1. Lucia Valentina: She ran home well enough in the Caulfield Cup from the back. She will LOVE the wet track today and this brings her well into the race back to 2000m. Can win.
3. Oriental Lady: Well backed the last two starts when ran well both times in easier grade. Step up again but should run well on a soft track. Has to improve and barrier doesn’t help.
4. Pondarosa Miss: New Zealand GROUP 1 WINNER over the 1600m on soft track last prep. Won 4 from 6 on soft tracks. Four runs this prep. Ignore first up over 1200m and ignore the last two on good tracks really.. she is going well enough and the stable have a very big opinion of her. Very well in here today.. won’t be fancied in the betting either.
5. Casino Dancer: Every chance really last start at Randwick and well beaten. Surprise winner two back on Good surface. Not on soft.
6. No Tricks: Been up this prep forever it seems. Nice enough run three back at Caulfield.. but last two runs have me not convinced. Last win was on a soft track… not convinced she is good enough.
8. Manageress: Hard to suggest she is doing a lot wrong this prep with strong runs the last five starts. Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Has the ability but does have to prove she is top shelf.
9. Ungrateful Ellen: Very nice type. Best runs in the past over a little further I would suggest is the only issue but she did run Winx to 3.5L over 2200m. Never run on wet.
10. Sure You Can: Runs very well at this course. Good stats over the distance. 5 runs for 1 place on wet a concern. Good run last start heading into this.
11. Lady Cumquat: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse… hasn’t won in Australia since early 2014 NZ win. Never won on worse than a Good 4. Not going well enough for mine.
12. Imperial Lass: Good win last start at Moonee Valley but it wasn’t the classiest race ever. Previous prep told us where she was class wise and it’s a step off the very best of them.
13. Zarzali: Didn’t beat much in Mares grade on Tuesday. Much harder this. Not sure the barrier helps either for a horse that gets back.
14. Inishowen: Over-race and never a chance on Tuesday. Not a horse i could ever back with confidence.
15. Spanish Love: Dead last when blocked for runs last start at MV. Well beaten previous run. Nothing this prep suggests to a win here.
16. Long Face Grace: Stable has a big opinion of this girl. Looked the winner last start but just didn’t hold on. Beat Zanteca two back which is solid form. Can win if there is a monorail.
17. Ring da Belle: Stable fairly confident of a nice run if she gets a run here. Going well enough on two previous runs and runs really well on soft… but hasn’t won in a long time.
Comments: The money has come for one NZ runner, but in reality, it’s the other one they should all be keeping an eye on. Pondarosa Miss is ticking over nicely and finds the wet track today she is crying out for having flown in last Wednesday. Settled in well and looks very well weighted here for a Group 1 winner.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 16
Strategy: Pondarosa Miss Each-Way.
