1. Royal Descent: Was never going to be suited out wide in a decently run Caulfield Cup and was pulled up a long way out thankfully. Look back to her previous four runs this prep and realise just how well weighted she is against this bunch today. Clear top pick. Rain would only help.
2. Solicit: Good run last start getting cheap sectionals on speed at Caulfield. Won’t get anything like that today with Miss Rose De Lago injecting speed into this. Take on based on runs previous few preps.
3. May’s Dream: Bet as favourite last start at Moonee Valley after a good run at course over 1400m behind Amicus, but was no match for Fenway in a only fairly run race… had every chance. Has to improve here.
4. Miss Rose De Lago: Huge win last start at Caulfield putting on a strong tempo and just kicking away from them… she is a unique type that just steals their heart. Good barrier will be on speed and bloody hard to run down.
5. Politeness: Will love the tempo that will be set today by Miss Rose De Lago out front. Will be out the back and running on. Massive issue is the step up from 1200m to 1600m and whether she has the same dash. 7 runs for 1 place at track.
6. Jessy Belle: Continues to find no luck in running this prep and with Williams onboard from a wide barrier, will need a miracle! Probably goes back and probably is seen running on again.
7. La Passe: Two wins in a row, you have to believe she is a decent type. Gem of a win last start with a rails run. Goes well at track with two wins from 3 starts.
8. Atlantis Dream: Disappointing the last two runs. Need to find the form of three back to measure up.
9. Abidewithme: Group horse over in New Zealand. Won a fairly good 1400m mares race first up but the last two runs from out the back (bad barriers) haven’t seen her get close… but they were still good Group 1 contests. Back to FM-GP1 grade but up 5kg… could sit slightly closer from barrier.
10. Vergara: On speed runner. Hard to suggest she is good enough to actually win based on 3L off Casino Dancer and 2.3L off Peeping the last two runs..
11. Amicus: Worrying signs the last two runs when you rate her best the previous two runs. Generally have to forgive for two runs… but even so she isn’t exactly well weighted in this grade. Does like Flemington.
12. Fenway: Horrible run on speed last start at Caulfield over the 2000m. Was very well backed that day also. Obviously has class… difficult barrier. Pace will be on for her. Is 1600m her FM-Group1 distance?
13. Slightly Sweet: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Will need to improve significantly to make this jump.
14. Azkadellia: Out the back wide and just beaten last start at Moonee Valley. Clearly going well enough to consider.
15. Stay With Me: Sat out the back, got the gun run and won with class last start in the Guineas. 49kg today, obviously well weighted but there certainly is an issue today with the barrier. Will need to make up 4L on runners such as Royal Descent the final 400m.
Comments: Early Twitter play on this when we got a better price, but I’m still more than happy to back the price going around at $2+ for Royal Descent to place. All the stats point to Royal Descent being the horse to beat.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 15
Strategy: Back Royal Descent to place.
