Welcome to The Profits form guide for Ballarat and Ascot on the 21 November 2015. We move from city tracks to Ballarat today in Melbourne while we see the start of the WA carnival with two Group 1s at Ascot. We landed one of our three main bets last week at a huge price at the jump in Almoonqith while our best bet never got out – it happens – that’s racing! We have a very poor strike rate on these days in the early lower class races so instead we have focused our ability on the two main races over in WA and the last four races of the day at Ballarat – there are simply too many runners and unknowns with the early six races on the card to give any confident tips. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
WA Best Bet
Ascot Race 7 – Three Horse Play – Buffering, Fast ‘n’ Rocking and Checkpoint to win.
3 units Buffering to win. 1 unit Fast ‘N’ Rocking to win. 0.25 units Checkpoint to win.
Melbourne Best Bet
Ballarat Race 9 – Two horse Play – Profit Share and Clairvaux to win.
Back Profit Share for 2 units. Back Clairvaux for 0.75 units.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 10, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ascot Race 7 – 1200m – Winterbottom Stakes
1. Buffering: Sensational horse. Traveled perfectly and jumped out very well during the week on the track. No issues with the heat. Already won a WFA-G1 this prep first up and was a huge run at Flemington last start. One of two clear leaders today so barrier no issue.
2. Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Gun barrier draw will see him sit just worse than midfield i’d imagine. Very strong win two back at Caulfield and then last start was a strong 4th behind Chautauqua. Going the right way.
3. Watermans Bay: Will be out the back. His very best runs have been good enough to win Group races, but he just hasn’t been good enough for a WFA-G1. He was well beaten by the best sprinters in Victoria on his last attempt, but that’s no disgrace. Just missed first up, would have wanted a win there to be winning this.
4. Shining Knight: Goes back even from the barrier. Never won in class and best runs have been over further distances in the past. Not one for me.
5. Dawn Approach: Threatened last prep to be a really good horse but just found a few in the top grades to best him. Going okay since coming back but not good enough to win. Wide barrier, will struggle to get a lead here. Needs further.
6. Rommel: Will position just off the speed from a solid enough barrier. Best runs in past over here were over further with a 1600m win over Disposition and WFA-G1 7th to Moriarty. Went over to Victoria for one run last prep and got the win in 3YO-GP3 grade. Much harder this task.
7. Rock Magic: Never won at this grade before. Last start surprise winner in Group 3 company just taking the win. Has ability but a win would shock over all of these on this track.
8. Akhedasset: WFA-G3 winner two back then failed to placed last start in a Min-78 race….. hard horse to line up and looks one you just have to take on.
9. Liberty’s Gem: Won a GP3 as a 3YO over 1400m but it wasn’t the hardest test you will ever see. Failed to go on with it last prep. Came back okay enough this prep but prefer others on current form.
10. Checkpoint: Placed 15 of last 17 races! Continues to run well doing a lot wrong. Obviously has huge ability. Will get a nice spot in running today and even though he has been slightly short of a win in similar grades, he looks the type to cause a shock if good enough.
11. Madassa: Hasn’t done too much wrong in his short career to date with 7 wins 4 places from 13 starts. Gone through the grades taking the money at each opportunity. Well beaten last start in Group 3 company.. poor barrier. Has to improve to best all these.
12. Sujet: Cost punters a fortune the past five runs with just the one win. Going through the grades but this is too much too soon for him.
13. Magnifisio: Massive chance today but drew a horror barrier. Will get back midfield at best and will need a lot of luck to get a good spot in running. Continues to jump slowly this prep a big concern. Best form is good enough to measure up but barrier certainly makes it very hard for mine.
14. Cool Trade: Pulled up lame after last start in Group 3 company when well backed. Hasn’t won for a very long time. Can’t see it and couldn’t have off a lameness issue.
16. Lucky Street: Easy start to finish win last start at course and distance. Looked a very good type as a 2YO winning strongly in LR and G2 company but return to the track has been less than very impressive. Testing material this. Weighted well is the positive.
17. Silverstream: Going well enough this prep to suggest she is a place chance. Doesn’t look a top class type but is a solid enough sprinter to consider a chance.
