Flemington Race 8
Count of Limonade: Safe to say he could very little last prep to suggest we should be paying attention today. Previous prep he did beat a form horse in Prince of Penzance on a soft at Moe in Open grade which has to be considered, but with just 1 win first up in the past, it’s hard to respect this horse over the 1600m today at this track off 61kg. The track condition is the main thing in his favour.
At First Sight: First up over 1400m actually wasn’t too bad from the back when ran on for 7th.. clearly beaten but not a terrible run at all. Up to 1600m but certainly wanting further on previous form… not sure if he wants the soft track but it shouldn’t be a disadvantage IMO. Consider a minor player if the tempo is as strong as we think it will be.
Lord of Brazil: Backing up after an only fair run at Flemington last week… a repeat of the two previous runs… stable obviously believes horse is going well enough to warrant the run back in class with the wet track. If he is going to get another career win in this class, conditions couldn’t get any better.
Henwood: He ran very well last start at Caulfield over the 1400m when 3rd to Charmed Harmony sticking on with that hot tempo out the front. Back in class 60kg and wetter track… has the ability to win in this type of condition but certainly doesn’t win out of turn and just 1 win from 13 at track says alot. Wide barrier may see him further back than expected or much closer.
Majestic Duke: Continues to put the wins together. Won 6 of his last 8 races so it’s amazing to think they bet $40+ two starts ago on a wet track which was ideal at Moonee Valley after a fail at this course the previous run when overracing not ridden out the front. Won last start beating a quality field here and goes up in weight as a result. Wins are on the board and can continue with that form today.
Kareeming: Won 2 and placed in 4 of his last 6 runs… so has been super consistent as of late. Very hard to understand this move today to step back from 2500m to 1600m though… you have to respect the horses class and ability to win… but i’m not sure here at all.
Lake Sententia: Four runs to date this prep and yet to get within 6.5L. Horse had a year and a half off for a reason and doesn’t look to be turning around the form any time soon… much better than the weights suggest today but form suggests we can’t be on.
River’s Lane: Last run at course and similar distance was a huge priced win in January.. been running and running since and yet to get a win since that day. This looks a slightly harder race on paper but the horse has gone close 3 of his 4 4 runs and wasn’t disgraced two back at track either. Never won on soft.
Clanga’s Glory: Turned the form around last start back to Flemington. Last win was at this course and distance in harder company actually with 1.5kg less onboard deep into a prep as well. The writing is on the wall for him today and from barrier 2 you can expect a slightly closer to the speed run. Most importantly, Soft track will see him finish it off.
Stratigraphy: Continues to jump poorly and getting out the back which will have him out the back today with all the early pace. Will need alot of luck to be in the finish today. Has been running okay enough but struggle to suggest personally with racing style in this race.
Abbasso: Been putting in consistent runs this prep and had to go back in grade to Sale to get a win on the board. Step up in class today and weighted accordingly today… certainly suited by the track condition and tempo expected today, only issue will be getting forward enough for a handy spot… the ride wins it for him if he is going to win it today IMO.
Actuariat: Won 2nd up this prep over 1400m at course in 3YO class this prep… then placed next 3 starts in 3YO and 3YO-LR races in Adelaide and Melbourne. Barrier will see him further back than i’d be wanting to be today on such a horse in this class today. Certainly has ability and is worth considering, but the $3.50 looks horrible unders to me.
Pepin Hoaks: Not even going to consider him here today based on last prep and two runs this prep.
Yenhaab: English import looking for 2000m+… failed on a soft track (WHAT?!?) first up at Sale… struggle to suggest…. but Quaddie blowout target
Godfrey: Not going to be winning this today based on last prep class and first up run.
Comments: I have to take on Actuariat from the barrier today in this open grade today. Generally speaking, time and time again we see 3YO’s take a step up, go around as favourite and more often than not, fail to get the victory. I’m expecting the same again today from the tricky gate. Henwood, Majestic Duke and Abbasso all have claims at the top of the market around the favourite while Clanga’s Glory at the $14s being bet certainly has the writing on the wall to go close today. Clanga’s Glory finds himself 5kg better off against Majestic Duke compared to two back run has to be considered as a major factor and with the price of $14/$3.75 on offer, clearly the best priced horse in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 14
Strategy: Clanga’s Glory Each-Way
