Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on the 10 October 2015. Today launches the first day of the Caulfield Carnival with a great day of racing on the cards. Racing gets underway just after 1pm and goes until after 6pm, so you can expect the sunny 27’C day to have an effect on the track which is worth keeping an eye on all day. Overall there are a few bets on the card that stand out while there is a load of value on offer also. Best Bet is very confident today and we hope to get out of the day with a few winners at very least and hopefully a healthy Quaddie. As always, you can check out my trackwalking thoughts on Twitter – the track at Caulfield will play fair – the inside is every chance with less wear and tear than 2-3-4 out in the straight – expect the weather to firm the track out throughout the day with leaders gaining an advantage as the day goes on with the inside holding up. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 10 – In Style on the Each-Way
Several bookies offering above $10/$3 at the time of writing. Group 1 winner over in New Zealand. First up today for 9 months… has been in training a while and jump outs/trials have been fair. Expecting the track to consider to firm up throughout the day with the inside ground holding up strong. The natural leader in the race and the run Danestroem put in last start suggests we won’t be getting taken on to set a hot tempo required to suit the main chances behind us. Class runner and double figure odds, confidence is high.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Two Horse Play – Back Good Value & Amovatio to win
Expecting there to be a lack of tempo in this race today. While you may think that will suit those expected to be on the speed, i disagree. Good Value will be up there but i expect just a sit to be taken while Amovatio will be out the back. I can’t see any speed in the race which will set it up for an old fashioned sit and sprint, so i’m very happy to back the two non-grinders in the race proven with 600m sectionals that should be too good for the rest of the field. 1.5 units on Amovatio and 1 unit on Good Value should get you $3.20 odds at time of writing.
Melbourne Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 – Sertorius on the Each-Way
Flew home strongly last start with some very strong sectionals in WFA-G1 Class off a strong tempo. Step up to 2400m is ideal today and we KNOW he will be suited by a strong staying test to the line which Black Tomahawk is expected to set up from 800m out. Key today is he maps perfectly to sit just off the speed off the rails. $13/$4 available at time of writing.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 9, 14, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1000m – Inglis Debutant Stakes
Gear Changes: Highland Beat- Lugging Bit On, Valliano – Lugging Bit On, Literate – Winkers On
1. Fontein Lad: Three trials to date and well beaten in all three. Looks one to safely take on.
2. Highland Beat: Expected to run a very good race according to stable – they like him by the sounds of it. May be ‘green’ and do alot wrong.
3. Preemptive: Not the worst trial you will ever see… had a few weeks between runs and dryer track today could see a load of improvement. Don’t discount.
4. Terindah: Unseen Griffiths runner and the money has come for him. Well bred and hard to look past.
5. Thar: Mother was a $700,000 purchase and placed in Group 3 class over the sprint distance at this track during career. Been a drifter since markers opened and trial was fair but not anything to be jumping in at the price.
6. Valliano: Yard suggests he has done everything right and has no issues with ‘doing everything right’ on the day. Dunn gets the ride and good barrier suggests might be favoured runner.
7. Flying Jess: Race favourite after a 4 length trial win. Looks a handy one.
8. Literate: Nice enough trial run when just beaten 2nd. Well bred.
9. Magical Milly: Another with decent trial form. Money has come for her.
10. Missrock: Well beaten in trial. Money been against.
11. Pearl Congenial: Two trials to date and proved that she is consistently on the level and going okay. Looks the one to follow.
12. Thomasina: Strong enough win in trial first up. Looks a handy type.
Comments: You can’t ever bet with confidence in these races. The trial form looks only fair and i’d be taking a chance with an unseen horse that the money has come for.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Terindah E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Schillaci Stakes
Gear Changes: Lankan Rupee – Race Plates On, Alpha Miss – Cheekers First Time & Concussion Plates Again & Lugging Bit Off & Race Plates Off
1. Lankan Rupee: Clear leader, wide barrier is a good thing, great trial, Group 1 winner, up against a field of 2nd class horses. Just simply wins.
