Flemington Race 8
Mr Utopia: Huge run last start at course and distance when 0.5L 2nd to Yesterday’s Song who was also a massive run ridden for luck. Looks more than enough speed in the race today. Rates to win.
Lord of Brazil: Hasn’t won since Jan 2013. First up found nothing. Hard to consider.
Amovatio: Continues to run well up north. Three runs this prep though and hasn’t got closer than 1.8L off a win. Oliver onboard today but not sure that can turn a horse into a winner from where he will be in the run, he will need to out sprint Mr Utopia which will be a hard task.
Decircles: Old mate shown nothing all prep and can’t back him today on what i’ve seen. Take him on.
Venture On: Ran well enough at Flemington then only fairly at MV then went BANG at Bendigo by nearly 4 lengths in open clas.. this is certainly harder today but down 2kg for good measure. That last start win was on a Soft track though so will the Good track today bring him back to them? Most probably.
Correggio: Very hard horse to catch. Clearly on previous preps his best runs have been over further, but did run well first up last prep over 1400m when 2nd to Eximius. First up this prep though was very poor.
Pin Your Hopes: Hard to suggest a win or even place today based on last two runs. Happy to avoid him today.
Le Remas: Missed the start the last two races which is a concern and never exactly in the race. Dryer track, up to 1400m and Flemington… one last throw at the stumps on him today in the Quad then we never take him again if he shows nothing.
Clanga’s Glory: Shown nothing this prep. take on.
Stratigraphy: Can’t jump with them lately. Out the back first up at big odds still ran nicely down the straight. Much better distance today.. has to be considered a ‘chance’ but hasn’t won in nearly a year (over 10 runs) and never in this class.
Academy Jack: Can’t say anything bad really about last start run. Was fair but was also fairly beaten on the day. If they crawl for whatever reason out front he is the one beat, but i doubt that occurs on mapping. Place chance i don’t think he wins on last start ratings.
Castlzeberg: Interesting horse. 3Y-Gp1 2nd in NZ and 3Y-Gp2 winner… 1600m 6L winner of his maiden on a good track… hasn’t been seen since 2013 but with Weir stable and if anyone can get them going… you know who! Bold first up placement considering the races he could have gone to with this horse at ratings.
Sir Andrew: Two runs in Australia and out the back for both of them which is where he won his NZ 3Y-GP2 from.. but he can sit closer to the speed which was proven last run over there. Has ability and is a key chance today.
Bon Rocket: Got the win over an average punch last start. Hard to see measuring up to this grade today on last two runs, has to take the extra step to place.
Comments: Sir Andrew looks very short here today with Craig Williams onboard. Mr Utopia rates on top.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 11, 16, 17
Strategy: Mr Utopia to win
