The 2016 Royal Ascot Carnival Day 5 is upon us. We enter the final day of the Carnival with the track continuing to dry out. Just the two standout races that i’m very confident to bet into and hopefully we can end the carnival with a few bangs. As always, I hope you your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Day 1 Results: +6.5 units
Day 2 Results: -8.5 units
Day 3 Results: -4.0 units
Day 4 Results: +1.0 units
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ascot Race 3 – 2400m – Hardwicke Stakes
1. Almodovar: Went to a new level last start with a 6L win over an okay enough field. Ratings suggest this is harder again today but I think he will be up to his neck in this!
2. Astronereus: Group 3 winner last start in a small field. Continues to run well over the distance and likes the conditions today… just not sure he is good enough on previous form to suggest a win without further improvement today.
3. Dartmouth: Solid form heading into this today with two group 3 wins over 2700m. Back to 2400m no issues and a similar track condition also. Respect his ability.
5. Exosphere: Looked a good type heading into his first go at 2400m last start and he did something no one expected, he absolutely destroyed a classy Group 2 field. Looks suited in every way here today and will be hard to hold out. Top rater in race.
6. Highland Reel: The potential blowout chance here. Highland Reel is a Group 1 winner. He comes here today off a run in the UAE and then in Hong Kong where he started single figures against a harder class of horse. The ratings out of the UAE run over 2400m were still good enough to win here, but last start back to 2000m was disappointing. Back to 2400m today and back home… I really think he is huge overs here with his Hong Kong Group 1 win more than good enough a form line to rate on top.
7. Mount Logan: Going ‘okay’ recently with a win last start in Listed Grade, but well beaten previous start by Exosphere. Has to improve to place.
8. Wicklow Brave: Group 3 2nd to Dartmouth last start. Been over the hurdles the previous two runs… before that over 3200m 3rd in Group 2 class… Ratings suggest he needs to improve again to measure up.
9. Beautiful Romance: Consistently putting in solid runs the past four runs. Placed behind Simple Verse last prep in Group 1 class and first up this prep ran well for a Group 2 win. Has to improve still.
10. Simple Verse: Group 1 winner in 3YO and also FM class last prep. Both those races ratings suggest she has to be considered.. but she has been well beaten both starts this prep, including a 4L defeat by Exosphere.
Comments: Very keen to be betting large here. Exosphere and Highland Reel rate on top at their prices and i’m happy to bet to win equal amounts.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Exosphere for 3 units @ $3.10. Highland Reel for 1 unit @ $11.50
Ascot Race 4 – 1200m – Diamond Jubilee Stakes
1. Gold-Fun: Group 2 win and Group 1 second last prep were his best two runs ever. Three runs since have been just plain okay but not up to the rating mark needed to win this. Has to improve especially being a straight course here.
2. Holler: Progressively went through the grades in Australia tested over a few distances. Best run to date was over 1300m and he was mainly sent around corners not down the straight. Best is good enough to run well here but not convinced of a win.
3. Jungle Cat: Did what he was expected to over in the USA with some okay runs but never testing in Group 1 class. Four days back ran just okay for 1.5L 4th behind Profitable. Better suited back to a dryer track but clearly has to find more here.
4. Magical Memory: Continues to progress through the grades. Top weight the last two starts carrying over 60k in Group 3 and Group 2 class getting the money in both. Beaten last prep by Twilight Son twice over 1200m. First time at Ascot.
5. Mattmu: Best runs seen were a fair few runs back. Last two starts saw an okay first up run but failed last start. Not convinced he is a group 1 horse just yet.
6. Signs of Blessing: Strong 6 length listed victory two runs back over in France. Last start fairly beaten in Group 3. Best runs over the 1000-1100 distance and not convinced he will produce a run over 1200m that wins this.
7. Suedois: Ran very well last start 2nd to Magical Memory in what was clearly his career best run. Handles all types of ground.
8. The Tin Man: Has been very well backed here today. First up run ratings recorded are sensational, but i’m not sold on the ratings personally. Last prep he showed progressiveness and the ability to handle and love this track which are both bonuses, but he has to prove it all on the big stage today.
9. Twilight Son: Group 1 winner and a good 2nd to Muhaarar last prep… he had to carry 63kg first up and just wasn’t suited when failing to fire behind Magical Memory first up. Forgive for the run and rate on best runs in the past especially at this track. Looks well suited.
10. Undrafted: Group 1 winner at course and distance last year beating Brazen Beau. Three runs since saw two defeats and 1 okay win. Been kept fairly fresh… has to produce another career best here.
Comments: Wide open affair and Twilight Son is the top pick for me here. The best horse in the race proven over the past prep… forgive first up and looks well suited. Magical Memory looks the main danger.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Twilight Son for 2 units @ $5.30
