Welcome to The Profits form guide for 13 August 2016 from Caulfield. We return to Caulfield on a Good surface today which is expected to continue firming throughout the day. Having walked the track, I’m expecting the rail to hold up fine early, but I do have my concerns over the 1-2 off line and certainly saw a lane 3-5 off that is favourable… anything outside of that was a graveyard though so you don’t want to be too wide. One clear standout on the form today while there are a few E/W bests that also standout. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – O’Lonera for 4 units @ $3.00 to win
Next Best Bets
Caulfield Race 8 – Fast ‘n’ Rocking for 2 units @ $3.40 to win
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 3 – Volcanic Ash for 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 7 – Miss Rose de Lago for 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 13, 14
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – ANZAC Commemoration Handicap
1. Electric Fusion: Five runs in this prep and first time up to 2000m this prep. Has gone well at distance in the past, but last two starts in harder company have been well off a win. Lowest grade since 2.4L 4th four runs back.
2. Bondeiger: Forgive run last start? Not suited 2400m? Back to 2000m and at Caulfield once again. Barrier 1 certainly not ‘ideal’ but you know Oliver will get him off the rail ASAP. This is grand final day for old mate today and there are a few tough competitors to beat.
4. Hursley: Super impressive this campaign competing in 3YO grade getting two wins on the board over the 2000m at this track. Last start it was really the ride that got him home saving a load of ground on the day. Not exactly super well weighted here against another step up in class. Has the ability to run well.
5. Name the Day: Finally struck through for a win last start in easier grade at Flemington on a soft surface. 6 runs on good surfaces for 0 wins to date has to be a big of of a concern up in grade here, but he does look well suited by the grade of race.
6. O’lonera: Change of tactics last start at course and distance in harder grade winning by 3 lengths. Equal weight today with Hall taking the ride again today. I don’t see why he doesn’t get the race to suit out front again today and can’t see why he would be getting beat. Only query is step back in distance but as I said, I don’t think this is an issue at all.
9. Four by Four: Two runs and wins to start the prep in maiden and BM-64 grade. Failed to place the last two starts in 3Y-78/70 races. Back to dryer has to suit but even so he has to find a length or two on his best to date to be competitive here.
Comments: The clear standout on form and ratings is O’Lonera. The only potential pest for him out the front today will come in the form of Electric Fusion, but based on previous runs, I can’t see Baster wanting to push him out to get infront today, instead I would expect him to be happy to sit outside O’Lonera.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: O’Lonera for 4 units @ $3.00 to win
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – Legacy 2016 Badge Appeal Handicap
1. Rustic Melody: Sydney horse that has been competing on wet tracks the majority of the prep. Won on Heavy three back but also won first up on a Good track in fast time. Will get a sit on the rail 1-2 back.
2. Niminypiminy: Missed the start the last two runs which cost her pretty much any chance both days. Up to 1600m is a positive and has been running well in harder grades of races… 10 runs for 0 wins on good tracks a big concern.
3. Choice: Consistent type. Went over to NZ and got a win or two. Came back and first up run over the unsuitable 1200m ran a very good 1.1L 5th in harder grade. A few weeks between runs and up to 1600m looks very well suited. Never won on a Good track but last start on a Good track was respectable.
4. Lilly Dazzler: Showed nothing first up when 4L 9th over 1400m. Previous prep found nothing also. Not sure if she is wanting to race.
5. Savannah Moon: Continues to run well. Last start up to 2000m 4th behind Yulong Baby. Back to 1600m today but a similar weight in this class. Better runs in the past have been over further and I feel this may just be slightly short of her best distance. Clearly have to respect. Won’t find it easy getting a spot from that barrier.
6. Arianne: Always had a load of ability and improves significantly second up always. Has won at distance in the past but best runs have been reserved for longer straights. Best run last prep was 2400m Group 3. Wanting further but can run well.
7. Kaniana: Weir runner that was well backed last start into favourite at Flemington over the 1400m. Blocked for runs when it mattered and should have won last start. As long as she begins well today expect her to be on the speed and a much better chance.
8. Gigi Girl: Step up in class here out of her comfort zone. Was running in R-58 grade last prep and has slowly made her way through the grades. Been running on wetter tracks all this prep but goes well on good tracks. Hard to judge in this grade. Can run okay.. barrier hurts for getting in though.
