Welcome to The Profits preview for Ballarat and Ascot on 19 November 2016. The better races have left us for the year and we are back to picking and choosing from around the country to get the best value on offer. We have previewed a lot of the Ballarat card for Saturday but there are 3-4 races we just couldn’t even touch based on the runners involved… but we made up for it with the three key races from Ascot with a solid bets on that card. We are heading onwards to the end of November which will mark one year since we started the new system and the results have been very positive so let’s aim to improve on those wins and finish off November strongly. Just a heads up, we have our two horses racing over the next few days. High on You is running tomorrow at Gold Coast in Race 3 and is a $7 chance currently (I’d need double figures on her trials even with the 52kg) and Time to Sail running on Monday at Ballarat in Race 8 (no market yet but i’d be happy with $4.60+ and she will go close to winning). As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Ascot Race 7 – Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $6.50. Ellicazoom – 1.6 units @ $5.00.
Next Best Bet
Ballarat Race 2 – Believe Yourself for 1.5 units @ $3.50
Best Value Bet
Ascot Race 6 – Bass Strait – 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ballarat Race 1 – 1200m – Sam Miranda Mares BM-78
1. Sea Spray: Always been a very nice type of horse and has measured up to higher grade than this in the past over further. Ran very well first up on a heavy track behind Lucky Liberty at Sale. Should be suited by this track today and while a dryer track, she certainly looks a chance.
2. Cheeky Babe: Very nice win last start at Moonee Valley over this distance in a similar class of race. Good barrier again today to get a nice spot just off the speed. Good runs in the past behind Ameristralia and two back beaten a very short favourite on a soft track behind a quality horse in Another Diamond. Best on a Good track and should run well here.
3. Entrancing: Every chance last start behind Cheeky Babe from on speed. Better weighted here today coming off two wins over in Adelaide. Clearly has ability and maps nicely to be on speed. Has to improve to beat Cheeky Babe for mine today.
4. Raven’s Fire: Never won first up in the past but does run well at this track with two placings in the past. Best runs have been on wetter tracks previously is a concern but clearly has enough ability to run well here if at her best. 7YO and yet to win at this grade is a concern.
5. Diamond Baroness: Won or run second in 6 of her last seven runs which suggests she has been very well placed all along the way. Nice run first up in slightly easier grade when only just beaten on the day with top weight. Down in weight today and up in class, but you have to believe she has ability to run well.
6. Gold Bar: Has shown us enough ability in the past to run well here today. Two back run was a good win in easier at Sale on a wetter track that may very well suit her more than a firm one like today. Goes well on track and wasn’t a bad run last start or four back at Pakenham. Has to improve.
7. Jacqui’s Joy: Her very best in the past has been more than good enough to win a race this good, but since three wins in a row, she came back and hasn’t been competitive including the first up run this prep.
9. Zambezi Diamond: Fairly hard horse to catch at the best of times. BM-64 winner four runs back this prep and hasn’t gone close to placing since. Hard to suggest even at her best. 4 runs 0 placings in this grade in the past.
10. Darcy’s Law: Never won over this distance in the past and her clearly best runs have been in easier grade over further. Struggle to suggest first up at this distance having never won on either factors.
Comments: With the stracting of Go Down from the race there really only is a few of interest on my numbers in Cheeky Babe, Entrancing and Sea Spray. Cheeky Babe is the top pick in the race but Sea Spray is a massive price in this grade going back from the wide barrier and expected to run on strongly.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Cheeky Babe to win. Also back Sea Spray.
Ballarat Race 2 – City of Ballarat Tonks Plate
1. Mighty Like: Hard horse to catch at the best of times. Found nothing the past few starts then was a hugely strong 1300m run 2nd to Dan Zephyr at Ararat in similar company. Price believes this guy is ticking over very strongly and should run well here again from out the back and being this early in the day the track won’t be too firm for him.
