Welcome to The Profits form guide for 13 February 2016 at Caulfield. After a strong mid-week performance, we are looking to bounce back from a poor Saturday at this course last week. The rail moves to the True and it’s certainly a nice rail today where horses will have every possible chance from on speed. The Orr looks a ripper on paper while a few other races during the day stand out also. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caufield Race 2 – Risque for 3.5 units @ $3.10 to win
For mine, this is a two horse race on paper. Risque is already a Group 1 winner for a reason. I don’t normally back NZ imports first up, but this horse has been in Australia since late last year and settled into the Hayes yard after a well deserved spell. The 1200m isn’t an issue at all today, in fact, the horse has the turn of foot required here. Most importantly, the tempo will be strong to medium based on speed projections which will suit Risque. Very happy to be on for a significant bet at the odds on offer. She is my horse to follow this Autumn also heading to the Oaks at The Championships.
Next Best Bet
Caufield Race 1 – Tashbeeh for 2.5 units @ $3.50 to win
This is certainly not a one horse race on paper, but the speed maps will decide this one. Tuscan Fire being scratched has a huge impact on this race today with less pressure being put on Tashbeeh on speed. My ratings have Tashbeeh much shorter than the price on offer today based on the ability to have a 2-3 length gap on the main rivals heading into the straight and the sectionals of Tashbeeh’s previous runs.
Other Bet
Caufield Race 8 – Tudor for 1 unit @ $4.00 to place
The price is just wrong in what looks a fairly poor Group 3 race. Tudor will get an on-speed position and run the race to suit. They will be trying to tough it out to get past Tudor and even if they do, Tudor won’t be ‘giving in’ and will be sticking on strongly all the way to the line like happened last start. Rates much shorter to place, but the win price does seem right to me.
Best Value Bet
Caufield Race 7 – Bow Creek for 1 unit @ $10.50/$3.50 Each-Way
A very talented import, Bow Creek is a proven 1400/1600m horse. The most eye-catching run last prep at Moonee Valley, the horses grand final was a 100% forgive, pulling up lame. Not only is the horse very well mapped from the inside barrier, but I expect they will surprise and put Bow Creek back on speed/sit just off them like the horses racing pattern overseas, giving the horse the perfect chance to get past the well fancied leaders.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1800m – TheBigScreenCompany.Com.Au Handicap
1. Ihtsahymn: Three runs this prep and a trial this week to get him in the mood. His three runs have been average at best against similar class of horses. Up to 1800m today, more than a month between runs, the improvement could be there.
2. Like a Carousel: First up over an unsuitable distance. Safe to say he is in need of the run.
3. Tashbeeh: Won two races in a row in harder company. Both runs were very strong wins. 2kg claim and barrier 2, looks ideally positioned here again today and won last run at this track.
4. Bass Strait: Caught the eye three runs back but last start was very disappointing even considering the tempo. Poor barrier means he will be out the back and coming wide.
6. Kareeming: Very one paced first up over 1400m. Almost a month between runs, it’s safe to say he will be much more hardened fit than the first up run heading into this over a more suitable distance. Has to improve to measure up though.
7. Fast and Free: Disappointing run two back at Caulfield after a nice enough run first up. Last start a close 3rd to Tuscan Fire/Radical and 1kg better off today against Tuscan Fire. Barrier will make it really awkward in this race to get a good spot in running.
9. Abbasso: Last start in similar/easier class battled away with a strong tempo that just didn’t suit him. Third up he should be running well from a positive barrier, but this does look another step up.
10. Pin Your Hopes: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley but did finish off nicely enough. Never managed to measure up to this high level of class especially recently though. I’ll take this runner on.
11. Vatuvei: Jumper. Needs a lot further.
12. Falago: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington. Had absolutely nothing to give. Watch for a plunge well back in the weights.
13. Korobiete: Loves a dry track. Two runs this prep not good enough to suggest a strong chance of a win today. Not for mine.