9. Winta Chiller: Nice midweek run 2nd to Show Us Your Tatts in much easier grade. Going well but this is much harder.
10. Takeover: Will be on speed again today. Good run 4th to Nadeem Lass last start at Flemington.
Comments: Kaniana is the horse to beat but she has to jump better today. Gigi Girl with 52kg looks to be the horse at odds with a big chance today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Kaniana to win. Smaller bet on Gigi Girl.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Beveridge Williams Handicap
1. By The Grace: Failed to fire first up but the next two starts on softer tracks over 1400m in Open grade saw some very solid runs. Last start failed to fire and was a forgive run at Flemington. Never won here but looks well in after claims. Will need a gem of a ride though from position in running.
2. Dandy Gent: Never won first up or even gone close. Best runs in the past over much further than this. Just watch him.
3. Sadaqa: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on all three occasions.. Step up to 1600m shouldn’t improve him enough.
4. Leica Day: Weir runner. First up ran a blinder blocked for runs 2.6L 3rd behind Ulmann who has won since Up to 1600m. Very well suited back down in class at the weights.
5. Great Esteem: Hasn’t gone close in the last 6 runs. Back in class again but struggle to suggest he can go close on current form and has run at Caulfield 4 times for 0 places.
6. Chivalry: Loves to not win races! Back to dryer track today which should better suit him, but the two back run really isn’t form enough to measure up here. I have to take him on again.
7. Magic Consol: Ran very well last start 3rd to Khutulun when wife throughout. Previous run 2nd to Killarney Kid form has been franked since and goes well over 1600m. Good barrier.
8. Volcanic Ash: Frustrating horse to follow at the best of times. I think we have been waiting for him to find another Good track which is what he gets here today. His best is more than good enough to measure up and win here.
10. Aurum Spirit: Fairly beaten the past five runs. Up in class again today back to the grass. Maps okay from barrier but clearly needs to find lengths again.
11. Got Your Double: Three runs this prep and shown nothing. Take on.
Comments: Leica Day, Volcanic Ash and Magic Consol are the three horses that stick out to me today on form. Leica Day isn’t any value at the price on offer with a rating of $3.20 on my information. Magic Consol is slight value with a nice run expected, but Volcanic Ash back to the firmer track today from barrier 6 with D Oliver onboard should get the perfect ride finding the right ground in the straight and looks a very nice Each-Way bet.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Volcanic Ash for 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – MRC Foundation Handicap
2. Shakespearean Lass: Doesn’t normally win out of turn but she was quite good last prep. Never won first or second up is a big concern though… goes okay here and over these distances on good tracks. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
3. Glenbawn Dame: QLD runner down in Melbourne via Sydney most likely looking for dryer tracks. Has certainly been running well all runs this prep and finally hits another Good surface. Williams onboard and hard to ignore her form.
4. Awasita: Snuck a win a few weeks back at Canterbury on heavy holding out Glenbawn Dame. Obviously improved onwards form wise and has to continue that improvement.
5. Chiavari: Beaten no more than 1L all 4 runs this prep with a win in between. Never won in this class but always runs well. Finally hits a Good surface for the first time this prep and from barrier 4 looks very well weighted mapping a dream.
6. Mossin’ Around: 51kg inside barrier for this girl who proved to be very talented as a 3YO. First run of her second prep today up into open Mares grade is certainly a hard feat to pull off, but she did look a very good type. Will need luck from position in running i’d imagine.
7. Miss Gidget: Obviously she is a nice type of horse, but had only won a maiden until the last start win at Geelong in fairly easy company. Much harder here today at the weights and poor barrier.
8. Ocean Embers: Another horse progressing from 3YO grade up to open class for the first time. She won very well first up at Caulfield and was only just beaten last start at Morphetville coming home hard from the back. Questionable on past form on Good tracks is the issue today and will be a long way back coming home wide and late.
9. Cana: Hawkes runner that showed huge amounts of ability the first prep but failed to get a win last prep. Will have matured between preps and rates well here.
10. Dream Food: Nice enough run 3rd at course over 1200m last start behind Blithe Belle. No excuses though fairly beaten that day and has to improve onwards up in class.
11. Sagabella: Three runs this prep and fairly beaten all runs. One to take on based on form.
Comments: Wide open race with several chances. Chiavari with 52kg from the good barrier maps well and looks like the type to come over the top late while Glenbawn Dame also looks well in finally back to a dryer track and will be pushing on with it early.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Chiavari and Glenbawn Dame
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – KS Environmental Vain Stakes
1. Valliano: Awkward enough barrier, but he should find his way across for a 1/1 slot and even if he doesn’t, it won’t be a big negative being on the 3-wide line today for mine. 2YO-SWP winner at course over 1200m last prep. First up run was very good that prep also. Should measure up here today and is certainly a quality type.
