Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on the 14 October 2015. We are back at Caulfield again for a Wednesday meeting. The rail remains in the True position and apart from feeling a little softer under foot, you can’t expect much of a difference in the trend of where winners will come from (any position in the run, trending to shift 4-5 wide in the straight). Quite confident that we come out of today with a profit backing the two best bets. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Miss Rose de Lago Each-Way
Consistent type that measures up to this grade and distance. The only speed horse in the race, she will be given every possible chance to lead with whatever speed is desired out the front. Most importantly, her late sectionals are consistent and she is very hard to get past. Playing on a 1.5 units to win 2 units to place model in this race.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – He or She Each-Way
Running well in harder company, this is a step back in the right direction for this talented gelding. Runs behind Kenjorwood, Charmed Harmony and Iggimacool all measure up above this grade of race. As long as he handles the tricky barrier today and gets a nice enough position with speed on out the front, he will be coming over the top of them late. Playing on a 1 unit to win 1.5 units to place model in this race.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1600m – Spicer Thoroughbreds Handicap
1. Gamlin’ Guru: Two very average runs this prep. Up to 1600m today but never won at distance. Needs further than this to find his best.. 62kg top weight.
2. He or She: Continues to run well without winning… but he has been in races that haven’t suited this prep. Today he gets a winnable race with no strong tempo in the race today. Barrier is the only issue but expect them to be coming over the top late. Big chance.
3. Mighty Like: A load of work out the front last start at Moonee Valley and ran fairly but was well beaten. Equal weights today… first run ever at track… has to improve. On speed runner.
4. We’re Gonna Rock: How many horses will he beat home? At least they have taken him back in class today. Couldn’t touch him especially over this distance. Looks a stab in the dark.
5. Zebrinz: Threatening to break through and a win wouldn’t shock well back in class today, but he will certainly have to circle the whole field to get it done. Dunn jumps off.
6. Lunayir: First up run was horrible. Previous prep run also. Previous prep to that didn’t get close enough. Take on.
7. Real Time: Obviously a quality horse on what it has shown to date. had every chance the last two starts and beaten both times. Needs to improve to beat these today.
8. Baron Archer: Old mate continues to be backed but continues to disappoint. Back in class weighted quite well today only thing in his favour.
9. Sir Berus: Last start was okay but not sure he is going well enough and hasn’t won in three preps… placed just twice in last 14 runs and this is the hardest class to date.
10. Darragh: Huge run last start at Caulfield in much easier class and was very tough not to get the win. Has to improve though at the weights up into this grade today.. not sure i could back at the weights.
11. Harare: Maiden only winner to date. Went okay three preps back over this distance.. but since then nothing.
Comments: Not the strongest race you will ever see, but there are some horses that get their chances back to BM-90 grade. He or She is clearly the top rater for mine and looks well over correct odds with $4/$1.70 available on the E/W. Baron Archer and Real Time have to be considered chances and so does Zebrinz. At the $151 available, We’re Gonna Rock is probably worth a 5er spec in this grade with the distance increase. Mighty Like has to improve on the last start run while i think Darragh is too short at the weights today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: Back He or She for 1 unit to win and 1.5 units to place.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Catanach’s Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes
2. Haptic: Every chance both runs this prep on speed and just not good enough. Didn’t even get close both times is the issue, but we do know he is a good horse.
3. Black Vanquish: Looked a very good type first prep. Last start breathing issues and 100% a forgive run. Massive overs.
4. Keen Array: All you can do is win and continue to improve and that’s what Keen Array has done this prep. Strong maiden then BM-64 win… got beat by Bassett but was because of the speed not that he didn’t run well.. redeemed with a big win last start. Certainly the real deal but ratings suggest he has to improve again today. Barrier is good.
5. Raphael’s Cat: You can’t take anything away from his first up run at Flemington coming off a good win at Canterbury the previous start. With Kinglike scratched the Cat maps to get every chance with a gun run.
6. Mogador: I don’t understand the price today. As a 2YO he lost two races fairly heavily. Yes his maiden win was good at Rosehill but he didn’t beat much.. then he only just got the win last start at Warwick Farm. Yes he will probably be suited by the way the track is expected to play, but he is unproven at this grade.
7. Dark Steel: Maiden winner. Failed first try in Group class this prep and 2L off them in 2YO company. Struggle to suggest that his good enough on runs to date.
Comments: The price on Mogador is well unders. The scratching of Kinglike has thrown up a different market and the adjustment is to promote Raphael’s Cat higher up the order at the price on offer which is now the best value runner of those at the top of the market. Black Vanquish is a huge price and has to be considered also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Raphael’s Cat to win. Smaller bet Black Vanquish
Caulfield Race 7 – 1600m – Nine West Ladies Day Vase
1. Miss Rose de Lago: Very well in today at course, distance and in this class at the weights. Clear front runner today on paper and will run it to suit which is generally a bit of pace on. Handles any tempo. Top pick.