Comments: There is going to be a fight down the long back straight to the first corner for position in this one and by all speed ratings, Tashbeeh will win out and get the run on the very nicely presented rail today. Every one of Tashbeeh’s ‘opposition’ as considered with single figure quotes have drawn barrier 7 or outwards and map to sit midfield at best apart from one who will struggle to get in from out wide. The price being bet for Tashbeeh today is more than appropriate considering the lengths Tashbeeh will have on the ‘key opposition’ heading into the straight. Abbasso the main danger.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tashbeeh for 2.5 units @ $3.50 to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – Kevin Hayes Stakes
1. Calaverite: Ideal race first up this prep when led and all but failed to run it out and pulled up with coughing which from my experience is a very bad sign having had a horse with that type of issue. A few weeks between runs, will need to improve on what we saw first up.
2. Risque: The real deal. Group 1 winner over 1600m in a strong time over in NZ. She is going to win another Group 1 this prep. Clearly her first up run today and the 1200m MAY be a little too short… but she did win on a Heavy 8 over 1200m by 11 lengths over in NZ so the distance wasn’t too much of a query. Ask yourself a question, just how good is the opposition? Maps perfectly.
3. The Big Dance: Every chance first up at FLemington and found a few too good. Second run led and was very very poor. Take on.
4. The Grey Flash: First up since running over 2500m in the Oaks for 6th. Not like this.
5. Mossin’ Around: Looks to be going in the right direction this prep. Five trials before they took her to the track and she won at big odds like a nice type. Ran on very well at Flemington next start for 2nd behind Magna Rossa and then last start stuck on strongly behind Hellbent in the Inglis Dash. To be fair, the stuff behind wasn’t top quality. She is going well enough to win and maps nicely.
6. Cana: Hawkes runner so will always be backed in. Last prep showed enough in easier company to suggest has some ability. First up was poor on a softer track. Back to firmer should run better. Awkward barrier but should be trying to lead.
7. Safariann: Looked a decent type as a 2YO. Two runs back this prep were ‘decent’ but not good enough to my eyes to suggest a clear win here.
8. Make Her Own Whey: Got her maiden first up this prep and ran home nicely for 3rd behind Heatherly last start. Does have to improve but is going the right way.
9. Weather The Storm: Couldn’t win a maiden first up.
Comments: Only two horses I could be on here in Risque and Mossin’ Around. It all comes back to how good Mossin’ Around is and on all the signs i’ve seen, she got the dream run last start, had every chance, but Hellbent went straight past her. I have Risque in a similar league of horse and am very happy from all i’ve heard to be on first up.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Risque for 3.5 units @ $3.10 to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (F)
1. Sword of Light: Tough win last start at Caulfield proving just how good she really is. Very good type and while the barrier is the only thing against her today, she is good enough to overcome it.
2. Concealer: Obviously a nice type on the first win last prep down the Flemington straight. Tough to repeat the effort coming up against this lot today, but she did look good.
3. Calliope: Missed the start first run at Randwick last prep. Speed was on and she sat out the back but that wasn’t an issue as she still smashed the field by almost 2 lengths. Looks an obvious good type if she can jump well today will be very hard to beat from the good barrier.
4. Sweet Sherry: Showed nothing to finish last prep. Good enough straight win at Flemington but others on form preferred.
5. Emphatically: No disgrace last start when ran 2nd to Sword of Light, but she had every possible chance that day. Yet to win a race.
6. Kinetic Design: Two runs and yet to get a win on the board. First up this prep… has to improve. Barrier will help ridden for luck.
7. Samara Dancer: Very easy win only run last prep. Money has come for her before this run today as well and expect her to be going forward.
8. Quick Feet: Strong enough maiden win in decent time. Obviously has to take the next step here up from maiden class.
9. Thyme For Roses: $1.10 favourite in a four horse maiden and won by 0.1L. Waterhouse stable doesn’t have a great record down here recently and this horse certainly has to have improved.
10. Zamzam: Nice enough win last start at the valley. Stable have an opinion of her. Can go well.
11. Dream First: Decent run from the back last start at Caulfield. Barrier 1 today, if jumps better can settle more forward and run well.
