If money spoke, then it would say Fame Game had already won the 2015 Melbourne Cup, but that’s not how it works! The money has flowed in for the Japanese superstar since being nominated and flying out for this race. But like with any race, horses need everything to go there way to win a race and the odds being set suggest Fame Game only wins this race around 22% of the time. So that’s why we do the form – looking to see if the price set for Fame Game is actually worth backing and of course to identify which horses are the main threats to the favourite. We are expecting a Good track on the day and a medium tempo to be run in the race.
1. Snow Sky (16)- 58kg: Looks a natural front runner in a race lacking in speed. If they ask him to take them around, they may be shocked in the crawl they have to endure out the front with a medium to slow tempo the only option with top weight. Has a final 1200m consistent sprint to win this. Races best on the rail. Can’t understand the drift on this horse, Caulfield Cup run a perfect lead in.
2. Criterion (4)- 57.5kg: Never run over this distance coming off a 2040m run. Never run over 2500m in the past which is certainly a deep concern. Ran up to standard in the Cox Plate last start for second and we saw Fiorente in the past use a placing in the Cox Plate as a jump into a strong Melbourne Cup win. Has tactical speed in his legs to gain a place closer than midfield. I would expect them to use the inside barrier to their advantage. Top ratings over shorter distances good enough to win.
3. Fame Game (12)- 57kg: Nice barrier drawn today to get the position in running they want, not right out the back, but no closer than midfield. Was ridden to finish off well in the Caulfield Cup as an ideal barrier trial to this. Second in the Tenno Sho. First in the Diamond Stakes. Loves 3200m. Clear favourite and despite what everyone else is saying, the bookies have the price bang on correct under $5 is where the horse should be.
4. Our Ivanhowe (22) – 56kg: Drawn a horrible barrier today. Has been building into this run today and last start in the Caulfield Cup was an absolute gem of a run wide and just kept coming. Ran very well in the Japan Cup in the past and is a Group 1 winner over 2400m. Solely been trained for this race today. Has been training very well since the Caulfield Cup run, but drew a horror barrier for a horse wanting to get back and run on. Expect they will try and steal a position worse than midfield.
5. Big Orange (23) – 55.5kg: Surprised and shocked by the odds today. He won well at Newmarket over 2400m and then took the step up beating Quest for More and Trip to Paris over 3200m in the Goodwood Cup. He will be on speed today going forward from the wide barrier. He doesn’t have any turn of foot to speak of, but he will be battling home from a long way out and just keeps coming and coming. Started half the price of Trip to Paris and Max Dynamite in the Lonsdale Cup – doesn’t handle wet – and has higher ratings than Trip to Paris back home. Price is wrong.
6. Hartnell (17) – 55.5kg: Disappointing run last start in the Cox Plate for fifth beaten 10 lengths. Only run over this distance was last prep in the Sydney Cup with 52kg and he failed that day from on speed. Firmer track may just have him going better today than that run but his form clearly isn’t anywhere near as good as the lead into the Sydney Cup.
7. Hokko Brave (20) – 55.5kg: Just ignore the fact he even went around at Caulfield. Horrible barrier again is a massive issue today. His run in the Tenno Sho was good enough to measure up to this and he stays out strong 3200m distances, so if the speeds on, he will continue to come and come and come to the line. The issue is his work just hasn’t been anywhere near as good as you would hope for a horse leading into this. Has to improve.
8. Max Dynamite (2) – 55kg: Measured up well in high quality races a few years back then had 2 years off. Was sent over the hurdles and handled them well, but he was only able to claim a maiden with placings in group company over the hurdles. They decided to send him around in the Lonsdale Cup and pulled it off. 5 runs for 0 wins on good tracks in the past… runs okay on it but clearly best runs when there is rain around. Would have to repeat his peak run in the Lonsdale Cup to be a chance here. Good barrier helps. The positive for this horse is that he has a strong turn of foot and will be suited by Melbourne racing.