3. Cohesion: Godolphin runner who won at course and distance from on speed in a very swift time last prep. First up run though on a heavy track was horrid. Has to improve.
4. Highland Beat: Always showed a lot of class with 9 runs last prep for 2 wins and places. G3 2nd behind Extreme Choice on record and 2YO winner over 1200m at Sandown. Respect his ability – will be just off the speed.
5. Russian Revolution: Very well backed colt for the Snowden stable. Two runs for two wins this prep including a 2L win at Randwick on softer track last start. Snitzel bred and has a lot of speed in his legs.
6. Artie Dee Two: Wide but still won very well last start in 2YO grade at Moonee Valley. A step up again today.. respect Weir runner.
7. Revolving Door: Stable have a big opinion of him, but his very best has been over further. Nice enough barrier to get a solid run today.
8. Wazzenme: Three starts this prep and has been there or there abouts at all three runs. Another step up in class for mine here.. not convinced he is good enough to beat all these home.
9. Hardham: Fair enough maiden win at Pakenham over a decent field. Big step up.
10. Zanahary: First up runner here and trialled quite well heading in. Big test today one would think but has ability.
Comments: I could suggest every single runner here has some claim to win which doesn’t ever happen. This is a classy field and it shouldn’t have a $2.10 favourite. The same can also be said for the price on the Godolphin runner Cohesion.. it shouldn’t be $51 either. Highland Beat gets the slight nod of the runners here for mine.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Highland Beat E/W. Very small bet on Cohesion to win also.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – Winslow Group Stakes
1. Concealer: Will be getting back in the run as is her nature. Clearly on last prep runs has a load of ability, but end of last prep had lameness issues which is always a concern when returning in this grade. Barrier hurts.
2. Sword of Light: Massive run first up when a close 2nd to a very good type in Derryn. Up to 1100m no negative today and barrier 1 will give her every possible chance. Respect.
3. She’s Positive: Won a high priced race at Morphetville last prep beating some good types. Looks a nice type going forward and has to be respected.
4. I Am a Star: 3L win to finish last prep in Group 3 grade at Morphetville. Won previous run at Flemington by 1.5L down the straight. Barrier 16 the only main negative today.
5. Hot Dipped: Three wins in a row coming over from Tasnmania and was a poor run only run at Flemington when over raced. Better than that, but this is a step up again even though back to more suitable 1100m.
6. Selenia: Handy type from the Griffiths yard, won a 2YO-LR back in easier grade after competing against some good types including Samara Dancer. Has to have found a length or two.
7. Modern Wonder: Hard to ignore this classy filly, she put in a very big win her only run at Morphetville last prep and maps well from barrier 5. A clear chance.
9. Najmaat: Hayes runner that is first up today and working well at home. 2YO winner course and distance beating a nice type in Highland Beat.
11. Merriest: Went around a shot priced favourite last start of last prep when beaten 6.2L by I Am A Star who then proved to be a good type going forward. Has to improve.
13. Conscious: 1.5L off Weatherly is nothing to sneeze at as form. Should be suited by the track and distance.
14. Athena Lass: Looks the better of the two Hayes runners and more suited here. Gets a dry track which will suit even more.
15. Leotie: Maiden winner first up this prep. Obviously a nice win but really has to improve forwards.
16. Miss Salinger: Well backed filly first up and won with ease. Significantly harder race. Has some ability though!
Comments: This is the ugliest betting race of the day by a country mile. So many first up runners and unknown information, there is no way you could ever have huge confidence betting into this.
Confidence 20%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 13, 14
Strategy: I Am A Star E/W
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – P.B. Lawrence Stakes
1. Smokin’ Joey: Wasn’t a bad run last start from out the back behind Lord of the Sky when 4.5L 5th. Race wasn’t really run to suit. Will be out the back running on as per normal. Last win was more than a year ago (also was his last good run) and was 1200m not 1400m. Struggle to suggest him.