12. Selenia: Led and ran a nice 4th first up. Has to improve to win but ridden more quiet could help here.
13. Miss Nymeria: Sectional star from the back first up. Poor barrier again, have to believe they will ride her for aggressively for a position to give her chances.
Comments: Wide open race with MANY winning chances on paper. I would be much more confident on Miss Nymeria today from a better barrier, but just can’t jump into her today from there. Calliope also is one i’d struggle to jump into with the barrier issue her only run to date. I think Sword of Light is the horse to beat here and the price is reasonable.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Sword of Light to win.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G)
1. Power Trip: Strange run last start when pulled up with heat stress. On his first run the previous prep he is good enough to win this.
2. Cohesion: Very good win last start at Caulfield when beating a nice field with relative ease. Times were sound. Need to work hard to get forward from the barrier.
3. Star Turn: Won a strong prize money race to finish last prep in a 5 horse field. Times were sound enough and maps okay from barrier. Money has come.
4. Bullion Wolf: Every chance last start behind Cohesion. Good barrier again today. Can place.
6. Capannello: Griffiths stable has a few good 2YOs and he looked one of those when running 2nd to Cohesion last start. Have to improve to turn the tables though.
7. Flying Artie: Very well fancied and backed today first up. Word is he is the real deal and will be well backed.
8. El Venetian: Ran home well first up and will take improvement out of it. Can improve here and looks a key chance. The barrier is his only issue and exact to be ridden for luck.
9. China Dream: Nice enough run first up at course. Have to improve to win this and barrier doesn’t help chances.
10. Weatherly: Too far off the pace last start but didn’t exactly show the turn of foot that was expected. Too short based on first up run.
11. Los Cabos: Not the worst first run ever last prep but this is a much harder race and will need to have progressed significantly.
12. Ambitious Ex: First run ever. Bossy onboard, if he wins he will say he declared it to everyone, but we haven’t heard a peep! Drifter.
13. Black Energy: Average barrier trial at best. Need the run i’d say and barrier doesn’t help.
14. Lionhearted: Well bred type. Barrier helps. Trial was okay but expect to need the run being a fastnet rock type.
15. Ocean Grove: Another Hayes runner – fastnet rock. Been a bit of backing but expect need the run.
16. Revolving Door: Market only guide. Hasn’t been much for it in early markets.
Comments: Another wide open race as you expected. El Ventian is the horse with the most improvement to come here but even at the price, the barrier is putting me off having any more confidence than suggested. This will give us more info to bet into the Blue Diamond in a few weeks time!
Confidence 50%
Strategy: El Venetian Each-Way
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Schweppes Rubiton Stakes
1. Eclair Choice: Goes okay first up, but last pre did take a few runs to find his very best, finishing with two wins to finish the prep in top class (Group 2 win). Won at track previously and maps nicely from barrier 2.
2. Kuro: Very disappointing last prep showing very little. Best runs have been a long time ago. Freedman stable to find a way to turn them around though.
3. Politeness: 0.2L off Turn Me Loose to finish last prep in a Group 1 at Flemington over 1600m. Won first up last prep over 1200m at course. Will be far back but obviously has the ability. Has been backed.
4. Husson Eagle: Strong tempo last start at the Gold Coast when ran down Wild Rain in a very good run that will measure him up well here today. If the speed is on he will be one of the many coming late. Can position further forward than most speed maps suggest.
5. It Is Written: Always tries. 1 win from 14 starts at course… best saved for Moonee Valley. Last start wasn’t bad at all.
6. Tried and Tired: Four runs this prep and never been far off a win. Last two runs over 1400m both strong and missed by under 0.5L in both runs. Previous run over 1200m 1L 4th in Group 3 company. Awkward barrier the issue.
7. The Monstar: Very unlucky first up at Flemington when should have won for mine blocked in the straight. Very much under the radar here today from an awkward barrier. D Oliver onboard to take care of the barrier issue.