2. Lady Cumquat: A long time between drinks for this mare and her last three placings on record all over 2000m+. Needs further and needs to be later into preps.
3. Iggimacool: Flat disappointing run last start at course and similar distance. Went around as favourite in that run so the price today does look a touch of overs in a race that will have the speed to suit. Barrier a massive issue.
4. Lucky Lago: Too far back last start at Flemington from a poor barrier and finished off nicely for 3rd. Will be much closer to the speed today and last run at this distance was a strong run in similar class. Has the ability.
5. Paris Match: Best run in the past over similar distances was on a heavy track. First up ran just okay at Rosehill. Has to improve significantly to win at this distance today.
6. Kayjay’s Joy: Just continues to go through the grades. Hardest test all prep this one today and won’t be given an easy time… but does map well once again which helps.
7. Inishowen: Lead in run showed very little. In the past has ran 5 times in this grade for 0 places. Hard to have.
8. Redasun: Run well enough in much easier grade first up and then last two runs in easier company have been ‘okay’. Back to dryer should suit today, but has to improve to measure up to this grade.
9. Alleyoop: Did a lot wrong last start and well beaten. Previous run blocked for runs but was okay. Another that has to improve.
10. Amarela: Nice win last start at course in much weaker class. Has run 2nd in 3YOF class previously but this is the hardest test to date.
11. Into The Mist: Ran a valid 4th in 3YO-LR class at distance to finish last prep and 2nd two runs before that. First two runs have been good wins in much easier class…. big step up here but clearly has ability.
12. Holy Cow: Struggle to suggest on any of the recent form.
Comments: A few chances in the race on paper. Into The Mist could be anything and has to be considered a chance, but certainly maps awkwardly from the gate and will need a bit of luck to get a great run. Kayjay’s Joy maps well again today but this is another step up and it’s really hard to see the improvement again for a 3rd race. Lucky Lago will be closer to the speed today from barrier 1 and has to be respected on that run. Iggimacool maps horribly today and while there is value in the price, he will need a brilliant ride to win. It all just points to Miss Rose De Lago on the firm track leading it at any pace she wants.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: Back Miss Rose de Lago for 1.5 units to win and 2 units to place.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Italktravel Stakes
1. Moment of Change: We haven’t seen this old bloke since his one run in January. Last win was over 1400m in WFA-G1. First up record is 7 runs for 2 wins and 5 places, so you have to consider him in Listed company first up here today at a track where he has 4 wins 1 place from 6 starts.
2. Dothraki: Will be on speed today. Likes a good track. Never won first up is a massive issue. Last prep did win a Group 3 over this distance. Should measure up.
3. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Been well backed after running 1.8L 7th in Group 1 company last start. Back to the 1200m looks ideal and very strong barrier today makes it hard not to consider him today at the weights. A long time between drinks though.
4. Mr Utopia: Sensational runs last prep in similar company. Won 3 from 5 first up… but first time at this track and best runs have been on larger tracks. 55kg has him well in at the weights compared to a few others.
5. Rock Royalty: Surprise winner at Grafton to finish last prep. First up found nothing at all. Hard to measure him up here today.
6. Mirage: Strong enough first prep back in AUS and found his best over the 1400m+ range. Obviously a key chance on the firm track first up today but have to believe he wants further than 1200m on all the info we have to date.
7. Hosting: Ran well enough at this level last prep but wasn’t good enough to get a win. 1200m a touch too short for him today and i’m happy to take on.
8. The Quarterback: Eye-catching run last start at Caulfield from out the back off the strong tempo. May get a similar tempo setup today if lucky enough especially with Mirage in the race. Has the ability to run them down.
9. Java: Proved last prep to be a top quality horse with a GP3 win and 4th in a WFA-G1 event behind Australian Horse Of The Year Dissident. First up ran well but sat further back than normal and just lacked the dash. Best runs over further… barrier today is poor and he will be doing a load of work in the race with pace out front.
10. Kaepernick: Had the race run to suit last start at Moonee Valley and ran straight the two Hayes runners. 1kg better off today against Galaxy Pegasus is handy from a good barrier.
11. Galaxy Pegasus: Continues to run well but continues to get unlucky or find one too good. Worse off at the weights today and barrier 1, hard to have.
12. Taddei Tondo: A decent horse who doesn’t win often. Last win was in much easier class. Hard to see it here today first up in this class.
13. Sarajevo: Always had ability. 2.8 and 3L off Hallowed Group in Group races as a 3YO, he ran 2nd to Kuro in 3Y-LR class.
14. Villopoto: Struggle to suggest why he is even running here. Poorly in at weights on previous runs.
Comments: Hard way to end the day betting wise. We will have a profile of how the track is playing by now. Knowing there will be a strong tempo, i’m finding it hard to ignore Moment of Change to place at the $4.6+ considering he has never missed a place first up from 7 runs, placed in 15 of 25 runs in this class in the past, 9 of 17 runs at this distance, 17 of 25 runs on a good track and 5 of 6 runs at this track.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 13
Strategy: Moment of Change to place
