1. Pasadena Girl: Continues to run well this prep without going close to a win. Has been set for one race this prep and this is it by all accounts. Stable have a huge opinion of her. Will be off the speed coming on late. Will need the bias to be playing better than yesterday. Won a Group 1 on a soft track at 2.
2. Jameka: Top class form this prep. 3rd in the Guineas prelude, 2nd in the Guineas, 1st last start beating a good field at Moonee Valley – just keeps on improving and looks as though she will handle the step up in distance with no issue. Only issue is no wet track form – horses bred by sire have a higher wet strike rate than dry.
3. Sacred Eye: Continues to run well and never far off a win if beaten. Don’t Doubt Mamma won yesterday franking the form lines as well. High Chap bred so we know she will get the distance and High Chaps have a better win rate on wet than dry tracks. Questionable form around Lizard Island who was horrible in the Derby, but the horse probably didn’t stay.
4. Ambience: Huge win last start at course over 2000m. Slowly run race which suited the horse perfectly… has a very solid turn of foot and most importantly is proven on a soft track. Breeding screams ‘I want this distance’. Key chance.
5. Honesta: Beat home Ambience last start at Caulfield off the hot tempo. Safe to say she outstayed her rival. Awkward barrier today but will get a sit around midfield. Three runs in a row she has been within 1L of a win but didn’t get there. Handles wet tracks.
7. The Grey Flash: 4 runs this prep and never gone close to a place. Struggle to suggest.
8. Muzyka: Was backed last start at Flemington but well beaten. Yes, she did finish off well enough but the bird had flown 200m before that. Have to improve. Barrier interesting.
9. Ritzy: Maps to sit on speed today, but they did sit her out the back last start from a reasonable barrier. Previous runs have been on or just off the speed. If leads, don’t exactly expect a furious tempo to be set.
10. Zarabeel: Well beaten both runs in this class this prep behind all the fancied runners here. Maps out the back or midfield, but has to clearly improve lengths on the last few runs. Last start did show signs that she can run a nice race but not winning for mine.
11. Dulverton: Went around a big price last start at Geelong and finished off nicely. Extra distance will suit but has to improve on what we saw then. Will fancy the wet track.
12. Princess Aria: Well beaten last two starts. 8 runs to date and failed to place in any.
Comments: I’m convinced that this is a two horse race with Sacred Eye the ‘JUST’ top pick from Ambience and both will be sitting just off the speed. We can get a very good price for either of these two horses to win currently with 2.6 units on Sacred Eye and 2.4 units on Ambience. This will be 5 units down for 11 units back ratio.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4
Strategy: Back Sacred Eye for 2.6 units. Also back Ambience for 2.4 units.