8. Red Corner: Found nothing first up. Way out of class here.
9. Just A Bullet: Nothing first up. Best runs in past were in country grade not city class recently.
10. Lake Geneva: Proved to be a nice type last prep in 3YO grade. Can make more of a reason for other horses to be single figures compared to her first up taking on the older types even at the weights.
11. Heatherly: Will be leading and has the Caulfield Genius in Katie Mallyon onboard. Will be leading, will have 51kg and will be trying to put on a strong tempo to make the best of the weight. Is she this good though even at the weights?
Comments: Wide open race. Two runners at odds stand out if playing here in Husson Eagle and The Monstar. The list of potential winners here is about 8 deep though so i’ll be sitting out.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Back The Monstar and Husson Eagle.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes
1. Mahuta: Went through the grades and hasn’t been given a rest, kept in training having won five runs in a row including a 3Y-GP2 two runs back at Sandown over 1600m. Last start won well over this distance at Gold Coast from start to finish. Will be hard to get past!
3. Tarzino: No issues over these distances in the past, but he clearly showed that his very best is over further winning the Group 1 at Flemington over 2500m. Barrier means he will be out the back.
4. Holler: Done everything right going through the grades recently. Has a 1.8L 3rd to Exosphere on his record over 1200m. Finished off last prep with a 4.3L win in group 3 3YO class. Started this prep with a WFA-G2 win and goes back to 3YO grade today. Very rare you will find the 3YOs measuring up to WFA. Nice type and rates well. Last time he met Mahuta he gave him 1kg and lost by 0.3l. Today he is 2kg better off.
5. Devil Hawk: Very best runs haven’t been seen in the city. First up today from a strong stable. His best has been over slightly further.
6. Extra Choice: Certainly a nice type. Has won in past BM-64 grade over 1400m and went on to win a 3YO-LR over 2200m. On best form i’d suggest needs further.
7. Celtic Tiger: One solid win last prep in Adelaide. Certainly need to find his very best to be measuring up to this grade.
8. Rageese: Very poor first up and no excuses. Last prep was a decent type but couldn’t get closer than 2.5L off the very best types. This is his distance but he has to have found another length at very least.
9. Snoopy: I thought his run last start was quite strong when winning with relative ease in 3YO grade returning to the track. Up to 1400m should suit him a bit better as well. Is he one of the very best? I think he has the ability.. but barrier 12 does make it tough to get the right position.
10. Hardern: Nice enough win last start but back in distance today. Well up in class, has a lot to prove.
11. Solar Impulse: Maiden winner, big step up here. Hard to see covering the class gap.
12. Sailing By: Ran a close 2nd to Tarzino at Caulfield last prep but then failed to run out the next run. Very best runs were around this distance, but she does look a length or two off the very best here.
Comments: Mahuta and Holler will be eyeing each other out the front today. Holler is better weighted and arguably going better than when they last bet while Mahuta has been up forever without a spell and has racked up some frequent flyer points. I’ll be siding with Holler in this Head-to-Head battle.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 9
Strategy: Holler to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes
1. Fawkner: Has won in past around these distances. First up record is solid and he loves this race track. Will sit midfield at best from the barrier and will enjoy the tempo. Imagine he is rock hard fit for this.
2. Happy Trails: Always needs a run first up this bloke and clearly his best is over further proved by last few preps. Will be out the back.
3. Boban: Very best runs have always been on Good tracks and he gets it today. Has won his last two runs first up over 1350m and 1400m so 1400m today is no issues at all. Barrier is certainly awkward so he will get a LONG way back off a hot tempo. Will need a lot of luck to get through the field.. ride for luck?
4. Lucky Hussler: Obviously a good win first up over at the Gold Coast, but the horse that ran 2nd was Strawberry Boy.. hardly a Group 1 winner. Almost a month between runs, you have to believe last start was a grand final run considering the prize money on offer so he would have been rock hard fit. It will be interesting if he has stayed at that form coming into this. Hardest test of his career.
5. Rebel Dane: Fairly beaten last start at Moonee Valley in WFA-G2 grade over 1200m by Holler. Good barrier today but this is a HUGE test for a horse that has had his best runs over 1200m.