9. Red Cadeaux (8) – 55kg: Well beaten by some average types last start in the Geoffrey Freer over 2600m at Newbury. Previous run in the Hardwicke well beaten also. Previous prep obviously ran well in Australia in the Australia Cup then in the Queen Elizabeth for 2nd over 2000m but failed at Sha Tin. This horse just doesn’t run poorly in Australia it seems. Can’t see Red winning, but can see Red taking a place.
10. Trip to Paris (10) – 55kg: Drew well enough in barrier 14 for a horse with a bit of speed. Expect him to get over into a nice spot just closer than midfield. Beaten in the Goodwood Cup by Big Orange and Quest for More and failed in the Lonsdale Cup. Group 1 winner over 4000m previous run beating Kingfisher. Won the Chester Cup over 3755m also. Clearly stays for days and has a turn of foot as shown in the Caulfield Cup. Ideal type of horse…. but does look very short in the market.
11. Who Shot Thebarman (6) – 54.5kg: We know this horse gets the distance which is a big bonus. 2nd in the Sydney Cup last year and ran third in this last year. From barrier 13 last year he settled midfield, so from barrier 6 you have to believe he will sit midfield again, compared to settling dead last in the Caulfield Cup from the wide barrier. Looked an ideal lead in. Has the ability to win.
12. Sky Hunter (7) – 54kg: First start ever over this distance, a bit strange to see a horse who hasn’t won in Group 1 class or run over this distance get weighted into a race like this, but that’s what happens when you own this stable! Runs well on all surfaces but career peak runs have been on softer tracks. Does handle a Good track… best runs been at 2400m. Has to improve obviously on the last start run to be a chance.
13. The Offer (13) – 54kg: One time Melbourne Cup favourite last year, he measured up to win the Bendigo Cup last start but at the weights he is no chance to win in my opinion. Yes, he will get the distance, but he would need the rains to come and they aren’t on the radar.
14. Grand Marshal (15) – 53.5kg: I don’t have a large opinion of this horse at all, yet he did win the Sydney Cup beating a nice type in Who Shot Thebarman that day. His best run to date was on a Soft 7 track and we are expecting a Good track for the Cup. His Caulfield Cup run showed very little… Waller knows what his doing though. Will get a long way back from the barrier.
15. Preferment (11) – 53.5kg: No match for them from the back in the Cox Plate. Tough run. Weighted much better obviously in this race today. The query has to be how well the horse went over 2000m this prep and whether the jump to 3200m is suitable or not on current form. Will get the distance. Barrier 11, probably be far back, but wouldn’t be shocked if they sat closer to midfield from that barrier.
16. Quest for More (21) – 53.5kg: Horrible run in the Geelong Cup. Never seemed to let down and was never suited by the track. Back to a longer distance and a longer straight should be ideal for this grinder. Previous 5 races he ran first, second, first, first and second over 2400-3200m. Beat Max Dynamite over 3200m last prep before running second to Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup.
17. Almoonqith (10) – 53kg: Ran sixth to Brown Panther in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan to finish last prep. Previous runs saw a first in the Nad Al Sheba over 2800m. Gets better as the distances increase so 3200m should be ideal. Very strong win in the Geelong Cup to gain a run today and looks well enough weighted with 53kg.
18. Kingfisher (9) – 53kg: Measured up in the past as a good type. His Irish St Leger run was one to forget while his trial run wasn’t great either. His better runs this year are worth mentioning through with a 2800m win with 60kg followed up by 2nd to Trip to Paris in the Gold Cup.
19. Prince of Penzance (19) – 53kg: They have never run her over the distance in the past, but the way he runs out 2600m races and how he ran out the Moonee Valley Cup on speed. It’s great to have a female riding in the race for mine with Michelle Payne retaining the ride. 53kg, from barrier 1 expect him to be positioned just off the speed… if they don’t put much pace on he certainly has the turn of foot to put on a show… could shock.
20. Bondi Beach (18) – 52.5kg: Beat Order of St George in the Curragh Cup (6 lengths to 3rd – Order of St George then won 3 races in a row by 5L+ and they were good fields) before running 2nd in the Great Voltigeur at York and then losing the St Leger at Doncaster. Goes well on firm tracks and has some very good form around some very nice horses. Most importantly he gets in today at the lowest of weights and has a good Melbourne Cup winning jockey onboard. Barrier 18 the disadvantage… will try and get a spot around midfield.
