Flemington Race 9
Bagman: Huge run last start at course and distance when 2nd in a race where the winner was just off the pace. Smaller field today so won’t get so far back and will have conditions to suit. Looks well rated today and will have ever chance.
Crafty Cruiser: Never won at this distance is a big query for old Crafty. Very disappointing effort last start also it has to be said coming off a win. Rare to see him come back in distance and win so i have to take him on today.
Venture On: Too far back last start from the poor barrier compared to previous two starts. Huge questions over if the horse is wanting 2000m as well today for mine is the massive issue we have to consider for this class.
Freshwater Storm: Never placed at crack certainly a concern for this bloke who reserves his best runs for Caulfield and has gone around short priced here in the past failing. Best runs have been over shorter distances also for mine… did produce a very nice run last start on the soft track and conditions will suit today again.
Secessio: Blinkers on last start and went around a massive price on preferred softer ground for a very good 2nd. Those expecting the $200+ on offer last start will be fairly disappointed with $20s then. Goes well at this distance and return to form hard to argue with.
Trade Commissioner: Shown very little to suggest he can win this today the last four runs compared to others in the race. Did his best over 1400m at start of prep and 4th to Landlocked was still a step behind this also for mine. Never placed on a wet track.
Lightenuff: Expected leader today… been a long time between drinks for this bloke… this is obviously his distance and likes a soft track, but shown nothing too date this prep.
Diamonds At Noon: Questionable if this horse should be racing in city grade at the top level still. Did run 2nd to Lightenuff three preps back but all runs around that have been open class country grade.
Clemo: Missed the start, out the back and ridden with a bit of luck brilliantly to score an impressive win last start over the 1600m. Will he get the 2000m? Not sure.. but based on last start you would believe so. Will he get a wet track? No idea based on never meeting a wet track. Will he measure up? This is his hardest test to date. Quite a few questions to be answered today at the price.
Shikarpour: Never got a run last start at Flemington and was a very good eye-catching run all things considered. Most importantly today he gets a soft track and will have the opportunity to show what he can do.
Black Tomahawk: Every chance last two starts at the distance in similar company.. did get a win three back in easier company but jury is certainly out in this class.
Cuban Fighter: Maiden only winner from 15 starts. Not sure what else i can say… did run 2nd 3.3L to Authoritarian on a soft track three back over 2800m… clearly wanting it wet wet wet and distance.
Comments: The rage is all around Clemo today, but there are more questions that need to be answered for the run today than any previous race the horse has been in. It’s rare that they make this grade jump up in class on a surface they have never contested and for that reason i’ll take the horse on today. Bagman is the clear standout… he doesn’t win out of turn, but he will have every chance today based on mapping and surface condition.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Bagman to win.