6. Mourinho: Just continues to put in solid performances each prep. Has 1400m form including a win here last year beating The Cleaner. Loves speed on and will get it. Barrier means he will map very well.
7. Turn Me Loose: First two runs last prep were certainly WELL below his final three runs where he went on to claim a WFA-G2 race and then Group 1. 1400m is certainly fine, but his three best runs on record are all over 1600m. No disadvantage by the barrier and will be on speed with Entirely Platnium.
8. Hucklebuck: Every chance ofr mine first up behind Holler but he did need the run. Up to 1400m ideal and needs further to find his very best. Barrier is a massive negative.
9. Trust in a Gust: Horror barrier today and will need a very handy forward ride to pull it off. Best runs in the past have been around this distance and for mine his first up run was very good against the pattern of the day. Can win.
10. Stratum Star: Disappointing run to finish the prep over 2000m… just got the win the previous start at Caulfield and wasn’t convincing over the 2000m. Back to 1400m where he has a Group 1 win on record but that was certainly not the hardest Group 1 you will ever see. Has to improve here at WFA from barrier.
11. Messene: Simply put, his very best isn’t good enough to measure up to this level of a Group 1. If he is rock hard fit unlike a lot of runners, he can position midfield and run a place.
12. Entirely Platnium: Going forward. Never won in this grade and this looks probably the hardest G1 race he has contested. Went close over this distance last prep.
13. Bow Creek: Huge run firs tup last prep against the pattern at Moonee Valley over 1600m then pulled up lame as favourite at Flemington. Barrier 2, expect a more aggressive ride to be closer to the speed today and for him to be ready to win. Will be suited by tempo on. Massive price.
14. Red Bomber: You know i like this guy, he won a lot of money for us, but this is a huge throw at the stumps… he isn’t this good.
15. Awesome Rock: Got a well deserved win to finish last prep after running some nice races. Outclassed here.
16. Rising Romance: Love this girl but she certainly didn’t break through last prep… did go painfully close though in two WFA-G1 seconds. Tough gate and even tougher field. Struggle to suggest here first up in this field from this barrier.
17. Suavito: Group 2 winner last prep, she missed the Spring. Did get a WFA-G1 of course at Caulfield but Dissident didn’t turn up that day. barrier 1… D Oliver jumps off.
18: Fenway: Obviously a nice type… Group 1 winner as a 3YO and ran a nice 2nd in FM-Gp1 to Politeness last prep. Barrier helps but surely not in this?
Comments: Several chances in this race and about 8 runners from barriers that won’t get runs that allow them any chance to win. The money has already come for this runner, but I think Bow Creek is still a massive price at $10.50/$3.50. Will position on speed and be ready to pounce around the turn from a very positive barrier.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Bow Creek for 1 unit @ $10.50/$3.50 Each-Way
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – The Cup Club T.S. Carlyon Cup
1. Amorino: Ran only fairly first up over 1400m with top weight. Up to 1600m not exactly ideal on previous preps which suggests he clearly isn’t at his best for mine targeting this. 7 runs 0 places second up in the past says they aim too high with him as well. Top weight.. has to run well to get in this finish… has the ability but has to prove it.
2. Extra Zero: Old mate has had a freshen up since pulling up lame over at Ascot after finding heavy tracks coming off a huge Group 1 5th at Flemington behind Preferment. Goes well enough over this distance but he does shine over 2000m.
3. Gallante: Shown very little since coming out here. Best run was on a wetter track. Never won on Good.
4. Dances on Stars: Listed runner on his very best days.. did run a nice 3rd previous prep to Srikandi in WFA-G2. Have to improve on last few runs.
5. Red Excitement: Looked a very good type two preps back going through the grades but failed to fire this prep. Others preferred.
6. Burning Front: Just keeps going on with it this prep. Can he really produce another win here over 1600m? The feeling is 1400m is his best distance but he does get 1600m with little issues. First run at track and wide barrier, but expect him to get in with speed runners in the race both out wide also.
7. Good Value: Can’t win this if he runs up to previous three runs. Four back run even that wasn’t good enough to win this.
