as expected, terrible, again. Williams keeps ride and nothing changes here. Take on.
3. Inside Agent: Huge first up run missing the start here and flashing home. Last start at Flemington was a massive win from out the back claiming them late. Looks very well suited here again and i’m certain he will be sitting further forward than last start from the inside barrier.
4. Morton’s Folk: Obviously a quality horse never missing a top 2 spot in 2YO grade. Went to open class for an easy kill first up in BM-74 grade at Rosehill and won well circling the field. Looks a nice type and has to be considered.
5. Nikitas: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Group 2 placed last prep coming off a non-form run… has to improve here.
6. Curvature: 2YO placed behind Trenchant last prep. First up ran nicely 4th behind Benz. Poor barrier today a big negative but up to 1400m a big bonus.
7. Acatour: Very well backed today as favourite. Yes it was a good 3L win at Rosehill beating an average BM-76 grade race. This is 3YO-LR grade and this is harder. Awkward barrier and will be getting back in the run i’d imagine needing a bit of luck. Respect his ability but couldn’t have at the price.
8. Mount Panoroma: His no bathurst race car! Three runs this prep and well beaten on all three occasions. Hard to have even on last prep form that was good.
9. Peacock: Did a bit wrong last start at Flemington but found one well too good with Inside Agent. Better weighted today and good barrier will get a nice run. Have to consider.
11. Simply Invincible: Maiden winner on heavy. Handy run last start behind Inside Agent when fairly beaten. Nicely weighted but has to improve lengths again here.
12. Violate: Caught the eye with a luckless run last start at course and distance going for a rails run from the back. Maps to get a better spot today off the rail. Win won’t shock at all.
13. I’m Telling Ya: Won his maiden well but since then been well beaten both starts. Hard to suggest on last two runs and poor barrier.
14. Apiata: Nice enough run 5th behind Benz at Moonee Valley. Big step up in class here though. Has to improve.
Comments: Peacock, Violate and Inside Agent are the three that catch my eye outside the obvious Morton’s Folk and Acatour. Inside Agent has drawn a barrier today and i’m certain he will be much further forward if jumping well and he is more than good enough to match the best Sydney has put in here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Inside Agent – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.20
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Crown Lager Alinghi Stakes
1. Miss Promiscuity: Not suited the first two runs this prep in races lacking in strong tempos which is where she excels. Expect a much stronger tempo on today and she looks well suited back in class again. Maps well enough.
2. I Love It: Two runs last prep with a placing in Group 1 class and a fail run. Never placed at track but has run well here for 4th in a similar class of race. Awkward barrier makes it tough but clearly has ability.
3. Almighty Girl: Group 3 winner last prep over 1200m and a 0.1L 2nd to Heatherly on the record. Beaten by Miss Prom at course and similar distance last prep and poorly weighted here compared.
4. Flippant: 4YO Snowden mare. Won an Open race at Wyong two preps back. Last prep 1 run and fairly beaten by a few okay types. Has to improve.
5. Palazzo Pubblico: FM-lr winner at Doomben over a similar distance. Last two runs well beaten in harder company but were soft tracks. Hard to suggest.
6. Vezalay: Failed to get a win or a place last prep but did run well at all times not defeated too far. Goes well enough first up and good barrier.
7. Super Cash: Strong win last start at course and distance when truck loaded by the punters. Up in class here but obviously has the ability. Maps well from barrier 6.
8. Chloe in Paris: Horrible first up in WFA-G1 class. Previous prep listed winner. Hard to suggest even on previous preps based on first up.
9. Alucinari: Godolphin runner third up. Well beaten fairly in harder company last start. Prefer others especially from this barrier.
12. Aunty Mo: Clear leader on paper. Ran well enough first up over the 955m when fairly beaten. Has to improve 2nd up well up in class here but should be suited at distance.
13. Aegean Sea: Fairly beaten from on speed last start in BM-72 grade which is a concern. Can run well from on speed but others preferred.
14. Belsapphire: FMB-64 winner last start. Huge jump in class and can’t see it having come through from BM-58s this prep.