21. Sertorius (5) – 52.5kg: The worst runner in the race. Shouldn’t be in it. Take it on.
22. The United States (3) – 52.5kg: Stable believe he is good enough to win. I have my questions based on all his runs this prep… yes up to 2500m he won very well last start, but he has to improve significantly on that run again to beat this field. Where do they ride him? Barrier 3, you have to go forward and sit say midfield? Never run this distance in the past so unproven really. Moreira a positive booking.
23. Excess Knowledge (24) – 51kg: Didn’t beat much last start in the Lexus to win over Zanteca – was lucky to do so. This is a step and 100 jumps up from that race. Even with 51kg, from barrier 54kg, i can’t consider.
24. Gust of Wind (19) – 51kg: Very good run in the Caulfield Cup with the low weight for 4th. 51kg again here but drew the car park in 19. Going to be ridden quieter today.. has the turn of foot required to win such a race, but has to improve again on what we have seen to date to win.
Verdict
This is the most unpredictable Melbourne Cup speed wise I’ve seen in a very long time. Snow Sky, Big Orange, Quest for More and Prince of Penzance are the four runners expected to be closest to speed today. Snow Sky’s best runs have all been when the tempo hasn’t been fierce so i can’t see them taking it on out the front. Big Orange isn’t exactly wanting a fierce tempo either, but you just know the big boy will be pushing the tempo from about 1200m out to make a solid staying test from that point, that’s where the horse excels.. Quest for More will be right along side him doing exactly the same thing. Prince of Penzance will be taking a sit there’s no way they repeat what happened at Moonee Valley. So as you can see, I’m stuck for a strong leader… but there is always one surprise. Could Waller send Grand Marshal forward? Could Gust of Wind take the advantage? Or could Lloyd send one of his runners forward to set it up for a few of his others? It’s an amazing race of tactics.
Fame Game is the best horse in this race and is certainly the right price in the race despite what everyone is saying (they said the same about Mongolian Khan and i said the same about Winx). Tactically I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get the horse midfield at worst from the gate to have every possible chance. Clean running and a medium tempo will have the horse winning. The main threat on paper is another horse with Japanese form lines in Our Ivanhowe. While everyone focused on Trip to Paris’ run in the Caulfield Cup, Our Ivanhowe covered so much more ground that they had to give the horse frequent flyer points. It was a huge run and you can just tell the horse is going perfectly heading into this with Group 1 winning form. Most importantly, the horse isn’t just a stayer, the horse has a turn of foot. Bondi Beach looks the clear X factor in this race. My only concern is that it may be just a year to early for this talented stayer. His run in the St Leger was brave to the line and while he didn’t win, the winner has clearly backed up the form since with a classy group 1 win. I also keep looking back to his Curragh Cup win where he held off Order of St George who then went on to win his next three races by 5.5L, 7.5L and 11L (Group 1). They beat off the third placed horse that day by 6 lengths. I think he will get the absolute ideal track condition today and it will be up to the ride whether he is a chance.
The runners at odds that stick out are Quest for More and Big Orange. They will be on speed and have form lines around Max Dynamite and Trip to Paris from group races over 3200m back home, having defeated them in the past. Of the locals, I think Prince of Penzance is a live hope from an on speed position and could surprise many with a gallant run.
Top Pick: Fame Game
Value Picks: Our Ivanhowe and Bondi Beach
Top Chances
3. Fame Game
4. Our Ivanhowe
20. Bondi Beach
High Chances
5. Big Orange
10. Trip to Paris
16. Quest for More
8. Max Dynamite
1. Snow Sky
Medium Chances
11. Who Shot Thebarman
19. Prince of Penzance
17. Almoonqith
7. Hokko Brave
2. Criterion
Low Chances
18. Kingfisher
24. Gust of Wind
22. The United States
15. Preferment
14. Grand Marshal
12. Sky Hunter
9. Red Cadeaux
6. Hartnell
Minimal Chances
21. Sertorius
23. Excess Knowledge
13. The Offer
