Flemington Race 9
Crafty Cruiser: Huge win last start at course and similar distance. Up to 60kg today looks a bit tough for this bloke. Would be great to see him take out the big money so Bryce can afford another sandwich! Will be ridden for luck from barrier 1 and get a charmed run. Wants the speed on.
Black Jag: Led, won two back at Flemington. Weighted very well today. Last start was no chance not getting the speed.. they still ran it very fast and he stuck on okay enough. On paper on of two clear leaders.
Cooldini: Well backed late and just missed last start. Down 1kg today while Crafty is up 3kg for 0.1L… but big query is how Cooly will handle a wet track and if the horse is really back to being a winner.
Cadillac Mountain: Down 1kg today.. ran nicely enough but just missed also last start. Goes well on wet track is a big key… barrier 4 today will get a very charmed run and be hitting the line hard.
Westsouthwest: Last two runs on wet track have been very good for 0.1L and 1L defeats. Barrier hurts his chances in where he gets in the run and most likely further back than wanted, but has the ability to measure up if good enough.
Ava’s Delight: Got a win two back and that will be it for a year or two… Yes she is going well but she jumps poorly and goes out the back. Hard to back a horse with this racing style.
Gosh: Waller runner.. sent down from Sydney… Had four runs there and failed every run on every surface… was a WFA-G3 4th over in France in 2014… best on good ground.
De Little Engine: Never measured up on wet tracks in the past… last four runs had every chance and was false favourite last start. Take him on again today.
Stable Star: He has been crying out for a wetter track and it looks like he gets the opportunity today. Not very well weighted today unfortunately up 2kg from last start but will get a charmed run just off the leaders and have last crack – the price you pay for no apprentice… but couldn’t claim here anyway. The wetter the better for the horse… really keen at the price.
Prizum: Good run last start for this bloke who hasn’t won since 2012!!! Don’t see that changing at the weights today either.
Doctor Care: The Dr got the win last start over in Adelaide… much harder class this and unknown distance… should get it but harder race can’t have at weights at all.
Red Fella: God the win over in Adelaide last start over distance and three back at Mornington… but well beaten two back at Flemington. Struggle to sugggest in this.
The Donch: Won a poorly rated race last start at Mornington compared to this one today. Have to take him on.
Timikar: Failed to measure up last two starts in much harder company. Needs it very very wet.
Comments: I’m going out on a limb with my gut and my knowledge on this last race today with Stable Star. The horse showed it’s true talent three and four back with very strong wins on wetter tracks… no disgrace last two runs either at course and distance on dry tracks… even if we get a Soft 5 at best, that will be the extra difference and today the horse should get a sit just off the leaders instead of doing it the tough way… price to be looks way overs!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9
Strategy: Stable Star E/W