2. It Is Written: Old mate hasn’t won since Feb of 2015 but he never really runs a poor race and has run some crackers in the past. Two back in similar grade behind Sir Bacchus ran nicely at Moonee Valley but was well beaten over 955m last start. Goes well enough at this track and over this distance. Respect.
3. Believe Yourself: Import for the Waterhouse stable. Had been competing in Group 1 grade races over there with placings on the record in Group1 over 1600m. 4 months between runs – strangely Katelyn Mallyon gets the ride. Should position just off the leaders i’d imagine and is a very tough horse with enough to run well over this distance.
4. Smart Dart: A horse with a very large amount of potential, he takes another step up here after a very good first up win at Kyneton in BM-84 grade. Has to improve onwards and upwards but does map well just off the leaders from the inside barrier and will run well.
5. Gallant Harmony: Horrible last start, he was much better first up but even so up to this grade he has to improve.
7. Schneller: Two wins in a row in easier grades of races and over further last start. Big step up in class for a horse with ability, he has to go to another level here.
8. Aurelius Hero: Couldn’t place the last four runs in much easier races. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Believe Yourself is a horse that ran 4th in the 2014 Golden Slipper before heading overseas to Singapore. Has measured up to Group 1 level over there to record placings. She is first up here today off a nice short spell and finds herself very well in at the weights over a distance that is more than suitable on past experience – trial was okay but didn’t blow us away which is why we are only having a small, not large sized bet. A strong type that would love the tempo to be on. Mighty Like looks the main threat on paper.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Believe Yourself for 1.5 units @ $3.50
Ballarat Race 3 – 1400m – Vobis Gold Eureka Concerte
1. Valliano: Ignore last start at Flemington when not suited by a very strong tempo and look to the previous best runs in the past including two back when a very strong run 4th behind Peacock and a few other nice types. Top weight but deserves it here. Good enough.
2. Mr Markou: McEvoy is a master of placement and he looks well enough in here today. He doesn’t win often this horse, but he has been prepared for this race today with two runs heading in. Would love a bit more sting out of the ground i’d imagine but expect him to run well.
3. Urban Ruler: Surprising price being bet today. Yes, he is a nice type, but time and time again they seem to bet the Eurell horses at unders. Best runs have been on Soft tracks and has to prove it on a much firmer track here today. Last time he bet Valliano he was beaten by 2.8L!
4. Gratwick: An interesting runner for the Weir stable. Well beaten last start over 1400m at Flemington from on speed. Previous run couldn’t win in easier grade either. Has to improve onwards today.
5. Atlantic Express: Always showed a bit but never got close to a win as a 2YO. Came back and won last start in a maiden quite well and looks to be wanting further to improve more.
6. Archie Luxury: Maiden winner last start over 1100m and step straight up to 1400m a surprise. Tough ask.
7. Mr Tickler: Maiden winner before being well beaten in much easier grade last start at Moonee Valley. Has to improve lengths.
8. Bunena Veloz: 1300m Maiden winner at Ararat last start in okay enough type. Has some ability but everything to prove today.
9. Toffatin: First run and win at the bool over 1200m last start. Will appreciate the distance increase and looks well in here from the barrier.
10. Green Patina: Average maiden winner at Horsham last start over a lesser distance. Appreciate the firm track today but clearly has to improve.
11. Lebombo Rose: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this. One to take on you would imagine.
Comments: Valliano, Mr Markou, Urban Ruler and Toffatin are the ones that look to contest for the win today. Urban Ruler doesn’t look a great price here and i’d rather take him on with the top two in Mr Markou and Valliano.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Valliano to win. Also back Mr Markou.
Ballarat Race 7
1. Golden Spin: Favourite first up at Moonee Valley and missed the start going back on a soft track that really wasn’t suitable… over the 955m just ran poorly. Up to 1100m looks ideal today and even with 59kg he is the class runner here as a Group class horse. Go forward run well hard to beat.
