The 2016 Royal Ascot Carnival Day 4 is upon us. Once again, we get another soft track and have to figure out just how the track will play and which horses will handle it the best. Yesterday we had a few close results but only the one winner in the least confident betting race of the day. We saw Order of St George throw his hat in the ring for a tilt at the Melbourne Cup while we also saw a few smart runners worth following forward. I’m confident that we are back on the right track today though with a very solid card with out biggest betting day of the Carnival so far. As always, I hope you your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Day 1 Results: +6.5 units
Day 2 Results: -8.5 units
Day 3 Results: -4.0 units
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ascot Race 1 – Albany Stakes – 2F-Group 3 – 1200m
1. Bletchley: First up run fairlw well in the end when not very well backed to win. Obviously softer here and very much unknown… also up to 1200m.. ratings suggest needs to improve and should, but just how much?
2. Brave Anna: Last start maiden winner on a soft track when well backed. Decent enough run all things considered and has to be respected.
3. Cheval Blanche: Well backed first up in a much lower grade race than this when scored just in the end. Has to improve signficantly to feature here.
4. Create A Dream: Handy win last start down in the weights in a decently rated race. Ward camp! Dettori takes the ride. Should handle track, distance and on ratings looks a legit chance here.
5. Cuff: Top class formlines heading into this today. Very good ratings in her maiden win on a soft track and improved signficaintly last start to score on a good track over 1200m in listed grade very well. Handy and will continue to improve.
6. Dainty Dandy: 1300m winner at Donny first up in fillies grade. Times were average at best and hard to see the progression back to 1200m today.
7. Grizzel: Two starts two wins. Nicely bred. Step up to 1200m 3rd up looks ideal. Ratings suggest she is going well enough to feature and if improves up to 1200m then is right in this.
8. High On Love: Well beaten first up and then won a low grade grade that didn’t rate well at all. One to take on.
9. Kilmah: Did all that was required to score fairly well in the end first up over 1200m. Ratings suggest there is a big gap between that win and this one and i’m not convinced the improvement will be found today to beat all of these runners.
10. Melesina: Well beaten on each occasion this prep. Take on.
11. Oh Grace: Well back in class last start to score a maiden victory after some ‘okay’ runs including 4th and 6th behind Cuff. hard to see the form turn around.
12. Perfect Madge: Yet to win a race and had chances at both starts. 1.3L off the winner in 2F-LR last start at York, but the race didn’t measure up to be a great time rating so it’s hard to take much more than what we have seen out of it.
13. Queen Kindly: Short priced winner first up in an easy race and killed the small field. Obviously looks handy. Has to improve onwards again today but certainly has ability with the breeding.
14. Romantic View: Two strong runs heading into this. Improved up to 1200m last start toi win… but the ratings suggest it was a fairly similar run to previous start. Would need to improve onwards again.
15. Sea of Snow: Two wins from 3 starts and beaten 2.2L last start in hardest test to date. Has to improve again to measure up.
16. Spin Doctor: Going in the right direction but beaten fairly last start in easier. Step up to 1200m will help hopefully but even then I can’t see anything but a place.
Comments: Two clear top picks on my ratings here while there are 3-4 others with the potential to challenge.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Cuff for 2.25 units @ $3.50. Grizzel for 0.75 units @ $10
Ascot Race 2 – King Edward VII Stakes – Group 2 – 2400m
1. Across The Stars: Ran very well two runs back in Listed grade when did alot wrong and still ran well. Last start was well backed but failed to fire when it mattered. Clearly has top class ability, but has to reproduce a rating that has only been seen once prior on a good track.
2. Beacon Rock: Consistent type. Not the most gifted horse you will ever seen, but did put in a very good rating run to end last prep over 1600m. Three runs this prep have all been solid, especially on soft tracks, but he does have to improve slightly here to continue winning.
3. Carntop: Comes out of the same highly rated race as Across The Stars. The winner went on to be beaten 11L in a Group 1 the next start but still ran 5th. Has ability and will like the distance here.
4. Choreographer: Hasn’t shown us a lot to date to suggest a clear winning hope here.
5. Houseofparliament: Poor run last start 4th behind Beacon Rock. Previous run in similar grade was very good back on a firmer surface. Not suited.
6. Humpgrey Bogart: Beat Carntop and Across The Sars two back at Lingfield. Only run on soft was a close 2nd three runs back. Ratings wise, the past three runs have all been matched and equal… higher than any runner has put on in this race. So, as long as he doesn’t go backwards, a repeat of that rating has him up to his neck in this.. especially with a bit of improvement potential back on the soft.
7. Linguistic: Solid enough runs this prep when winning then defeated the next two starts into second in good grade races. Never run on soft. Up in distance. Has to improve but is one of the contenders.
8. Lustrous Light: Nice enough maiden win last start.. but this is another kettle of fish!
9. Muntahaa: 6L maiden win after being defeated in harder company both previous starts. Needs to improve again here.
Comments: Wide open race across the board. I’m happy to take the horse that has produced consistently high ratings at the near double figure outs. The horse will turn up. The horse should be placing at very least and is every possible chance to win. Will handle the track also which is a known and important factor.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Humphrey Bogart for 1 unit to win 2 units to place @ $9.20/2.92 Each-Way
Ascot Race 3 – Commonwealth Cup – 3YO Group 1 – 1200m
1. Buratino: Well beaten last start behind Quiet Reflection. Best run was as a 2YO when close 2nd in Group 1 over 1200m. Hasn’t shown any sense of that both runs back this prep.