2. Shiraz: Very good horse in the making and the owners will be over-joyed with the 2nd place prize today. Ran 3rd in a Group race behind Rebel Dane and Ball of Muscle and that form has measured up again with both those horses running 2nd behind Buffering and Terravista, horses that Lankan Rupee beats for breakfast when at his best.
3. The Monstar: Thought his run 2nd to Sabatini had a lot of merit first up and was a follow forward run. Have to improve again to run top 2 today, but has the ability to run well.
4. Cashed: 955m 3rd to Tuscan Sling straight up to this. Hard task.. fighting out for 3rd.
5. Alpha Miss: Good trial last start at Cranbourne. Ran 4th to First Seal/Winx/Earthquake last prep she went around in and previous runs close 2nd to Winx beating Earthquake… obviously has ability but taking a long time to get her right.
6. I Love It: At her best can run top 3. Certainly doesn’t appeal to me though.
Comments: Lankan Rupee smashes it in with the rail playing perfectly early on today. Shiraz/Alpha Miss and The Monstar should be fighting out the other two places. I’d need $1.40 to back Lankan Rupee today.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Lankan Rupee to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Thoroughbred Club Stakes
Gear Changes: Irada – Barrier Blanket First Time
1. Harlem River: Looks the leader today and while she has drawn barrier 7, she is the horse drawn the most inside that is expected to push forward. Won’t get any soft runs today and best run last prep was over the 1400m. Obviously has ability.
2. Serenade: Will sit off the speed today. Had every possible chance last start but was well beaten by Take Pride. Have to improve today to beat these, but we know she does have ability and improves each run in.
3. Miss Gidget: Easy kill first up in maiden class. Measured up last prep 2nd to Fontition at course and similar distance in the strongest types of races. Obviously has ability and will be on speed.
4. Secret Agenda: Well backed first up at Moonee Valley but well beaten by Take Pride. Stayed at the sprint distance today. Awkward barrier.
5. Viddora: Good wins over in Adelaide and well backed last start in similar grade at Moonee Valley but found very little. Flat run.. has to improve on that.
6. Invincible Heart: Did a lot wrong two back when well beaten favourite in Adelaide bucking at start. Did a lot wrong again last start at Caulfield over racing the whole way but still held on. Good type.
7. Serene Majesty: 5.3 length win in maiden class on a firm track. Just have to forgive the run last start at Randwick down to not enjoying a soft track or flat run. Has the ability on last start ratings.
8. Irada: Last prep measured up to the top class. Won at this distance. Obviously better over further but good enough to win this especially if tempo is fierce out front as expected.
9. Cocoa Doll: Maiden winner, decent type, well backed that day. Have to show a lot to win this.
10. Northern Model: Didn’t measure up last prep to top level but good maiden win in average race. Has to improve.
11. Little Indian: Strong run home blocked for runs behind Invincible Heart. Will enjoy that run and improve today. Can win.
Comments: They will go absolutely hammer and tongs out the front today and i’m expecting this to be a race where they get every possible from the back. Irada is the ideal horse and i have a big opinion of her. Won’t be surprised is Cassidy rides for luck either but i’m happy ridden either way. Great odds against this lot.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Irada E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Weekend Hussler Stakes
Gear Changes: The Bowler – Winkers First Time, Good Value – Concussion Plates Again & Visor First Time & Blinkers Off, Mecir – Glue On Shoes First Time
1. Amovatio: Consistent type that seems to find his best over similar distances. Last pre won in Open class over 1400m then 1600m in Listed class. Top weight.
3. The Bowler: Another consistent type that always seems to run well. Ignore first up and rate on previous preps best runs. 1400m is IDEAL today and last start at Caulfield at double figures ran nicely 1.8L 6th behind Fell Swoop. Barrier 2 should be much closer to the speed if not the speed in the race with a lack of it.