2. Captain Crackerjak: Ran quite well last start at Kyneton behind a nice type in Labuan Star… huge step up in class today though and has to improve.
3. Secret Agenda: Always proven to be a nice type but the trick for her is a wet track in the soft range. Won’t get that here today and this late in the day won’t be suited by conditions. Will run well but have to take her on.
4. Highland Beat: Two solid runs to start the prep but really found nothing the last three runs is a big concern. His very best is good enough if returns to form.
5. Dam Ready: Never really suited up to 1400m last start but ran home well over the distance. Will bring on a bit of fitness I reckon for today and back to a dry track and back to 1100m I really think this is his chance.
6. Speedeor: Hard to ignore the quality of this Weir colt who won well in a Cranbourne maiden and then backed that up with a VERY good win down the straight at Flemington over 1000m. Closer to home today and looks very well in here.
7. Liberty Song: Nice enough type that hasn’t ever quite found his best at this level in the past. Has to improve but clear place chance.
8. Oak Door: 2nd behind Speedeor first up and then $1.10 favourite at Kyneton last start and didn’t exactly blow them away but was a nice win. 3rd behind Blue tycoon last prep and 5th behind Throssell. Clearly has ability.
9. Layne’s Star: Couldn’t win a maiden yet. Hard to suggest a place.
Comments: I really have to take Secret Agenda on here today. Golden Spin, Speedeor and Dam Ready are the three that standout on my ratings while Highland Beat is also a blowout chance if finds his best.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Speedeor to win. Also back Dam Ready.
Ballarat Race 8 – 2200m – Ballarat Cup
1. Turnitaround: Solid first up run then wide no cover two back at Flemington before turning the form around last start with a solid win at Sandown over 1800m. Step up in class again and gets in with the top weight from another awkward barrier. Should get a sit just off the speed.
2. Lidari: Continues to run really well this prep. Ignore two back run off a slow tempo, this guy wants a tough tempo race and will get it here. Barrier doesn’t help his chances today but he will get the distance no dramas and will be whacking away late. Big chance.
3. Rising Romance: Never well suited last start at Flemington in a race that was slowly run the first 600m and then a strong 1400m race after that. Even so, she finished off okay being held up at critical stages.
4. Taiyoo: Old mate returned to form the past two runs and finally got a win on the board. Didn’t have to beat a great deal last start though and this is a big step up again in class.
5. Puccini: Maps to sit midfield. Ran very well with a huge weight last start in the Horsham Cup 2nd behind a good type in Magic Consol. Last prep G3 2nd behind Real Love over 2200m. Clearly good enough to run well here from a positive barrier.
6. Auvray: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close on any occasion Step up in distance while suitable, will need to find him another few lengths at least today. Weir is a magician though so fair enough… he could do it.
7. Desert Jeuney: Not the worst horse going around in this today and I thought his run two back at Flemington had a lot of merit from out the back in a slowly run front runner dominated race. Horrible barrier so will be getting back and running on.
8. Magnapal: Hasn’t gone close to a win this prep. Last two runs were average at very best. One to take on.
9. Lord van Percy: UK Import. Ran well in 2014 in the Herbert Power and didn’t get a run after that until October this year. Nice enough run in the G3 Eclipse and looks to be coming on strongly heading into this.. Yendall takes the ride looks a key factor.
10. Observational: Really a bit of an unknown over a strong 2200m distance at his older age. Golden Mile winner back in 2015, the Williams stable had a good opinion of him but he hasn’t shown much this prep. Was a big forgive run last start over 1600m at Flemington and while he looks well suited here, I really couldn’t suggest him over this distance range in this class.
11. Lady Le Fay: Should have been suited last start to a strong final 1400m but didn’t really show alot on the day. Previous start was average at best as well. Struggle to suggest at this distance today from the barrier.
