Flemington Race 9
Miss Rose De Lago: Strong win at Caulfield first up to win in this class over 1200m. Back in class last start to BM-90 at MV and ran well but couldn’t get the win taking a sit midfield instead of being out the front. 60kg today so need to find her best to win this, but certainly has the ability over this distance.
Sino Eagle: Best run this prep was first up and since then has gone backwards. Didn’t exactly rate well first up that win either. Happy to take her on back in this class off the 60kg.
Mamwaazel: Ran only fairly firs tup in BM-85 grade but then ran well enough 1.8L 6th in FM-GP3 grade. Was horrible last start though when fell out of it very quickly at Scone. Hard one to catch and took a few runs in last prep to find her best. Tough from barrier.
Nautical: Unlucky not to get a run last start at MV and looks well rated today to go close. Gets 0.5kg on Miss Rose De Lago for 0.3L defeat two back at Caulfield and will certainly be suited by step up to 1400m and back to Flemington today. Last win course and distance and grade.
Whistle Baby: Continues to run well after two wins in a row, came home late from the back at MV but was really no chance. Back to Flemington ideal but does need to improve to win in this grade today.
Jessy Belle: Found absolutely nothing last start at MV when 4.5L 7th. Rates there or there abouts but i couldn’t trust her today at all.
Pathways: Well beaten last start over the 1000m so step up to 1400m.. but looks reactionary. Ran nicely enough two back at MV when 2nd… has to improve at weights though big time.
Judical Rock: Will be out the front and running on late like the last two starts but seems to just get found out in the final 100m. Expect again today.
Iteration: First up french runner. Best runs in past over 1800m-2400m on Good surfaces. 1400m first up today in this grade… It’s hard to discount the horse but first up for new stable after 8 months off as well… i think you just have to take the horse on.
La Passe: Very nice win last start at Flemington making up for the defeat at Cranbourne previous to that. Up to 1400m and will be far back in the run, will have to produce an even higher rating run than last start to beat these.
Forgeress: Looked to have every chance last start but fairly beaten by La Passe. Does get 2kg on the horse today though which makes things interesting if either of them can measure up from the back here today.
Oh So Assertive: Just ignore the fact she went around the previous three starts, she is clearly a good track only horse over a 1400m+ distance to find her best. Obviously a tough task today at the weights, but based on the last win at Bendigo four runs back, the ratings at the weights have her in this at big odds and I think from barrier 2 you will see her on speed or with a sit and a big chance.
Moulin: Five runs this prep in Bm-64/Bm-70 grades and hasn’t got within 3.8L of a win. No chance today.
Nippinski: R-58 winner two back then failed ot place last start in R-58… shouldn’t be allowed to race here today.
Comments: Looks an open race to finish the day. At the weights and ratings I have Nautical as the clear top pick in the race while Oh So Assertive is the clear overs in the race based on market prices.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Nautical to win. Smaller bet Oh So Assertive.