Comments: Not the easiest race. I think Miss Promiscuity is the class horse in the race at double figure odds. She has been running well without being suited and should improve onwards and upwards here. I Love it and Almighty Girl both also have the class. Super Cash has the runs on the board while Vezalay is one to watch also first up today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Super Cash and Miss Promiscuity.
Caulfield Race 4 – 2000m – New Zealand Bloodstock Ethereal Stakes
1. Moqueen: Hard to contest the potential ability of this filly after her strong win last start over 1600m at Randwick. Should be well suited up in distance again on another firm track.
2. Sebring Dream: Ran home well enough 6th last start behind Global Glamour from well back in a front runner dominated race. Looking for further again but looks well suited here if they decide to run.
3. Bella Sorellastra: Strong flashing run 2nd to Serenely Discret last start at Flemington. Clearly will get further. Barrier only issue as she will have to go back further than they would hope to be today from the 15.
4. Savvan: Maiden winner heading into this. Obviously bred for further but really hard to see the massive improvement needed again today off that slowly run 1600m win.
5. Eleonora: Maiden winner well backed last start at Flemington when never found clear running and didn’t tell us alot. Gets 1600m on previous preps so shouldn’t be an issue at the 2000m. Has to obviously improve.
6. Whyouask: Blocked for runs last start at Flemington but didn’t exactly go on with it after that either. Big step up again up in distance.
7. Timao Grace: Weir runner. Beaten 0.1L in a BM-64 race in the country last start on a soft track. Back to 3YO grade and up to 2000m looks suitable… but big improvement needed again. Good barrier.
8. Bettyrae Ruby: Maiden winner heading into last start at Flemington and ran like the 100-1 pop it was. Hard to see up in distance again here on previous runs.
9. Madam Stryker: Heavy maiden win heading into this. Hard to suggest when 0 places from 4 runs on a good surface.
10. So Distinct: Griffiths stable runner that won well at 100-1 at Mornington last start. Probably even better suited up in distance. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
11. Nina Peak: Two runs this prep in maidens and yet to place. Last start favourite and ran 4th at Mornington. Obviously wanting further today but hard to see in this class.
12. Red Velvet Swing: Yet to get a win in any grade. Hard to suggest on form.
13. Arohata: Beaten favourite last start in maiden class at the bool on a heavy track. No thanks.
14. Von Richter: 2nd in a maiden and then last at Flemington last start in similar class.
15. Kamili: Two runs and heavily beaten both times. Step up in distance should suit on breeding but impossible to suggest even on that today.
Comments: There are some nice and progressive types in this race and there are also some real trash runners. I can’t see a reason to drop off Moqueen here today after a very solid win last start in similar class at Randwick and maps well here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Moqueen E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 2000m – Ladbrokes Classic
2. Good Standing: Every chance last start at Caulfield in the Guineas when found a few too good on the day. No disgrace at all though and maps as well here today. Will he really be getting the 2000m today though successfuly is the question. Short backup no issues.
3. Throssell: Well backed favourite last start at Flemington when beaten a long way and pulled up with an irregular heart rate. Still yet to be proven above 1400m due to the issues last start and I couldn’t be jumping in here especially from the barrier.
4. Wine Bush: Big improvement last start to not only break his maiden but win well at Flemington in similar grade. Step up in class again here but he is right up in this.
5. Rocketeer: Consistent type that just fails to find his way to a win. Got too far back from a poor barrier last start at Flemington but still ran a huge race. Maps much better here and will have every chance.
6. Inference: Put the writing on the wall as a very good horse two back at Pakenham. Last start was rather flat at Moonee Valley behind Hey Doc. Has to improve here today up in distance but this stable is flying and know what they are doing.
7. Highlad: Wide barrier but clearly the only leader in the race. Will push forward and go around at his own base with D Oliver controlling things out front. Has the ability to go all the way.
8. Kent: Too far back last start at Flemington sitting out the back. Ran home nicely enough for 5th but was never really a hope. Poor barrier again today doesn’t help chances.
9. Odeon: Another that found his way running home without ever being a threat last start. Up in distance and better barrrier today. Minor claims.
10. Wimborne: Midfield last start and found the line well enough 6th in similar grade. One that does look outclassed though. Place at very best.
11. Beach Life: Maiden winner. Well beaten last start at Flemington with no issues that day either. Just doesn’t look good enough to me.