Comments: This is Buffering’s race to lose. No surprise to see the money continues to come for him with $4 taken into $3.50 now – as i told Twitter followers, take the $4s… i’d bet down to $3s in this. Fast ‘N ‘Rocking at the $8.50 is also very much worth a bet.. it’s a horse on the up and i think it’s good enough to win here. Finally, Checkpoint has the points on the board for mine at the $51s available to run a cheeky race if fit enough.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 3 units Buffering to win. 1 unit Fast ‘N’ Rocking to win. 0.25 units Checkpoint to win.
Ascot Race 8 – 1600m – Railway Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: Old mate Bart. Simply too good for them the last three starts heading into this. Geez he is a fighter which you just can’t buy in a horse. Continues to win the tight ones. Awkward barrier today from 11, I think he will get a nice enough spot worse than midfield. Obviously a top chance in this race on current and previous form.
2. Messene: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington after two solid enough runs before that in Group company. Stable obviously believe he just wants a dryer track and is going well enough to push onto this. Have to respect and good barrier today should give him a gun run.
3. Delicacy: Gets a 2kg swing on Black Heart Bart today for the first up run 0.5L off him. Up in distance a big plus but her very best runs have been over further in the past also. Assume they will be pushing forward from the barrier for an onspeed spot. Barrier makes it tough. Will need to be very good to win it.
5. Real Love: Didn’t beat much first up in Group 3 but that’s all you have to do is win. Didn’t measure up over in Victoria last prep after coming over from a good campaign back home.. the distance step down may just not have worked. Best runs in the past have been over further is the issue and poor barrier.
6. Wink and a Nod: Three runs against Black Heart Bart this prep and beaten in both. Draws her first poor barrier today as well… obviously weighted to have a chance but hast o improve to beat every horse here including Bart.
7. Balmont Girl: Doesn’t win out of turn and has been almost two years between wins. Not going well enough on last few runs for me to back.
8. Bass Strait: Good horse back in Victoria but never a top class horse. Group 3 winner over here but certainly not a Group 1 horse.
9. Battle Hero: Proven at this course and distance and goes well in the top class based on 3YO races. Has to make a big step up today though and Pike jumps off for Delicacy says it all really. Good barrier.
10. Good Project: Very strong run last start from the back when blocked for runs at Flemington 2nd to Malaguerra. It was a good trial run heading into this today. Looks to be the type of horse that can run well. C Williams wide barrier negatives though.
11. Hazzabeel: Running well enough the last few starts heading into this. Got a win over Battle Hero last start but fairly beaten three previous runs by Real Love or Black Heart Bart.
12. Mr Utopia: Ran poorly last start at Sandown. His very best is obviously good enough to measure up, but we haven’t seen it this prep to date.
13. My Sister Lil: Might be wanting a soft track to find her best form i’d suggest on recent form. Has to improve and ground not suited.
14. Special Delivery: Keeps winning in much easier races. Hard to see the step up.
15. Tower of Lonhro: Not good enough two runs to date to measure up. Needs further to find his best.
Comments: Certainly an open race. Black Heart Bart appeals on top from the Perth crew while Messene and Good Project are both live chances of those flying in for the race today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Black Hear Bart for 1.5 Units. Back Messene for 1 unit.
Ballarat Race 7
1. Husson Eagle: Goes very well first up. Proved to be a very good type with 3YO wins over nice types at Caulfield and Flemington last prep. His best is MORE than good enough even at the weights.
2. Nordic Empire: Got the chop and Price believes he is handling the change very well and working much better this time around. Obviously proved to be a very nice type and placed in Group class in the past. 3 first up runs, 3 wins.
3. Illustrious Lad: Very long last prep with 12 runs. Won 3 of his last 6 in that prep so took a while to get into the prep. Has the ability if fit but will he be ready?
4. Murt The Flirt: Promised a lot in the past and delivered very little. Happy to take him on again here from the barrier.
5. Moonlight Hussler: Only win to date a 2YO-LR in 2013. Found nothing the next few preps really but first up run was encouraging. Not sure in this grade though.
6. Reigning Meteor: Always seems to run quite well but didn’t measure up to best grades last prep. Has to have improved and first up was poor.
7. Our Catch: Back to a firmer track today. Only ever won a maiden. Not sure i could trust him on previous preps and 0 places at this distance in the past.
8. Lock and Load: Return to form last start but couldn’t win a BM-64. No thanks.
9. Honourable Tycoon: 4th in 3YB-64 to finish last prep. Maiden only winner. Have to have improved significantly to measure up here.