4. Good Value: Will sit just off the pace today from barrier 6. Won well last start at course and distance but up 2kg today has him back with them. Should get a good enough run to be every chance.
5. Richie’s Vibe: Based on last two starts you can’t be overly confident he is going well enough. At his best he can win, but it’s been a long time since we have seen that.
6. Streets Away: Haven’t seen a good run from him all prep. Hasn’t won since 2013… watch to see if money comes for him though.
7. Mecir: Found very little first up. About as much as he found last prep. Can’t trust.
8. Eximius: Doesn’t win out of turn. Long time between drinks and need the run today for mine.
9. Pago Rock: Too hard to believe last two starts when compared to two previous starts. Forgive one last time?
10. Tristram’s Sun: Flew home last start at Caulfield suited by the strong tempo and no weight after a good trial. Goes well at distance but does want further to reach best again. Maps well today.
Comments: I’m a fan of Tristram’s Sun but i can’t see the pace to suit being on today. The same is said for The Bowler who has had his best runs off strong tempos. I think the two horses most suited by the tempo today are Good Value and Amovatio to out sprint the field.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Good Value (1 unit) and Amovatio to win (1.5 units) – Current odds for this bet are $3.20 for either horse to win.
Caulfield Race 5 – 2400m – Herbert Power
Gear Changes: Excess Knowledge – Blinkers Off, Albonetti – Concussion Plates Again, Bikila – Winkers Again
1. Prince of Penzance: Reckon he wanted more sting out last start on the firm track at Moonee Valley. Up to 2400m obviously ideal but last two runs suggest needs to improve today. Out the back from horrible barrier.
2. Sertorius: Out the back last start in WFA-G1 and flew home loving the tempo. Step up to 2400m should be ideal on what we saw there. Looks good enough and could sit more forward from better barrier today.
3. Amralah: Further back than expected last start at Flemington and finished off nicely, but was no match for a few better. Back in grade and up to 2400m looks suited.. but is he better over this distance than 2000m? Will be strong to the line and expected on speed today.
4. Escado: Led, won, last start at Moonee Valley after giving me the eye, nod and wink in the yard to put a small bet on him – he had firm form. Obviously improved to win Group 3 last start and up to 2400m ideal on Group 3 win last prep over this distance. Have to improve again.
5. Excess Knowledge: Tactically beaten last start at Caulfield held up on too long and missed the bus. Much harder race again today is this, but he has the ability. Poor barrier a huge disadvantage.
6. Bondeiger: Getting up to his distance today. Ground home last start at Caulfield with the strong tempo over the 2000m. Needs it tough and hard out front and i don’t see that on mapping, even with Black Tomahawk probably putting speed into it from the 800m.
7. Black Tomahawk: Let go 800m out last start at Caulfield and tactics won the race. They won’t be caught flat footed today and will know the deal. Others preferred.
8. Bohemian Lily: Looks the on speed horse today. Well beaten last three runs but not disgraced at all. Back to firmer track today ideal and so is this distance. Could find her best and 53kg looks reasonable.
9. Albonetti: Soft run two back at Flemington well suited and out sprinted them. Much harder race last start at Caulfield and paid the price. Need to improve.
10. At First Sight: Ground home well again last start but not sure we can touch him today after every possible the last three starts. Needs 2000m.
11. Mister Impatience: 3000m and 3200m last prep. Found out over 2400m and 2600m. Needs further you would expect.
12. Bikila: 1.8L 4th to Mongolian Khan to finish off last prep which was quite amazing all things considered. Up to 2400m today but surely not after last start run.
Comments: Sertorius maps and is weighted to win this off the last two runs in WFA-G1 class. Looks ideally suited here and is massive overs. Respect both the favourites as the horses to beat.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Sertorius E/W
Caulfield Race 6 – 2000m – Caulfield Stakes
Gear Changes: None
1. Criterion: Been up a long time this prep travelling around the world. Not disgraced over in the UK at all, but you would need to see his peak run today to beat all these and you have to question that occuring after a flight back and the dry track.
