The 2016 Royal Ascot Carnival Day 3 is upon us. Once again, we get another soft track and have to figure out just how the track will play and which horses will handle it the best. Yesterday we saw the highest rated horse run last as the $1.70 favourite. As a result, it was a total wipe out for us betting wise taking us into negative territory for the carnival. I’m confident that we are back on the right track today though with a very solid card and some nice odds on offer if we are right in a few of the races. As always, I hope you your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Day 1 Results: +6.5 units
Day 2 Results: -8.5 units
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Royal Ascot Race 1 – Norfolk Stakes – Group 2 – 11.30pm
1. Big Time Baby: A fair enough win first run in… and will improve from the run… but has to find lengths on last start to measure up here.
2. Global Applause: Gone through the grades well this prep and scored a very nice listed grade win last start over Mehmas who came out and ran a very valid second behind Caravaggio on day 1. Should have no issues with the ground. Rates to win.
3. Legendary Lunch: Proved to handle the wetter surfaces. Three solid runs with two wins along the way. Last start rated well, but certainly had the horse showing his best on the day for mine. Based on that run, he has to find a bit more here.
4. Nuclear Power: Hasn’t placed. Hard to suggest.
5. Peace Envoy: Very solid runs leading into this. Two back run over the 1000m was solid behind King Electric on the day… it was a soft track that day and the run rated well enough to be in the finish here. 1200m back to 1000m today.
6. Plata O Plomo: Untapped potential. Won with ease first up at long odds in a very average race. Has to find a few more lengths today but 2nd up I would suspect he has a bit to still come.
7. Prince of Cool: Another runner here today that won with relative ease first up and will improve for the run. Hasn’t recorded the ratings required to win here, but a win wouldn’t be a total shock.
8. Prince of Lir: Nice win first up in easier class. Looks a key rival to the favourites based on the first up run.
9. Silver Line: Very impressive win first up by close to 4 lengths. Will eat up the ground here and looks very well in. Ratings suggest a small improvement has him fighting for the win.
10. The Last Lion: Solid enough ratings heading into this off three runs. Handles Ascot but did run a $1.50 favourite when found two others too good. Best seen on a dead track in the past.
11. Red Lodge: Another American… Ward’s second 2YO to go around. This one doesn’t have as much hype around her, but she still proved to be a very nice type with a big 2YO win by 4 lengths over the 1000m.
Comments: My ratings really have this down to four runners in Global Applause, Peace Envoy, Silver Line and Red Lodge. Overall, the ratings point towards a win from either Global Applause or Silver Line more than 60% of the time here and that’s how we are going to play this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Global Applause for 2 units @ $3.55. Silver Line for 1.5 units @ $5.00
Royal Ascot Race 2 – Tercentenary Stakes – 3Y-Group 3 – 12.05am
1. Blue De Vega: Last prep ended with a strong 3.6L win as favourite in a Group 3. It was a very good win and commands a lot of respect here. Since that day though, he has had two runs since and been well enough beaten both runs. Needs to reproduce last preps best run and go beyond that to measure up here.
2. Abdon: First up run this prep was very good when 2nd behind Hawkbill. Was no disgrace and could easily turn the tables today on improvement to come. Find it hard to back him though.
3. Hawkbill: Career peak run first up when beat a very strong field in Listed grade at big odds. Only needs to find a length today to be competitive.
4. Long Island Sound: Three runs for three wins going through the grades. Steps up to 2000m today and has to improve on last three starts to measure up to this grade. Done everything right so far so a win wouldn’t shock.
5. Mulk: Been running in easier grades that this. Big step up. Untapped potential but hard to suggest against this lot on what i’ve seen to date.
6. Prize Money: Comes into this race today out of two very high rating races where he was beaten to the post both times by another horse. Step back to 2000m… rock hard fit… last two runs ratings are above that produced by any other runner here. Hard to beat.
7. Race Day: Expected to progress onwards ratings wise and win last start, but instead, stayed around the same park as the Lingifeld won. Best ratings were shown last prep and are still not good enough to produce a win here.