2. The Cleaner: Old mate returns to the track today under new management with Gelagotis taking over The Cleaner. Finished off last prep with a disappointing $1.60 defeat over 1400m in WFA class in Tasmania. Previous runs that prep were 1400m 2nd at course and distance, 1600m win and 0.2L 3rd over 1800m before a respectable 7th in the Cox Plate. He is truly a top class horse, but there has to be questions over his peak fitness levels first up especially with his old trainer not being involved in passing on info. Will be leading.
3. Lord of the Sky: Wide barrier today doesn’t help our good friend Lord of the Sky today and neither does a drying track surface. He was a great win last start with us on as a best bet at crazy odds, but i’m not convinced he is actually better suited up to 1400m today and more importantly, he will get no favours out the front unlike last start. He would need The Cleaner to miss the start badly to get the tempo he needs to finish off and beat this lot i’d imagine. Price looks unders.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Loves a tough battle and that’s what he will get today. Barrier 3, he will sit off the hot speed and try and out tough them late. Don’t be surprised to see him there fighting it out, he is a bloody tough bloke and has the ability.
5. Entirely Platinum: First up today after a disappointing last prep. Previous prep went close in WFA-G1 grade with 0.1L and 0.4L defeats. Has to be at his best and can’t see him getting a good position from the barrier at this track over 1400m.
6. Awesome Rock: Found his best last prep when up over the 2000m. Needs the run today and will be running on well late from a good barrier.
7. Tall Ship: One run in the Autumn and then sent back out for a spell…. Weir is setting this bloke for another run at the cups and he certainly has the ability to measure up. Not here.
8. Magnapal: Showed nothing first up. Last prep won over 1400m first up in much easier class. His best is 2000m+.
9. Berisha: Another decent type looking for an okay run here today needing further to find his very best.
11. Mahuta: Drawn the plum gate today. I thought he was fairly disappointing last start when given a nice time with it and couldn’t finish off. Is he really looking for the grinding nature that will be delivered today? Will he take them on? Will he sit just off them? Will need a gem of a ride and he isn’t proven at the top level just yet.
12. Suavito: Average at best trials but not a surprise for this horse. Will gain fitness from this run. From the barrier expect no worse than midfield ready to take them late if she gets the right run. WFA-G1 winner last prep first up getting the run of the race. Hard to ignore.
13. Set Square: Went through the motions last Spring prep when running well at the top level with a Group 1 placing and WFA-G1 5th, but failed to get any win even in mares grade first up over this distance. Struggle to suggest.
14. Miss Rose de Lago: Went to a new level last prep ratings wise and looks to my eyes to have gone on with it once again this prep from trials and information i’ve received. D Oliver jumps on her today after trials instead of taking WFA-G1 winner Suavito. Won 3 from 4 at this track in the past. Will LOVE the speed on out infront and will be happy to sit behind The Cleaner to peal out in the straight for the win.
15. Jameka: Runs well over all distances according to previous preps.. but this isn’t 3YO grade anymore and it’s The Cleaner pace out the front. Struggle to suggest her on everything we know and main targets over further.
Comments: When you finish going through the race on paper, this is actually a fairly weak WFA-G1 race with only six main winning chances on my ratings. From that, there are two to three that we really want to take on in the conditions or at the prices leaving us with a few to choose from. When all is said and done, i think the horse most suited here today is Miss Rose de Lago and the price on offer is extra juicy.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 14
Strategy: Miss Rose de Lago for 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Lister Regal Roller Stakes
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Brave run 2nd last start at course and distance when too far back on the day when you consider the run the winner had. Well back in class and well enough weighted for the field here. Barrier 5 should see him get a nice enough spot in running and he will get a much better run today.
2. Palentino: Proved to be a top class 3YO last prep over 1400m and beyond. 1200m looks just short of his very best and first time in open grade has to fight some very nice types including Fast n Rocking.
3. Girl Guide: Hasn’t won since 2014. Certainly goes well a tthe top level without winning. Last prep 0.1L 2nd at course over similar distance behind Sheidel. First up run very far back and finished off nicely. Expect a good run. Has been backed.
5. Voodoo Lad: Overrace last start at Flemington and I can only assume they won’t fight the horse today and will let him roll. This is far beyond anything he has faced class wise in the past and returns to a dryer track today which shouldn’t be a disadvantage. Weighted okay.
6. Taddei Tondo: On speed he ran a gallant race for 4th in WFA-G3 grade. 2nd out of that race didn’t do much last start though when back in class. He hasn’t won for nearly a year and that was a BM-78. He has to improve onwards and is 10 runs for 0 wins at track.