12. Manageress: Horrible run last start at Flemington in the G2 Matriarch… just never suited by the tempo of the race. On ability she has to be considered and will get a nice enough run in transit from the barrier.
13. Go Dreaming: Well beaten the past few starts in similar or harder cups. Hard to suggest a placing.
14. Nozomi: Bm-84 win three back at Caulfield and runs since have been solid without blowing us away. Every chance last start 2nd behind Little White Cloud. Step up in class again here and distance… can run well but can’t exactly suggest here for the win.
15. Scherzoso: McEvoy runners continue to perform well in Victoria and this guy has been making his way through the grades to get up to a race like this. Nice enough run 3rd last start behind The Chairman and Cool Chap with 60kg, but meets Cool Chap much better at the weights here. Up in distance works. Win wouldn’t shock and push forward from barrier to get a spot i’d imagine.
16. Pilote D’essai: The type of horse that is consistently too far back and barrier 19 today suggests no difference today. Not convinced either that he is a 2200m strong tempo horse. Back in the sea.
17. Sonntag: An out and out stayer but he was very clearly a poor run last start at Flemington. Hasn’t shown us a lot this prep and while I think he can run okay here, it’s hard to suggest a win from the barrier on everything we know.
18. Cool Chap: Ran poorly last start when made to take a sit instead of go on and lead which for mine was a big mistake. The leaders got a nice enough time out front and the genuine tempo wasn’t set for Cool Chap. Up to this distance suitable and same with the tempo from a very good barrier. Expect him to take a sit today and be well suited.
19. Golden Oldies: Nice ‘Cup’ win two back at St Arnaud beating some average types. Last start in the Ararat Cup won well beating some fairly average types again with a very low weight. Up in weight here and while he is a good type on current form, I’d have to take him on.
20. Something to Share: Average type of horse that is clearly outclassed today. While he will get the distance with no issues, it’s hard to see him placing.
21. Charlevoix: Just have to forget he went around first up and look to previous preps where he destroyed Cool Chap over 2400m in listed grade giving him 1kg. Loves a strong staying test and even from the horrible barrier you have to believe he is well suited to this task today.
22. White Dollar Sign: Ran quite well for 5th in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup beaten 9 lengths. Won’t be winning this but will stay the distance.
Comments: Turnitaround, Lidari, Rising Romance, Puccini, Nozmi, Scherzoso, Cool Chap and Charlevoix all rate well in this race with 2-3 others clear chances outside of these chances. Rising Romance gets her chance here today with a nice tempo expected to be set and she will get a nice spot off the speed. I really think Lidari is doing everything right heading into this today also. In the end I can’t ignore the price on offer for Rising Romance and she gets the tick here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rising Romance E/W
Ascot Race 6 – 1400m – Carbine Club of W.A Stakes
1. Bass Strait: Geez he has been put around at huge odds the last two starts and run VERY well from out the back on both occasions. From barrier 1, I get the feeling they will try and hunt out to get a little closer to the speed back in class here. Went very well 2nd to Scales of Justice and beat some very good types who are in this race today on that occasion. With the right ride and run he is winning this.
2. Zarantz: First up run well beaten over 1400m in WFA-G2 class. Back in class here obviously but best runs in the past have been at 2000m plus and it’s hard to suggest the improvement needed to beat the best of them here. Can run well though.
3. Chocolate Holic: Won 6 from 9 but really hitting the top level the past few starts. Step back to 1400m looks ideal as the horse didn’t look as well suited over 1800m. Is a steep step back to 1400m though and does have to improve from an awkward barrier.
4. Stocks: Fairly beaten on both his last starts by horses in this race. Looks a minor player.
5. Great Shot: Looked a very good 3YO and while he hasn’t won in four starts this prep, he has continued to run quite well. Fairly beaten last start by Bass Strait when not able to lead. Should get the lead today but clearly has to prove himself at the top level.