8. Tudor: Good the tempo right on a day suiting front runners two back… then over did it last start at course and 1400m… with a swooper winning… still stuck on well for 4th. Has ability but will certainly be pushing them along.. 1600m a stretch and 7 runs 0 places at this track.
9. Sadaqa: Got away with easy sectionals at nice weights the last two runs. Not going to happen again here. One of his hardest runs this prep. Has to improve.
10. Manndawi: Thought he ran home very well only run in Australia last prep at Geelong over 2400m. Never run over 1600m an issue.. probably needs the run but is certainly weighted nicely.
11. Pure Karma: Out the back last start at course and distance in BM-78 grade and found one way too good. Struggle to see the jump up to a Group 3 race today.
12. No Tricks: Didn’t have any tricks first up. Best runs over similar distances but even then she hasn’t shown us the ability required.
Comments: A little shocked if i’m honest that Burning Front is the favourite in a Group 3 race for his first ever run at Caulfield 20 runs deep into this prep. Yes, he is just running so well… but the speed will certainly be on, he won’t get the lead and will need a little luck to get in from that barrier. His very best runs have all been when leading, especially leading with his own tempo… I love the horse, you know that, but i can’t have him at the price! I think Tudor is racing in career best form and the $4 to place on offer looks the play here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Tudor to for 1 unit @ $4.00 to place.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1200m – MyPunter.Com Bellmaine Stakes
1. Wawail: First up today, she loves this track on previous runs and has won 3 of 4 runs first up in the past. Goes well at this distance also and has won 4 from 10 in similar grade. Well enough weighted.
2. Jessy Belle: Always looked a nice type and proved it last prep with some good runs in mares Group grade. Still yet to get a group win in this similar grade though and never won first up… 1 win from 9 at track.
3. Nadeem Lass: Decent enough run first up at Flemington down the straight. Never won from 9 runs at track an issue up into this grade.
4. Shakespearean Lass: Broke through last start at Caulfield to make it 3 wins from 4 starts this prep going through the grades. Has to improve again up to 1200m. Goes well here.
5. Tuscan Sling: Looked the real deal last prep and went on with it this prep proving those form lines are strong. Up to 1200m again today and stays at Caulfield where she ran well and won last start. Been a while between runs but Rawiller takes the ride today and most importantly the barrier means she will position 1 off the rails most likely 3 pairs back, within striking distance. Big chance.
6. Miss Steele: Very disappointing run first up at Moonee Valley. Has to improve significantly. Has the ability on last prep, but I couldn’t jump into her here after the first up run.
7. Choose: Went through the grades last prep but just missed in Mares Group 3 grade. First up this prep a very nice win at the valley over some decent types. Goes okay enough here at Caulfield and maps to lead. Will be hard to get past if she has improved.
8. My Sister Lil: Ran over in the West last prep with a Group 3 5th to Black Heart Bart over 1420m and then a close 2nd to Real Love over 1400m when covering extra ground before coming to the end of her prep and failing to run out the final two runs. Clearly a 1200-1400m horse on previous prep information and has a nice first up record. Real Love went on with it to run 3rd in the Perth Cup and then 3rd to Tashbeeh/Second Bullet at Flemington.
9. Azkadellia: Looked the real deal last prep when winning two and going painfully close in three other races. Best runs were clearly over further but she has the ability to win over this distance. Maps awkwardly from the barrier and speed won’t be on.
10. Felicienne: Had her chances last start at Flemington and was beaten by a very average type when carrying just 53kg. Not for mine in this grade.
11. Amarela: Looked a nice type going through the grades last prep but couldn’t measure up to the top level. Has to have improved 3 lengths.
12. Chiavari: Nice horse, not in this. No.
Comments: This race is wider open than what is shown on paper. A few blowout chances while the favourite maps horribly and i’m not convinced the speed in the race will give her the best run. I’d rather back Wawail and Tuscan Sling than be on Azkadellia at the prices.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Back Tuscan Sling and Wawail to win for equal stakes. Small bet also on My Sister Lil at $51s.