8. Royal Artillery: Good ratings win at Donny last prep. Started favourite first up at Sandown this prep but failed to fire. Step up to 2000m questionable. Has decent ratings but I couldn’t be on.
9. Steel of Madrid: Very handy type. Won a 3YO-LR heading into this coming off a nice 2nd to Shaiyem at Haydock. Beatne by Hawkbill on soft last prep is hard to ignore… but did eat up the 2000m last start. Has the ability.
Comments: Another race where two standout on my ratings. Prize Money is the key runner here. They are betting a massive $8s maximum amongst the bookies and I have to play here. For the records, $7 is the 2nd best at bookies so that’s the price i’ll record. Hawkbill is the other progressive runner I like… showed good times first up and will have no issues with the track conditions.. looks suited.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Prize Money 0.5 units @ $7.00. Hawkbill 0.5 units @ $6.00
Royal Ascot Race 3 – Ribblesdale Stakes – 3F-Group 2 – 12.40am
1. Ajman Princess: Comes into this today a maiden after solid results in MUCH easier races for 2nds. Hard to see the improvement.
2. Architecture: Strong ratings recorded coming into this race today. Two back run would have her competitive here on ratings… but last start was obviously the form race you rate her on when 2nd to Minding in 3F-GP1 class. Back in class class and well in here on a track that should suit.
3. Beauly: Gone through the grades but failed to get a win heading here. Last start di da little bit wrong but not enough to suggest the improvement required to pass a few top class runners here.
4. Capricious Cantor: Well beaten in 3F-LR grade last start. Ratings out of the previous run were ‘okay’ at best. Hard to see.
5. Chicadoro: Hung out last start when 3.1L 2nd to Swiss Range, producing her best run to date. I think the last start run was slightly over rated considering the competition. I think she is a nice type, but not in this race for mine.
6. Dessertoflife: Last prep landed a Group 3 race. Rating out of that race was average at best though and her two runs to date this prep haven’t produced anything of substance.
7. Even Song: Beaten home by Chicadoro last start at Newbury when 3rd to Swiss Range – was well backe that day. Shown to have potential on whats to date but the price is well unders for mine.
8. Olala: The French hope. Handles all surface conditions apart from very firm which is important to know with the soft track. Good enough win first up this prep only beating two others home in 3YO grade and then was no disgrace 2nd to The Juliet Rose in 3Y0-LR. Ratings were solid but does need to improve today to be placing and winning.
9. Queen’s Trust: Won her first race in good fashion last prep before failing in a Group 3 to end the prep. First up run a few things went wrong but overall was a solid hitout over the 2000m. Up to 2400m does look like it should suit.. has potential to burn here… but alot of unknowns!
10. Rocaverde: Average run first up winning much easier. Can only beaten what’s put infront of you but even I struggle to suggest the improvement needed here.
11. Shall We: Another runner being thrown in the deep end. Yes, she won well last start, but it was a very easy race. Have to take on.
12. Sovreign Parade: Struggle to suggest why she deserves to be considered here based on only run to date. Must improve a solid 5 lengths.
13. The Black Princess: This is a horse that oozes class. Good 1600m win first prep. Come back this prep and lost both races, but both were good runs. Probably find one or two too good again here, but I can see her winning something decent in the next month or two as she continues to learn and progress.
14. We Are Ninety: Won 3 of 4 including a strong 3F-lR last start. Has to go on with it again today up to the 2400m and on an unknown surface the real issues.
Comments: More than happy to ride the Group 1 class form of Architecture back to this grade today. She has shown the ability and will handle the track.. it’s all about the ride now and Dettori is running like one of the best currently.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Architecture for 2 units @ $4.4
Royal Ascot Race 4 – Gold Cup – Group 1 – 1:20am
1. Clever Cookie: Comes into this race today 4th up. His best rating run in the past was more than a year ago over 2800m. Questionable step up to this distance and i’m not convinced he will find a run good enough to win this.