6. Showy Chloe: Maps to get midfield from the barrier. Good run two back before a fail last start behind Bass Strait and Scales of Justice. Will be wanting a medium tempo to be able to finish off strongly.
7. Testamezzo: Fairly beaten both starts this prep in similar company around form lines that are better represented here. Have to take on here today.
8. Vengabus: Will be pushing forward like last start and there is every chance he sets up a strong staying test pushing Great Shot out of his comfort zone and we hope that happens. Hard to see a win here.
9. Coming Back: Two solid wins to start the prep but fairly beaten by a very good type last start. Has to improve.
10. Universal Law: Looked a good horse last prep and while he has run well all three runs this prep he has found a few too good each time. Another step up in class and poor barrier.
11. Special Delivery: A long time between runs before a 0.1L 2nd to Django at York. Pike keeps the ride. Obviously a key player based on 3.5L 8th last year in Group 1 class over 1600m.
12. Kensington Abbey: Good win heading into this race today, but she clearly needs to find lengths to measure up to this level at the weights.
Comments: Bass Strait is the class runner in this race based on form and if they go a map speed out the front he will be the one rattling home eating up group and loving it. Huge price on offer and i’m happy to bet this.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bass Strait – 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Ascot Race 7 – 1600m – Sky Racing W.A Guineas
1. Saul’s Special: Done everything right heading into this race today. As a 2YO was only a little bit off Whispering Brook on two occasions. Three runs this prep and finally got a win over 1400m last start. Up in grade again but is up for the challenge. Barrier the issue.
2. The Celt: Fairly beaten both runs this prep coming off a very good 2YO campaign. Looks really hard to suggest even though he was wide throughout last start ridden upside down. Horror barrier.
3. Minus Looks: 3Y-SWP winner first up this prep. Fiarly beaten the last two starts but was ridden upside down last start. Won’t be leading today i’d imagine.
4. Wrinkly: Three runs this prep and failed to place on any occasion. Clearly has to improve to go close.
5. Get Over It: Nice run 0.8L 4th heading into this behind Saul’s Special. Will get a nice run in transit from barrier 2 with Pike onboard but clearly has to improve again.
6. Lusaha: Ran on nicely over the 1400m from on speed. Will probably contest Whispering Brook for the lead today but i’m not convinced he has the speed to hold her out.. also Williams isn’t exactly a front riding jockey? Up to 1600m will need to improve to win.
7. Jazari: Well outclassed here and one we just have to take on based on last two runs.
8. One Short: Nice enough runs leading into last start but was fairly plain on that occasion. Hard to suggest.
9. Variation: Nice enough win over 1600m heading into this today at Ascot in much easier grade. Should measure up quite well and from a good barrier looks one to consider.
10. Humanity: Lightly raced type. Close 2nd behind Sauls Special last start. Previous run was a good win over 1600m. Can take a sit just off them and go for it strongly late.
11. Geiger Gem: Comes into this with a 4 length win at course over 1500m infront of some average types. Even so, looks one to consider if he can improve onwards.
12. Final Salute: Poor last start behind quite a few in this and a beaten favourite first up. One to take on, on form.
13. Ragazzo D’oro: Good enough run last start behind Sauls Special heading into this beaten just 1L. Can improve and barrier 7w ill help his case today.
14. Whispering Brook: This is being put down to being an ‘after thought’ by many as a race, but when a horse has had only 4 runs in a prep, i’m happy to give them one last race to show what they have to give. Started a shorter price last start in a Group 1 Fillies and Mares open age race at Flemington and was a very strong run over 1600m in the Caulfield Guineas the run before. Finds herself obviously really well in at the weights being a filly here and is 4 runs for 4 wins at this track.
15. I Am Boudica: Fairly beaten the last two starts from different rides in run. Have to take on again.
16. Ellicazoom: The likely contender to Whispering Brook on form and mapping. Ellicazoom got a gun barrier in 6 today to sit just off the leaders 1 slot off the rail. Will have every possible chance.