2. Fawkner: This run today will bring him on for his tilt at the Cox Plate. Simply put, he has to win today. Will get the gun run most likely outside of Entirely Platinum, or behind Pornichet one off the rail. Respect today.
3. Happy Trails: Interrupted prep so far with just one ‘clear’ run the whole prep two back. Didn’t get tested in the Turnbull and will still be backing fitness coming into this. Needs the run for mine.
4. Contributer: Well beaten in the Underwood. Will have a MUCH easier pace set out front today and should see his best come back here… but on the last two runs can you actually back him to beat home all of these runners?
5. Pornichet: I really thought his last start run in the George Main had a lot of merit. He was ground down by the two better horses on the day, but he gets up to the 2000m which is where I believe he is at his most efficient. I’ve been doubtful of him being up to this class in the past, but if he is going to get it done, it’s going to be in this race today.
6. Entirely Platinum: Had to do a lot of work to get the lead last start in the Epsom and ran out of gas late… did stick on as expected but had 4 pass him. It was a day suited to back markers but Ecuador who was on speed beat him by 1.1L. Not here today for mine.
7. Kermadec: Untested over this distance today and you have to have massive questions over how effective he will be with the step up to 2000m. Waller knows what he is doing so it’s hard to doubt the horse here, but first try at the distance in this type of race and first time the Melbourne way this prep on a warm day… the horses last 5 runs on a Good track have not resulted in a win!
8. Mongolian Khan: Continues to improve with each run this prep and 3rd up today should be at the top of his game. 2000m just a run short based on last prep and last two runs also… will complete him for the Caulfield Cup run.
Comments: I’m looking around Kermadec in the betting today. I just couldn’t dive into the $3 on offer against this lot. I think Pornichet will give the race a fair shake and anything above $7 looks backable. Fawkner will be hitting his peak today and looks ready to get a win on the board today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fawkner to win. Saver bet Pornichet.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1600m – Toorak Handicap
Gear Changes: Puccini – Ear Muffs First Time, Akavoroun – Blinkers Again
1. Lucky Hussler: Huge run last start at Caulfield blocked for runs, should have run the race if got clear running.. but that’s what happens. Barrier 4 today, should have less excuses and up to 1600m should suit. Best at 1400m in past for mine so has to get that extra distance today. Also needs to sit much closer.
2. Stratum Star: Very strong win from on speed last start at Caulfield. Ran Boban to 0.2L the previous run. Up to 1600m should suit even more. You go back through his record and he has missed one place in 14 runs. Barrier 2 is ideal to get a run just off the speed again.
3. Leebaz: Not a bad run from further back last start compared to previous tactics. Will struggle to get on speed again today and poor barrier hurts chances.
4. Strawberry Boy: Very good on speed run sticking on for days setting a hot tempo out the front.. Will be even hotter today. Ran Winx to 0.5L the previous start… step up to 1600m the key and Cassidy won’t stop riding him out.
5. Ninth Legion: Decent type but one I want to take on today even from the barrier.
6. Puccini: Horrible both turns this prep.. can put in good runs but i couldn’t have him.
7. Disposition: Every possible chance last start at Caulfield but better horses got him. Better weighted today against Stratum Star but giving Lucky Hussler weight. Have to consider.
8. Kenjorwood: Huge win last start at Caulfield. Back to 1600m ideal for sure.. will be on speed with a strong tempo being set… well suited to this.
10. Flamingo Star: Every chance last start at Rosehill but failed to run it out…. tempo will be the same here. Take on from barrier.
11. Hi World: Back to 1600m more suitable than last start 1800m… back to this grade obviously much better suited also off 54.5kg but barrier hurts as well. Has shown he can handle a hot tempo and weighted well so have to consider.
