Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield Blue Sapphire Day on 12 October 2016. This looks an interesting card overall with a lot of depth. Due to a midweek illness, i’ve been forced to only cover the races that stand out the most based on how I believe the track is going to play. For your interest, the wear and tear is very thick rail to 6m out all the way until about the 400m mark where the inside 3m is clearly better than the 4-6m ground and about as even as outside of that due to the horses not taking rails runs last Saturday… this provides leaders with a key advantage especially in sprint races. It was great to land a few good bets on Guineas day including the main event winner Divine Prophet. Hopefully we can come out ahead today storming towards Caulfield Cup day. As always and I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Keen Array 2 units @ $4.00. Admiral 1.5 units @ $6.50
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Derryn – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.15
Value Bets
Caulfield Race 2 – Ribbon of Choice – 1 unit Each-Way @ $18/$4
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – thebigscreencompany Handicap
I’m expecting there to be an average tempo on in this race today. On my ratings, there are three clear chances in Cellarman, Ribbon of Choice and Smart As You Think.
Ribbon of Choice is the horse that has got my attention here today coming off a very solid run at Flemington last start. He was caught in a pocket at a critical stage of the race and forced to wait for two horses including Inside Agent to go past before Yendall could pull the whip and ask him for the ultimate effort which saw him find the third fastest final 200m. Looks well suited going through the line up in distance and also looks well suited to a 400m sprint from a very good barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Ribbon of Choice – 1 unit Each-Way @ $18/$4
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Blue Sapphire Stakes
1. Flying Artie: Hard to contest this colts form as a 2YO. Hasn’t been seen in several months first up here today. 1200m is his distance and this very much as been the goal all along. Extreme Choice and Star Turn have certainly backed up the form lines. If he has gone on with it as a 3YO then it’s hard to see them beating him with the right run today.
2. Highland Beat: Very good run first up when just beaten at course over 1100m. 2nd up fairly beaten and last start on a soft track was poor from out the back at Flemington. Poor barrier today.
3. Dalradian: Push forward from wide barrier today. Three runs this prep and hasn’t been close to a win. Hard to suggest the required improvement again today.
4. Ken’s Dream: Keeps the ride on Ken’s Dream after a long run last start at Moonee Valley. Looks the type of horse to be much better suited to the Caulfield track on the hanging issues last start and will be much better allowed to lead today. Will be hard to get past.
5. Barthelona: Strong win last start over the 1100m from out the back. Clearly has star turn of foot and Inside Agent backed up the form two weeks back. Maps a long way back today and will need a very good run and improvement to go past them all today.
6. Derryn: Stable have a big opinion of him. Ran poorly over 1400m last start behind Astern. Previous start just beaten 0.2L 2nd to Guineas winner Divine Prophet. Back to 1200m looks ideal today at a track where he recorded his peak run. Expect him to sit handy today from the barrier.
7. Manolo Blahniq: Two runs this prep and well beaten on both occasions up in Sydney in Group company. Group 3 winner from back home in NZ. Can’t suggest on two runs so far.
8. Radcliffe: Every chance the last two starts at course over similar distances. One i’m happy to take on at the odds.
10. Heptagon: Won well as a 2YO at Ballarat in maiden company. Will get a sneak run on the rails from the inside rail… gutsy placement from the trainer but have to believe he thinks this horse is up to it having Flying Artie in it also?
11. Mr Tickler: Well beaten on only run to date. Hard to suggest.
12. Merriest: Disappointing last start at MV over the 1200m when every chance and couldn’t close down on Selenia. Probably wants a much faster tempo as proven by the previous run beating Whispering Brook who ran top 3 in the Guineas. Will be going forward.
13. Call Me Tess: Looked a nice type as a 2YO. Can find improvement first up here from a good barrier but struggle to suggest her beating the lot here.
Comments: Flying Artie, Ken’s Dream an Derryn all deserve to be single figures today and that’s what they are. At the odds, i like the look of Derryn from the barrier. I think the horse maps better than Flying Artie today and will be further forward. He is very much the sit and sprint type with an explosive turn of foot and that’s what is needed to win here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Derryn – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.15
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Italktravel Caulfield Village Stakes
1. Admiral: 0.4L 2nd behind Supido over 1000m first up last prep before failing in Group 1 class behind Black Heart Bart. previous preps saw huge runs from him over this distance from on speed positions. Maps forward and very well from the barrier and will be hard to beat.
2. Keen Array: barrier 1 and will be pushing forward to be just behind the leaders if not leading himself today. Winner last start at course and distance.. up in weights but very well in here. Back onto a dryer track will suit. Group 1 placed in the past.
3. Illustrious Lad: Horrible barrier today and will be going back. Very game type of horse that always runs very well going through the grades. Last start won over in Adelaide in this grade being a nice one in Shaf. Step up again and has to improve again.
4. Clearly Innocent: Fairly beaten first up behind Takedown at Randwick. Best runs last prep were over further distances which is a concern. Can run well but clearly others preferred.
5. Mighty Like: Won well first up on a softer track in easier grade before failing to fire the past three runs. Very hard horse to catch and D Oliver keeps the ride. Good barrier.
6. Play Master: Showed nothing first up at course and similar distance after more than a year off. Group 3 placed last prep… but clearly needs to find his form again and I can’t see it on that first up run.
7. Taddei Tondo: Ran very well in easier grade last start at The Valley from out the back. Found one too good that day and based on his history, there is every chance that will occur again today. Only positive is the barrier. 12 runs for 0 wins 2 places at track.
8. Tristram’s Sun: No idea why he is running here… first up run over 955m was well beaten. Can’t see him measuring up over the 1200m today either based on previous preps.
9. Sebring Sun: Placed third in three of his last four runs and only poor run was back in this grade. Maps well enough from barrier but clearly has to improve onwards again.
10. Temps Voleur: Never placed from 6 attempts at this distance. Never won at track and best over 2000m+.
11. Scelto: 1 place from 7 starts at this distance. Never won at track and best over 2000m+.
12. Pravro: Did a lot wrong last start at course in much easier grade. Previous tow runs on heavy won well. Hard to suggest on form or even speccing.
Comments: This looks a clear race in three with Admiral, Keen Array and Illustrious Lad all close to the top of the ratings. Illustrious Lad maps the worst of all the runners today and I have to take the horse on, giving me the other two runners mapping well going forward that I’ll be backing.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Keen Array 2 units @ $4.00. Admiral 1.5 units @ $6.50