12. Positive Carry: Maiden winner. Ran very poorly last start at Flemington over the 1800m. Hard to see the improvement.
13. Larrikin: Maps much better today with a lack of speed runners in the race. Last start got caught wide with no cover the trip in a race where the backmarkers finished top 5. Win at odds won’t shock.
14. Waterloo Sunset: Ran home very well 3rd behind Serenely Discreet last start at Flemington and looks very well suited to the distance increase. Better barrier the key here also.
Comments: I have questions over Good Standing staying the 2000m today but it’s hard to back anything else in the race to completly beat him with only Highlad putting speed into the race. Inference is the one that interests me the most outside of Good Standing.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Good Standing to win. Also back Inference.
Caulfield Race 6 – 2000m – Princeline Pharmacy Coongy Cup
1. It’s Somewhat: WFA-G3 win last start by 4.8L but that was in a 4 horse race and only really had to beat Spiritjim. Even so, he is running well with three runs this prep with a 3rd to Winx and 4th to Hauraki prior to the win. Clearly a top class horse and looks well suited to sit just off the speed today.
2. The Cleaner: Old mate actually ran very well two back and not too bad last start either when given an average ride. It will be on for young and old out the fron today with Tom Melbourne pushing the pace also. Will need to be The Cleaner of old to win.
3. Maurus: Huge run from too far back last start at MV when 2nd to Real Love who is equal 2nd favourite for the Caulfield Cup this afternoon. Only issue today is how far back he is expected to get. Will be coming home strong late.
4. Vanbrugh: Returned to form last start with a very nice run 2.7L 9th behind Hauraki with 51kg. Obviously up 3.5kg here but back in class, he does have to find a length or two up to the 2000m but this is his Group 1 winning distance. Nice barrier and the speed will be on to suit.
5. Bring Something: Ran a huge race 3rd to Royal Rapture first up over 1700m. Much harder race here today a bit issue but they can’t have him going better and looks to be a chance.
6. Tom Melbourne: Just not going as well as theyw ould like him to be. Beaten favourite the past three runs and won’t get any favours out the front today.
10. Calvin Williams: Showed nothing the past three preps until almost pulling off a win in a very poor Bairnsdale Cup last start beaten by New York. Big step up in class here again.
11. Nozomi: Only average runs first two runs this prep then dropped back to BM-84 grade and won well at course over 1800m. Huge step back up in class today from a bad barrier. Not suited by pace.
12. Rose of Virginia: Showed nothing last start even with the low weight. Wanting further.
13. Honorious: Two runs this prep and shown very little. Goes well over this distance but hasn’t for a few preps. Weir runner so anything can happen but can’t see it.
Comments: Three key runners here today in It’s Somewhat, Vanbrugh and Maurus. It’s Somewhat maps to get the perfect run today while Vanbrugh and Maurus will be a little further back in running. They will be getting spaced out and that will advantage those closer to the speed.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: It’s Somewhat – 4 units @ $2.60
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Schweppes Tristarc Stakes
1. First Seal: Very flat run first up when had every possible chance and didn’t run into a place. Not the best second up record either and hasn’t ever run at this track a big concern. Same weights today against Tycoon Tara. Awkward mapping.
2. Tycoon Tara: Big win last start at Rosehill from start to finish leading all the way in a very nice strong time. It was a 2 length win that day and she finds herself in very well here for a stable with a strong record at this track. Clear favourite.
3. Pearls: Good horse having already won a Group 3 fillys race this prep. Fairly beaten last start by Tycoon Tara and equal weight today. Will be in the same position as last start today.
4. French Emotion: Returned to her very best last start at Flemington running down a fairly average bunch of mares if i’m honest. Maps awkwardly today but has the clear ability on dryer tracks to put in the right sectionals.
5. Catch a Fire: Huge disappointment last start. Can return to form and run better today but has everything to prove and has to do it from wide.
6. Danish Twist: Well backed today after a very strong WFA-G2 0.2L 3rd behind Takedown. Group 3 winner in the past over 1400m and loves a dry track. Barrier a concern and will need to go back and circle them here.
