Flemington Race 7
Self Sense: Old mate started the prep so well but back to 1600m then 1400m and didn’t find much at all apart from breathing issues last start. The old two runs off then back onto it again rule does apply for this guy today and looks overs at the price… but never placed at track from 3 runs a concern.
Chile Express: Continues to run well without winning out of turn. Last 20 runs for 1 win (Beat decircles that day yikes)… good place price but not sure he is a winner.
Lord Durante: Poor run last start at Bendigo but did run nicely enough two back at MV to suggest he is weighted nicely enough today to measure up and run a race. Barrier the issue.
Thunderbird One: 6 days between runs, was an eye-catcher from the back at Cranny and appreciated the wetter surface… 4 runs at this track for 0 places an issue though. Has to improve on previous form.
Majestic Duke: Back to leading last start at MV and got away with cheap sectionals on a wet track out the front and blitzed them like we knew he could. Has ability but certainly up against it with the speed in this race today back on the dryer surface. Minor chance.
Orientaped: Best runs recently have been on much wetter tracks and in easier company than this. Couldn’t back on current form.
King’s Dance: 4 runs this prep for two wins and two places. Bottom weight last start at MV and ran well enough out the front but wasn’t a match for the favourite. Up 2kg today but similar class of race if you ask me… only looks fairly rated with such speed in the race.
No Excuses Bec: Never placed 2nd up in past. Best runs have been over further in the past.. ran okay first up though.. has improvement to come.
King’s Palace: Only beat a fair field last start. Much harder today and others preferred. Poor barrier ruins it IMO.
Baron Archer: Shocked that he is 2nd favourite today in this. He beat what exactly at sale? Happy to take him on here even if he is a good type.
Heez Notorious: Never won first or second up says enough.. 3 runs at track for 0 wins 0 places… 6 runs at class for 0 wins 1 place. This is his distance but he looks outclassed first up.
Excitement: Slowly progressing through grades but certainly over stepping the mark today. Place chance at very best.
Rock ‘N’ Gold: Nice barrier today, ran well enough two and three back but Prince Rahy failed since and he was only fair to the line last start at Cranny.
Cisco Delago: Struggle to suggest him here today having only beaten Haiti who had to carry the world and failed to win the very next start (ran 3rd).
Sparkling to Win: Measured up out in BM-64 grade in the country and wasn’t the worst run last start 6th at course and similar distance, but has to find a strong 3-4 lengths today to be competitive.
Comments: With our best bet of the day Kenjorwood being scratched, this becomes a really difficult leg of the Quaddie to catch. There really seemed only 3 main chances that could match Kenjorwoods rating highs, but there are several horses that can match the next bests ‘current’ form high. I have to take the value in this one which is Self Sense. A repeat of 3 or 4 back runs and the horse is right at the finish fighting out a win at the $30+ on offer!
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12
Strategy: Self Sense at the $30+ is the best value in the race and i’m going to stick my neck out on the horse E/W.
