1. Moment of Change: Horrible run first up from an ideal spot in running he found absolutely nothing. Massive worry that he just won’t find his way back to his very best. Never won at Flemington.
2. Hot Snitzel: Ran decently first up at Randwick 1L off Rebel Dane which is good form but never really winning. Last start ran dead last behind Rebel Dane and Terravista at WFA-G2 level. Back in class here…. 3 runs and 0 places at this track a big issue.
3. Dothraki: Always looked a good horse and he may have finally gone to the next level this prep based on the win first up in hot time from just off the leaders with 59kg. Beat a nice bunch of horses and can improve today and find that extra half length to full length to measure up. 1 run 1 win at track.
4. Generalife: First up run was rather disappointing all things considered based on his last two preps runs. Will need to have improved significantly to win at the 1200m at a track he has run at 3 times for just 1 placing (over further).
5. Under The Louvre: Consistently running well. Placed 13 of his last 14 runs and was a massive run second up this prep from the back to just miss the win. Barrier 2 is a bit of an awkward barrier to get a solid position in running, but I’d expect them to go out the back and get the horse into a better position. Clearly has the ability to win and probably should have had a group 1 two runs back. DIstance no issue.
6. Delectation: The best of the ‘others’ last start at course and distance when they trapped Chautauqua in down the straight. First up run was very poor but made up for it last start. 3 runs at track and two have been very good down the straight.
7. Fontelina: Surprised last start at Randwick in lesser class by running quite well over the 1100m considering he showed very little last prep. D Oliver takes the ride which would give you a bit of confidence. Won twice at course.
8. Knoydart: Finished in line with Delectation last start at course and distance. Maps to get a nice run from the barrier in a good spot, shouldn’t find too much trouble and clearly handles the straight well. Good 2nd up ratings on paper.
9. Eclair Choice: Massive improvement last start to win a photo finish group 2 with Lumosty at Caulfield over the 1000m. Goes well over the 1200m according to past runnings, but last start was clearly a peak performance after a month off. A repeat of those ratings would go close.
10. Churchill Dancer: Never runs badly. Had a few beat him last start though at course and distance and finds himself down 2kg today while the others are only 0.5kg and 1kg down. Much better weighted today against them but giving Under The Louvre 1kg for 0.2L defeat two back. There or there abouts.
12. Bring Me The Maid: Her best form is on the very wet tracks. Thought her run last start at Cualfield was good, but this is much harder. Has won here previously.
13. Countryman: One to take on based on form.
14. Kaepernick: Good win two back at Moonee Valley and then up in grade last start found a few too good at Caulfield. Two clear standouts for mine on the form lines in Dothraki and Under The Louvre. The consistency in the form lines of Under The Louvre has me very happy to be on at the prices on a win and place model.
Comments: Consistency is key in these types of races. At the relative weights on form
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Under The Louvre 3 units to place 2 units to win.