10. Tapestry Vision: Another BM-64 non-placed maiden only winner. Not good enough.
11. Wild Rain: Huge run last start at Flemington on the worst side of the track. Very strong lead into this today. Not sure she wants a very firm track is the only issue if its a warm day.
12. Boundary: Huge run first up at Mornington from way too far back. Expect big improvement here.
13. Prompt Return: Horrible first up. Not sure what to make of that run that can win this.
15. Captain Crackerjak: Couldn’t win a maiden.
16. Magnette: Not good enough based on last start.
17. Lassies Venture: Maiden only winner. Easily held.
Comments: Couldn’t touch the short price on Wild Rain even if the horse is a good chance here. Husson Eagle from the positive barrier will get a gun run and looks the horse to beat for mine based on his top.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Husson Eagle to win. Smaller bet Boundary.
Ballarat Race 8 – 2200m – Ballarat Cup
1. Junoob: Not sure what to make of his last start run at Flemington coming off a nice run in Listed company. Not going well enough to win a Group race, but this is a Listed race! Last win was a WFA-G2 win over 2000m beating Criterion from an on speed position. Good barrier.
2. Index Linked: Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Close 3rd blocked for runs in a Listed race two back behind Digitalism. Precious prep measured up in group company. Maps awkwardly/well back.
3. Prince Cheri: Looked a top class horse early on in career and went around a $2.90 favourite in a Group 1 but since then hasn’t even had a win. Last start was a fair run from on speed but clearly has to improve on that run.
4. Digitalism: Well beaten last start at Sandown. Very flat run and hard to understand what happened. Better than that. Previous two races suggest he is good enough.
5. Akzar: Would have wanted him to win last start to see him winning this today. Money was against in the betting, got the dream run and ran 0.5L 4th.
6. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate. Always tries. Just not going well enough for me to consider him here.
7. Tanby: Come back with two horrible runs at lesser distances, not exactly a surprise though. Need to improve significantly to be winning this. Not long enough.
8. Tooleybuc Kid: The unforgotten run of the Bendigo Cup, he came home well enough from out the back losing a plate and being slowly away. His best generally comes at least five runs into preps based on last prep so I think he is going the right way to win this. Barrier the only issue.
9. Maygrove: Think we probably just ignore the fact Maygrove even went around last start. The run was horrible on speed… expect a sit today instead… going well enough.
10. Pondarosa Miss: Not ridden to expected plans last start at Flemington and ran horrible in turn. Best runs are good enough and good barrier today.
11. Sonntag: Is he really going well enough? Hard to have for mine.
12. Sysmo: Not sure we have seen the very best from this guy recently falling short in every race so far. Decent enough run last start… barrier horrible.
14. Lord Durante: Had his chance last start at Kyneton and just simply well beaten. Always runs a tough race and stays in it but not here.
15. Mujadale: Improved run back to form last start at Ararat, this is much harder.
16. Ungradeful Ellen: Very nice run last start at Flemington when 4th behind Lucia Valentina. Going the right way this prep… has the ability and nice barrier today.
17. Zayam: Going through the grades up in Sydney this prep. Going well but this is a big step up.
18. Wales: Not exactly in the best part of ground last start at Kyneton. Not one for mine here.
Comments: Wide open race. Not overly keen to play here. Think Tooleybuc Kid is a great chance today off a strong form line coming into this.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16
Strategy: Tooleybuc Kid E/W
Ballarat Race 9 – 1400m – Isuzu Handicap
1. Fast and Free: Won on Heavy impressively in Open class in 2014. Beat Akavoroun over a similar distance on a soft track at Moonee Valley as well that same prep. Came back poorly first up finding nothing and Bayliss takes ride today. Weighted poorly and looks to need the run.
2. Durendal: Good type. Didn’t find a lot last start at Flemington, looked a very flat run, but they did run it very fast also. Won’t be going that pace today and barrier 1 is ideal to get the dream run for this talented type. Good enough to win.
4. Orion: Every chance off a slow speed out front first up and just not good enough. Beaten by a horse not in form either. Not for mine here.
5. Tax Evader: Doesn’t win out of turn. been a long time between wins on a dry track. First up found nothing.
6. Kingdom of Dreams: Looked a nice type of horse two preps back… but came back last prep and found nothing. This prep he has been okay but not this grade.