7. Gold Symphony: First prep as a 3YO he looked a top class 3YO beating Ready for Victory over the 1200m. The next prep he found nothing and produced some very poor runs. First up this prep up in Sydney on a Heavy track saw him run 4th well beaten. A win would be a bit of a shock today but we know he has the ability in the form lines as a 2/3YO.
8. Jungle Edge: I can’t really understand the nomination for this today. His very best runs have been on soft or heavy tracks and the wetter the better. 7 runs 1 place on Good and gets that track today. No.
10. Gold Heist: BM-70 grade runes the past two starts down from mares grade. Hasn’t won a race since 2013 and up to this grade doesn’t inspire confidence in a win.
11. Truculent: Well beaten last start in a 3YO race. This is a throw at the stumps that I can’t justify.
Comments: Six key chances in this race as Quaddie numbers suggest. I’m happy to take on Palentino and Girl Guide at the odds. Taddei Tondo is very slight value and the same with Gold Symphony but I can’t take them against this lot. It leaves me with Voodoo Lad and Fast ‘n’ Rocking. Voodoo Lad should get a nice time of it out the front today, but just what will Jungle Edge do? The pest could very much ruin Voodoo Lad’s race. On my mapping, Fast’n’ Rocking will get a magnificant spot in running compared to previous starts and you know Dunn will be going early (which will be suited by the track at this stage of the day) to make sure he has the horse in the race at the top of the straight.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Fast ‘n’ Rocking for 2 units @ $3.40 to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Ramlegh Springs The Place to Be Plate
1. Freshwater Storm: Old mate loves the Good tracks and finally finds himself back on one today. Very well in at the weights well back in grade here today with Dunn onboard with a claim. Lowest grade he has seen in a while and he won in Open grade last prep. Good run three back at course over 1600m.. back to 1400m more ideal for mine also. Suited. Looks overs.
2. So Does He: Been running well recently heading into this. Won three back in equal class and distance on a softer track. No disgrace the last two runs either. Has to improve only slightly to win here.
3. Bon Rocket: Last win was in this grade back in 2015. Four runs this prep in similar grade and has placed twice. Goes well on good tracks and last run here was solid. Disappointing last start a big issue.
4. Hokkaido: Simply poor first up with no real excuse. Will improve for the run, but based on what I saw there, I can’t have him.
6. Mr Individual: 3YO grade up to BM-78 here today. Good enough win at course and distance last start, but does find himself up in grade and up in weight. Respect his ability and will get a nice spot in run from barrier.
7. Ilgattino: Previous prep couldn’t get a win but two wins this prep on wetter tracks showed he still has the ability. Disappointing run last start and stays at 1400m which isn’t his best for mine.
8. Prince of Brooklyn: Three runs this prep for 2nd, 2nd and 2nd. 3YO grade up into BM-78 grade here and stays at Caulfield and 1400m. Barrier today a big negative.
9. Harveys True Heart: First up today at an unsuitable distance. Needs the run.
10. Steggler: GB import now with DK. 3YO-90 winner over in the UK and R-95 placed behind Secret Art. Market your only guide.. horror barrier from this start.
11. Tiny’s Legacy: Hasn’t won since mid 2015 and that was in much harder class. Two runs for 0 places at this track in the past. Five runs this prep for 1 place in similar grade. Best runs on wetter.
12. Curragh King: 7th run of prep and hasn’t gone better than 3rd. It was a decent 3rd but the two runs since have been disappointing. Take on.
13. Wheatsheaf Flyer: 2nd up today after an okay run for 4th on heavy over 1200m. Up to 1400m but on previous best runs his best is really the 1600m. Better seen on wetter.
14. Monkstone: Put in two very solid runs at Pakenham heading into this. Much harder test again and back to turf today.
15. Vostok: Disappointing 5th first up but was always going to be a question on heavy. First prep was very good measuring up to Group class. Best win over 1400 is good enough to run well here.
17. Scapa Cove: BM-70 heavy winner two back. Last run on good was a win in BM-64 grade. Has some ability.
19. Downhearted: Went around two back in 3YO fairly beaten and then last start at Pakenham couldn’t get the job done. Awkward barrier.
Comments: Mr Individual and Price of Brooklyn coming out of 3YO grade are both under the correct odds while Stegler also looks under the odds with too many unknowns from a horrible barrier. A bit of value in So Does He and Freshwater Storm here.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 15
Strategy: So Does He to win. Smaller bet Freshwater Storm