12. Hopfgarten: Well beaten last start no surprise. Could run better today up to 1600m but will be a long way back even from the 1.
13. Noble Protector: What do we make of first up… big warning sign. You couldn’t bet confidently into her here but also can’t leave out of any multiples.
14. Jacquinot Bay: Gains 3kg on Kenjorwood today for a 0.2L defeat last start and is absolutely flying. Barrier 18 is horrible but that simply means he will be on the speed toughing it out with a weight advantage. Looks a massive blowout chance. Big price. Keen.
15. Abidewithme: Good mares grade win first up and set square has franked the form since. Ran nicely last start and barrier means will be as far back again today which hurts chances. Has ability.
16. Akavoroun: Last win was running down The Cleaner so will be able to do the same today fi good enough, but that was a long time ago, been a long time since we have seen his best.
17. Rhythm To Spare: Awkward barrier today. Going ‘okay’ but has to significantly improve to figure here.
18. Moonovermanhattan: Not on last run.
Comments: Wide wide wide open race. Speed will be on and you want to be within the top 8 on the turn for mine to win this. Jacquinot Bay is a HUGE price here and could surprise. Strawberry Boy will be hard to get past and Hi World looked weighted so well. Lucky Hussler also looks suited and so does Stratum Star.. Disposition can’t be discounted either… yep open race.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14
Strategy: I’ll be backing Jacquinot Bay E/W and smaller win bets on Strawberry Boy and Hi World.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – Thousand Guineas
Gear Changes: Don’t Doubt Marley – Tongue Tie Off
1. Pasadena Girl: Backed into favourite, the outside barrier means we know where she will be in the running, out the back and off the rail. Last start got stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses and really just had no where to go. 1600m suits as shown by the last prep win over this distance up at Randwick. Only query is the lack of significant tempo in the race out the front from where she will get in the run.
2. Miss Gunpowder: Talented filly who won with ease last start when allowed to lead them around at her own pace. Sat until the 400m and just flew away from them solidly. Horror barrier drawn but I believe it’s a blessing in disguise as they were thinking of taking a sit from an inside barrier… expect to see her on speed and very hard to catch. 1600m will suit as she wasn’t losing any ground on the line last start.
3. Sagaronne: Beaten 4.75L and 6.4L the last two starts this prep, struggle to suggest her on current form but we do understand best was 0.8L off Press Statement last prep.
4. Jamaeka: Two runs this prep for 3rd and 3rd. Both starts she sat wide with no cover and from barrier 9 there is actually a possibility of it happening again. Certainly shown the ability to run well today, but needs to take a step up to beat this lot.
5. Take Pride: All you can do is win and win well and that is exactly what she did last start at Moonee Valley. Well beaten two and three runs back and worth noting she was 2.3 lengths off Miss Gunpowder first up at course over 1100m. Much harder race today and big jump to 1600m a bit of an unknown 4th up.
6. Badawiya: Got the gun run last start at Moonee Valley and blazed away from talented types including Sacred Eye on a day when it did favour being closer to the front than the back. Was a big improvement on the previous three runs, but you feel she has to take the next step today to beat all of these. Have to consider.
7. Stay With Me: Very flat last start at Caulfield and if you are going to put in a flat performance, it’s better to be in the prelude rather than the Guineas itself! Two back run at Moonee Valley was a huge effort and a repeat anything similar to that from the gun draw should see her in the finish.
8. Payroll: Looks a big price to day on form! Ignore first up run and look to last start when jumped to 1400m. Wide no cover and pushed along just far too early. Cassidy onboard so don’t be surprised if he tries to lead from barrier 1, but i reckon he takes a sit. No excuses run.
9. Alaskan Rose: Simply wasn’t good enough last start taking the grade jump. Very keen to take her on here as i just don’t think she is up to this level of race on everything i’ve seen so far.
10. Super Cash: Good run again last start. Had every possible chance but out sprinted over the 1400m. Doubt the 1600m will suit on what i’ve seen.