2. Cheikeljack: Heavy track winner last start over in France. It was a nice enough win in easier company than this. Has to take the next step on softer ground and back to 1200m. I can’t see it.
3. Donjuan Triumphant: Ran up to his career peak last start when a nice 2nd behind Quiet Reflection. Well beaten that day, but back to a softer track today you have to believe he is much better suited. Can improve but has to find lengths on Quiet Reflection.
4. Dream Dubai: Well beaten 2nd to Gifted Master in Group 2 two back. Rating that day wasn’t sensational either and Gifted Master hasn’t franked the form since either. Went around short last start and ran poorly. Will produce better here but still not sure he is a winning hope.
5. Kachy: Very nice win two back at Chester. The run rated quite well. Stepped up to open grade Group 2 last start and ran nicely enough behind Profitable who has franked that form well and truly since. Up to 1200m today.. last time they tried to go up it was a fail is the issue… Has the ability to run well.
6. Log Out Island: Huge win last start in listed grade at Newbury running a clear career peak. Only run on slow was a fail… previously run on heavy and wasn’t terrible but didn’t win either.
8. Washington DC: Four runs this prep and best run was two back at Navan in listed grade when winning well. Well beaten last start by Only Mine. Shown ability in the past but not enough for me to suggest a clear victory here.
9. Waterloo Bridge: One to clearly take on based on runs in this prep.
10. Illuminate: Huge run for 2nd last prep over 1200m in Group 1 grade. Group 2 winner prior. Found nothing first up over the 1600m. Best ratings put her close if she improves on them again.
11. La Rioja: Loves it wet and will be well suited by the track today. Have to just ignore last start for mine when on a Good track well beaten by Quiet Reflection running well below best ratings. Can improve here and test the field.
12. Quiet Reflection: Clear top rater in this race by a country mile. Won 5 of 6 runs. Loves it wet and loves it dry on previous runs. The only query has to be the best runs being produced in the past on Good tracks and this is far from good today. The first up run on heavy was good enough though to suggest the improvement is more than enough to be rated on top here.
Comments: Quiet Reflection is the CLEAR top rater here. Very keen to be playing at the price.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Quiet Reflection for 5 units @ $2.80
Ascot Race 4 – Coronation Stakes – 3F Group 1 – 1600m
1. Alice Springs: Consistent sort of horse with a clear level of ability that sits below winning in a Group 1. Expect a good run and can place, but won’t be beating the full field home today.
2. Ashadihan: Progressive type. Very strong win first up when unfancied. Handy as a 2YO as well when 2nd in Group 3 class… Looks likely to flurish up to 1600m. Unknown on the ground.
3. Besharah: Very average first up as favourite when should have put that field away. Group 1 run last start respectable for 4th. Previous prep ran a close 3rd in Group 1 and won well in Group 2 class. Most importantly, won at course on soft by 3 lengths. Ratings suggest she goes well, but has to reach another career peak today on the soft.
4. Czabo: Surprise winner last start over in France on a soft track over 1600m. Previous two runs well beaten over 1600m in harder company. Has to improve.
5. Fireglow: Not disgraced last start at York when second, but was well beaten on the day. previous start also well beaten 4th behind Minding in Group 1 class. Best runs not good enough to take the prize here.
6. Jet Setting: Huge win last start beating a form horse in Minding. Equal rating last start as her three back win by 3 lengths in Group 3 class on Heavy. This tells me she goes well on any surface which is a big positive here. Maps well from barrier 4 also which is important. Clearly a top chance.
7. Marenko: Only run on soft in the past was a close 2nd in France in Group 3 class. Comes into this off a Group 3 win in much easier class. Best runs have been good in the past but clearly has to improve to measure up to this grade.
8. Nathra: Group 3 winner. Last start ran very well for a 2nd in Group 1 class behind La Cressonniere in France. Only run on soft was a win in easier grade early days in her career. Expect a solid run.
9. Nemoralia: 6 length demolition job last start at York and further improvement is expected today. Won on soft in the past and ran some top ratings on it also as a 2YO. Looks over the odds today.
10. Now or Never: Best run was first up this prep when 2nd to Jet Setting by 3 lengths on Heavy. Won a lower class Group 3 next start on Good and was beaten 10 lengths last start by Jet Setting in Group 1 class.
11. Promising Run: Generally runs up to her name putting in good runs but not winning. First up over 2100m ran a career peak, so it’s puzzling to see her pushed back to 1600m today. Clearly has ability but i’m struggling to suggest it on a soft track.
12. Qemah: Produced two solid runs to start the prep a Group 3 win and Group 1 placing. Handles soft tracks which is important. Respect.
13. Tanaza: Well outclassed here on previous rating runs and most importantly the last start run. Take on.
Comments: Hard to see anything winning outside Jet Setting and Nemoralia based on previous runs and ratings. It will take a super effort for them both to be beaten here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Jet Setting for 1.3 units @ $3.75. Nemoralia for 0.7 units @ $7.00