7. Vibrant Rouge: Never seems to run a bad race having run third four of her last six runs with a win in there. Will run well again today but not winning. Barrier doesn’t help chances.
9. Jessy Belle: Continues to run well but hasn’t won in over 15 runs even though she went close off a slow tempo two back at Flemington.
10. Denmagic: Big run two back at Rosehill but fairly beaten last start even though she ran very well. Good barrier to get a run for luck today.
11. Telopea: Every possible chance last start at Flemington as favourite. Two back in Group 1 ran well 3L 8th. Clearly top class ability but has everything to prove and poor barrier will get caught 3-wide.
12. Shillelagh: Massive win from last at course over 1440m two weeks back. Strong sectionals. D Oliver jumps off to ride Danish Twist says it all really.
13. Satya: Nice horse but huge step up in class and hard to see the win on current form.
Comments: It’s impossible to pass up on Tycoon Tara today at this course over 1400m with an ‘uncontested’ lead… nicely weighted having won 3 of her last 4 with WFA-G2/Group 3 and FM-Gp2 wins along the way staying at M-GP2 level. Danish Twist looks the main danger but will have a lot of trouble getting a good spot from barrier 13.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6
Strategy: Tycoon Tara – 3 units @ $3.10
Caulfield Race 8 – 2400m – BMW Caulfield Cup
1. Preferment (57kg): Dispite winning the BMW over this distance in the Autumn, there is still a query over him at the 2400m today. The last few preps he has shown some form before a grand final, but there has been none of that at all beaten over 6 lengths all three lead in runs including last start beaten nearly 4 lengths by Jameka. Top weight makes it very hard especially from barrier 15.
2. Our Ivanhowe (56.5kg): Doomben Cup winner in the Autumn over 2000m and the Timeform rating was higher than any the internationals have produced ever! First up ran very well for 5th in the Makybe Diva over an unsuitable distance. Never got going last start behind Hartnell in different shoes and was simply a forgive run. Important inside barrier today to get a very nice spot midfield at worst and can go one or even two better than last year on best form. Well over the odds today. Most important part about this horse is his turn of foot off a strong tempo as shown in the Doomben Cup when held up on the rails until about the final 350m when got the chance and went past them after found his feet. If anyone tells you his a wet tracker, just tell them his best run to date was a Group 1 win on a Good 3 and then tell them to stop listening to the radio.
3. Exospheric (55.5kg): Hard to ignore today based on the Timeform information with the highest career peak on record of the international runners. Most importantly today, excluding the Ascot fail where the horse failed on the good to soft track, the horse has recorded 121+, 122 and 121 Timeform ratings. A tough out and out stayer that will be getting back and doing his best work over the final 600m-800m. Query over the glue on shoes today for mine.
4. Scottish (55kg): Comes into this race today off a career ‘peak’ at York winning in August matching the Ayr September 2015 peak of 119 Timeform rating… scoring a 119+. Previous two runs this prep were 116+ and 116+. Has tactical speed and from a positive barrier will get forward in running. His first ever run in a Group 1.
5. Sir Isaac Newton (55kg): Comes into the race with the second highest Timeform rating of the internationals, one below Exospheric (which works out at the weights today). Ignore his very last start and look back to his two previous runs where he produced a career peak of 119 followed by a career peak of 121+. Can sit handy enough to be just off midfield off the rails which is the important part and will be let go with a solid final 800m sprint. From where he will be in running he should get a good tow into it behind a horse like Real Love or Tally.
6. Tarzino (54.5kg): Beaten 7L, 6.1L, 7.4L and 8.1L this prep yet the stable are pushing onto this race today believing he is doing the right things at home. On his best form lines, he clearly is a big chance here, but it’s all but impossible to see that specific run today based on previous starts this prep when compared to previous preps. Maps to sit just off the speed.
7. Almoonqith (54kg): Never got going last start at Flemington on the firm track conditions according to the stable. Similar conditions today and well up in class over the 2400m. Looks to be really wanting 3200m+ to find the potential for a win. Sandown Cup, not Caulfield Cup.
8. Sir John Hawkwood (53.5kg): Sat on speed last start in The Metrop and won very well over some second and third rate types. Previous prep in G2 Brisbane Cup ran well just beaten 2nd and has previous won in G3 company. No issues over the distance range and a good barrier today.