11. Don’t Doubt Marley: A bit unlucky with no real run last start, also had a bit of a luckless run the race before. Has ability but racing pattern gets into a load of trouble and can’t rate high enough on what we have seen so far.
Comments: Miss Gunpowder gets the nod again today even with the barrier going forward. Stay With Me looks the chance among the favourites while Take Pride looks a huge price on last start if the horse can handle the distance and Payroll also looks a chance at big odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Miss Gunpowder E/W. Smaller bet Take Pride to win.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Caulfield Guineas
Gear Changes: Odyssey Moon – Blinkers off & Winkers on, Ready for Victory – Blinkers First Time, Rageese – Blinkers First Time & Ear Plugs First Time & Winkers Off, Snoopy – Winkers Off, More Than Most – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit First Time & Tongue Tie First Time & Winkers Off, Mr Individual – Blinker Off Side On First Time & Blinkers Off First Time & Cross Over Noseband First Time
1. Press Statement: Given the Sydney visitors draw from barrier 14, Press Statement showed he is the real deal the last two three starts. His best runs were on a Soft 5. With a 27’c day forecast, it will be interesting to see if he is really suited by the ground. There is no disputing him over this distance or his class, but he has the world against him from the barrier, from his racing pattern and I’m happy to take him on.
2. Odyssey Moon: Solid to the line last start at Caulfield and it was his best run of the prep. Won’t be as fast a tempo today which is a bit of a concern but he does look to be wanting the 1600m and the change to winkers could help. Barrier 13 hurts his chances though making it possible he could end up 3-wide in the running again today which is no favour.
3. Ready For Victory: Struggling to get going the last two runs this prep when outpaced by the strong tempo. I don’t think it will be AS strong today which should help the horse settle and i think you will see his best today. Good barrier today in 4 gives him every chance to settle in a reasonable position, but i’m not convinced he has the early speed to get the position needed to come over the top late and claim the race. Blinkers on the key.
4. Rageese: Every chance on speed last start at Rosehill and was a very disappointing run. Terrible barrier today pretty much ruins all chances. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him join Snoopy on speed.
5. Dal Cielo: Group horse and winner over in New Zealand over the 1200m distance. First go 1400m last start was very strong and showed he clearly should have no issues with the distance today ridden with a sit as advised by the stable. Barrier 8 perfect and shouldn’t have an issue getting a forward position off the speed.
6. Bon Aurum: Consistently continues to get the job done! Further back than previous runs last start and suited by the tempo, looks a very good type and should have no issues with the distance. Awkward enough barrier but good enough.
7. Shards: Cassidy takes the ride. Well beaten last two starts up in Sydney. Wide barrier so will be pushing forward as per advised tactics from stable to sit top 5… wouldn’t be shocked if Cassidy boots on for the lead.
8. Sovereign Nation: Good win from the back last start at Moonee Valley, but was it really good enough to win a Guineas? I’d be shocked if we saw this horse finish over the line first.
9. Bassett: Sat off the strong speed first up at Moonee Valley set up by Keen Array and Mawahibb and smashed them. Sharp increase in distance the obvious concern and tried the same last prep and was well beaten by Press Statement running just 5th. Looks a good horse obviously on form and barrier should see him get a nice forward position.
10. Last Bullet: Smashed the clock late went sat out the back after being slowly away. First up this prep led over in Adelaide in a 4 horse race and previous prep sat on speed in an 8 horse race winning a Breeders Stakes over in Adelaide. A midfield run gives him every possible chance to win this on sectionals.
11. Lizard Island: Smashed it in last start in a maiden, but that was expected. Perfect draw today from barrier 2, will get a gun run just off the speed and have every possible if good enough. Found a few too good the last two starts in city company an issue.
12. Kentucky Flyer: Well beaten last start over the 1600m at course and distance. Did go forward two runs back to sit just off the pace but larger field, may struggle to have the early speed to get better than midfield. Has ability but I struggle to see the class to win.