7. Clairvaux: Always been a very solid horse and last prep proved it with two wins in a row to start the prep and a nice Flemington win over Refulgent later in the prep. First up today good barrier and 1400m looks ideal in this grade.
8. Diamonds At Noon: Ran horribly last prep not getting within 3.8L of a win. previous prep 1 run 1 win at Dunkeld. Best runs over further in the past.
9. Hinchley Wood: Had a nice last prep when even winning at Moonee Valley in this grade at a similar distance. Two runs coming into this, back to a firmer track helps… needs to improve.
10. Profit Share: City class runner proven at the top level. Blocked for runs last start at Ararat and looks to be peaking coming into this race third up. Only negative is clearly the barrier 17 drawn.
12. Bel Rhythm: Never runs a bad race without reason. Never won in this grade but many places. First up wasn’t the world run but clearly needs a few runs to be competing in this today. Has been a month between runs.
13. Mamwaazel: Put in some good enough runs last prep without placing or winning. First up did a lot wrong and ran okay. Back to dryer, win wouldn’t shock.
14. Society Man: Hasn’t won in a very long time. A nice 2nd last start at Kyneton but beaten by a decent type in Khutulun who is looking for further. Looks the leader.
15. Wrotham Heath: Hasn’t been the same horse in a while. Last prep found little. First up run was enough though to suggest he is going in the right direction this prep. Respect.
18. Elmantosh: Hasn’t won since 2013. Last start was horrible. Every chance run before at Bendigo.
19. Oltre Finito: Horrible first up. Previous preps never won in this grade. Goes okay at track.
20. Cross of Gold: Always runs well when it’s asked of him. Won just once from 16 runs this prep.
Comments: This doesn’t look the hardest race on paper and i’d be surprised if there was a shock winner at odds. Very happy to play on Profit Share and Clairvaux at the price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 10, 13, 15
Strategy: Back Profit Share for 2 units. Back Clairvaux for 0.75 units.
Ballarat Race 10 – 1200m – Tonks Plate
1. Red Bomber: Goes well at this distance. Only in for a light prep. A little fat heading into this but certainly fit enough to win. Good barrier and very good horse. Beat Trust in a Gust last prep over 1200m.
2. British General: Old mate. He doesn’t win out of turn. Hasn’t been seen in more than a year. Getting old. His best is good enough but hard to suggest it first up off that break. 3 runs 3 wins at track.
3. Hard Stride: Certainly not going as well as he could this prep. Has to improve big time to win this.
4. Metaphorical: Talented type that doesn’t win out of turn. Has won first up in the past but never won at this distance is a huge concern here with best runs last prep over 1600m and previous prep over 2040m.
5. General Jackson: Surprise win first up at Cranbourne and wasn’t the best run of the race. Ran solid enough two back behind tawteen but had every chance last start behind Trevinder well beaten. Has to improve on the last start run.
6. Pago Rock: A hard horse to catch. Ran well enough two back at Caulfield and runs five and six back were obviously good enough. Don’t leave out of your quaddie.
7. Magnus Reign: Strong return first up at Moonee Valley and then never handled the track on heavy last start. Back to dryer track, top chance here.
8. Solsay: Not going well enough this prep compared to last prep – hasn’t been able to get a win. Has to improve.
10. We’re Gonna Rock: Old mate, still going around. No thanks.
11. Weinholt: Looked a good horse in his first preps. Got a few decent wins on the record.. last win a few preps back was heavy in bm-85… then two back won at Geelong in BM-84 grade. Beaten fiarly at Flemington last start. Back to 1200m.. has won at track.
12. Whistle Baby: Certainly a nice type of horse. Has won first up but not for a long time first up. Has the ability on best runs in the past but even on that has to improve at the 1200m.
13. Gallant Harmony: Always seems to run well and continues to not win. Decent enough run last start at Moonee Valley but this is harder.
14. Villopoto: Well backed last start at Flemington but ran horrible after being vetted pre-race. Nice enough run before that at Caulfield. Can run okay from good barrier.
16. Sang Choi Bao: Every chance last few starts just not good enough. Has to improve.
Comments: The speed is expected to be on today and those sitting just off the speed as well as further back should have every possible chance. Magnus Reign looks weighted to win today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddle Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11
Strategy: Magnus Reign to win.