9. Articus (53kg): Group 3 winner over 2000m and then beaten 5th in G1 in Munich last start. Timeform rating of 113 on Flat. The last four runs this prep have been 113, 112, 113 and 112+ ratings. Rates WELL below the other international horses on what has been shown on the track to date. A bit of hype around about him but I couldn’t touch him on form or from the barrier.
10. Tally (53kg): Group 2 winner last prep and Group 1 placed just 1.3L behind Jameka that day and meets her better off at the weights. Ran well first up before a very good Turnbull run heading into this out the front facing the breeze in a fast run high rating race. Only big issue today is the barrier.
11. Jameka (52.5kg): Comes into the Caulfield Cup as clear betting favourite having won just one of her last nine races. That win, while deemed ‘special’ was a fairly average Naturalism which saw Gallante, a horse wanting 3200m, run second – no surprise with the genuine tempo. Second rate horses such as Berisha, Set Square and Magnapal filled the top 5 that day. Last start in the Turnbull she was beaten 3.2L by Harnell (hard held final 100m). with 3 lengths to Tally and Preferment in third and fourth. Preferment hasn’t been going well at all this prep and doesn’t exactly frank the form of Jameka here while Tally was a huge run on speed off the hotly run tempo. She has won just one of her last 9 races! Now that i’ve given you the negatives, there are also clear positives such as her ability to jump and position forward as well as her staying power. Most importantly, she sneaks in low down in the weights. Only concern is the fact her peak rating has been on a soft track.
12. Real Love (52.5kg): Gone through the grades very well this prep running well first up second over the unsuitable 1600m. 2nd up ran well without impressing in the Naturalism when simply not suited by the sit and sprint nature of the race on a slow track which wasn’t ideal either. She was really well backed last start in the JRA and got the sectionals run out front she was hoping for, sat closer to the speed than expected from a nice barrier and won with authority. Looked the ideal lead in to this race today and she gets in well at the weights. Barrier 10 has her in a good position 2 or 3 wide with cover.
13. Set Square (52kg): Wide barrier and is likely to push forward to be on speed based on how poorly she ran the past few starts. This is certainly expected to happen to ensure there is a more than genuine tempo set for Jameka in the race. Can run well but on previous form i can’t see a place.
15. Sacred Master (51.5kg): Ran home well last start in the Metrop off a G3 win at Newcastle in the Cup the previous start. Decent barrier today and will be just off midfield. Stable think he is a sneaky chance with the low weight today. G2 winner back at home in NZ and placed in G1 Auckland Cup.
17. Pemberley (50.5kg): Simply amazing to consider this horse is even competing in a Group 1 race. Handicap winner two back at Murtoa, then last start ran 3rd in the Herbert Power beaten by Big Memory and Assign.. but was in the finish. Nicely weighted but really struggle to suggest this horse has the class to finish closer than 5th. Horrible barrier.
18. Go Dreaming (50.5kg): Listed class winner. Fairly beaten last start in the JRA Cup behind Real Love. Can’t see the win today. Expect to push forward from the inside barrier to be on speed.
19. De Little Engine (50kg): Sneaks in off a very low weight. Ran home quite well from the back last start behind Jameka and Tally etc and meets them much better at the weights. Will be out the back and running on. The harder they go the horse it could suit.. but even then, the horse has to improve a lot to place.
20. Vengeur Masque (50.5kg) SECOND EMERGENCY: Only got up to a 106 Timeform Rating back home before flying out here to compete for the new stable.
Top Chances
Jameka
Our Ivanhowe
Sir Isaac Newton
High Chances
Real Love
Tally
Exospheric
Medium Chances
Scottish
Sir John Hawkwood
Sacred Master
Articus
Tarzino
Low Chances
Preferment
Almoonqith
Set Square
De Little Engine
Pemberley
Very Low Chances
Vengeur Masque
Go Dreaming
Comments: Our Ivanhowe is the top pick here from Jameka and Sir Issac Newton/Exosphere. Happy to back all four.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: 1 unit Our Ivanhowe. 2 units Jameka. 0.5 units Exosphere. 0.5 units Sir Issac Newton.