2. Curbyourenthusiasm: Showed big improvement last start with a very nice run 2nd to Clever Cookie over the 2800m distance. Previous runs to date ratings wise I wouldn’t have even considered him a place chance. Only issue for mine is his best has been seen on firmer tracks.
3. Flying Officer: Well backed runner. Won 3 in a row last prep and ran nicely enough first up at course over 3200m a close 3rd behind Mizzou. That race rated highly giving him the second highest rating run heading into this race. Last prep he took care of Clever Cookie. Never seen over distance but does look the type to get it. 2 runs on soft for 2 wins also.
4. Fun Mac: Consistently finds himself fighting for places in Listed to Group grades. Best runs are well short of what is needed to win a classy race like this.. but it’s hard not to suggest he will run a bold race based on previous appearances.
5. Griraz: Horrible low ratings. 2600 up to 4000m…. Would need a miracle to get this.
6. Max Dynamite: Melbourne Cup 2nd placed Max. Had 6 months off between runs and came back well below his two previous runs ratings. Looks the type that will get the distance, but i’m really concerned with what he showed first up when getting 2kg from Pallasator, but was beaten a long way in the end.
7. Mille Et Mille: Horrible run first up. Group 1 winner over 4000m three runs back which has to be considered. Wasn’t the highest rated Group 1 race you will ever see though… he has to produce his best to be in the finish here… will appreciate the distance and nearly 2 months between runs to find improvement.
8. Mizzou: Consistent as the day is long. Well trained horse that produces ratings that have him there or there abouts in races, but never a rating that suggests he can blow this race away. Only run over 4000m was a 3.7L 7th to Trip To Paris. Others preferred for mine.
9. Pallasator: Comes into this race today after recording a huge victory in Group class. That day he recorded his highest rating with the ability to produce something better going forward. He is a giant of a horse and don’t be put off with his troublesome nature prior to racing, he still always puts it together even with those issues. Most importantly, his lead in run is the highest rated run of any runners last start. Will get the 4000m no dramas. Huge overs odds wise.
10. Scotland: Questionable form lines heading into this today. Only one run over 4000m in G1 class well beaten behind Trip to Paris. Not for mine.
11. Sheikhzayedroad: Feels like this bloke has been around for years. Produced one of his career best runs two back to win over 2800m before failing next start. Throw in the dark pushed out to 2400m today for mine. Hard to see it.
12. Suegioo: Was a nice enough run 2nd behind Pallasator last start over the 3300m. Finds himself poorly rated here against Pallasator and up in class again. Really struggle to suggest a win.
13. Burmese: Two back run was his best career run to date… and it was still a few lengths short of a victory. Can’t see a win here.
14. Order of St George: Brained a field of average horses first up over 2800m as a lead in to this today. Will appreciate the ground today… the big question is whether he will see out a strong 4000m… a big unknown for a horse going around at $1.90. My gut says he will on everything we have seen to date, but i’ve said that about horses going from 2000 to 2400m as well and had them disappoint. His highest rating run last prep is good enough to put this field away, while his 2nd best has him hitting the line with 1-2 others. I don’t think he should be this short a price.
15. The Twisler: Well outclassed here on ratings and runs to date. Take on.
16. Tiberian: 2400m up to 4000m. Best runs have been well below the ratings needed to win something like this. Even his 3000m races were not good enough rated to suggest here.
17. Wasir: Big improvement last start winning in Group 3 company. Even so, this is a step beyond him. Does get the 4000m.
18. Kicky Blue: Best run in the past was over 4000m in Group 1 class when 2nd to Mille Et Mille. It wasn’t the classiest Group 1 race ever, but it has her in the mix today if she can repeat and go beyond that run today.
Comments: I wouldn’t want to try talk you out of taking Order of St George at the shorts, but for mine, the horse should be closer to a $2.30 shot today on all of the factors and even then I would need around $2.50 to bet here on the horse. Max Dynamite is also well under the odds at the $9.6 on offer. The two standouts in the betting are Pallasator and Flying Officer.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Pallasator for 0.5 units @ $22. Flying Officer for 0.5 units @ $12.50.