13. Tarzino: Looks a serious horse going forward, but is 1600m not his pinnacle? Aimed at further this prep, he will run a very good race but find a few too good based on his racing pattern.
14. Snoopy: Massive run last start in the Prelude beaten just 0.5L when over raced. Winkers come off for that reason. On speed first two runs of this prep winning both of those, from the barrier I expect Dunn will be pushing forward and could very well find himself leading the field on a rail I think is suitable to win the race. Looks a massive chance on all my ratings and big overs of the race on the last start run at $40+ when Dal Cielo and Tulsa are $10.
15. Tulsa: Out the back last start and barrier today means similar will occur if not 3-wide the trip which isn’t suited one bit today. Will be covering a massive amount of ground and will need a miracle to get the win today. Will truly be a deserving winner if he can pull this off.
16. More Than Most: Disappointing run last start at Pakenham when well beaten, but will improve for the run. Others preferred.
17. Mr Individual: Had a very good spot in running but couldn’t run it out last start. Could have been a bit flat, could just not be favoured by the speed. Barrier is horrible and will be pushed forward or sit 3-wide doing stupid things.
Comments: There has to be a leader in this race, but for mine, it’s unclear at this stage which could mean we have any type of tempo. When that is the case all I can do is lean to those runners that will settle in a strong position in the first half of the race. There are several key chances in this race and it’s a much harder race than simply Press Statement being a $2.30 favourite. Dal Cielo is the proven on speed runner, no matter the tempo and i think you just can’t look beyond the horse at the price. Snoopy is the clear value of the race at huge odds from on speed and i’m very keen. Last Bullet is also a bit of value at the price if sits where i believe they will get.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 9, 14, 15
Strategy: Dal Cielo to win. Also betting Snoopy to win.
Caulfield Race 10 – 1200m – Cape Grim Beef Steaks
Gear Changes: Catch That Cat – Winkers Off & Blinkers On
1. In Style: Group 1 winner, yes GROUP 1 winner over in New Zealand over this distance. Natural leader. Never won first up but run well both times in reasonable grade. Top weight and deserves it here with Listed, Group 3 and Group 1 wins on record. Front runner bias expected late in day for mine also. Very keen.
2. Bring Me The Maid: Best runs in past clearly come on the wetter tracks. Didn’t find her best last prep outside of a heavy track run. No thanks.
3. Wawail: No luck last start when blocked for runs at Caulfield. You don’t get any fitness out of a run like that and she certainly won’t be peaking coming into this today. Maps a dream.
4. Politeness: Big big big win last start at Caulfield. Form has been franked and looks well in if can make up the ground required.
5. Ygritte: Strong form last prep in 3YO grade but never beat the best in that level. Much harder here first up. Take on.
6. Danestroem: Consistent type that just doesn’t like to win. Been 15 runs since a win and this is her hardest test today. Will run well again on speed.
7. Soosa Rama: Three runs this prep and all poor even if excuses. Not for mine.
8. Tahni Dancer: Has ability on previous preps but a long time since a win in a maiden only. Only fair first up.
9. Catch That Cat: Meow! Front then midfield last start. Can’t make more of the run than that. Has to improve.
10. Matilija: Very well backed last start at Caulfield. Does alot wrong in racing to get beat, especially jumping poorly. Can’t afford to do that from barrier today, will be no chance if does it again. Has the ability to win.
11. Exclusive Lass: All you can do is smash the field you are put up against and that is what she did last start at Moonee Valley blocked for runs as well. Maps in the right spot.
Comments: Expecting a leader bias later in the day with the firming track and inside holding up. In Style sticks out like a sore thumb on form and on mapping – she has been in training a while and trialled nicely i’m told. Very happy to be betting in at the $10+ on how i feel the race will be run.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4
Strategy: In Style on the Each-Way.