Comments: I’m keen on two runners in Whispering Brook and Ellicazoom. Both map to be on speed or just off it today and both should get every chance in running. Both are suited by tempo being on and by the distance and most importantly, both clearly come into this race with the ‘best’ form lines. Happy to back both.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Whispering Brook – 1.5 units @ $6.50. Ellicazoom – 1.6 units @ $5.00.
Ascot Race 8 – 1600m – James Boag’s Premium Railway Stakes
1. Kawi: Never looked suited first up in Australia when worked up in the yard. Will be much better for the run and also the lower maximum temp on offer today. Maps very well today from an inside barrier to get a dream run and the step up to 1600m is ideal. Key player.
2. Disposition: Ran very well second up behind Perfect Reflection but has to improve onwards again today to get the chocolates. Horrible barrier will mean Smith has to give him a gem of a ride.
3. Pornichet: Shouldn’t be racing.
4. He or She: Comes into this today with some very solid form lines. Ignore last start when never suited on a slow track IMO. 6 lengths off Winx over 2000m two runs back ain’t terrible. In all honestly though the 1800m 2nd to Black Heart Bart three runs back is the testing material that has him in here. Barrier is the only big issue.
5. Good Project: Hasn’t won since winning this last year. First two runs this prep were below average, but last start at Flemington behind Le Romain was the perfect lead in. Big chance.
6. Perfect Reflection: Strong return to form last start in WFA-G2 over the 1400m and will appreciate the step up to 1600m today also. Great position in running from the 2 today and will get every possible chance.
7. Mackintosh: Oozing Group form, Mackintosh was 0.3L off a Group 1 win two back and then last start ran very well behind Le Romain beating home Good Project on the day. Will be going forward from the wide barrier and appreciates a strong tough task.
8. Lite’n in My Veins: Group 3 winner, this is a big step up in class and he has to find a length on two on his best to win this.
9. Rageese: A bit of a throw at the stumps after a very good 1400m win beating Arod last start in a very strongly run fast time race at Flemington. Expect the speed to be on today and he will be coming home strongly late. Awkward barrier.
10. Balmont Girl: Fairly beaten both runs this prep. Hard to see the improvement needed to even place on previous form.
11. Heart Starter: Been going very well this prep before getting too far back last start and running 4th to Scales of Justice. Meets Scales of Justice significantly better at the weights. A minor player for the win.
12. Ideal Image: Fairly beaten all four runs this prep but has tested a few decent types along the way. Has to find more here to even place.
13. Neverland: Has a booming finish on her that may be suited to this race with the low weight. Was very poor last start and fairly beaten the last two by Scales of Justice and Heart Starter.
14. Scales of Justice: Very nice type that has always been well placed in races never missing a place along the way. Group 3 winner last start from just off the speed and from the barrier maps on speed again. Testing material today for this quality gelding.
15. Tick Tick Bloom: Was actually a pretty good run first up behind Heart Starter. On previous form have to believe she wants further than this, but she can run well here and was only 1.5L off He or She over 1500m in previous preps.
16. Tradesman: Ran a blinder last start behind Perfect Reflection and beat Scales of Justice the run prior. Well in at the weights and maps well. Key player.
17. Zarantz: Hard to see him measuring up on the first up run. Previous preps was around the mark though.
18. Great Shot: Shouldn’t sneak into the field but even if he does this is beyond him.
19. Showy Chloe: Not winning this.
Comments: One of the most open Group1 races you will ever see with Kawi, Disposition, He or She, Good Project, Perfect Reflection, Mackintosh, Rageese, Heart Starter, Scales of Justice, Tick Tick Bloom and Transmena ll winning chances. In the end it comes back to who will get the best runs in the race and I have to side with Mackintosh on top from Kawi. Tick Tick Bloom is the huge blowout chance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Equal size win bets on Mackintosh and Kawi. Small bet Tick Tick Bloom.