Caulfield Race 9 – Dilmah For Lovers of Tea Caulfield Sprint
1. Lankan Rupee: More than a year between runs. Ran so far below his best level that last run after 6 months off due to a back injury. Huge weight today and will need to be at his vintage best. Can’t leave out of quaddie but can’t back either.
2. Our Boy Malachi: This bloke is a potential superstar. I think they are doing everything right with him and expect he will run very well here on speed suited by the tempo. Big chance.
3. Faatinah: Horrible ride last start. Walker gets the boot and Bayliss back on. Will be pushed to the front and pushed to run fast times. If you can get past, so be it!
4. Wild Rain: Consistent type. Can win. Big run 3rd in WFA-G1 last start. Very well in with 54kg.
5. Hellbent: Will be off the speed today running on late. Not convinced he will be 100% comfortable by the tempo being set here and this is a big step in class. Hard to justify the quote. Lay of the day.
7. Ruettiger: Good horse as proven last prep with Group 4th to Sooboog. Well outclassed at weights here.
8. Viddora: Very nice run 2nd to Heatherly last start. Big step in grade here though and has to find lengths.
9. Take Pride: Old mate well out of place here. Should have been going to an easier race and winning after a good run last start.
10. Orujo: 3rd at Grafton last start… not here.
11. Sunday Escape: Goes well enough in open grade but won’t be winning here.
Comments: Top five numbers are the clear horses to beat. Can’t leave Lankan out of it even with questions today. Hellbent is the lay of the day at the price.. it’s a crazy price with the speed expected to be on, Hellbent just won’t have the same turn of foot in a race run completely differently. Our Boy Malachi was MASSIVE last start in WFA-G2 and back to 1000m is IDEAL the way he ran last start 3-wide no cover. Wild Rain is a big chance also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Our Boy Malachi 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.6/$1.85
Caulfield Race 10 – 1400m – Labrokes Moonga Stakes
1. Good Project: Blocked for runs but no real excuses first up. Probably needs further to find best and gets up to 1400m. Better later into runs.. never won 2nd up from 5 attempts.
2. Stratum Star: Old mate lost his way a little bit but nearly ended last prep with some wins. Horrible first up but never over 1400m. Has the ability to win but does map to need alot of luck to get a good spot.
3. Famous Seamus: Nice enough runs heading into this. Up to 1400m looks ideal based on two back run 3rd to Chetwood. Maps very well from barrier.
4. Takedown: Two starts for two wins this prep. Up to 1400m a query but stuck on strongly over the 1200m off a hot tempo last start suggesting it shouldn’t be trouble. Nice barrier again to get the charmed run.
5. Smokin’ Joey: Old mate hasn’t won in years. Can’t suggest.
6. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Massive unlucky run last start in Group 1 company at course and distance. Very well weighted again and wider barrier will mean no rails bad luck. Get back run on well.
7. Sertorius: Old mate needs further than this.
9. Durendal: Ran very well last start off the slow pace out front at Flemington down the straight. Suited up to 1400m today off that run from a good barrier. Does need to improve still but goes well here.
10. Mabeel: Group 1 winner over from NZ. Best distance in the past has been 1600+ but should have no dramas at the 1400m. Good barrier and well suited.
11. Hopfgarten: Always seems to run well when in form. Got off it for a prep but last two preps have been solid. Good run heading into this at Flemington.
12. Voodoo Lad: Group 1 2nd last start at course and distance. Well weighted here and well suited again.
13. Turnitaround: Old mate needs the run. In for a good prep but not here.
14. Adirondack: Hard horse to catch. Last win was over 2000m and while he won first up last prep, he has never measured up to this grade.
15. Dan Zephyr: Hard horse to catch. Continues to run well always but this prep has been a few lengths off what is required. Tough to see it today.
16. Lucky Liberty: Good win in much easier grade last start. Horse in 2nd isn’t exactly a world beater. Clearly needs to improve and from barrier looks a take on.
17. Dane Thunder: Well beaten last three starts in easier grades. Take on.
Comments: Wide final leg. Tough way to finish the day. Mabeel looks the value of the race along with Famous Seamus. Voodoo Lad and Takedown the two to clearly beat.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Famous Seamus E/W
